Industrial activism in China is ‘a big enough issue’ says author Kerry Brown

Industrial activism in China – a decade ago this was largely unheard of. But now, as a generation of long serving migrant factory workers retires, the higher educated, more social-media savvy younger generations are less inclined to tolerate the poor conditions of their forefathers. But what does this mean for China, largely dubbed the factory of the world? World Finance speaks to Kerry Brown, author of The New Emperors, to find out.

World Finance: Well Kerry, industrial activism in China, how big of an issue is this? Do you think the Western media have blown it out of all proportion, or would you say it’s actually under-reported?

Kerry Brown: Well it’s a big enough issue for workers to get better wages now than they did even three or four years ago, and so there have been cases of successful activism, but any form of activism in China is problematic for the government because it sometimes creeps more and more into general political demands, and so there have been sporadic cases in some factories, I think there was one case for instance in the Taiwanese owned factory Foxconn where there were lots and lots of issues in Shenzhen, massive factory, two or three years ago people committing suicide. Real issues of well-being, and so they did increase their wages, and then there were other factories that also had to go through a sort of negotiation process. But on the whole, the government does not like organised activism.

World Finance: Well it does seem to me that industrial activism is perhaps more tolerated because, like you said, if the government doesn’t like something they can shut it down quickly. Look at the 2008 Sichuan earthquake with the school collapses and the protests over that, and more recently of course the anniversary of Tiananmen. So how do you think the Communist Party actually view industrial activism?

[T]he government does not like organised activism

Kerry Brown: They do sometimes act very pragmatically, but then there are other times when they can really send the kind of people’s armed police and the security services in and just smash activism. So there’s no hard and fast rules, it’s very dynamic, sometimes they feel that they can negotiate, and sometimes they’re very very hard. You can’t really come out with a particular template. But the one thing you can say is that politicians are mandated to deal with things according to a pro-stability framework. You must have stability, this has been from 2008 and Wen Jiabao, their leadership right up until now, you must have stability. So if you can’t negotiate, you will use force.

World Finance: China has also seen an increase in collective labour disputes in relation to mergers and acquisitions, and company restructuring. It seems during strikes in large western corporation such as the recent Wal-Mart closure in Hunan, most Chinese lay blame on the Western corporations, whilst the West point blame at the Chinese government for workers’ dissatisfaction, so who would you say is ultimately responsible?

Kerry Brown: Well Wal-Mart is of course a real cause célèbre really, because it’s not allowing unions in America or most other countries, I think all other countries, but in China has allowed the union because it’s a big market for Wal-Mart. And so this is, in a sense, China making multinationals change their behaviour globally in order to get access to this vast potential market. The government are kind of really showing who’s in control, making powerful foreign entities behave. But on the other hand you do get foreign multinationals who come in and are trying to introduce new labour methods and are trying to introduce best practice. On the whole, most workers prefer working for foreign corporations than Chinese ones because they think their rights are more protected. It’s terribly damaging, as Nike found out ten years ago when they were accused of having child labour and all sorts of things in China, it can very damaging if your name is dragged through this in China and you’re not doing things according to the rule, and on the whole the general rule is that multinationals will be more observant of rules and regulations, and maybe more receptive to demands than Chinese corporations, because they probably have more to lose.

World Finance: Well how much power does the Chinese actually have, and what happens if it does go wrong? In the West we have social security, but that’s not really in existence in China, so how much have they got to lose?

Kerry Brown: China has built a great economy over the last 25-30 years on exports. That’s changing now of course, since the crisis in 2008 when export markets dried up outside of China, but still a lot of growth comes form exports and that’s going to continue even though it’s more modest. So workers in that sense, who work in export industries, or even work to service the increasing domestic demand, are very important and potentially very powerful. The point is, how do they link up? Now the government union is the point where that would happen, but the government union is controlled politically and it’s a political entity. To have informal links between different workers in different sectors, to grow up like the union movement in Europe or America, this is still a very very big taboo issue, the government leaps on it, doesn’t like it, so in that sense at the moment workers cannot find the links with each other in order to kind of find strength. If they did, they would be very very powerful.

World Finance: So do you think this is perhaps where social media comes in, will this be the liberating factor for Chinese workers perhaps, give them a voice?

Kerry Brown: Sometimes it’s helpful in some protests. Again, probably ironically, on multinationals because they do feel they have to respond to their public image. Image is important for them outside of China for their shareholders and owners. Chinese corporations though, probably are not so receptive. Weixin and Weibo and other forms of the Chinese version of Twitter for instance, they can be powerful, but they are very well policed. If you mention certain keywords you’re not going to be able to spread your message.

World Finance: So how worried do you think the Chinese government should be about potential investor exoduses?

Kerry Brown: They know that the Chinese domestic market is an amazing asset and that foreign companies can’t easily pretend to be globally successful without them having some way of trying to get access to this market. Does China need investment? In a sense its need for foreign capital is not great, but in terms of its needing to meet the demands of its own people, that’s a different thing. So the Chinese government there knows that it cannot continue to have huge numbers of protests which become incredibly expensive to police and create lots of social resentment.

World Finance: If the worker gets more power and wages rise, how will this affect China, a country which grew on the backbone of manufacturing and cheap labour?

Kerry Brown: Most of the action now is about creating a service sector economy in China and also an economy which is more mixed, an economy which is more geared to domestic demand.

[I]f you can’t negotiate, you will use force

World Finance: And how concerned do you think the West should be about these strikes, do you think we’re looking at higher priced goods as a result of them?

Kerry Brown: The era of cheaply made in China is coming to an end. But then the environmental consequences of that were devastating too. So it’s been a little bit of an odd period, the last 20 years of outsourcing a lot of your polluting, cheap production to China. So I think that’s coming to an end, I think it’s still a huge part of what China does but it’s less and less important and I think most people now accept that sustainable development for anyone will mean that you’ll have to have higher consumption prices.

World Finance: Well finally, considering the strikes, how would you feel about setting up a company in China?

Kerry Brown: If you’re producing things in China to satisfy the Chinese market, and you’re able to deal with your competition domestically there, you should be there. I mean, people like GlaxoSmithKline, Apple, these high technology companies will have a future there.

World Finance: Kerry, thank you.

Kerry Brown: Thank you.

Barclays gets into trouble over ‘dark pool’ in fraud case

The New York attorney general has announced the filing of a securities fraud lawsuit against Barclays Bank PLC for giving an unfair advantage to some of its US high-frequency trader clients, while offering misleading information to their other clients.

According to the filings, the attorney general alleges that the bank was producing false documentation and misrepresenting its systems with the outward intention of protecting some clients from aggressive trading. There are further allegations that it made promises to seek out the best share prices for its customers buying and selling shares, but instead the bank took steps to maximise its profit at the expense of their clients’ deals.

This is the latest, and highest profile, case in a series of actions taken by the New York Attorney General’s office against traders and dealer

The lawsuit makes reference to a ‘dark pool’ of trading operations that allowed clients to trade large blocks of shares while keeping pricing information more private instead of trading at exchanges or other places where prices might have been more favourable.

