Subjective ethics; How the church invests

Finance and the church: not usually linked, but holding investments of over £15bn, it certainly has some financial clout. World Finance speaks to Dr James Corah, Deputy Head of the ethical and responsible investment at the church investment charity CCLA, to discuss.

World Finance: Well James, the church needs to generate over £1bn a year to maintain its places of worship; where does this money come from?
Dr James Corah: The majority of that money comes from congregational giving – the people in the pews putting money in the plate every Sunday.

But the second part of that pie chart, as it were, is money from investments: investment returns, investment income, which makes up about 24 percent of the Church of England’s overall financial need.

While I talk about the Church of England, I do think that’s indicative of churches more broadly.

World Finance: So in terms of investment, what’s more important: ethics, or profits?
Dr James Corah: The first, predominant role, of a church investor is to make the money to fund the church’s activity. Which in itself is inherently a worthy activity.

But what we do find is the church – one, screens out the issues that are most against what it’s teaching. Which is kind of impossible to do in its entirety, but what you can do is make sure you screen out the most material concerns; and then work with the companies you also have smaller concerns with to improve their behaviour. And church investors have a very good track record with regards to that.

[A]lthough the Islamic approach has a much harder line on it, the Christian investors do use the spiritual background of their staff to make sure they are involved in the setting of investment criteria

World Finance: Are there any taboo things that the church really wouldn’t invest in?
Dr James Corah: We as an investment manager really believe it’s not up to us to decide what is ethical. We can’t make that decision; what we have to do is listen to the clients.

And we do that in two ways. With our Church of England fund we follow the guidance of the Church of England’s ethical advisory group. But with our ecumenical church holders, we survey them on a three year basis, to ask them what are the things that they’re most directly concerned about. And it comes as no surprise, really, of wanting to avoid the arms companies, pornography, tobacco, gambling, armaments, high interest rate lending.

What we’ve seen over time is that list has expanded. They are really much more interested in environmental issues these days: and screening out companies who are materially involved in the production of thermal coals, the most carbon intensive fossil fuel; and also companies that derive a large percentage of their revenue from the extraction of tar sands, the most energy-intensive form of developing a fossil fuel.

World Finance: Islamic finance of course is growing in popularity; is this the kind of investment model that the church could adopt?
Dr James Corah: There isn’t a massive difference in regards to the way that the two finance systems relate. Of course apart from obvious areas like interest being prohibited under Islamic finance. But the method of doing it – of creating a restricted list, and embedding that – is very similar. As is the involvement of people practically involved in the faith in setting policies. So the interpretation of theological principles from a Christian perspective is very similar to the Islamic approach of oversight.

And although the Islamic approach has a much harder line on it, the Christian investors do use the spiritual background of their staff to make sure they are involved in the setting of investment criteria.

World Finance: Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England attributed part of the problem to banks having lost their moral compass; so do you think the whole financial industry should be held more ethically accountable?
Dr James Corah: The word ‘ethics’ is very, very subjective.

One of the most important things that we think you’ve got to say when you talk about ethics is, ‘Whose ethics are they?’ Who is it who’s saying what is right, and what is wrong?

And as we manage money across the entire spectrum from charity to church, that group of people won’t agree on what is ethical. But what they can agree on is different practices and ways forward.

So what you won’t be surprised to learn is that we’ve been a part of conversations with the banks to try to help them find that purpose and way forward, and we’re very impressed with what is going on at some of them to try and arrange that change.

And one of the areas that we’ve talked about is the living wage. Traditionally we’ve looked at pay at the top of the company; we’re also looking at pay at the bottom of the company now.

Election puts Greece on collision course with EU

The dramatic rise of Greece’s far-left Syriza party in recent months culminated in a staggering victory in the country’s general election. The result announced on Sunday evening saw Syriza secure an expected 149 of 300 parliamentary seats, and deposing the incumbent New Democracy party.

The party performed far better than many had expected

Led by the charismatic and vociferously anti-austerity Alexis Tsipras, Syriza narrowly fell short of securing an outright majority in the election. However, the party performed far better than many had expected, and now takes centre stage in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors – the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Syriza’s victory comes as Greece has been severely hit by austerity cuts. As a condition of a mammoth bailout from the EC, ECB and IMF, Greece’s previous New Democracy government had agreed to swingeing cuts to public spending. As a result, the country now has unemployment of 25.5 percent, with almost half of all 25-35 year olds out of work.

Tsipras has maintained that his government will not put up with the austerity any longer and is looking to renegotiate the terms Greece’s bailout. The country has borrowed almost €240bn since 2010 in order to prop up its economy, but still needs to negotiate the final €7.2bn. Syriza wants to write off the debt, while it has also hinted it would re-nationalise many foreign-owned assets in the country.

It seems highly unlikely that European leaders or the IMF will agree to any of these new terms, and so the prospect of Greece departing the Eurozone increases. While EU leaders have worried about that happening in the past, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is said to be more relaxed about Greece’s potential exit in recent weeks.

Komerční Pojišťovna: a trusted voice in the Czech insurance market

In today’s low interest rate climate, those in the insurance industry are waking up to a shift in consumer attitudes. In the Czech Republic companies such as Komerční Pojišťovna (KP) have been quick to capitalise on a market that has taken some heat in the past.

