IMF to visit Dubai in coming weeks – Fund official

An International Monetary Fund team will visit Dubai in coming weeks to look closer at the economic impact of the Dubai World debt crisis and actions needed to resolve it, a senior IMF official said on Monday.

In an interview with reporters, IMF Director for the Middle East and Central Asia Masood Ahmed said the visit was an opportunity for the IMF to update and conclude its 2009 assessment of the UAE.

Dubai has been shaken by the debt troubles at government-owned Dubai World, which is currently meeting creditors to delay payment on $26bn in debt, damaging the reputation of the Gulf Arab business hub.

Ahmed said the impact of the crisis appeared contained after a week of concerns among international investors that the crisis could spread. While those worries have subsided, the crisis is likely to have longer lasting effects for the UAE and some of its neighbours.

Ahmed said from now on lenders would likely demand more financial transparency from government-backed companies trying borrow money on their own standing and would also call for clarity on the nature of guarantees on quasi-sovereign debt.

“Lenders and investors will want to look at their balance sheets, their profit/loss statements, their liabilities and assets, in the way they would for any other borrower,” Ahmed said on the sidelines of the Arab Global Forum, a meeting of the private-sector in Washington.

“In today’s market place, companies that provide financial information should be able to attract capital on more attractive terms,” he added.

Ahmed also said there will probably be a period of uncertainty around regulations and legal frameworks of sukuk, or Islamic bonds.

“That will need to be worked through,” he added.

A key tests for Dubai World’s restructuring process will the issuance of a sukuk by Nakheel, the real estate arm of Dubai World, which is due to be redeemed at $4.05bn on December 14.

Ahmed said it was important for Dubai World to provide creditors and investors with as much information as it could to ensure an orderly restructuring of the debt.

“There is no reason to delay action on trying to provide more information and clarity on the status of companies outside Dubai World,” Ahmed said.

“Over time those providing that information will be able to respond to the markets requirements and will be able to attract capital at more attractive prices,” he added.

Last week, Ahmed said the IMF was set to cut its growth for the UAE’s non-oil sector to significantly less than the three percent the Fund had forecast for next year.

“The UAE is much more than just Dubai and Dubai is much more than Dubai World, but we do think the impact of Dubai World … will hold back recovery,” he added.

Ahmed said the UAE did not need the IMF’s financial assistance to help it deal with Dubai World’s problems.

“The UAE has a lot of resources, and the sovereign wealth fund is one of those sources,” he said, “Exactly how they use their different financial assets to deal with the current problem is something I’m sure they’re working out.”

Asked whether the IMF should have spotted trouble brewing at Dubai World, Ahmed said the Fund had long identified the asset price bubble in the UAE and warned of its impact on corporations involved in the development of real estate and associated affiliates, as well as on the banking sector.

“As to whether the IMF can and should be able to get inside a particular company to be able to look at its finances? That is removed from the role of the IMF, and it is harder in the case of companies such as this,” he said.

Bolivia’s Morales needs cash, know-how for bold plans

Bolivia’s President Evo Morales wants to launch state-run paper and cement ventures and develop lithium, petrochemical and iron projects in his second term but a lack of foreign investment and know-how could hamper his ambitious plans.

Leftist Morales won 63 percent of the vote in an election on Sunday to run the energy-rich but economically poor Andean nation for a second term, according to quick count tabulations. Official results were due later on Monday.

In his first term, Morales nationalized the natural gas industry, the country’s top export earner, forcing foreign firms such as Spain’s Repsol and Brazil’s Petrobras to hand a larger share of revenues to the Bolivian state.

He also took over mining and telecommunication companies and launched a government-run airline and a daily newspaper.

The government has said it now controls 28 percent of the economy, up from about eight percent before Morales took office, and is eyeing a 40 percent role in the near future.

Morales is negotiating the acquisition of a majority stake in three power generation companies, two of which are controlled by Britain’s Rurelec PLC and France’s GDF Suez.

He has vowed to use his five-year second term to build large hydroelectric dams; launch cement, paper, dairy, sugar and drug companies; and develop petrochemical, iron and lithium industries to allow Bolivia to export value-added products.

Although the landlocked country has the second-largest deposits of natural gas in South America after Venezuela and massive reserves of lithium and iron, it has failed to develop a strong economy from its natural wealth and most consumer goods are imported.

Bringing know-how
Finance Minister Luis Alberto Arce acknowledges the government cannot develop large-scale projects without outside help.

“Foreign investors have two advantages, they could bring the know-how and the cash … (they would be welcomed) to invest in strategic sectors if they have an expertise that we don’t have,” he told reporters in an interview on Friday.

“We’d like to do it on our own, but we can’t,” he said.

Morales, an Aymara Indian who herded llamas as a boy, has said large-scale projects would allow him to boost social welfare programs. Cash handouts to encourage school attendance, to the elderly and to young mothers have reached 2.5 million Bolivians, about a quarter of the population, this year.

“Thanks to the nationalisations … we can pay stipends and subsidies,” Morales said in a campaign meeting in the northern Pando region last week.

Although critics have accused Morales of buying voter support with subsidies, Arce insisted they are spurring economic growth.

Analysts say Morales’ moves to give the state a bigger role in the economy have deterred foreign investors, preventing Bolivia from honoring pledges to increase natural gas output.

“They told us that the natural gas sector was going to fuel revenue growth, but instead we are losing markets … It remains to be seen whether there will be resources to finance these huge projects,” said analyst Gonzalo Chavez.

Between 2006 and 2008, foreign companies invested an average of $383m a year in Bolivia, less than half what they invested between 1998 and 2000. Arce said sales of natural gas to Brazil, which buys the bulk of Bolivia’s energy production, fell this year by 22 percent to 24 million cubic meters a day.

However, Bolivia hopes to boost natural gas exports to Argentina, thanks in part a consortium led by oil major Repsol, which has pledged to invest $1.5bn in Bolivia.

Morales last week lamented that the lack of foreign investment prevented Bolivia from developing an industry to refine natural gas into other by-products and acknowledged that he needs to lure investors to the landlocked country.

“How to guarantee these projects, how to guarantee investments, that’s the responsibility of the state. That’s another challenge,” he said.

Morales is a fierce critic of capitalism and blames foreign companies for ransacking Bolivia’s natural resources, but some analysts say he will likely to be less radical in his second term.

“The government … now wants to attract more investments to develop (the hydrocarbons and mining sectors). As a result, it will probably be careful not to adopt excessively aggressive measures that could lead to the departure of foreign investors,” said the New York-based Eurasia Group.

OPEC set for no change, oil price holds the key

OPEC is expected to hold output steady when it meets in Luanda at the end of this month, rounding off a year of stable production policy and of robust oil prices.

Oil inventories are brimming and any recovery in demand is expected to be slow, but international benchmark U.S. crude futures have more than doubled from just above $32 a barrel last December to above $76 now – roughly the level OPEC has said is high enough for producers and not too high for the still delicate world economy.

“The oil price has not been the cause of surprise for us for some time, so there is really no need for OPEC to surprise the oil market,” one OPEC delegate told Reuters.