This is the latest, and highest profile, case in a series of actions taken by the New York Attorney General’s office against traders and dealer. The actions are targeting traders and dealers that may be taking advantage of automated trades to rip off customers. Investigations have been going on for over a year, with efforts being stepped up in recent months.

“Barclays grew its dark pool by telling investors they were diving into safe waters,” New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said in a statement. “Barclays’ dark pool was full of predators – there at Barclays’ invitation.”

Dark pools were originally created to provide an environment where investors could trade without alerting the market. The US Securities and Exchange Commission have been investigating the potential for fraud involving high frequency trading in these environments.

Barclays said in a statement that it is cooperating with authorities, and taking these allegations ‘very seriously’.

US eases crude oil export ban, but denies changing policy

Following a four decade-long ban on unrefined crude oil exports, the US Commerce Department has given the go-ahead for two firms to export ultra-light oil to international buyers. The move comes amid emboldened domestic oil production and growing calls for the US to rethink its stance on exports. However, despite growing pressure from numerous parties, the White House insists that the decision does not signal any such change in policy.

“As the Commerce Department has said, oil that goes through a process to become a petroleum product is no longer considered crude oil,” said a department spokesman Josh Earnest. The department that oversees US oil exports has given the go-ahead to Pioneer Matural Resources CO and Enterprise Products Partners, which will from hereon be permitted to export oil condensates from the Eagle Ford geological region of Texas.

[T]he White House insists that the decision does not signal any such change
in policy

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 was initially brought in to protect against the Arab oil embargo and has stood the test of time unchallenged until recently, with new oil and gas deposits alongside improved upon extraction methods having boosted oil production.

Although many have proceeded to speculate about a change in policy, many analysts have been quick to point out that the decision much rather amounts to a change in commodity classification. Whereas crudes are believed to be too unstable for transportation, the ultra-light crude in question will be put through a stabilisation process and made safe for transport and storage.

“There’s really a lot of confusion about what this means. Really what they’re doing is clarifying what they mean by refined,” says Thomas Pugh, Commodities Economist at Capital Economics. “That being said, this really is a step in the right direction, although it’s clearly not going to lead to masses of exports.”

The US remains a net oil importer, though the so-called shale revolution has increased the country’s piece of the pie, and talk of the nation soon becoming a net exporter has gathered momentum. Experts worry, however, that lifting the ban on experts could see a rise in domestic oil and gas prices and destabilise the region.

Baiduri Bank soars ahead as Brunei economy prospers | World Finance Videos

Brunei was largely unaffected by the global financial crisis, and now with its healthy fiscal balance and low unemployment rate, the country’s economy looks set to prosper. World Finance speaks to Pierre Imhof, CEO and President of Baiduri Bank, about Brunei’s financial sector, what the institution is doing to support SMEs, and how technology is changing business.

World Finance: Well Pierre, how developed is the financial sector in Brunei?

Pierre Imhof: The banking sector is rather developed. Not the financial sector, because there is no stock exchange, for example, and a very limited bond market.

Although it’s a small country and a small country – there are just a few more than 400,000 people – they are demanding, they are wealthy, and therefore they’re travelled. They know what banks offer all around the world. And they are asking for a high quality of service, and a high diversity of products.

Banks have been strong, and have developed well in the country. But recently the authorities were a bit preoccupied by the over-indebtedness of the population, and they have taken a number of measures which have reduced the margin of the banks. And therefore a number of banks – mainly foreign banks – have decided to right size their operation in order to address this issue of cost with a cap on lending rates and a floor on deposit rates.

Banks have been strong, and have developed well in the country

But overall the banking system is doing well, and Baiduri Bank is also doing well.

World Finance: Well how is Baiduri Bank positioned in the country?

Pierre Imhof: We have been doing very well, thanks to a business which is developed around three poles. Our core business is our retail banking for individuals; corporate banking services to companies; and consumer finance.

World Finance: Well as a local bank you’re committed to supporting the growth of small- and medium-sized enterprises; how do you go about this?

Pierre Imhof: SMEs represent more than 90 percent of the companies in Brunei.

Definitely Baiduri Bank must be present in this segment, and Baiduri Bank is focusing very much on banking services to SMEs.

We have developed a number of products jointly with the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources, tailor-made for these SMEs, so definitely it is important for us to continue to focus and develop our offer to SMEs.

World Finance: Well your bank has a strong corporate social responsibility programme; how does this aid the development of the country?

Pierre Imhof: We have a number of initiatives. The major one is a charity golf tournament, which is the biggest event in Brunei in golf. And we are also sponsoring a number of events, or taking a number of initiatives, some of them driven by the United Nations. And definitely it is important for us to be present and to show our social responsibility.

Baiduri Bank is focusing very much on banking services to SMEs

World Finance: Well how would you say technology is changing the face of banking in the country?

Pierre Imhof: Bruneians are very techno-savvy. Mainly the young generation. So we are investing a lot in technology, and we are offering them a number of ways to access Baiduri Bank’s services using the latest technologies.

World Finance: Well finally, what’s next for the bank?

Pierre Imhof: We are well positioned in Brunei. We have been doing well. But Brunei is a small country, as I said. And definitely we have ambitions: first to grow further in Brunei, but also to develop outside Brunei, in the region, if we find opportunities.

We have recently obtained the rating from Standard and Poor’s of BBB+ with a stable outlook. And definitely this is for us showing the bank is financially strong. It gives us access to the international market, and it will definitely help us in our search of opportunities.

World Finance: Pierre, thank you.

Pierre Imhof: Thank you.

Tarmin discusses its unique approach to data storage | Video

Data overload may not be an obvious problem affecting businesses, but it’s become one of the biggest pitfalls stifling growth. One company helping others to rise to the challenge of data management is Tarmin Inc. President and CEO Shahbaz Ali discusses how Tarmin’s unique solution Data Defined Storage is helping organisations with data storage and compliance.

World Finance: Now, unstructured data of course has led to the overload I just spoke of; can you tell me how are companies being affected?

Shahbaz Ali: If we look behind the curtains, at what’s actually happening in data, it’s actually unstructured. And when we say unstructured, it’s that the data is coming from various sources. So you know, for example, a sensor in an oil and gas well is producing data which is only understood by oil and gas applications.

And if we look at trading systems, they’re producing a difficult, different format. And if you look at retail banking… they’re all producing different types of data.

How do you actually manage that? This is the fundamental problem and challenge that companies have, and it’s growing: 80 percent, much faster than the traditional data that we’ve seen from databases. And this is a huge, huge challenge for companies, moving forward.

World Finance: Are particular businesses more vulnerable than others?

Shahbaz Ali: Absolutely! Some sectors like healthcare, oil and gas, and financial services, are more affected.

You look at oil and gas, you know; 30 years ago, when you were getting data from an oil well, it was less than 1TB. Today, if you actually try to get a survey of one single oil well, you can actually see that this is going to be almost 300TB. Which is absolutely a huge number, in terms of just the data.

Some sectors like healthcare, oil and gas, and financial services, are
more affected

And for those exploratory companies, data is significant.

But we see that this problem is slowly beginning to affect all industries, including retail banking, for example, and the retail sector in general.