“KP remains cautious with regard to the current situation on the financial markets and low interest rates, and pays attention to asset management”, says the firm’s Chief Executive Stéphane Corbet. “Of course we would welcome the revival and improvement of conditions in the markets, but at the same time we are still able to offer attractive products with an attractive appreciation to our clients.” In the Czech Republic, there has been an increase in awareness to protect assets. While on a European scale, many Czechs still remain relatively reserved, changing attitudes are giving rise to more favourable conditions for the insurance sector, provided firms are quick to adapt to the changing climate.

[C]hanging attitudes are giving rise to more favourable conditions for the insurance sector

“We can see gradually increasing financial literacy of the population that is also driven by financial institutions”, says Corbet. “Pure sale of financial products is no longer the main objective. Today, banks, insurance companies, building saving companies and others from financial sectors focus mainly on providing quality financial advice.”

KP’s long-term strategy centres on customer service and on boosting its presence as a company capable of offering attractive products and related client advice. “KB Group, including KP, invests considerable resources and capacity in developing financial guidance and education of their clients and sellers. Clients may for example create their own long-term financial plan with recommended products, including insurance, thanks to the newly created application ‘MojePlány’”, says Corbet.

Utilising niche practices
Speaking on the hot topic of endowment insurance, and a tendency among local providers to drop the product altogether, Corbet believes it holds disadvantages for clients when interest rates are as low as they are. “After deducting the costs of the insurer, it brings almost no or negligible yield to the clients”, he says. “Endowment insurance does not allow any change of insurance settings or a creation of capital value.

“Unit-linked life insurance is a better solution in this regard”, says Corbet. “When selecting a suitable investment strategy it is possible to achieve really attractive returns, plus it is more flexible than the endowment insurance, because you can continuously change the parameters set at the beginning of the insurance and a type of investment strategy, as well as the extent of insurance coverage. It also allows partial withdrawals, which is not permitted in endowment insurance for the entire duration of the contract.”

In backing unit-linked life insurance as a fitting solution for the current climate, KP has recorded the highest growth in single-premium life insurance in the Czech market. In the first quarter of 2014, KP ranked first in the Czech life insurance market, measured by volume of written premiums, according to Czech accounting standards, with a total volume of CZK 6.8bn and a market share of 17.8 percent.

Guaranteeing investments
The figures, compared with the first half of 2013, have increased by CZK 2.6bn, mainly due to the life insurance for premium clientele Vital Premium (CZK 2bn) and unit-linked life insurance Vital Invest (CZK 0.5bn). “This success is mainly given by the long-term supply of guaranteed appreciation, which competes with current rates of deposit products. In the past three years KP credited appreciation of 2.7 percent, 2.3 percent and two percent, all per annum”, says Corbet.

“Clients are very interested in unit-linked life insurance, especially the Guaranteed Appreciation Fund within the insurance at Vital Invest and Broucˇek. At the time of unstable financial markets and low interest rates, people want mainly safe investment products with a guaranteed yield. KP was able to customise products to these needs and to offer attractive yield despite the difficult market conditions. In the first quarter of 2014 the volume of written premiums in product Vital Invest grew year on year by half a billion CZK.”

By keeping a close eye on the issues affecting Czech consumers and the various pitfalls of a low interest environment, KP has quickly become one of the country’s most trusted insurance providers and a pioneering name in the industry.

Sirisena shakes up Sri Lanka

Following Mahinda Rajapaksa’s increasingly authoritarian 10-year reign, the election of Maithripala Sirisena came as much as a surprise in Sri Lanka as it did for international onlookers. Formerly the health minister until defecting in November, the President-elect has pledged to eradicate corruption, reduce reliance on China and forge closer ties with India and the West. In his inauguration speech, Sirisena hailed a 100-day programme as the start of economic and political reform in Sri Lanka. Amid the host of pledges made by the new government, a tactical and sustainable strategy is required in order to maintain the country’s impressive GDP growth, while tackling its burgeoning fiscal debt. 

Sirisena has stressed the importance of combating corruption, which has burdened the promising economy in recent times

Sirisena’s promises
Starting with the reshuffle of a cabinet that was often criticised for nepotism, Arjuna Mahendran has been named as the new head of the central bank. Fresh to the political scene, Mahendren brings a wealth of private banking experience from HSBC and Emirates NBD. While former commerce minister, Ravi Karunanayake, has stepped up to the post of finance minister. Sirisena’s pre-election campaign promises were maintained by Karunanayake upon his appointment when he reaffirmed that subsidies would be granted for 10 commodities, including fuel. In addition to the president’s pledge to raise government wages, Karunanayake announced that a mechanism will be implemented to increase wages in the private sector also. He added that a new focus will be paid to fine-tuning the management of revenue and tax collection, an ongoing problem faced by the Rajapaksa regime.

Sirisena has stressed the importance of combating corruption, which has burdened the promising economy in recent times. Potential cases can be found in a number of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects. For example, the new 25.8km Colombo-Katunayake Expressway funded by Exim Bank of China cost 1.8bn Sri Lankan Rupees ($13.6m) per km to build, making it the most expensive highway ever constructed. The Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port and the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport have also been earmarked for gross overspending and a lack of transparency. The Sirisena regime has stated that the mammoth Colombo Port City project, which is currently under construction, could be shut down if financial and environmental discrepancies are found. Yet despite the rhetoric of the new government, analysts believe that this may not come to fruition, “I would actually argue that some of this talk about reviewing Chinese projects and the like could simply be a negotiating tactic for a better deal, rather than cancelling these projects outright. They could be fishing for even more generous terms, it’s certainly a possibility”, says Sasha Riser-Kositsky, South Asia Analyst at the Eurasia Group.