More comments were expected this weekend at a meeting of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting
Countries in Cairo on Saturday, but no formal decision on output policy is expected until the 12 members of OPEC meet on December 22 in Luanda.

When the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last met in September, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters the market was supported by expectations of economic growth and able to ignore excess supply.

That meant the group could keep output policy officially unchanged, as it has done ever since last December’s announcement of a record cut of 4.2 million barrels per day.

In an interview shortly after the September meeting, Naimi went so far as to predict there would be no need to change output targets for all of 2010 on the basis of supply and demand forecasts then available.

“I think they are comfortable with where prices are now. I don’t think anybody is suggesting this is justification for a rise in supply. Equally, they’re not too worried right now about fundamentals,” said David Kirsch, director of market intelligence at PFC Energy in Washington.

Unofficially moving targets
The only change this year has been decreasing compliance with OPEC’s output targets.

As prices have recovered from the December 2008 fall to the lowest in nearly five years, OPEC’s discipline has gradually slipped from historic highs of around 80 percent in April and May to only around 60 percent of agreed curbs now.

Provided the group does not spring any surprises in Luanda, at a meeting hosted by the current OPEC president Angola, this would be the longest period of steady output policy since 2005-6.

Then oil prices had faltered to around $60 a barrel, but a long-term bull-run, begun around 2002 was still essentially intact.

The rally ended with last year’s record price spike to nearly $150 a barrel in July, followed by the economic crisis.

Fundamentals versus speculation
Now, some analysts argue, OPEC could face further price falls if it does nothing in view of inventory levels well above historic averages and the prospect of a seasonal fall in demand in the second quarter of next year.

Another view is that prices have been remarkably resistant given historically high levels of inventory. The implication is there is speculation in the market and OPEC should raise output levels if it wants to cap price gains that could destroy demand in a still difficult economic context.

Already leading exporter Saudi Arabia increased its supplies to some regular customers in December, industry sources said, although Kirsch estimated the increase was probably only around 150,000 bpd.

“Given that Saudi Arabia has already started to leak a bit more crude oil and has sent repetitive comments that it would not allow the market to run away higher, we will not exclude the scenario of an increase in the official quota at the next meeting,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix.

The backdrop of Copenhagen climate change talks December 7-18 has highlighted the risk to OPEC of a global drift away from fossil fuels and the Dubai debt crisis, right at the heart of the core oil-producing region, has served as a reminder of the continuing weakness of the global economy.

In an interview with reporters, OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said OPEC would have to tread carefully at the December meeting.

“OPEC’s policy decisions throughout 2009 have clearly demonstrated our commitment to the global economy and assisting in its recovery,” Badri said.

He also noted the high levels of inventory. In addition to brimming stocks on land, he estimated a massive 165 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were floating in vessels at sea.

“They (OPEC members) don’t feel that fundamentals are driving it up, so if they put more oil in the market now what good would that do?” said Kirsch of PFC Energy.

Lamborghini braces for tough 2010, China revs up

Lamborghini expects to post a roughly 35 percent slide in 2009 sales as the global economic downturn slams the brakes on spending from even the super-rich, with growth likely to pick up again only in 2011.

Next year will remain challenging for the maker of supercars graced by a charging bull logo, a unit of top European car-maker Volkswagen, though bright spots such as China may help salve the pain.

Chief Executive Stephan Winkelmann said on Wednesday Lamborghini was on track to end 2009 with about 80 cars sold in China – a sliver of the company’s annual 2,000-odd production but a market that should rank among its biggest in coming years.

Lamborghini sold 70 cars in China in 2008.

“It was tough, it’s still tough,” Winkelmann told reporters in an interview in Los Angeles before opening the company’s first fashion and accessories boutique outside China.

“2011 will be a recovery, but we first have to see, if the year 2010 will be another very tough year for the industry.”

Known for low, sleek designs and eye-watering top speeds, Lamborghini and rival Ferrari, owned by Italy’s Fiat, have remained resilient through past downturns. But the severity of the current recession has walloped their business.

Lamborghini posted a 37 percent drop in sales in 2009’s first 10 months, Winkelmann told Reuters. Executives nonetheless expect to achieve a full-year pre-tax profit.

It sold 2,430 cars in 2008 with prices ranging from €170,000 to €360,000 ($256,000-$542,200). In the first half, it managed a €5.4m profit on revenue of €223.7m – a drop of more than 43 percent.

Winkelmann would not forecast 2010 sales.

But “everything you see has been much worse than forecast,” he warned, referring to the industry and economic data.

Divine sound
All that gloom was set aside briefly on Wednesday. In a nod to the city’s reputation as a luxury motorists’ haven, about a score of brightly hued Lamborghinis powered their raucous way from Santa Monica through winding canyon roads to the suburb of Topanga, drawing envious stares.

Winkelmann and a number of executives from Lamborghini’s Sant’Agata Bolognese headquarters then presided over the low-key launch of a fashion boutique outside of Los Angeles, near the upscale beachfront community of Malibu, selling branded products from jackets and trousers to bags.

The boutique bore more than a passing resemblance to outlets bearing Ferrari’s prancing stallion logo, but executives downplayed comparisons.

“You buy into a brand, you increase image and awareness,” Winkelmann said. More are planned in future, but “in this tough economic situation we don’t want to push too much.”

Founded in 1963 by Ferruccio Lamborghini and now a unit of Volkswagen’s luxury Audi brand, Lamborghini will remain focused on investing in technology and matching production with waning demand, Winkelmann stressed.

It has hemorrhaged customers in real estate and investment banking industries pummeled by financial market turmoil and the credit crunch. But many are simply postponing purchases as the decision to buy a Lamborghini was both emotional and financial, executives argued.

In response, the company has scaled back production, sent workers home temporarily and negotiated deals with suppliers to tide it through the difficult environment.

Lamborghini boosted pre-tax profit by 27 percent in 2008 to €60m ($84.66m) on revenue growth of 2.5 percent to €479m.

Longer term, the company is making inroads into promising markets beyond its traditional strongholds of Europe and the United States, including Latin America, to continue to try and expand its fan base.

Winkelmann has said he expects China to overtake Italy as its second-biggest market in the next three to five years, up from ninth-biggest last year.

“If it’s going to go on like this, it’s going to happen sooner than expected,” Winkelmann said. But “I don’t want to be too optimistic.”

Hopes low on near-term China approval for Hummer deal

Hopes China’s Tengzhong will complete the deal to buy General Motor’s Hummer brand as early as this week appear unlikely to be fulfilled, with the regulator tasked with assessing the deal yet to receive a formal application, according to a regulatory source.

Nearly two months have passed since GM signed a deal to sell its iconic but tarnished Hummer brand to Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery, an obscure Chinese machinery maker.

Hummer’s CEO Jim Taylor told Automotive News last month he hoped a deal would be closed by December 1 but the deal needs approval from China’s Ministry of Commerce, which is still awaiting documents from Tengzhong.