World Finance: So how does Data Defined Storage offer a solution to these issues?

Shahbaz Ali: So we looked at the industry, and nobody was actually focusing on the data. Everybody was focusing on the media.

We said we want to focus on what the companies are struggling with. And that’s data. Which is why we actually created a solution that we called ‘Data Defined Storage’.

And what Data Defined Storage allows you to do, is it actually allows you to reduce the cost of storage, where the data lives. Any storage, it doesn’t matter. It’s media-independent.

And the second thing it allows you to do, which is quite a big problem, is the compliance and security associated with data. Because in a lot of regulated industries – healthcare, financial services – compliance is a big issue.

And finally, we also want to monetise the data. So we want to get value from the data – for a healthcare patient authority, for example, it’s very important for them to know what sort of drugs patients are taking. And for a retailer, it’s very important to know what shelf space is actually more useful for consumers.

And also, you know, the approach to storage management, data management, allows you to tap into the big data, which is basically understanding the data. Monetising the data. If you understand the data, you can grow better.

World Finance: So is Tarmin’s approach unique, or are other companies offering similar solutions?

Shahbaz Ali: Tarmin’s approach is fairly unique, but you know, the architecture we’re actually offering is very much mandated by other people in a very different umbrella. Like software-designed storage, like object-storage technologies.

We differentiate ourselves from those people, in that we are focused solely on data. So from that point of view, Tarmin’s approach is fairly unique, and we’ve seen the Gartner Group, IDC, industry analysts like ESG and Taneja Group have already validated our approach compared to the approach from large players like EMC, VMWare, including IBM and other players.

And we are positioning ourselves in a different way for enterprise accounts and enterprise customers, because we feel that enterprise customer requirements the pinpoints, that really need the innovation to go into the data, to understand the data, and to actually comply with the data and also the requirements that they have today.

World Finance: Now how can you guarantee that a company’s data will be held securely?

Shahbaz Ali: So there are regulations. And then there are organisational policies that basically allow you to secure your data.

However, compliance is a driver that basically – it’s a very people-oriented function. How do you access the data? How do you audit the data? How do you know who accesses the data? It’s very important from a legal, compliance, as well as an HR perspective.

The current approach is again, to focus on the storage box. It’s like work on a storage box: you secure the storage box, so it’s secure. Whereas we believe that that approach is very old, hence the reason that our product, and our solution, allows you to integrate transparently into that.

Companies are now seeing the growth of the data is absolutely huge

We provide SEC compliance. We provide FSA compliance. We also provide encryption that complies with the federal rules of security provided by FIPS 140. And this security, when it’s integrated with identity management techniques, provides you with a very secure approach to data management, that basically isn’t available anywhere in the industry today.

World Finance: What’s on the horizon in terms of data storage issues?

Shahbaz Ali: Companies are now seeing the growth of the data is absolutely huge. And the argument always is that you know, storage is becoming cheaper and cheaper. It’s really the human cost that’s actually the bigger issue, in terms of operating expense. Because at the data grows, you also need more full-time employees to manage the data. And the significant problem is, how do you actually secure your data, that we covered earlier on.

And that’s also bound with compliance. For example in healthcare, the healthcare authorities have to keep the data for 21 years! You know, typical disc life is five years. How do you actually do this?

So this basically has to be driven by an intelligent software solution.

And finally, everybody is actually looking at big data. You know, they want to basically improve their revenue targets. They want to basically look at how employees are more productive in the companies.

This is becoming very important from a storage and data perspective. How do we actually handle that?

So I think this is what is really for storage industry and data industry actually lies ahead: to work with chief data officers, to create really innovative solutions like Data Defined Storage, that will basically address the customers’ pinpoints.

World Finance: Very exciting updates; thank you so much Shahbaz.

Shahbaz Ali: Thank you very much for providing this opportunity.

Banks brace for new stress testing requirements

Banks across the globe are preparing for new stress testing requirements, particularly those that focus on improving their risk management frameworks. Requirements vary by jurisdiction, but mostly require institutions to design and implement comprehensive stress testing programmes, including:

  • management controls with clear objectives and operational owners;
  • recommended actions for contingency planning.

A snapshot of the EU, UK and USA’s regulatory stress testing requirements

Source: Moody's Analytics. Notes: 1.European Banking Authority (EBA), European Central Bank (ECB), National Competent Authorities (NCA), Bank of England (BoE), Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). 2.Asset Quality Review (AQR). 3.Advanced data collection (ADC), Transparency (TR) and Calculation, Validation & Support (CSV) Templates. 4. Film Data Submission Framework (FDSF). 5.Financial Policy Committee (FPC); Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). 6.Bank Holding Companies (BHC), Foreign Banking Organizations (FBO)
Source: Moody’s Analytics. Notes: 1.European Banking Authority (EBA), European Central Bank (ECB), National Competent Authorities (NCA), Bank of England (BoE), Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). 2.Asset Quality Review (AQR). 3.Advanced data collection (ADC), Transparency (TR) and Calculation, Validation & Support (CSV) Templates. 4.Film Data Submission Framework (FDSF). 5.Financial Policy Committee (FPC); Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). 6.Bank Holding Companies (BHC), Foreign Banking Organizations (FBO)

The potential cost of non-compliance can be high. Banks may be required to take remedial actions like disposing of assets, issuing new equity, changing or eliminating dividend payouts, limiting leverage and growth, or converting contingent convertible debt.

Regulators want banks to integrate stress testing into their business management processes.  However, doing so often represents a significant challenge, as it often means enhancing data management systems, implementing stress testing analytics, and creating an enterprise-wide stress testing platform.

Greater focus on governance requirements
Governance has become a key tenet of bank stress testing programmes. It is also a qualitative measure used by regulators to assess the rigor, auditability, and repeatability of the banks’ internal stress testing processes.

In the 2013/2014 US Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review test (CCAR), all but one bank passed the quantitative assessment. By contrast, five banks had to resubmit their capital plans due to qualitative deficiencies in their stress testing and capital planning governance framework, analysis, internal controls, information systems and assumptions. As a consequence, these institutions cannot implement their capital plans, including increasing the payout ratios or capital distributions to shareholders, until an updated plan is resubmitted and remediation actions implemented.

It can be time-consuming to set up and execute a stress testing governance programme that enables oversight of the stress testing process, the construction and execution of a defined stress testing framework, and a single point of contact with the regulatory bodies. The generation of ever-changing data sets can become as much of a hindrance as a help.

To emphasise the importance of stress testing as both a risk management and supervisory tool, regulators have increased their focus and expectations on documentation, workflow, processes, and unstructured information. It is now expected that stress testing processes will be coordinated with other relevant regulatory processes, for example the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process. Such coordination can be challenging when operationalising a stress testing programme.

Stress testing framework best practices
Effective stress testing programmes require close collaboration among multiple stakeholders across the bank, in areas such as finance, technology, risk, audit, budget and planning. To gain an effective and consistent view across the organisation, it is critical to design an appropriate governance framework for both internal and regulatory stress testing requirements.