Upon his election, Sirisena notably outlined a shift away from dependence on China. As well as receiving more than $4bn in loans for various infrastructure ventures in recent years, Sri Lanka also heavily relies on China for much of its exports. According to Lanka Business Online, loan conditions include importing raw materials, as well as labourers and contractors from China. While hugely indebted to China, Sri Lanka is simultaneously pumping money into its debtor’s economy. The island has thus become increasingly tied to China, financially and possibly politically also, as illustrated by the deployment of a Chinese military submarine to Colombo Port twice in September. Although fiscal reliance on China can be reduced over time, it cannot be achieved in the short term, and certainly not within Sirisena’s 100-day regime.

The president-elect also swiftly set out his intentions of forging stronger economic ties with India, a natural partner for Sri Lanka in the region. Moreover, Sirisena has stressed an importance in adopting closer allegiance with the West, following strained relations resulting from a bloody end to the 30-year civil war in 2009. Fostering these closer trade partnerships can potentially secure continual and improved performance of Sri Lanka’s exports. This is of particular significance given that chief exports such as tea, garments, manufactured goods and agricultural products are a predominant factor for Sri Lanka’s recent economic growth. The Asian Development Bank reported that exports had increased by 16.8 percent during the first half of 2014, an impressive figure for a country that contended with prolonged drought. Within the same period, imports fell by 1.2 percent, thereby reducing the budget deficit by 20.1 percent to $3.5bn. A focus to improving production and distribution capabilities is essential for increasing exports and thereby maintaining continued fiscal growth. 

Growing economy
Despite numerous cases of tax evasion and gross overspending, the economy improved considerably under the Rajapaksa regime. In terms of GDP growth, the post-conflict state is the fastest growing economy in South Asia. While the country’s inflation rate has also improved, falling by 6.7 percent to 2.10 percent in December. According to the Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey, total unemployment also dropped from 4.6 percent in Q1 2013 to 4.1 percent in Q1 2014.

The Sri Lankan Treasury reports the service industry accounted for 57.5 percent of Sri Lankan GDP for the first nine months of 2014

In spite of the corruption allegations that have tarnished a number of large projects, the objective of improving the country’s infrastructure has been of particular economic significance. For example, rail services between the north and the south of the island were connected for the first time in over two decades in October, both a functional and symbolic event for Sri Lanka. This link brings considerable benefits for the tourism industry, as well as for potential investment. Travellers and visiting investors alike can move around the country with far greater ease and speed, a far cry from the previous mode of notoriously bumpy roads.

Tourism, an important source of income for the island, is thriving and has experienced considerable growth year-on-year. According to the Asian Development Outlook 2014, tourism revenue soared by 33.8 percent to $1.1 bn. Other services have also contributed to the growing GDP, significantly from the transportation, communication and financial sectors. The Sri Lankan Treasury reports the service industry accounted for 57.5 percent of Sri Lankan GDP for the first nine months of 2014. Real estate will also begin to play a bigger role, given a new act introduced by Rajapaksa in October. The Restrictions on Alienation of Land Bill abolished a 100 percent tax for foreign purchases of property and was replaced by a 15 percent duty on 99 year leases. The shareholding rights for foreigners have also been improved, increasing the limit of shares from 25 to 49 percent. Such incentives will encourage foreign investment into new areas and can have a significant impact to the economy in the coming years. 

Ongoing challenges
The incumbent government has inherited 7.2trn Sri Lankan Rupees ($55bn) in total debt. Karunanayake and Sirisena have stated their intent to negotiate concessional financing from the IMF in order to retire more expensive foreign debt, while simultaneously not conceding to any conditions given by the organisation. Other contradictory statements include creating a more stable investment climate while cancelling a number of casino licences granted by the previous government. “Now obviously this is still early days in a new government, but they simply do raise questions for investors, and I think that’s one of the reasons why the Sri Lanka markets haven’t done particularly well the last couple of days, because they’re worried about this mis-mash of economic statements,” says Riser-Kositsky.

Implementing these policies while also upholding populist pledges is a mammoth challenge for the incumbent regime. “The medium to long term implications is that it has the potential to further deteriorate Sri Lanka’s fiscal accounts. It’s certainly something that international investors that hold some of Sri Lanka’s debt and multilateral financial institutions are going to be looking at, given Sri Lanka’s history of macroeconomic imbalances and currency and reserve problems”, Riser-Kositsky explains to World Finance.

Low tax revenue is another persistent concern for the economy, with numerous targets failing to be met over the past year. Disproportionally low taxation revenue can be attributed to a weak tax base that has not been extended to include new income streams. In addition, a high frequency of tax evasion and exemptions partnered with weak administration, have contributed to this ongoing issue. A dependence on indirect taxation, as opposed to direct taxation has also played a significant role. The excessively complicated taxation system in Sri Lanka is in desperate need of restructuring and streamlining. If the new government can prioritise this, in addition to broadening of the tax base, the economy can be ultimately strengthened through sustainable income gains.

Economic outlook
Sri Lanka’s liberalised economy has permitted the growth witnessed in recent years, with further development being attainable, providing the correct mechanisms are in place. A focus on reorganizing the country’s taxation system is essential in order to begin reducing the total debt currently burdening the state. Improving the country’s infrastructure can also maximise the revenue of current income streams, namely exports and the service industries and exports. Reassessing the current structure of foreign loans may also be explored so as to offset future pitfalls. According to analysts, it is likely that the incumbent regime will also shop around for improved rates from other sources.