“We have not received formal application materials from Tengzhong,” said an offical at MofCom, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“The Tengzhong-Hummer issue is not on our agenda yet,” the official told reporters.

However, Tengzhong said it had been in touch with the Chinese government since before closing the landmark Hummer deal with the Detroit automaker in early October.

“We have been cooperating with the government all along and have submitted whatever materials needed for the approval,” said a Tengzhong representative.

“There is little we can do at this stage. We can only wait.”

A MofCom spokesman declined to comment.

Rocky road
Chinese manufacturers are venturing on to the global stage with bids for Western brands to take advantage of a steep industry downturn, but there remain doubts on whether they can handle such deals given their lack of expertise and limited international exposure.

For Tengzhong, the challenge is even greater, as on top of turning around GM’s struggling gas guzzler, it needs to clear regulatory hurdles for a deal which runs counter to China’s energy efficiency drive.

Taylor, the GM executive who has helped steer the sale and will remain as the new company’s chief executive, was told that approval would take four to six weeks after closing the deal, according to Automotive News.

Analysts say the apparent foot-dragging by the commerce ministry suggests there are opposing voices in the Chinese government against the Hummer deal even though it is premature to ring the death knell now.

“Obviously regulators in Beijing can’t see eye to eye on the Hummer buy as it’s a brand going down hill globally,” said Boni Sa, an analyst with international industry consultancy CSM Worldwide.

The lack of details disclosed in the sales agreement, including the financial terms, also raised question marks.
 
“All we know is that Tengzhong owns the Hummer brand and the right to use the technologies. And that by itself does not sound like a good deal,” John Zeng, an analyst with consulting firm IHT Global Insights.

Hummer has its origins in a multipurpose vehicle known as the Humvee that was used by the US military. GM bought the brand in 1999 and its sales peaked in 2006, but they have been hit hard since then by a slumping US economy and higher gas prices.

Through September, its US sales were down 64 percent this year.

Spain’s jobless claims rise again in November

Spain’s registered jobless rose for the fourth consecutive month in November official data showed on Wednesday, and was seen edging higher as the recession weighs and a multi-billion euro stimulus package loses steam.

The Spanish economy is not expected to emerge from recession until next year as it reels from the collapse of a decade-long construction-led boom and plummeting consumer spending.

Seasonally unadjusted data showed Spanish jobless claims rose by 60,593 in November from October to almost 3.9 million people, almost a million more than a year ago, the Labour Ministry said.

The rise was less fierce than the almost 100,000 layoffs in October and around 170,000 leap in November 2008, the government noted, but should not be taken as a sign the economy will begin to create jobs any time soon, economists said.

“The November numbers were slightly better than expected. However, in general, unemployment in Spain is likely to increase further, but maybe at a slower pace,” said Giada Giani at Citigroup.

The Spanish government pumped €8bn into the economy this year to create more than 400,000 mostly low-skilled jobs in an attempt to patch the hole left by the paralysed housing sector.

The around 30,000 infrastructure contracts created by the plan will be completed by the end of the year, and with little sign of a general return to growth, Spain’s labourers are once again expected to rejoin dole queues.

“We don’t see the government suddenly withdrawing stimulus measures to help workers. But in 2010 we continue to see unemployment increasing with minimal growth expected,” said Silvio Peruzzo at RBS.

The government has announced plans to launch a new €5bn stimulus plan for 2010, but it will be aimed at sustainable long-term growth sectors like renewable energy, environmental tourism and new technologies.

Reform talks
While economists have called for wide-sweeping reforms to the labour market, the government has been cautious to make any major proposals which have not been decided through consensus with the workers’ unions and business representatives.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero outlined several areas in which the labour market could be streamlined on Wednesday and said tripartite talks on the measures will begin in the first quarter of next year.
But analysts worry that the number of jobless would continue to increase in the absence of urgent reforms and as the recession drags on.

Eurozone-wide unemployment remained stable at an 11-year high in October at 9.8 percent, official data showed on Tuesday, while Spain stood at 19.3 percent in same month, the worst in the 16-member region.

Last year’s sudden collapse of the construction sector has quickly spread across the whole economy and all main economic areas registered losses in November, the government said.

Data showed the jobless rate in the service industry rose 1.7 percent month-on-month and by 1.3 percent in construction. Joblessness also increased by 0.6 percent in the industrial sector and by 2.6 percent in agriculture.

Some Emiratis glad Dubai’s ambitious plans dented

Dubai nationals were alarmed by the fallout from the emirate’s debt standstill, but many hope the crisis may stem the torrent of foreigners into the conservative Gulf Arab city, where locals are outnumbered ten to one.

The freewheeling emirate, one of seven that form the United Arab Emirates, sent jitters through global markets last week when it announced that one of its flagship developers had asked for a six-month repayment freeze on some debt.
The global financial crisis over the last year has tarnished Dubai’s growth model – neo-liberal, East Asian-inspired and tightly managed from the top by ruler Sheikh Mohammed.

Construction work has slowed. Dubai’s debt pile is now estimated by Moody’s ratings agency at $100bn.

Most Emiratis say they are proud of the UAE’s global name, gained largely through Dubai’s glamorous projects such as man-made islands in the shape of palm trees and architectural gems such as the sail-shaped Burj al-Arab hotel.

But as foreigners flocked in, Emiratis were reduced to barely a tenth of Dubai’s 1.7 million population and their share of UAE’s 4.2 million total population is not much greater.

Radio talk shows and internet debate have portrayed the issue as a crisis in the past year.

“I don’t have anything to lose in this financial crisis,” said Ebtisam al-Kitbi, a politics professor at the UAE University in al-Ain. “As an activist and academic, I view it as an advantage for us as Emiratis.”

“There was only the sound of real estate here, and if you criticised anything, they said ‘you are against development’,” Kitbi said, adding that major trading families had their own commercial interest in what was termed the “Dubai model”.

Dubai was the UAE and Gulf Arab pioneer in allowing foreigners to own property in certain areas, encouraging wealthy Arabs, Asians and Westerners to buy into the dream.

The rulers and certain merchant families have been the biggest local beneficiaries of the affluence. Most Emiratis work in the government sector and some live modestly.

While foreigners cluster in the cities and luxury skyscrapers, Emiratis tend to live separately in their own communities, jealously guarding their traditions.

“Emiratis are relieved a bit due to the international financial crisis, but it is nowhere close to where people would like to see the country heading,” said UAE blogger Ahmed Mansoor. “I believe the UAE has reached the point of no return when it comes to demographic imbalance.”

Defiant tone
The tone was defiant during UAE national day celebrations this week, where miniature models of iconic Dubai buildings and Sheikh Mohammed’s book “My Vision” – lauding a “make the desert bloom” miracle – have been paraded through the streets.

On a TV talent show, the audience gave a special cheer when the name of the man behind Dubai’s “miracle” was mentioned.

The Dubai ruler, also UAE vice president and defence minister, came out fighting on Tuesday, saying the global reaction to the debt crisis had shown “a lack of understanding”.