A stress testing programme should focus on automating and streamlining the workflow process across the enterprise, identifying dependencies, and maximising the return-on-investment by addressing key elements. We have identified some key areas banks should focus on when developing their enterprise-wide stress testing programmes:

  • Creation of a single stress testing programme board charged with the coordination and oversight of bank-wide stress testing activities.
  • Aggregation, consolidation and management of relevant data bank-wide.
  • Investment in dedicated stress testing infrastructure that automates and streamlines the process, manages data, controls and orchestrates workflows, runs scenario analysis, and automates the generation of regulatory and management reports. Minimise reliance on obsolete and inefficient tools such as Excel spreadsheets and email systems.
  • Comprehensive documentation that meets regulatory stress testing requirements.
  • Clear policies and communication practices that facilitate effective communication flows across divisions and business units, and support governance and control across geographies to adapt to international standards and languages.
  • Models which are appropriately designed and aligned with the goals of the stress testing programme at the institution, for example producing the needed level of granularity, and using the desired top-down or bottom-up approach.

A bank’s enterprise-wide stress testing programme must lastly be integrated into their enterprise risk frameworks and management practices. This step guarantees a consistent view across businesses, jurisdictions, regulatory requirements, and budgeting/accounting projections, at both a group and subsidiary level. Taking all these requirements into account, it is apparent that a bank’s process and governance framework for stress testing calculations and workflows are even more important than the calculation itself.

This article is taken from Moody’s Analytics Risk Perspectives™ magazine, which explores regulatory and industry topics to help risk practitioners make smarter, risk-aware decisions. To view the full article and additional insight in the magazine, please visit moodysanalytics.com/riskgov

Cayetano_Gea-Carrasco_-_Web
Mr Gea-Carrasco is the Head of Stress Testing Services and Advisory at Moody’s Analytics

About the author: Mr Gea-Carrasco is the Head of Stress Testing Services and Advisory at Moody’s Analytics. Mr Gea-Carrasco has extensive experience working with financial institutions on credit portfolio management across different asset classes, analysis of structured credit portfolios, derivatives pricing, counterparty credit risk analytics, stress testing (CCAR, CLAR), liquidity management and enterprise risk management. Mr Gea-Carrasco holds a BSc and MSc in Telecommunication Engineering, a Master in Economics and Finance and a MSc in Financial Mathematics, with distinction, from King’s College London.

KISCOL takes off as Kenyan sugar industry grows | Video

The sugar industry has enjoyed a profitable run in Kenya with consumption currently standing at 800,000 metric tonnes per year, and production remaining below 500,000. One company who has capitalised on the growth of the sugar industry is Kwale International Sugar Company (KISCOL). World Finance speaks to representatives Rajesh Pabari, Kaushik Pabari and Harshil Kotecha to find out about KISCOL’s impact on the industry, its expansion plans, and ambitious green fields project.

World Finance: What impact has KISCOL had on the local sugar industry as well as the economy in the country?

Kaushik Pabari: Kenya has a deficit as a sugar country, KISCOL expect to reduce the deficit and to increase employment. To give you a vertical example, we just started the project Mombasa, sold one truck every month. Now they sell a truck of the flour every day.

KISCOL expect to reduce the deficit and to increase employment

World Finance: In 2007, you started an ambitious green fields project. Tell me, how was it financed and how has it developed?

Harshil Kotecha: We approached a consortium of bankers, both regionally and internationally, and we nominated a syndicate leader for the bankers, that was PTA Bank and Standard Bank, who are in Kenya. They formed a group of about 12 bankers altogether who came in to finance the project. We have now reached 80 percent finishing the project, and we are commissioning in August this year.

World Finance: What is the soil to shelf concept and why does it matter?

Harshil Kotecha: It’s not known where the raw materials come from. In terms of KISCOL, what we’ve tried to achieve is a complete traceability. We will be growing the raw material in our nucleus, which will supply 75 percent of the project, and we will also be branding the sugar under our own brand. It will maintain stability and ensure consistent supply to all clients. It also will help to determine the taste of the clients, which can be traced backwards.

World Finance: What gives KISCOL a niche advantage in the current sugar industry?

Harshil Kotecha: Firstly, KISCOL is actually the revival of the collapse from sugar factory. According to the feasibility studies, the sugar cane growing should have been at the cost and not invested in Kenya, which is currently the scenario. This has caused Kenya to be one of the most expensive sugar growing in the region, and the consumers pay the highest price in the world. In this case, KISCOL comes to correct this picture, not only to grow in the right area, but to grow with the right type of technology, which is strip irrigation. We also have ensured consistent supply of water by ensuring we have adequate dams in place. Because the factories are located in the wrong region and they are high producers, we will soon be losing the market of Comesa, and all the chip sugar will be important. First KISCOL will help to shape this pattern and ensure that sugar is produced at a sustainable price, and in case we don’t have a market in Kenya we’ll be able to also export it.

World Finance: Now the local Kenyan sugar industry experienced some instability in the 1980s, how can you ensure that KISCOL doesn’t suffer the same fate?

Rajesh Pabari: KISCOL has invested heavily in studies to ensure feasible projects. We have invested in state of the art drip irrigation and to ensure availability of water by creation of dams and bore holes. The main stakeholders are involved in the project on a regular basis and we know the outgrowth are very important to sustain this project.

KISCOL has invested heavily in studies to ensure feasible projects

World Finance: Tell me about KISCOL’s expansion plans. 

Kaushik Pabari: KISCOL aims to have a set-up where 50 percent of the cane to the factory shall be supplied by the outgrowers. At one point in time, it will also increase its nucleus as opportunity arises. As KISCOL has plans to expand the factory to 5000 it’s important to also increase both the nucleus the outgrowth.

World Finance: Thank you so much for joining me today.

All: Thank you very much.

ASOS opens for business again after warehouse arson attack

ASOS has resumed trading following a fire at its main warehouse on Friday night. The online fashion retailer shut down its website while firefighters tackled the blaze, putting it live again at two o’clock on Monday morning.

The fire took place at ASOS’ Barnsley premises – where 70 percent (£159m) of its total stock is held – and required more than 60 firefighters to be brought under control. Police are treating the incident as an arson attack.

“This could significantly impact the trust smaller labels place in ASOS as their primary platform”

In a statement, ASOS said that neither the technology, automation nor structure of the building had been affected by the fire. However, they added that 20 percent of stock at the site had been compromised.

Analysts estimate the stock damage at cost price is £20m, however this could be as much as £30m at retail prices.

Asked about the potential impact of the fire, Anusha Couttigane, a consultant at retail analyst firm Conlumino, speculated that it could put pressure on ASOS’ relationships with smaller brands: “Whilst many of the larger brands ASOS stocks, from established fashion retailers, may be able to help by supplementing contingency stock, there will be a number of smaller labels for whom production means are limited and ASOS is their biggest distributor. This could significantly impact the trust smaller labels place in ASOS as their primary platform.”

The fire is not the first casualty for ASOS this month, as on June 5 the company announced that its full year profits would miss their forecast by 30 percent, causing shares to drop by 40 percent.