Closer ties with India could possibly bolster Sri Lanka economically

Closer ties with India could possibly bolster Sri Lanka economically also. Not only as a result of increasing exports but also in terms of investment opportunities. India’s economic growth could have a knock on effect for Sri Lanka, not only as capital flows from one country to the other, but it can also open up the region generally for additional investment. Whether these renewed relations are substantial as opposed to symbolic is yet to be seen. “Closer ties with India and the West may bring a few concessions in trade, but for the most part it is going to be political rather than economic,” argues Ahilan Kadirgamar of the Sri Lankan-based organisation, Collective for Economic Democratisation.

Looming political challenges will significantly impact the economy also. The Sirisena regime has a very short period of time before parliamentary elections take place in April, the result of which could transform the political landscape once again. If a different party is elected, then a host of new economic policies could be unveiled, and those pledged by Sirisena upon his inauguration may be left at the wayside. The reality of what can be achieved economically within the 100 day period is relatively limited. Nevertheless, Sirisena is aware of the importance of achieving some of his promises and of making somewhat of an impact, in securing a win in the next round of elections.

Unless the country’s reliance on foreign loans is reversed, which stems further than just dependence on China, the economic growth witnessed in recent years cannot be sustained. Focusing on increasing the revenue from Sri Lanka’s strongest industries, while introducing new income streams, can on the other hand endorse long term fiscal growth.

Hutchison Whampoa set to buy O2 UK for £10bn

The UK’s highly competitive mobile telecom industry is set for a major shake up after news emerged that O2, the country’s biggest provider, is set to be purchased by Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa. The potential deal, worth £10.25bn, would see the Hong Kong firm’s Three network, currently the smallest in the market, combine with the market leader.

Talks over the sale of O2 by Spanish parent company Telefónica have been on-going for the last two months, with discussions with BT coming to an end in December. Hutchison’s offer is thought to be worth around £9.25bn of cash, with an additional £1bn coming later. According to the Hong Kong firm, talks have been underway for a number of weeks and they are now in exclusive negotiations.

Another merger in the UK telecoms industry currently being discussed is the £12.5bn purchase of EE by BT

Another merger in the UK telecoms industry currently being discussed is the £12.5bn purchase of EE by BT, which will further shake up the market. The UK’s media regulator, Ofcom, is thought to have concerns over the prospect of further consolidation the industry. Traditionally it has favoured a minimum of four major market players in the industry so that consumers are offered competitive prices. Were the O2 deal to go ahead, the market would be cut down to three major players – O2/Three, Vodafone and EE.

With BT moving back into the mobile space – it previously owned O2’s predecessor Cellnet until selling to Telefónica in 2005 – the industry is set to have a number of big players competing for customers. Vodafone, the industry’s third largest firm, has been strengthening its operations in recent months across Europe, while trying to recapture the market dominance it had during the last decade.

EE, with 25 million customers, is seen as the market leader in the 4G space, and will be greatly boosted by joining forces with BT’s network. However, both firms will be particularly concerned about the market leader swallowing up Three’s eight million customers, who are traditionally around the cheaper end of the market.

Hutchison Whampoa is owned by Asia’s richest man Li Ka-shing, who has been actively looking to build up his operations across the world. While there are concerns over the deal, Hutchison’s Group Finance Director, Frank Sixt, believes that EU regulators have approved reducing the number of players in an industry in the past. He told the BBC, “The European Commission has taken a positive view of four-to-three consolidations of mobile in three cases now…and we believe that the precedents that they have set in those transactions will apply for this transaction.”

Istanbul bourse success: Turkey ‘has all the right pre-requisites’ for high profits in 2015

At the end of 2014, the Istanbul bourse’s main index closed at an all time high, and became the fifth most profitable stock exchange. Will this success continue in 2015? World Finance talks to Ibrahim Turhan, CEO of Borsa Istanbul, to find out.

World Finance: So Ibrahim, how did the stock exchange end up yielding such high profits?
Ibrahim Turhan: Since Turkey has all the pre-requisites: demography, productivity, efficient market structure, openness to the rest of the world, a well-functioning private economy. This is the right combination; there is no magic in it. If you do the right thing, you get the right result.

World Finance: What industries will lead the market this year?
Ibrahim Turhan: Retail and private consumptions will get very strong outcomes, I guess. Simply because Turkey is still one of the countries that has positive growth. 3.2 percent for 2014 is a little bit disappointing for us; but we know that this is still the second highest in Europe, and the third in the OECD.

Turkey and European financial markets are deeply integrated

World Finance: Turkey sits on the cusp of Europe; how do you think quantitative easing will influence business?
Ibrahim Turhan: Turkey and European financial markets are deeply integrated. Any expansion from the European side will have a positive impact on Turkish economic activities, simply because the ease of financing investment will be there.

Turkey has by far the strongest fiscal outlook among not only all European markets, but also emerging markets.

By 2017, we are expecting to have a surplus budget. And this is very rare, especially nowadays.

So when the money will decide about its destination, the fiscal outlook will be a very important determining factor. And for this, Turkey has done the right job, I guess. And declining commodity prices – especially energy prices – are helping a lot.