Dissent has been muffled in a society encouraged by official media to go along with the runaway development brought about by their rulers’ policies. The UAE has a federal advisory body, but less than one percent of Emiratis are eligible to vote.

Media activity criticising rulers or harming the economy faces heavy fines in a draft media law waiting approval.
Emirati political scientist Abdul-Khaleq Abdullah, who signed a rare petition against the draft law this year, said the authorities were now keen to assuage local concerns.

“On a fundamental level, there is a realisation that this country has managed to cater to expat needs too far and they paid little attention to local, national concerns,” he said.

“They don’t want to get locals too angry. The state is one step ahead of a demand from locals.”

Foreigners are being encouraged to dress modestly, some were arrested for eating in public during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, and two Britons were tried last year for engaging in sexual activity out of wedlock and in public.
The foreigner majority is even cited in UAE domestic discussion as a reason for avoiding democracy, since that could encourage long-term residents to demand a say in governance.

“It’s safer to have 90 percent of the population as foreigners, as long as locals can have some kind of elite status,” said British historian Christopher Davidson, adding that Dubai paid only lip service to controlling expat inflow.

Siemens settles case with von Pierer – sources

Siemens AG has struck a deal with former Chairman Heinrich von Pierer on payments for part of costs of a corruption case, paving the way for an amicable ending to the biggest bribery scandal in the country.

Two sources familiar with the matter told reporters on Tuesday that Siemens has agreed to reduce the amount von Pierer would pay as compensation for damages which the world’s largest maker of industrial automation equipment had suffered as a result of the corruption case.

Two sources said Siemens had agreed in principle to reduce its demand from von Pierer to more than €4m from the original €6m.

Von Pierer was not accused of crimes and he denied any wrongdoing.

Siemens had agreed in December to pay more than $1.3bn to settle corruption probes in the US and Germany, ending two years of controversy that rocked the German engineering conglomerate.

Analysts said failure to reach an agreement would have forced the company to take von Pierer – called “Mr Siemens” during his heyday – to court over the damages.

Siemens had said it had spent around €2.5bn on lawyers’ fees, settlements with US authorities and tax penalties.

It had said it wanted to claim damages from 11 former top managers, including von Pierer, for failing to stop illegal practices and bribery at the company.

“If it goes to court, the image of Siemens would be affected. You would have this string of bad stories,” said one analyst who did not want to be identified.

German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said in a statement ahead of its Wednesday edition that von Pierer would pay €5m in installments.

Former CEO Klaus Kleinfeld, now Chief Executive of Alcoa Inc, as well as former Siemens board members Johannes Feldmayer, Juergen Radomski and Uriel Sharef have also agreed to make payments to Siemens, the daily added, citing sources.

Kleinfeld is to pay €2m, it said.

The sources said Siemens’ supervisory board, which is due to meet tomorrow, would have to formally approve the agreement.

Von Pierer’s lawyer declined to comment, as did Siemens.

A tale of two American economies

But official measures of GDP may grossly overstate growth in the economy as they don’t capture the fact that business sentiment among small firms is abysmal and their output is still falling sharply. Third quarter GDP – properly corrected for these factors – may have been two percent rather than 3.5 percent.

The story of the US is, indeed, one of two economies.  There is a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn.

Consider the following facts. While America’s official unemployment rate is already 10.2 percent, the figure jumps to a whopping 17.5 percent when discouraged workers and partially employed workers are included. And, while data from firms suggest that job losses in the last three months were about 600,000, household surveys, which include self-employed workers and small entrepreneurs, suggest that those losses were above two million.

Moreover, the total effect on labor income – the product of jobs times hours worked times average hourly wages – has been more severe than that implied by the job losses alone, because many firms are cutting their workers’ hours, placing them on furlough, or lowering their wages as a way to share the pain.

Many of the lost jobs – in construction, finance, and outsourced manufacturing and services – are gone forever, and recent studies suggest that a quarter of US jobs can be fully outsourced over time to other countries. Thus, a growing proportion of the workforce – often below the radar screen of official statistics – is losing hope of finding gainful employment, while the unemployment rate (especially for poor, unskilled workers) will remain high for a much longer period of time than in previous recessions.

Consider also the credit markets. Prime borrowers with good credit scores and investment-grade firms are not experiencing a credit crunch at this point, as the former have access to mortgages and consumer credit while the latter have access to bond and equity markets.

But non-prime borrowers – about one-third of US households – do not have much access to mortgages and credit cards. They live from paycheck to paycheck – often a shrinking paycheck, owing to the decline in hourly wages and hours worked. And the credit crunch for non-investment-grade firms and smaller firms, which rely mostly on access to bank loans rather than capital markets, is still severe.

Or consider bankruptcies and defaults by households and firms. Larger firms – even those with large debt problems – can refinance their excessive liabilities in court or out of court; but an unprecedented number of small businesses are going bankrupt. The same holds for households, with millions of weaker and poorer borrowers defaulting on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and other forms of consumer credit.

Consider also what is happening to private consumption and retail sales. Recent monthly figures suggest a pick-up in retail sales. But, because the official statistics capture mostly sales by larger retailers and exclude the fall in sales by hundreds of thousands of smaller stores and businesses that have failed, consumption looks better than it really is.
And, while higher-income and wealthier households have a buffer of savings to smooth consumption and avoid having to increase savings, most lower-income households must save more, as banks and other lenders cut back on home-equity loans and lower limits on credit cards. As a result, the household savings rate has risen from zero to four percent of disposable income. But it must rise further, to eight percent, in order to reduce the high leverage of household sector.

To be sure, the US government is increasing its budget deficits to put a floor under demand. But most state and local governments that have experienced a collapse in tax revenues must sharply retrench spending by firing policemen, teachers, and firefighters while also cutting welfare benefits and social services for the poor. Many state and local governments in poorer regions of the country are at risk of bankruptcy unless the federal government undertakes a massive bailout of their finances.

Moreover, income and wealth inequality is rising again: poorer households are at greater risk of unemployment, falling wages, or reductions in hours worked, all leading to lower labour income, whereas on Wall Street outrageous bonuses have returned with a vengeance. With the stock market rising while home prices are still falling, the wealthy are becoming richer, while the middle class and the poor – whose main wealth is a home rather than equities – are becoming poorer and being saddled with an unsustainable debt burden.

So, while the US may technically be close to the end of a severe recession, most of America is facing a near-depression. Little wonder, then, that few Americans believe that what walks like a duck and quacks like a duck is actually the phoenix of recovery.

Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com).

© Project Syndicate 1995–2009

Escaping the fossil fuel trap

Worst of all, they carry large and unsustainable costs in terms of carbon emissions. Indeed, their contribution to rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere is beginning to overshadow the other problems.

But use of fossil fuels, and hence higher CO2 emissions, seems to go hand in hand with growth. This is the central problem confronting the world as it seeks to forge a framework to combat climate change. Compared to the advanced countries, the developing world now has both low per capita incomes and low per capita levels of carbon emissions. Imposing severe restrictions on the growth of their emissions growth would impede their GDP growth and severely curtail their ability to climb out of poverty.