Still, Couttigane remains optimistic about the retailer’s future. “ASOS is as much of a cultural phenomenon as it is a retailer”, she said, adding that the firm had already been considering “having a more strategic spread of stock bases”. If ASOS goes ahead with such plans, this could protect it in the future if such an unfortunate event were to happen again.

Thomas Piketty: ‘inequality is not a problem per se’ | Video

In 2013, President Obama called inequality ‘the defining challenge of our time’. But could this gap between the rich and poor have benefits for the economy? World Finance interviews Thomas Piketty, author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century, to find out whether such a gap matters if everyone’s getting richer, whether we can reduce inequality with out losing the benefits of capitalism, and what politicians can take away from his book.

World Finance: Thomas, capitalism has lifted many people out of poverty, but does the gap between rich and poor really matter if both are getting richer?

Thomas Piketty: Inequality is not a problem per se. Up to a point, inequality is actually useful for growth and innovation. The problem is when inequality becomes too extreme: then it becomes useless for growth, and it can even be bad because it tends to perpetuate inequality over time. It tends to reduce mobility.

But let me say very clearly that I have no problem with inequality per se. And most of all, what I’ve tried to do in this book is to tell the story of inequality; the story of money. I’ve put together with many colleagues a vast historical evidence on income and wealth in more than 20 countries across three centuries.

But let me say very clearly that I have no problem with inequality per se

And you know, I am much better at analysing the past than the future! I don’t pretend that the conclusions I draw about the future are the only possible ones. The purpose of the book is to make these important issues accessible to everyone. Because these are not just issues for economists: this is of interest to everybody.

World Finance: Well as you just said your research is focused on the past. So how relevant do you think it is for policymakers of today?

Thomas Piketty: Well you know, historical experience is our best guide. But of course, you know, history always advances its own pathways.

The thing is, there’s a lot to learn, because there’s already been some inequality crises in the past. Certainly in the 19th century, during the first stage of the industrial revolution, many people were asking, ‘Why is it that we have all this industrial growth, and still have very low wages for vast groups of the population?’ And you know, children working down the mines at the age of six.

And this was overcome by a mixture of market forces, labour laws, free schools, taxation systems that can pay for better health systems for everyone. So there were crises, there was a response. And I am confident that I can also find a response to the current inequality crisis.

Which I should say is, you know, particularly strong in the US, where the rise of inequality has indeed been quite large in the past two or three decades. In Europe it’s been much less strong so far, but maybe that’s not a reason to wait until it becomes as big as it is in the US.

But the story I’m telling is not a deterministic story, where inequality has to rise, or inequality has to decline. There are different forces that play together in different ways, in different parts of the world.

World Finance: Well I want to look at a quote from your book now, so you said “When a government taxes a certain level of income or inheritance at a rate of 70 or 80 percent, the primary goal is obviously not to raise additional revenue; it is rather to put an end to such incomes and large estates, which lawmakers have come to regard as socially unacceptable and economically unproductive.”

Well of course the idea of capitalism is that people are rewarded for working hard, and on the upper scale that is of course with large incomes and large estates. And then that becomes cyclical because they employ people and resources which creates wealth. So are you suggesting that maybe there should be a glass ceiling on how much people can achieve?

Thomas Piketty: For a very long period of time – for instance in the US between 1930 and 1980 – the top marginal income tax rate was on average 82 percent. This did not destroy American capitalism. And the reason for that is that this was applied only to very, very high incomes. So typically above one or two million dollars of annual income.

And at that level of income, you know, it’s not clear whether inequality is really useful for growth. So you know, when you pay your managers 10 million instead of one, or 50 instead of 10. You know, of course these people are saying that this is useful for growth, and this is useful for the rest of society. But the evidence for that is, you know, quite weak.

Above a certain point, inequality is not really all that useful. And I think that’s the reason why historically the growth performance of the US economy was not actually lower than what it has been since 1980. If anything the growth rate was higher in the 50s, 60s, 70s, than they have been since the 80s.

World Finance: Your book suggests we can reduce inequality without giving up the benefits of capitalism: you proposed a global tax on all assets. So can you walk me through your proposal?

Thomas Piketty: Well first, investment in education is a most important policy. Now sometimes it’s not sufficient to prevent inequality from rising, so you also need progressive taxation of top incomes, as we’ve talked about before.

V14WF127JH_ThomasPiketty_Quote

Now progressive taxation of wealth, you know, it’s also important, this can be done – a lot can be done at the national level. With international cooperation, we can do more, because we can better tax the very top part of the distribution, in particular very large financial assets. So here we need automatic transmission of information. And we need to move toward more financial transparency generally speaking. So we need to have a registry of cross-border financial assets so that we know who owns what.

You know, this is useful for taxation, but it’s also useful for financial regulation. Because it’s very difficult to solve a banking crisis at a large scale, you know, if you don’t know who owns what in what banks.

World Finance: You have admitted your proposed tax system would be impossible on a global scale. And in effect it would trigger a national brain drain. So what’s your solution to tax avoidance, or loopholes, or people just moving to tax havens?

Thomas Piketty: This is difficult, but that doesn’t mean it is impossible. Five years ago, everybody would have said that bank secrecy in Switzerland would be with us forever. And then you know, finally there were some US sanctions against a Swiss bank, and the Swiss banks had to accept it.

It’s a bit sad that the European countries themselves were not able to solve the problem. Which in a way – you know, it’s much more of a concern for them than for the US. But still you know, I want to read this episode in a sort of optimistic and positive way. Which is that if you put the proper sanctions, this can work.

World Finance: Well if I might ask a very cheeky question: obviously best-selling author, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. You must have earned quite a bit from that. So are you tempted to move to the UK for – I think it’s 183 days – so that you can pay tax here rather than France?

Thomas Piketty: No, I belong to a minority in the population with, you know, pretty high income and wealth. And you know, I don’t have to worry too much about money.

And to me, that is what money is here for. You know, you want people to have enough money that they can think about something else. And I am fortunate enough that I don’t need to worry too much about money, but I would like more people not to worry as much as they do! And I think for this we need, you know, better institutions, so that it’s easier for the bottom half of the population, or the next 40 percent (which I call the middle class in my book) to access wealth, you know, without writing a bestselling book!

[T]he FT seems to be so afraid of my book

World Finance: The FT said that there were many unexplained data entries and errors underlying some of the book’s key charts; what was it like to have your entire research questioned?

Thomas Piketty: You know, they made a lot of noise out of nothing at all. Everybody can look at my response online, and I think anybody spending 30 minutes on the issue will conclude that they’ve made a lot of noise out of nothing at all.

I mean, I have no problem with debate. You know? I think, I tried to put everything online so that we can have an open and transparent debate. But I think it’s a bit sad that the FT seems to be so afraid of my book. I think they should be afraid of the reality, and they should try to be a bit more constructive, in my view.

But it’s okay. I think at the end of the day they’ve made for me a lot of publicity, and they’ve damaged their own reputation.

World Finance: Well your book has found its way onto very influential world leaders’ desks, so, what do you think politicians should take away from your book?

Thomas Piketty: The book tells us that there’s no natural force that prevents inequality from rising to excessive levels. And that, you know, we need to ensure through proper education and fiscal institutions that somehow we manage to keep track, and keep control, of how things are changing.