World Finance: How has the Swiss decision not to peg its currency to the euro impacted the exchange?
Ibrahim Turhan: I always prefer to have monetary independence. If you are to peg your currency to another currency, sine qua non, it’s the homogeneity to offer your economy, especially against external shocks.

If this is not the case, you’d rather to remain independent. And from that angle, I should say that for Turkey it is a little bit too early to talk about pegging its currency to the euro.

World Finance: The exchange has ramped up relations with London recently; is this in some way a reaction to a perceived distancing of Turkey from the rest of the EU under President Erdogan?
Ibrahim Turhan: This is clear evidence and strong proof that Turkey is still an integrated part of the European financial system.

World Finance: There were suggestions last year that the country had sent arms to Syrian rebels, and the government had failed to commit to the US-led coalition against ISIS. Do you think the country’s attitude towards terrorism deflates investor appetite?
Ibrahim Turhan: Take for example Afghanistan; take Iraq; take Kosovo. Turkey has always acted together with the international coalitions, as long as the legitimacy is there.

Turkey has a long story of fighting against terrorism, and we condemn any kind of terrorism without any doubt.

So I think perception-wise, the perception may be different from each other. But we should close the gap between the reality and the perception. I don’t think that Turkey’s attitude towards terrorist activities will have any role except a good one.

World Finance: Volatility is expected in the second half of 2015, off the back of post-election uncertainty on economic management and policies. So how safe is Istanbul as a place to invest, compared to other emerging markets?
Ibrahim Turhan: The prime minister made it very clear. Last year we had two elections, and this year we will have one more.

Under normal conditions, when you have such a volatile political cycle, you expect the governments to act a little bit irresponsibly, and to increase spending. But in our case, contrary to this, what we observe is very prudent fiscal policy.

This is a clear sign that the economic policies are conducted in a very rational and market-friendly way.

Part two, Greece’s future: ‘There’s been enormous corruption, waste, fraud, and abuse’

World Finance: Greece’s debt is largely believed to be unsustainable and unrepayable; is this the case?
Steve Hanke: They even have debt of €1.5bn that’s coming due in, I believe, the end of February. And it was supposed to be paid at the end of December! The EU looked the other way, and they’ve given them two extra months! And I think this will be a pattern that we will see with the debts that the Greeks owe to the Europeans.

part-one-greeces-future-eurozone-exit-would-be-a-disaster

Watch part one in our video series:

Greece’s future: eurozone exit ‘would be a disaster’

World Finance: Greece has a high debt-to-GDP ratio; is that necessarily a bad thing?
Steve Hanke: If there’s resources that you’ve been obtaining or put into productive projects and investments that make the economy boom, but that’s not the case with Greece. Most of this money has essentially gone down a black hole.

There’s been enormous corruption, waste, fraud, and abuse. Greece’s potential growth rate hasn’t approved as they’ve accumulated more and more debts.

World Finance: Well finally, Greece’s interest burden on its debt was around four percent of GDP in 2014 – lower than countries like Ireland and Italy. So should EU concerns really be focused on Greece?
Steve Hanke: The Europeans should be focused on trying to get some structural reforms. Right now they’ve been engaged in a very large bailout, and not much has happened, because the Greek public expenditure has not gone down since 2006 – it’s gone up by about 11 percent. And since the economy has shrunk, the public sector in Greece has actually increased in relative size, up to almost 60 percent of the total economy. So that has to be shrunk.

My contention is, my premise is, that the Europeans are more or less going to be forced to continue bailing out Greece. So if you’re bailing out somebody, you want to figure out how to stop the leaks in the bucket.

Democratised public spending gives people a taste of power

Only six months into her tenure, and centre-left leaning City Mayor Anne Hidalgo had already set aside a generous €426m budget for the people of Paris to do with what they will. “This is a new tool for citizen participation for all Parisians to propose and choose the projects that will make the Paris of tomorrow”, she said. “They will have the opportunity to be full participants in civic life. I see a major democratic innovation.”

Christened the ‘Budget Participatif’, the initiative is set to run through 2020 and will leave Parisians to decide on which projects five percent of city hall’s budget will be spent. Kicking off on 24 September and closing 1 October, citizens were offered a choice of 15 projects for the first round, with the list spanning everything from pop-up swimming pools to living walls. And whereas participatory budgeting, on one hand, marks a major departure from what’s come before, the model follows a string of projects like it, similar in scale and in ambition, and all united by an ambition to improve public policy.

Allowing citizens a say in the allocation of public spending is an effective tool for ensuring services align with people’s best interests

This being said, participatory budgeting represents only one facet of a much wider discussion on participatory devices and the role they play in improving – and even transforming – public policy. In principle, a participatory budget (PB) could see underrepresented minorities wrestle control away from ill-informed authorities and allocate finances to areas desperately in need of stimulus. Ultimately, democratising the budgetary process could mark a turning point for governments looking to more effectively allocate their finances and gather public support. However, the system is not without its faults, and the results can sometimes miss the mark, with many participants prioritising immediate ‘human’ concerns ahead of economic ones.

Making a compromise
In the case of Paris, the winning bid was a $3.69m scheme to improve biodiversity across the capital by creating living walls, in keeping with a socially responsible theme shared between the nine winning projects. In second place was a plan to create so-called ‘learning gardens’ in schools, and plans to create more recreational space and recycling points also gained widespread support. And while the majority were bowled over by the scheme, others were unconvinced by a PB, so soon after reports at the midpoint of 2014 showed the city’s budget deficit stood at a mammoth $492m.