The developing world also has a serious fairness objection to paying for climate-change mitigation. The advanced countries are collectively responsible for much of the current stock of carbon in the atmosphere, as well as for a significant (though declining) share of the world’s annual emissions. As a consequence, the developing world’s representatives argue, the advanced countries should take responsibility for the problem.

But a simple shift of responsibility to the advanced countries by exempting developing countries from the mitigation process will not work. To be successful, a strategy of fighting climate change must be not only fair, but also effective.

If developing countries are allowed to grow, and there is no corresponding mitigation of the growth in their carbon emissions, average per capita CO2 emissions around the world will nearly double in the next 50 years, to roughly four times the safe level, regardless of what advanced countries do.

Advanced countries by themselves simply cannot ensure that safe global CO2  levels are reached. Just waiting for the high-growth developing countries to catch up with the advanced countries is even less of a solution.

So the world’s major challenge is to devise a strategy that encourages growth in the developing world, but on a path that approaches safe global carbon-emission levels by mid-century.

The way to achieve this is to decouple the question of who pays for most efforts to mitigate climate change from the question of where, geographically, these efforts take place. In other words, if the advanced countries absorb mitigation costs in the short run, while mitigation efforts lower emissions growth in developing countries, the conflict between developing countries’ growth and success in limiting global emissions may be reconciled – or at least substantially reduced.

These considerations suggest that no emission-reduction targets should be imposed on developing countries until they approach per capita GDP levels comparable to those in advanced countries. While such targets should be self-imposed by advanced countries, they should be allowed to fulfill their obligations, at least in part, by paying to reduce emissions in developing countries (where such efforts may yield greater benefits).

A crucial corollary of this strategy is large-scale technology transfer to developing countries, allowing them both to grow and to curtail their emissions. The closer these countries get to being included in the system of restrictions, the greater incentive they will have to make their own additional investments to mitigate their emissions.

The world has already accepted the basic principle that the rich should bear more of the cost of mitigating climate change. The Kyoto Protocol established a set of “common but differentiated responsibilities” that imply asymmetric roles for advanced and developing countries, with the obligations of developing countries evolving as they grow.

The ingredients for such a grand bargain are fairly clear. The advanced countries will be asked to reduce their CO2 emissions at a substantial rate, while emissions in developing countries can rise to allow for rapid, catch-up economic growth. The goal is not to prevent developing countries’ growth-related emissions, but to slow their rise and eventually reverse them as these countries become richer.

The best way to implement this strategy is to use a “carbon credit trading system” in the advanced countries, with each advanced country receiving a certain amount of carbon credits to determine its permissible emission levels. If a country exceeds its level of emissions, it must buy additional credits from other countries that achieve emissions lower than their permitted levels. But an advanced country could also undertake mitigation efforts in the developing world and thus earn additional credits equal to the full value of its mitigation efforts (thus allowing more emissions at home).

Such a system would trigger entrepreneurial searches for low-cost mitigation opportunities in developing countries, because rich countries would want to pay less by lowering emissions abroad. As a result, mitigation would become more efficient, and the same expenditures by advanced countries would produce higher global emission reductions.

As for developing countries, while they would not have explicit credits or targets until they graduate to advanced-country status, they would know that at some point (say, when their carbon emissions reach the average level of advanced countries) they would be included in the global system of restrictions. This would provide them with an incentive even before that point to make decisions concerning energy pricing and efficiency that would reduce the growth of their emissions without impeding economic growth, and thus extend the period during which their emission levels remain unrestricted.

Conflict between advanced and developing countries over responsibility for mitigating carbon emissions should not be allowed to undermine prospects for a global agreement. A fair solution is as complex as the challenge of climate change itself, but it is certainly possible.

Michael Spence is the 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Professor Emeritus, Stanford University. He chairs the Commission on Growth and Development.

© Project Syndicate 1995–2009

Uganda poised to become top-50 oil producer

A deal last week has brought Uganda a step closer to becoming a significant oil producer, offering billions of dollars of fresh investment to develop newly discovered oilfields.

Italian energy giant Eni said on Monday it had agreed to buy a stake in two large oil exploration blocks in Uganda for up to $1.5bn.

For a decade, exploration in the land-locked former British colony has been carried out by a handful of independent oil companies who have drilled a series of successful wells but who lack the large amounts of capital or expertise on their own to bring the local oil industry to its full potential.

The entry of Eni, an integrated oil company with enough cash to build pipelines, terminals and refining capacity, heralds an escalation of development, which analysts say is likely to make Uganda one of the top-50 oil producers by 2015.

“Eni has done its homework on Uganda and is very keen,” said Thomas Pearmain, African energy analyst at IHS Global Insight.

“To develop these resources is going to require multiple billions of dollars in investments, and Eni would not want access to Uganda’s oil if the prospects were not good.”

“Scratching the surface”
Oil was first discovered in the region in the 1920s in the Albertine Graben – the northern most part of the East Africa Rift system – and the first well was sunk in 1938. But World War Two and political instability in Uganda between 1940 and the 1980s meant there was limited exploration.

The search for hydrocarbons began in earnest in the 1990s after a return to political and economic stability following President Yoweri Museveni’s ascent to power.

Uganda now has nine exploration blocks from its northern border with Sudan through Lake Albert on the western border with the Democratic Republic of Congo and south to Lake George.

Exploratory wells have had remarkable success finding oil, especially around Lake Albert, where British independent explorer Tullow Oil has been drilling.

Tullow Vice President for Africa business Tim O’Hanlon says the company’s blocks in the country have the potential for reserves of over two billion barrels of oil and some analysts believe this could be a conservative estimate.

“They have just been scratching the surface so far,” said Pearmain. “Results have been very successful. All but one of 25 wells has found oil or gas — an amazing strike rate. And there is a lot of acreage that has not yet been touched.”
Only about a third of Uganda’s licensed oil exploration areas have yet been explored and geologists see huge potential.

“Apart from the reserves discovered already, there is talk that Uganda is sitting on about another six billion barrels, on top of the two billion barrels already confirmed,” said one fund manager who invests in energy projects in Uganda.

“Conservative”
“Some of the investment community believes Uganda has the potential for much more substantial reserves than have already been discovered. The oil companies are being very conservative,” said the fund manager, who declined to be identified.

Uganda has already attracted around $500m in exploration investment but it will take billions more to bring on the oilfields already identified.

Eni, which is buying a 50 percent interest in blocks 1 and 3A around Lake Albert from explorer Heritage Oil, is expected to build a pipeline eastwards from the lake, possibly to the Kenyan port of Mombasa, the nearest harbour 1,300 km (813 miles) away and a potential export centre for Ugandan oil.

The costs will be high. The pipeline will need to be heated as the oil is waxy and the Ugandan government also wants a refinery to be built to feed growing local consumption that is now supplied by imports from Kenya.

Tullow is building specially designed and engineered rigs to drill in Lake Albert, also an enormously costly exercise.
But the investment should pay dividends. Analysts see Uganda producing 100,000-150,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2015, putting it on a par with some other African producers such as Chad.