Some of the evolutions that I am describing in the direction of more wealth taxation and less labour taxation, to some extent, is happening. When we think of the debate about the mansion tax in Britain, the wealth tax in Spain. So you know, some of these evolutions are already happening.

But at the same time, the forces of competition between countries, you know, in order to attract investment, so you are very tempted to steal the tax base of your neighbour, basically. So yeah, we need more coordination, and this is what I think our political leaders should focus upon.

So, we’re going to have a European-American treaty next year? The US is one quarter of world GDP. The EU is another quarter of world GDP. This is one half of world GDP! So if this is not sufficiently big to bring more financial transparency, more coordination, in order to tax multinationals and in order to fight tax havens, what are we doing?

World Finance: So finally, what’s next for you? The rockstar economist! What’s next on your agenda?

Thomas Piketty: I plan to work more and more in emerging countries, and you know, wealth inequality is not only an issue for developed economies. In China this is becoming a really big issue. And so far they’ve been addressing the problem mostly on a case-by-case basis. You know, when an oligarch gets really too rich, they just put him in jail, a little bit like in Russia.

But they’re starting to realise that this is not a very efficient way to regulate the dynamics of wealth distribution and accumulation. So they’re actively talking about introducing some form of property and wealth tax, and yeah: I plan to work a lot more on inequality in emerging countries in the future.

World Finance: Thomas, thank you.

Thomas Piketty: Thank you.

India prices onion exports to help curb inflation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has reintroduced a minimum export price for onions as rising inflation causes a stir ahead of next month’s budget. Modi has announced that tackling rising inflation is a priority for his government and food commodities like onions are an easy target for state controls.

A minimum price control for onions – a vital export for India – was withdrawn by the previous government only three months ago. However, wholesale price inflation has steadily crept up, leading voters to express concerns over price increases.

Onions are a sensitive political issue in India, as over 15m tonnes are consumed in the country a year

India experienced a previously-unseen surge in inflation in May, which caused wholesale prices to rise six percent, up from 5.2 percent in April. Basic food commodities like onions have been driving the increase. Onions are a sensitive political issue in India, as over 15m tonnes are consumed in the country a year. The vegetable is the base for many of the most traditional and widely consumed dishes, and a price rise of as little as two rupees per kilogram- as has been reported- can have widespread political ramifications.

The country is also the second largest exporter of onions in the world, behind China. Over 1.5m tonnes of onions leave India each year, but a hotter-than-average summer and lack of storage infrastructure have caused a fear of shortages for domestic consumption.

The minimum export price for Indian onions has now been doubled by the government from $150 to $300 per tonne. ‘The rise in prices of food articles can also be attributed to withholding of stocks on account of apprehension of a weak monsoon,’ said Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on his Facebook page. ‘The year on year WPI inflation for the month of March has moved up to 6.01 percent as compared to 4.58 percent in the corresponding period last year. The increase is primarily on account of higher inflation in food articles, fuel and power costs. The Government is seized of the matter and is committed to ease supply side constraints.’

The governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, has been struggling to ease prices by repeatedly raising interest rates, and has announced a target to bring consumer price inflation down from the high 8.3 percent seen in May to around six percent by the beginning of 2016.

Argentina may default on outstanding debt

Judges in US’ highest court have ruled that Argentina cannot appeal or evade paying back more than $15bn owed to creditors who bought cheap Argentinian debt following the country’s $82bn default in 2001. The ruling is the culmination of a long legal battle in which Argentina has sought to avoid paying creditors who refused to accept its debt restructuring moves in 2005 and 2010.

In an attempt to make the country’s debt more manageable, the then government offered to pay bondholders regular interest payments provided they accepted a 70 percent reduction in the value of their investment. More than 92 percent of creditors agreed to the offer – but a number of hedge funds, spearheaded by billionaire Paul Singer’s NML Corporation, held out.

President Cristina Fernandez said in a nationally televised address that Argentina is willing to negotiate, but will be unable to pay its debts

Argentina argued that hedge funds such as Singer’s bought most of the debt at a major discount after the default and warned that it was unable to pay both the hedge funds and its regular interest payments. In its Supreme Court filing, it said that if forced to pay, ‘Argentina will have to face, objectively, a serious and imminent risk of default’.

Nevertheless, bondholders have disputed that claim, saying in their own court filing that there was evidence presented in lower courts that Argentina could afford to pay. The ruling also ensures that bondholders can go after Argentine assets by forcing subpoenas on banks to uncover its on- and offshore assets.

‘The subpoenas may turn up information about property that Argentina regards as immune but that NML thinks is subject to execution,’ Justice Antonin Scalia wrote on behalf of the court ruling.

However, President Cristina Fernandez said in a nationally televised address that Argentina is willing to negotiate, but will be unable to pay its debts within the next two weeks, as the court has ordered.

“What I cannot do as president is submit the country to such extortion,” Fernandez said, calling the holdout funds ‘vultures’. “It’s our obligation to take responsibility for paying our creditors, but not to become the victims of extortion by speculators,” she added.

Despite not making the court-ordered payments, the president maintained that Argentinian authorities are working hard on avoiding another default.

IMF downgrades US growth forecast; backs min wage hike

The Washington-based organisation has slashed its April growth forecast for the US, down to two percent from 2.8, and urged policy makers to take heed of its recommendations in strengthening the recovery and improving America’s long-term economic outlook.

“To achieve these goals and fortify the country’s economic future the policy focus should be to undertake more proactive labor market policies that lower long-term unemployment and raise participation,” reads the IMF’s annual assessment of the US economy.

Proponents of the minimum wage hike argue that an increase would help address America’s
working poor

The downgrade comes courtesy of poor winter conditions and problems in the housing market, which the organisation believes will clear up in the coming months. Therefore, the IMF’s 2015 outlook remains unchanged at three percent; although it has encouraged leaders to ‘undertake more proactive labour policies,’ and believes the country will only reach full employment towards the latter stages of 2017.

Central to the IMF’s recommendations is a minimum wage hike, which it believes to be crucial in reducing the country’s 15 percent poverty rate and boosting labour market conditions. ‘Job growth has been healthy but labor markets are weaker than is implied by the headline unemployment number: long-term unemployment is high, labour force participation is well below what can be explained by demographic factors, and wages are stagnant,’ reads the IMF assessment. ‘Given its current low level (compared both to US history and international standards), the minimum wage should be increased.’

Proponents of the minimum wage hike argue that an increase would help address America’s working poor and lift millions out of poverty. However, many remain unconvinced of the policy’s merits, and say a rise could threaten SMEs and compound issues for those already struggling to find employment.

“This policy is misguided. You simply cannot regulate wages as a means of generating prosperity. Already we are hearing significant anecdotal evidence in Seattle which shows the trade-offs which result from this type of policy, including lost opportunities for both workers laid off and the unemployed and the removal of other employee benefits which currently get provided by employers,” says Ryan Bourne, Head of Public Policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs. “Most academic literature suggests minimum wage increases do not have particularly big effects on aggregate employment, but reduce opportunities for the young, unskilled and long-term unemployed.”