Sure, the chosen projects might not coincide with the priorities set out by the government, though allowing citizens a say in the allocation of public spending is an effective tool for ensuring services align with people’s best interests. In short, participatory budgeting is a proven method of democratising spending decisions and improving the relationship between citizen and state. Opinions on the initiative are split and studies on its supposed effectiveness number in the many. Though the mechanism has been gaining traction most notably since the 2008 financial crash, with inspired authorities to turn to innovative and even untested means of improving public spending to offset any losses.

“This challenge demands innovation. With fewer resources, public services need to look for new ways of supporting people. Innovation, in turn, demands participation”, according to a Nesta report entitled Unlocking the Potential of Participatory Budgeting. “We need to build on the vibrant and growing movement of direct involvement of people and communities in their public services that complements the strategic leadership already provided by our elected leaders.”

Prior participatory budgeting
Driven by extreme lengths of poverty and widespread homelessness in the country’s southernmost state, authorities in Brazil’s Porto Alegre in 1989 were the first to pioneer the participatory budgeting process. It was here that a PB came to be seen as a viable solution to the city’s prevailing socio-economic challenges, and it wasn’t long after that the initiative succeeded in paving the way for a long list of public welfare improvements.

However, the first known trial of PB was also the first time policymakers were alerted to the difficulties contained within, with fears abound that under representation could distort the system’s effectiveness. Although the initiative was born of a call for greater inclusion, only 1,000 voters turned out for the first round of signatures, and while 40,000 would sign before the decade was up, there was a danger from the outset that the demands of only a small segment of society would be represented. Therefore, half the challenge – and a large part of the solution – for those introducing a PB is in reaching peripheral communities and sectors of society that might otherwise be overlooked.

Even assuming that the message makes it to every citizen, there is still a danger that some might misinterpret what benefits they could stand to gain – if any. The challenge of explaining the intricacies of public finance to the masses is a complicated business, not to mention the logistical challenges of reaching them in the first place.

Without a transparent method of translating relevant points to a mass audience, it’s unlikely that any voters will be in a position to make a qualified decision about how best to distribute spending. For example, one report compiled by the Civic Institute shows that only one in every 10 Polish citizen’s budgets contained enough information to make it easily understandable and even legally binding. “Most budgets were poorly prepared. There were no public consultations held to explain the idea of participation to residents”, said the organisation’s director, Jarosław Makowski.

It’s clear that there are numerous challenges to first contend with before any government or institution can implement the system to any great effect, though reception to the idea among the public so far has been overwhelmingly positive. “People are experts on their lived experiences. PB is about more than giving residents a voice; it’s about bringing the community together in conversation. The community is able to collaboratively identify needs, create solutions, and prioritise their options”, says Josh Lerner, Executive Director of the Participatory Budgeting Project.

“Residents have invaluable local knowledge about needs and priorities in their community. PB combines this local knowledge with technical knowledge from experts, to make public spending more efficient and more responsive to community needs”, adds Lerner. “When a community decides how and where to spend money, it makes the community stronger through the shared experience of working together to solve problems and implement solutions”.

Seeing all the facts
Even still, the growing adoption of participatory budgeting represents just one part of a growing trend towards decentralisation in developing nations, especially in regions where democracy itself marks a relatively recent development. “By giving voice to those generally excluded from the democratic debate, PB has been shown time and again to have positive ‘pro-poor’ benefits”, says Sue Ritchie, Acting Chair of the UK PB Network.

“Transparency is the key to good government, and across the world PB has been linked to the reduction of corruption in the awarding of public contracts, and has stimulated community based enterprises; thereby returning income to communities through local employment and better public spending.”

At present, there are over 1,500 cities and institutions implementing a PB of some description, many of them in developing markets where large sectors of society are underrepresented by government. In these areas, participatory budgeting represents a welcome departure from the poor governance controls that have for too long dogged citizens, and promises to boost investment in areas most in need of improvement.

“Participatory budgeting is emerging as an innovative urban management practice with excellent potential to promote principles of good urban governance”, according to a UN-Habitat report entitled Participatory Budgeting in Africa. “Indeed, participatory budgeting can yield many benefits to local government and civil society alike. It can improve transparency in municipal expenditures and stimulate citizens’ involvement in decision-making over public resources. It can redirect municipal investment toward basic infrastructure for poorer neighbourhoods. It can strengthen social networks and help mediate differences between elected leaders and civil society groups.”

The benefits of the system however, are far from excluded to emerging markets, and some of the world’s biggest economies are actually among the leading practitioners of the system. New York City, for example, is home to the largest PB in the country, and between September 2014 and April 2015, citizens in participating districts will cast their votes on how close to $25m of the public budget will be spent. The mere fact that the system has made its way to such a major city is proof that participatory budgeting is not just a means of eradicating poverty and giving poorer citizens a voice, but represents a genuine alternative to traditional public spending.

“PB helps communities spend money more efficiently, builds local leadership, and connects communities to the process of governance, resulting in deeper civic participation”, says Lerner. “More than 25 years of research on PB from around the world show that governments who value civic engagement and democracy should try PB.”

Supporters have been quick to flag the benefits a PB can bring for citizens, and claim that the model improves governance, empowers those in the community and builds solidarity. However, the advantages for practising governments and institutions are arguably even greater, in that participatory budgeting can build the legitimacy of public policy and build trust between citizens and state. Whether it is in Porto Alegre, Paris or even New York City, participatory budgeting has been introduced against a variety of different backdrops, with sometimes opposing ideologies.