Tom Cargill, Africa programme coordinator at London think tank Chatham House, says the cost of building infrastructure is likely to limit returns for Eni and the other oil companies in the country but sees good long to medium-term returns.

“It will squeeze margins but if you are a large enough operation it will still be an attractive proposition,” he said.
“Uganda is a reasonable mid-level prospect and I’ve not seen anything that suggests we are being misled on the resources there. If the financing and the correct deal can be put in place, the prospects are positive.”

Honduras coup tensions take toll on economy


Business was bad in Honduras even
before the president was ousted in a June coup, unleashing months of political
turmoil that have deepened the impoverished country’s economic woes.


Honduras was already suffering from the recession in the US, its top
trade partner, due to slack demand for its key clothing exports and a plunge in
the amount of cash being sent home by relatives.


And while Central American neighbours show
signs of recovery from the global slowdown, Honduras’s economy is shrinking at
an annual rate of more than 3 percent as nervous tourists shun the country and
shoppers tighten their purse strings.


“Sales have fallen something rotten
since the coup,” said fruit seller Ana Julia Varela, 45, at the capital’s
Jacaleapa market. “I’ve been in this market for 30 years and it’s never
been like this. We just want peace so our sales pick up.”

A de facto government is running the coffee
and textile producing nation as campaigning for a disputed presidential vote
gathers pace, and a US-led deal to end the five-month political crisis is in
tatters.


FDI plunged 42 percent in the first half of
the year to $251.7m and economic analysts say it will likely fall further as
investors freeze plans due to the lingering uncertainty.


“The situation in Honduras is hampering its ability to move
forward,” said Jose Antonio Cordero, an economist at the Washington-based
Centre for Economic and Policy Research who has written a recent report on Honduras.


“If there hadn’t been this political
instability, the government might have been able to apply corrective measures
such as a more evident and decisive fiscal stimulus package,” he added.

 

Travel
warning

Tourists are staying away, particularly US visitors put
off by a state department travel warning that urges “extreme
caution.”


“There’s no denying it’s affected us,
mainly because of the drop in American visitors,” said Sandra Guerra of
the Copan
tourism chamber. “In July we had a tremendous decline of 70 percent (but)
now things are starting to pick up a bit.”

In an effort to boost flagging sales,
managers at one of Tegucigalpa‘s
biggest shopping malls have put up the Christmas decorations early and stores
are cutting prices.


Trade with neighbouring countries is also
suffering as their governments refuse to recognise the de facto government,
complicating customs procedures for agricultural goods, although coffee exports
have not been disrupted by the crisis.


Main coffee areas were not the scene of
roadblock protests meaning beans have been able to arrive at port as usual.

“Tourism and intra-regional trade have
been worse affected because by not recognizing the government of (de facto
leader Roberto) Micheletti, we can’t resolve any problems,” said Juan
Daniel Aleman, secretary general of the El Salvador-based Central American
Integration System, or SICA.


Meanwhile, health and welfare programmes
are suffering due to a freeze on aid by the EU and lending by international
development banks in protest at the toppling of President Manuel Zelaya.


Critics of Zelaya, who irked the country’s
business elite by hiking the minimum wage and forming close ties with Venezuela‘s
socialist president, Hugo Chavez, blame his economic policies for scaring off
investors.


Zelaya is urging his supporters to boycott
any election, but at the Jacaleapa market, stall-holders hope the poll will get
the country back to normal and encourage customers to loosen their purse
strings.


“Things are awful, really awful,”
said Maria Teresa Molina, who sells painted wooden toys and flowers. “I
imagine it’ll calm down after the elections. Let’s hope it all goes smoothly
because everyone wants that with all their heart.”

US coal industry stakes survival on carbon capture

A looming government clampdown on CO2 emissions is about to confront an already embattled US coal power industry with two stark options: capture carbon or die.

Legislation from Congress or tough new regulatory demands could make it costly to spew greenhouse gases, posing a serious threat to the nation’s coal-fired power plants.

With coal the single biggest source of carbon emissions, industry backers are pinning their hopes on technology to trap and store these emissions blamed for heating up the planet.

Carbon capture technology is far from a done deal, however. Unproven on a commercial scale, the process is extremely expensive and there are a multitude of safety concerns.

“Right now we have politicians making promises about the technology of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) that scientists don’t know that they can meet,” said Graham Thomson, author of a peer-reviewed study for the University of Toronto.

The stakes in this technology are also high for American consumers, who rely on abundant domestic coal for around half of the country’s electricity generation.

On the global stage, leaders from around the world will meet next month in Copenhagen to try to agree on binding international targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

With coal the source of 40 percent of global carbon emissions, talks on funding for carbon capture will also likely be a key part of these negotiations.

For American Electric Power Chief Executive Mike Morris, there is no question that this technology is necessary and feasible.

In his office atop AEP’s headquarters in Columbus, Ohio, Morris told reporters: “This country and countries of the world are going to have an approach to cap carbon.”

The US House of Representatives narrowly passed climate legislation this year that would limit US greenhouse gas emissions by requiring major polluters to get permits for the carbon they release into the atmosphere.
Although most permits would be free at first, eventually companies would have to pay for or reduce their emissions, which could possibly put major emitters out of business.

In the Senate, key lawmakers are working to craft a similar law that would garner enough support for passage.

If no bill emerges from Congress, the Environmental Protection Agency has taken steps to regulate emissions under the Clean Air Act.

First of its kind
One of the country’s largest electricity generators, AEP is spending money to match the rhetoric. Partnering with the French engineering company Alstom, AEP is pioneering a project that will trap coal emissions and inject the carbon underground at its Mountaineer power plant in West Virginia.

The $73m test project, which began fully operating in October, is billed as the first in the world that brings all the components of trapping, transporting and storing carbon together at an existing coal plant.

The company hopes it will lead to the first US commercial-scale CCS project, at a cost of about $670m.
Located amid rolling hills along the Ohio River, AEP’s existing plant is a 1,300-megawatt behemoth consuming 12,000 tonnes of coal daily at full capacity.

Using technology developed by Alstom, the demonstration project at Mountaineer captures some of the carbon dioxide produced by the plant and transfers it through pipelines to two sites where it is pumped underground.

Not a free move
“The issue of global warming control is a technology challenge and this project and others like it will demonstrate there is a technological answer,” Morris said. “But … we all need to realise it isn’t a free move.”

The cost of carbon capture will be high. Early in November the International Energy Agency said the world will need to spend $56bn by 2020 to build 100 such projects, with an additional $646 bn needed from 2021-30.

A report released by the Global CCS Institute in Australia earlier this year said technology development is caught in a classic “Catch-22” situation.

“The only way costs can decrease is by installing a large number of CCS projects worldwide,” it said.
Governments may have to foot the bill for many of the upfront costs. AEP has applied to have the US government cover about half the cost of its commercial-scale project.

The technology uses up to 30 percent of a plant’s power, meaning it uses more coal and makes less electricity for sale.
Even with advances in technology, consumers will still face some of the costs, said Franklin Orr, director of the Precourt Institute for Energy at California’s Stanford University.