BofE sends hackers in to test nationwide cyber security

In an effort to boost security, The Bank of England has created a new testing framework to highlight vulnerabilities in cyber systems across financial institutions.

The first of its kind, CBEST involves a series of tests designed to replicate hacker behaviour and expose any holes in an organisation’s online security. Examinations are to be carried out by nine intelligence firms and were comprised using information from government intelligence units and security experts.

At a price of £100,000 to firms, CBEST could be a very wise investment

So far 18 companies have agreed to partake in the initiative, with the results expected to pinpoint what information hackers can gain access to, and the damage they can wreak with it.

“If you look at testing historically, it’s quite focused on tech information which businesses find hard to interpret,” said James Chappell, Chief Technology Officer at Digital Shadows, one of the intelligence firms taking part in CBEST.  “We’re looking for real evidence of cyber activity online.”  Chappell says that CBEST will be a “collaborative approach to improve the resilience of these organisations”, and that in future other sectors such as “power, energy and telecoms” could benefit from the technology.

The framework comes a year after the banks’ financial committee urged the industry to step up its cyber security. Only recently The Royal Bank of Scotland revealed that its online platform was hacked into, and another unidentified London-listed company lost £800m after a cyber attack several years ago. Internet security company McAfee reports that the global cost of cyber crime is £266bn. At a price of £100,000 to firms, CBEST could be a very wise investment indeed.

Chappell emphasises that the results of each test will vary from institution to institution in terms of “the type of threat and the level of resistance.” Tests on firms begin this summer, and will continue annually on a voluntary basis. Chappell believes that correcting system weaknesses will be about the banks “using what they have in a more effective way”, rather than “investing in new technologies”.

Jérôme Kerviel: from rags to riches to ruin

To some, Jérôme Kerviel is a modern day Robin Hood – a capitalist villain turned socialist crusader. After spending years in the warming glow of his own media circus, the former French trader has established a cult-like fan base that worships him as some sort of people’s weapon against financial tyranny.

Yet to most, Kerviel is nothing more than a common, white-collar criminal. From his work station in the back rooms of French powerhouse Société Générale, the junior trader ran up some €50bn in unauthorised trades – and by manipulating the system and betting against the odds, Kerviel brought his employer to the brink of destruction. Société Générale nearly sank after reporting losses of €4.9bn, and European markets went into complete and utter disarray. Inevitable calls for justice ensued. Yet the fanatical sideshow that followed has only served to make Kerviel’s story all the more extraordinary.

Despite losing appeal after appeal against Société Générale, Kerviel has always insisted he was a victim – a man of humble beginnings that had been corrupted by a severely flawed financial system. His former employers scoffed at the very notion; however, his defence has plucked some heartstrings among the French public. Even politicians appear to sympathise with the plight of history’s single-largest trade fraudster. Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has likened Kerviel to Alfred Dreyfus, the man who suffered France’s most famous miscarriage of justice. Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, Front National leader Marine Le Pen has conceded it’s a little farfetched to hold just one man accountable for the faults of an entire financial institution. Perhaps it was this muddled base of support that convinced 37-year-old Kerviel to seek out Pope Francis in the wake of his convictions, and set off on a long and arduous pilgrimage to imprisonment.

Jérôme Kerviel by numbers

8

Years worked at Société Générale

€4.9bn

Amount lost in unauthorised trades

1,400km

Distance walked to face arrest

A pat on the back
There was likely a time when Jérôme Kerviel wouldn’t have relished any degree of notoriety. He was raised in a small town in Brittany, where his mother was a hairdresser and his father was a blacksmith. He attended university in Nantes, and went on to earn a Masters of Finance at Lyon, specialising in organisation and control markets. Kerviel’s professors said he was an unremarkable student, kept his head down and did as he was told. Yet because of the university’s reputation among French banks for producing great middle and back office traders, Kerviel easily happened upon a junior role at Société Générale in 2000. He was given his first shot in the firm’s middle office, where he was handed the relatively mundane task of entering the details of others’ trades. Yet in doing so, he learned the ins and outs of the firm’s computer system – including how it could be manipulated.

Yet fraud was hardly the first thing on Kerviel’s mind. In his spare time, the backroom employee indulged in hobbies like judo and armchair politics. In 2001, the Mayor of Pont l’Abbé, Thierry Mavic, even convinced Kerviel to stand for a seat on his local municipal council. Kerviel lost the election, and decided to bury himself in work instead. At the time, Société Générale’s trading arm was expanding rapidly – and Kerviel said he was forced to double his efforts in order to keep up with the young men from better schools. Eventually, he began pulling 18-hour work days, and ended up giving up hobbies like politics and martial arts. Yet his hard work started paying off.

After nearly five years’ worth of all-nighters, Kerviel was finally promoted to a spot on Société Générale’s bustling trading desk, Delta One. The move was huge for Kerviel, but his workload as a junior trader was to be fairly monotonous. Kerviel was instructed to arbitrate small price differences between derivative contracts in order to earn modest amounts of money based on tiny margins. Bosses were alleged to have made quite clear Kerviel wasn’t to take bets on market decisions. Yet just a few weeks on the job, Kerviel unknowingly turned heads at the bank by winning big on a small, routine position. After terrorists struck London in July 2007, Kerviel decided to gamble against German insurer Allianz. He got the call right, and brought in a cool (and unexpected) €500,000. Kerviel’s supervisors gave the junior trader a rare pat on the back for his win – and, according to Kerviel, that praise would come to fuel his ambition.

Cheat big, win big
After his first big win, Kerviel started cheating almost immediately – and his experience on the bank’s middle desk taught him how to cover his tracks. First, he hacked into company computers to disarm the bank’s safeguards. Then, he started taking large, open positions betting against the market. To ensure he wasn’t caught, Kerviel had to offset his unauthorised positions by filing hundreds of thousands of small, fictitious hedge trades elsewhere. Bank Chairman Daniel Bouton retrospectively described Kerviel’s method as “a mutating virus” in which each trade existed for as little as just a few hours, before automatically closing and shifting into newly initiated positions. The money began to pour in almost immediately. In 2005, he raked in €4m for the bank. By the end of 2006, he was making €11m. From his present-day prison cell, Kerviel has told reporters how he fondly remembers his supervisors showboating him around the office, declaring him the company’s “cash machine”. Kerviel rarely got a call wrong, and was earning more than double his targets. Yet it was in 2007 that Société Générale’s human printing press really started earning his salt.

In 2005, Kerviel raked in €4m for Société Générale

It was July, and the financial crisis was only just beginning to upset markets. Most banks were trading on the assumption that things were going to get worse. Kerviel decided to break ranks and bet on a rebound. He piled up a €28bn exposure in just a few months – and, incredibly, got the call right. Kerviel was able to bring in an enormous €1.4bn profit, and “no one was complaining.” Yet hubris eventually smacked Kerviel in the face. At the start of 2008, markets were slumping more than ever. Most of the traders were making huge sell-offs, equity indices were dropping and banks were treading carefully. Kerviel, on the other hand, was confident things would turn around again. He built up a position of €50bn, more than Société Générale’s entire market capitalisation, betting that stocks would bounce back. This time, he got the call dead wrong.