Yet, no matter the circumstances under which the model is introduced and the exact form the system takes, the underlying objectives remain the same. In simple terms, a PB is an attractive prospect to any citizen or government with an ambition to improve governance and democratise decision-making.

Perhaps then, the most important point to be taken from public budgeting is not its effectiveness in driving projects most in need of finance, but in building the relationships shared between citizen and institutions. By looking at participatory budgeting as an important lesson in how governments and institutions can democratise spending decisions and align their goals with citizens, the model could feasibly represent a turning point for conventional public policy.

Jeffrie and Abercrombie’s ugly truth

Ornate gates guarded by cut-out Barbie and Ken lookalikes, the distinctive waft of a familiar scent and a shop so dark it’s impossible to actually see the clothing; during his 22-year tenure, Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries certainly did a good job of creating a distinctive brand.

What he didn’t do such a good job of was adapting that to a changing consumer and a market increasingly in tune to controversial comments and policies. Famed for its shallow, selective and downright discriminatory recruitment procedures (the company forked out $40m to applicants in 2004 after being accused of discriminating against minorities and placing them in back-end roles, for example), the all-American US teen retailer has found itself the target of angry protesters and lawsuit plaintiffs time and time again over recent years.

Sex was definitely selling; Abercrombie expanded from 36 stores and $50m a year in sales in 1992 to 1,000 stores and over $4.5bn in sales two decades later

And what was once a successful marketing strategy collapsed around Jeffries, who stepped down from the CEO throne in December after being stripped of his chairman duties earlier in the year under mounting investor pressure. Profits had plunged (falling 77 percent in FY 2013 according to Bloomberg) while same store sales had fallen consistently for 11 straight quarters, dropping seven percent in the US and a substantial 15 percent in Europe in the third quarter of 2014, according to The Independent. A&F was, and still is, feeling the hangover of its former success.

Updating the model business plan
Looking back, success was undeniable. Between 1995 and 2008, sales grew 20-fold and net income increased more than 56-fold each year, according to a report by Business Week. Jeffries transformed Abercrombie from a sporting store aimed at outdoorsy types – with its 1892 origins in fishing and hunting – to a preppy apparel brand targeted at the popular college crowd, with stores decked out like clubs and raunchy, black and white photos featuring semi-naked models lining its walls. “It was really a phenomenal success story, he really grew that brand”, says Dwight Hill, Partner at MacMillan Doolittle.

Sex was definitely selling; Abercrombie expanded from 36 stores and $50m a year in sales in 1992 to 1,000 stores and over $4.5bn in sales two decades later. However, that overt sensuality and exclusionary approach wasn’t to last. When a controversial 2006 interview with Jeffries resurfaced in 2013, the company attracted animosity from far and wide. “We hire good-looking people in our stores. Because good-looking people attract other good-looking people”, he had said in the interview with Salon.com. “A lot of people don’t belong and they can’t belong. Are we exclusionary? Absolutely”, he said, proud of the retailer’s ‘cool kids’ feel and its refusal to sell anything above a size 10.

Those comments certainly sparked attention, including a 68,000 strong change.org petition. According to Hill it was largely to blame for the store’s demise. “One factor certainly has to be the negative press they’ve received from the comments Jeffries has made”, he says. Jeffries apologised for his words in a Facebook post in May 2013 shortly after having been shot into the media limelight, stating that Abercrombie was “completely opposed to any discrimination.”

But a quick glance at their portfolio of slip-ups would suggest differently. In 2004, Abercrombie found itself entangled in several lawsuits after being accused of discriminating against non-white job candidates. In 2009, a former employee with a prosthetic arm sued the retailer for $12,000 after she was reportedly banned from having a customer-facing role in the London store. Abercrombie later found itself the target of yet more bad press when internal company emails, leaked by Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, revealed that employees at the Milan store had been forced to do push-ups and squats as a punishment.

Mike Jeffries, former CEO of Ambercrombie & Fitch
Mike Jeffries, former CEO of Ambercrombie & Fitch

Prescriptive dress codes for shop floor staff (referred to as models) have meanwhile seen the retailer face several anti-employment discrimination rulings after sacking, or not hiring, Muslim women wearing hijabs. Abercrombie defended its actions by claiming its Look Policy was at the “heart of [its] business model”, The Huffington Post reported. They weren’t the only controversies Abercrombie found itself caught up in; a range of t-shirts in 2002 provoked a boycott by Asian American groups accusing Abercrombie of stereotyping, while black and white advertising shots featuring half-naked models have come under fire. Its quarterly magazine back in the early noughties was labelled “soft porn” and sparked protests.

Death of a once successful strategy
In spite of all that, some believe the strategy was a successful one. Among those is Robin Lewis, co-author of The New Rules of Retail. “While Michael Jeffries was largely vilified for his exclusionary attitude… he nevertheless created and sustained a premier position in the youth market for about 25 years”, he says. Brad Smith, Partner at digital marketing consultancy Codeless Interactive agrees, arguing that polarising strategies work. “Middle of the road becomes boring… we start paying attention to things at the extreme ends of the spectrum”, he wrote in an article on brand positioning strategy.