“We’re going to have to charge ourselves enough for the electricity to pay those costs,” he said.

Safety concerns
Although hailed by US Energy Secretary Steven Chu as an essential technology, some critics question whether it will be possible to safely trap and store carbon for decades on the scale necessary to address global warming.

To make a serious dent in carbon emissions, billions of tons of CO2 will have to be injected underground.

There are also concerns about leaks from the storage areas. Carbon dioxide in high concentrations can cause asphyxiation but such accidents are considered unlikely. And there are also worries that drinking water sources could be contaminated.

“We’re putting a lot of our eggs in one basket, when in fact it may not work at a commercial scale,” Thomson said.
Other experts say these concerns can be addressed by ensuring that companies only inject carbon underground in areas that are geologically suited to hold and absorb the gas.

“I’m convinced that can be done safely,” Orr said. He noted that industries routinely handle much more dangerous compounds such as methane gas.

While there are many doubters, the march toward deployment of carbon capture technology continues. Governments around the world continue to offer incentives, and funding to trap carbon may be part of international climate change negotiations.

“CCS is the only climate change solution we have for the existing fleet of coal-powered power plants,” said Sarah Forbes of the World Resources Institute.

Instant warm-up: InstaForex Award

As a result of the upsurge in interest there are more and more companies interested in Forex, all the more under the conditions of the world financial crisis, as many other financial market segments at best stand as “air bags” and at worst, as high risk ventures. New players in the Forex market are not able to demonstrate dynamics of development due to the strength and power of experienced participants. Despite the evident attractiveness of the market for new players, ranking within the market remains a rather stable construction. Forex is still divided into three main groups: experienced players, who have been trading at the market for more than 10 years, “middle-weight” players appeared in the years of a relaxed competitive environment, and beginners with less than two years experience. However, there are trends dropped from the general outline in each settled order of items. The brightest representative of them is an international online broker – InstaForex. The company stormed into Forex market two years ago, and soon obtained the right to be called one of the world’s leading Forex brokers.

As many other newbies who enter the market, InstaForex set itself up as versatile broker providing a full range of trading instruments. Obviously, it is necessary to enter current Forex markets head-on and not with the minimum range of options, as the competitive landscape in this segment is close to its peak, if not already reached.
However, in contrast to the majority of newbies who announce a full range of trading instruments, InstaForex has been offering the full set of services which were highly evaluated by the clients since the first days of trading. All these show thorough and fundamental preparation of InstaForex for market taming.

Since the early days, InstaForex has offered clients a wide range of trading instruments and nowadays their clients use 107 currency instruments, 34 CFD on American shares and gold. At the same time the company does not limit the deposit amount. A client may deposit just $1. Traders may choose the leverage ratio from 1:1 to 1:500, two accounts types: with spread and without, instant deals’ execution, instant account replenishment and charging six percent annual interest rate on uncommitted funds. However, not only trading conditions which ease has already been evaluated by more than 100,000 traders all over the world, but also a number of other important factors predetermined the success rate of the InstaForex brand. InstaForex conducts competent and strategically regulated marketing policy within the framework of which the InstaForex brand becomes not only more familiar and attractive but also represents the symbol of success and professionalism at market. The matter is not just in the successful company’s name and logotype for the niche of the online brokers. The winning stake on the key word “instant” and symbol of human and technology symbiosis cannot be denied. Success of InstaForex lies in the additional options and services which are efficiently connected with the basic trading conditions.

Trading conditions
First of all, the system of welcome bonuses is worth mentioning. Having replenished the trading account with $100 and up to $50,000 a trader may apply for a bonus of between $30 $5,000. However, welcome bonus is an effective marketing instrument but it cannot make trade-smart client join InstaForex. For the experienced trader, who has changed several brokers, special conditions and guarantees provided by the company seem to be more important. In the aforementioned aspects the company is in the first flight and in accordance with some positions is a pioneer. Among special offers for traders the following instruments should be mentioned: VIP-accounts with spread from one pip, swap free accounts, system of equal swaps for Buy and Sell deals. Funds withdrawal directly to the visa card and segregated accounts guaranteeing 100 percent safeguard of assets are really unique company’s services which do not have analogues among the other online exchange brokers.

One of the company’s mottos is “InstaForex – the world where challenge gives a move (push) to development”. This motto is used in the programme of InstaForex campaigns and contest promotions, and fully reflects its meaning. It is difficult to find another broker which gives so much attention to the marketing events. Currently InstaForex holds two campaigns and two regular contests; every participant can win up to $3,000 and a new Hummer H3. The total annual prize fund is more than $250,000. Each competitor advances his/her trading level with the help of the contests and as a result increases the quality and efficiency of his/her trading, that again proves the truth behind the motto “InstaForex is the world where challenge gives a move to development”.

Not the least important component of a Forex broker’s success is its ability to create the net of partners and representative offices in different parts of the world and arrange efficient work of all its units. InstaForex deals successfully with this task, having reached great results which even old brokers would dream of. At the moment average net income of InstaForex partner is more than $3,000 every month. The number of InstaForex Introducing Brokers exceeds 140 in 20 countries of the world. Back on the partnership programme InstaForex offers six different types of partnership: beginning with Introducing Broker and investment partnership types and ending with the certified educational project or web-representative partnership type. Stated differently, each person interested in the partnership with InstaForex will find the form of cooperation which is convenient for him or her. Within the framework of the partnership programmes there are favourite terms concerning partner’s award and provided materials (website, promoting production, educational and guide materials, certificates, diplomas etc). Besides primary activity – online trading services – InstaForex successfully develops other lines of activities. Thus, for instance, InstaForex manages educational online projects like InstaFXeducation.com, a summary review of information about Forex and trading techniques; mql4.instaforex.com, devoted to EAs; and InstaMediaGroup, an advertising agency.

To sum up, it is safe to say that InstaForex bursts into the world brokers’ elite that is proved by bare facts: best trading conditions, more than 100,000 clients, over 140 Introducing Brokers in 20 countries. InstaForex is an example of the company which managed to become one of the market leaders for two years owing to the competent strategy and efficient promoting policy. The time of recognition has come for InstaForex. Nowadays, InstaForex is acknowledged as a top brand in Asia according to World Finance.

Maintenance from within

In the wake of the financial crisis, the UK FSA reviewed bank liquidity policies. Its proposals are not final but it is apparent that banks will have to operate under a more stringent liquidity risk management regime. Although comprehensive, the FSA review does not address the issue of internal bank funds pricing. Fund transfer pricing is a key issue.

Liquidity and risk management
Recent FSA proposals on the future of bank regulation emphasised inter alia a more controlled approach to bank liquidity risk management. Features of the new regime include:
– increased self-sufficiency in funding;
– a more diversified funding base;
– longer average tenor of liabilities,
– a “liquidity buffer” of high quality government securities.

These recommendations should be welcomed, and should be seen as part of a wholesale shift in the basic banking model, which hitherto had relied excessively on short-term and wholesale, undiversified funding. However, the FSA proposals do not address another critical issue in banking operations: how funds are managed internally. In truth, how banks structure their internal fund pricing can influence significantly the activities of individual business lines.