Kerviel was sitting at his brother’s house in Paris eating breakfast when the pandemonium began to unfold. The equities rebound he had predicted never materialised – and by the time bank bosses realised what had happened, the damage had already been done. In just three days of trading, Société Générale tallied up losses at €4.9bn. The bank’s shares tumbled, an emergency rights issue ensued and the CEO swiftly resigned. Jérôme Kerviel’s wild ride had come to a screeching halt.

A march against tyranny
Despite their best efforts, police said they lacked enough evidence to charge Kerviel with fraud. Instead, the best they could do was to charge the trader with breach of trust and illegally accessing a computer. Société Générale filed a separate lawsuit against Kerviel for forgery, too. Yet two years passed before the rogue trader would ever go to trial. Finally, in June 2010, he appeared in court to make his case. Kerviel entered the dock with his head held high. He admitted to exceeding trading limits, faking documents and entering false data into computers. Yet his defence, such as it was, intrigued the public: he said his supervisors had known exactly what he was doing, and argued he was nothing more than a single cog in a monstrous, broken machine. An internal report from the bank backed up his claims, having found that Kerviel’s managers failed to follow up on 74 different alarms about the trader’s dubious trading activities.

In order to pay back Société Générale, Kerviel would have to hand over €100,000 every year for 49,000 years

The judges didn’t buy it. In October, Kerviel was handed a jail sentence of five years, with two suspended, and commanded to repay Société Générale the €4.9bn he lost them. It was the latter that moved quite a few people into Jérôme Kerviel’s corner. After all, in order to pay back the bank, the unemployed trader would have to hand over €100,000 – his top salary at Société Générale – every year for 49,000 years.

Bank officials weren’t immune from a wag of the finger, either. France’s top banking supervisor fined Société Générale €4m for its lax monitoring of staff, and went on to investigate several other back room traders. Later that year, the bank let go a handful of staff for minor fraudulent activity. Yet Kerviel’s defence lawyer, Olivier Metzner, unsurprisingly lambasted the sentence and promised that he would appeal. The trader’s sentence was deferred until then.

So, in October 2012, Kerviel was forced to enter the dock once again, but a Parisian court of appeals shocked the public by deciding to uphold his original 2010 sentence. Yet again, Mr Metzner scoffed at the decision, and decided to take Kerviel’s case all the way to the highest court in the land. But the trader didn’t stick around to hear their verdict. Unemployed and the subject of immense political debate, Kerviel understandably started flirting with depression. It was difficult to assess where to go; therefore, at the behest of a prominent French bishop, Kerviel decided to seek guidance from the most divine source he could think of: Pope Francis.

In February this year, Kerviel jetted off to Rome, where he met with the Pope outside the Vatican. The two are said to have spent much time discussing what the Catholic leader called “the tyranny of the markets”. Then, in order to give Kerviel a little otherworldly strength to face his earthly struggles, the Pope also offered Kerviel a blessed rosary. Despite the Pope’s good grace, Swedish Guard officials describe the conversation as little more than “a lapse in security”; however, the meeting caused serendipity to strike in the mind of Jérôme Kerviel. The best way to illustrate his transformation from capitalist pawn, he reckoned, was a public display of repentance.

Société Générale post-trading scandal

€8.04bn

Operating income, 2006

€1.8bn

Operating income, 2007

€5.22bn

Net income, 2006

€0.95bn

Net income, 2007

Facing the music
Following an old pilgrimage route from Rome to Paris, Kerviel decided to solemnly trudge 1,400km home in a self-righteous ‘march against the markets’. Surviving solely upon donations from well-wishers and good Samaritans, Kerviel slowly meandered his way back home, where he knew judgement would be awaiting him. He was followed every step of the way by a proverbial media circus. In March, while Kerviel was somewhere in Tuscany, his lawyer got in touch about the court’s most recent decision. It was more than he could have hoped for. Judges in Versailles ruled Kerviel would have to serve his jail time – but should not have to repay the €4.9bn he lost. Instead, a “more reasonable” figure would later be decided by a civil court. Members of Kerviel’s growing fan club were elated; however, the reformed trader was forced to pick up his walking pace, as judges gave him just two weeks to report himself to prison. Despite changing his mind several times, Kerviel eventually crossed into France just minutes before his legal deadline, and surrendered himself to local authorities.

It’s fairly safe to say Jérôme Kerviel’s odyssey is far from over – least of all because a civil court is still yet to reassess just how much the incarcerated trader should repay his former employer. Yet his reckless trading, jaw-dropping losses and quirky method of repentance have also brought trading activity under a new level of independent scrutiny.

The catastrophic tale of Jérôme Kerviel encouraged regulators to start cracking the whip on global institutions. In November 2012, USB was fined almost £30m for inadequate controls after city trader Kweku Adoboli cost the bank £2.3bn in losses. Last year, JPMorgan Chase was fined a combined $1bn from various authorities for the costly antics of Bruno Iksil, who became known as the ‘London Whale’. From his jail cell, Jérôme Kerviel has described how trading began to distort his sense of reality – forgetting he was playing with a tangible asset, rather than just inconsequential numbers on a computer screen.

If nothing else, one would hope that chilling realisation is proving to be a real eye-opener for the financial sector. With markets on the mend across Europe, it’s become vital, now more than ever, that regulators and boardrooms be proactive about getting their houses in order. After all, by turning a blind eye to questionable trading methods, it appears banks inevitably stand to lose more than they could ever hope to gain.

Japan GDP growth up in first quarter to analysts’ surprise

The Cabinet Office has revised Japan’s quarterly growth through the January-March period to 1.6 percent, 0.1 percent higher than previously thought, bringing the country’s annualised growth rate to 6.7 percent – up from the initial 5.9 percent.

The government has attributed the upward revision by-and-large to corporate capital spending, which was up 7.6 percent on the quarter previous – far and above the 4.9 percent posted in the preliminary report. Private consumption, which accounts for approximately 60 percent of Japan’s GDP, was also up slightly to 2.2 percent from the 2.1 percent posted previously. Exports and imports remained unchanged at 6 and 6.3 percent respectively, whereas public investment was down 2.7, more than the 2.4 percent posted in the original.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to reel the country from two decades of stagnation have so far proven successful

The upward revision came as a surprise to most analysts, who expected the numbers to come in unchanged. However, the vast majority still maintain that spending will fall this quarter, due largely to the consumption tax hike that came in at the beginning of April. The increase to eight percent from five marks the first instance of a rise in 17 years and is the single biggest contributor to increased spending this quarter passed.

Although the increase will no doubt curb consumer spending, it comes as part of the government’s measures to battle spiralling public debts, which equate to approximately 230 percent of GDP.

It is also hoped that the tax will distance Japan from its deflationary trappings and protect against plummeting consumer prices. Results from last month showed that consumer prices rose by an annualised rate of 3.2 percent, marking the fastest rate of growth in 23 years and beating the BOJ’s inflation target of two percent.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to reel the country from two decades of stagnation have so far proven successful, and consumer prices in the country have risen now for 11 consecutive months.