Therefore, it is important that a bank’s internal funding framework is placed under scrutiny, with guidelines enforced by the regulator where deemed necessary.

We define liquidity risk as being unable to (i) raise funds to meet payment obligations as they fall due and (ii) fund an increase in assets. Funding risk is the risk of being unable to borrow funds in the market. The FSA-prescribed mechanism to mitigate liquidity and funding risk is notable for its focus on the type, tenor, source and availability of funding, exercised in different market conditions.This emphasis on liquidity is correct, and an example of a return to the roots of banking. While capital ratios are a necessary part of bank risk management, they are not sufficient.

Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley were more a failure of liquidity management than capital erosion. It is not surprising that there is now a strong focus on the extraneous considerations to funding. However the use of that funding, including the price at which cash is internally lent or transferred to business lines, has not been closely scrutinised. This needs to be addressed by regulators as it is a driver of bank business models, which were shown to be flawed and based on inaccurate assumptions during 2007 and 2008.

Internal framework
While the FSA does touch on bank internal liquidity pricing, the coverage is peripheral. This is unfortunate, because it is a key element behind the model. Essentially, the price at which an individual bank business line raises funding from its Treasury desk is a major parameter in decision making, driving sales, asset allocation, and product pricing. It is also a key hurdle rate behind the product approval process and in individual line performance measurement. Just as capital allocation decisions affecting front office business units need to account for the cost of that capital, so funding decisions exercised by corporate treasurers carry significant implications for sales and trading teams at the trade level.

The price at which cash is internally transferred within a bank should reflect the true economic cost of that cash (at each maturity band), and its impact on overall bank liquidity. This would ensure that each business aligns the commercial propensity to maximise profit with the correct maturity profile of associated funding. From a liquidity point of view, any mismatch between the asset tenor and funding tenor, after taking into account the “repo-ability” of each asset class in question, should be highlighted and acted upon as a matter of priority, with the objective to reduce recourse to short term, passive funding as much as possible. It is equally important that the internal funding framework is transparent to all trading groups. A measure of discipline in decision-making is enforced via the imposition of minimum return-on-capital (ROC) targets. Independent of the internal cost of funds, a business line would ordinarily seek to ensure that any transaction it entered into achieved its targeted ROC. However, relying solely on this measure is not always sufficient discipline. For this to work, each business line should be set ROC levels that are commensurate with its (risk-adjusted) risk-reward profile. However, banks do not always set different target ROCs for each business line, which means that the required discipline breaks down. Second, a uniform cost of funds, even allowing for different ROCs, will mean that the different liquidity stresses created by different types of asset are not addressed adequately at the aggregate funding level. Consider the following asset types:
– a 3-month interbank loan;
– a 3-year floating rate corporate loan, fixing quarterly;
– a 3-year floating-rate corporate loan, fixing weekly;
– a 3-year fixed-rate loan;
– a 10-year floating-rate corporate loan fixing monthly;
– a 15-year floating-rate project finance loan fixing quarterly.

We have selected these asset types deliberately, to demonstrate the different liquidity pressures that each places on the Treasury funding desk (listed in increasing amount of funding rollover risk). Even allowing for different credit risk exposures and capital risk weights, the impact on the liability funding desk is different for each asset. We see then the importance of applying a structurally sound transfer pricing policy, dependent on the type of business line being funded.

Cost of funds
As a key driver of the economic decision-making process, the cost at which funds are lent from central Treasury to the bank’s businesses needs to be set at a rate that reflects the true liquidity risk position of each business line. If it is unrealistic, there is a risk that transactions are entered into that produce an unrealistic profit. This profit will reflect the artificial funding gain, rather than the true economic value-added of the business.

There is evidence of the damage that can be caused by low transfer pricing. Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Paul Atkinson in a 2007 report for the OECD discuss the losses at UBS AG in its structured credit business, which originated and invested in collateralised debt obligations (CDO). Quoting a UBS shareholder report,
“…internal bid prices were always higher than the relevant London inter-bank bid rate (LIBID) and internal offer prices were always lower than relevant London inter-bank offered rate (LIBOR).”

UBS structured credit business was able to fund itself at prices better than in the market (which is implicitly inter-bank risk), despite the fact that it was investing in assets of considerably lower liquidity than inter-bank risk. There was no adjustment for tenor mismatch, to better align term funding to liquidity. A more realistic funding model was viewed as a “constraint on the growth strategy”.

This lack of funding discipline undoubtedly played an important role in decision making, because it allowed the desk to report inflated profits based on low funding costs. As a stand-alone business, a CDO investor would not expect to raise funds at sub-Libor, but rather at significantly over Libor. By receiving this artificial low pricing, the desk could report super profits and very high return-on-capital, which encouraged more and more risky investment decisions.

Another example involved banks that entered into the “fund derivatives” business. This was lending to investors in hedge funds via a leveraged structured product. These instruments were illiquid, with maturities of two years or longer. Once dealt, they could not be unwound, thus creating significant liquidity stress for the lender.

However, banks funded these business lines from central Treasury at Libor-flat, rolling short term. The liquidity problems that resulted became apparent during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, when interbank liquidity dried up.

Many banks operate on a similar model, with a fixed internal funding rate of Libor plus (say) 15 bps for all business lines, and for any tenor. But such an approach does not take into account the differing risk-reward and liquidity profiles of the businesses.

The corporate lending desk will create different liquidity risk exposures for the bank compared to the CDO desk or the project finance desk. For the most efficient capital allocation, banks should adjust the basic internal transfer price for the resulting liquidity risk exposure of the business. Otherwise they run the risk of excessive risk taking heavily influenced by an artificial funding gain.

Conclusions
It is important that the regulatory authorities review the internal funding structure in place at the banks they supervise. An artificially low funding rate can create as much potentially un-manageable risk exposure as an risk-seeking loan origination culture. A regulatory requirement to impose a realistic internal funding arrangement will mitigate this risk.

We recommend the following approach:
– a spread over the internal transfer price, based on the median credit risk of the individual business line. This would be analogous to the way the Sharpe ratio is used to adjust returns based on relative volatility. It would also allow for the different risk-reward profiles of different asset classes;
– a fixed add-on spread over Libor for term loans or assets over a certain maturity, say two years, where the coupon re-fix is frequent (such as weekly or monthly), to compensate for the liquidity mismatch. The spread would be on a sliding scale for longer term assets.

Internal funding discipline is as pertinent to bank risk management as capital buffers and effective liquidity management discipline.

As banks adjust to the new liquidity requirements soon to be imposed by the FSA, it is worth them looking beyond the literal scope of the new supervisory fiat to consider the internal determinants of an efficient, cost effective funding regime. In this way they can move towards the heart of this proposition, which is to embed true funding cost into business-line decision-making.

Dr Moorad Choudhry is Head of Treasury at Europe Arab Bank, and author of Bank Asset and Liability Management (John Wiley & Sons)