In a 2013 Forbes article, marketing consultant Roger Dooley argued that Abercrombie’s strategy was comparable to Apple’s in that both target a specific crowd and market themselves as cooler alternatives to competitors. He added: “every time a critic trumpets, ‘Mike Jeffries is terrible for not wanting overweight or unattractive people in his stores’, they are propagating the exact branding message he’s trying to promote.”

That strategy clearly worked for a while, but its days were numbered and the tactics started to backfire. Margaret Bogenrief, Founding Partner of ACM Partners, wrote in an article for Business Insider that the exclusionary policies have partly caused the demise in an industry now embracing plus sized shoppers – which, according to her, account for 67 percent of US clothes buyers. It does indeed seem to be an inability to adapt to a changing market that’s driving the decline; something even Lewis, a supporter of the original strategy, recognises. “When [Jeffries] launched A&F some 25 years ago, it was perfectly positioned for the young consumers of that period”, he says. But “by not reacting quickly enough to pivot the brand, A&F’ original core sexy, young and cool customers grew out of A&F”, and the retailer failed to get the “younger siblings” on board.

It seems that one of the areas it didn’t seem able to adapt to was an increasingly ethically in tune market, as Hill underlines: “I think that particularly now, in more of a social environment and in a world of conscious capitalism, people are very in tune to this and will certainly make choices as a result of their beliefs”, he says.

It was certainly bad press and controversial policies that Abercrombie investor Glenn Welling, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Engaged Capital, cited as being partly behind the downfall. “Publicity around Mr Jeffries’ past public statements… [has] caused unnecessary controversy, no doubt damaging the company’s public profile, employee morale, and likely sales,” he wrote in an incensed letter in late 2013, pushing for Jeffries to step down.

Struggling to adapt
Abercrombie isn’t the only example of a controversial retailer past its time; American Apparel has hit the headlines again and again for the controversy surrounding former CEO Dov Charney, as well as the retailer’s overtly sexual advertising – which, according to Brian Sozzi of Belus Capital Advisors, has had its heyday. He told ABC News its scandalous advertising “was great when the company launched, because there wasn’t anything in the market like that. But now people have had enough.”

Abercrombie and Fitch

Like Jeffries, Charney established what he called ‘our look’ – in American Apparel’s case, women au naturel in raunchy poses – and it seems to have become out-dated. The company has failed to achieve a full-year profit since 2009, while comparable store sales dropped seven percent in the third quarter of 2014 and losses hit $19.2m.

Both retailers, limited by a now seemingly obsolete niche, appear to have struggled to adapt to new consumers keenly aware of bad policies and press. Abercrombie seems to be trying to widen its market, promising in late 2013 to introduce larger sizes and more recently stating it would modify its stores through quieter music, better lighting, less of the overly-enthusiastic perfume spritzing and mannequins instead of semi-naked models, according to a report by Adage. But it’s arguably too little too late, at least according to Lewis: “All of his attempts at repositioning now are simply tactics that he’s throwing against the wall to see if any stick”, he says.

Despite global net sales falling 12 percent to $911.4m in the third quarter of 2014 – and stock plummeting to its lowest level in a year at $30.31 – Hill is optimistic Abercrombie’s fate can be turned around. He believes the message that shoppers are “part of the in crowd” could still work if it’s executed in the right way: “I think it can continue to work well, but they do have to work on targeting what that millennial shopper is looking for”, he says.

But it seems what that “millennial shopper” is looking for is so far from Abercrombie’s original ethos that adapting to it would mean destroying the established brand image entirely. The ugly truth is that these apparel stores attempting to market their products to a young, ‘good-looking’ crowd seem to have become ironically passed it, as they find themselves morphing into the very unattractive and uncool things they once sought to exclude their glorified offerings from.

Royal Crown Insurance Company promotes Cyprus’ return to prosperity

Royal Crown Insurance Company was incorporated as a private Cypriot insurance company in 1999, and every year since we have printed annual diaries to be given as New Year gifts to clients and associates. Certainly not an uncommon company practice. What distinguishes the Royal Crown diary is that a theme is selected each year that reflects and enhances current events or concerns, whether it is political, cultural, financial or even religious. Our inspired creative team works hard to create a unique journal each year. By now our diaries have become cult and are sought after by Royal Crown’s friends and others besides.

Selecting our diary subject for 2015 was easy, as recent developments on our island bore the need to place our homeland at the forefront of our very first activity for the new year. Cyprus is going through some of the hardest times in its history, and so the need for harmony and cohesion are more important than ever before. As such, even a tiny corporate gift can inspire a feeling of patriotism.

The good news is that, being a small economy, Cyprus has proved more resilient than people have expected

Troubled past
A quick run through of the history of Cyprus shows that it has hardly ever found peace. Its geographical position – right in the crossing of three continents – has always rendered it a target for conquerors. Its modern history begins in 1960 when it was declared an independent republic, but bliss lasted merely a couple of years before the divergence in the wants and needs of the Greek and Turkish communities became apparent – each too emotionally bonded to their respective mother countries to sustain a peaceful coexistence.

Various commotions took place and the founding constitution was impugned. A coup d’état against President Makarios III within a week led to the Turkish invasion of 1974, which resulted in the occupation of 37 percent of Cyprian land by the Turkish army.

This past year marked the 40th anniversary of this division, as well 40 years of failed discussions and negotiation for a fair and viable settlement of what is now rightfully named ‘The Cyprus problem’. Our capital, Nicosia, remains the last divided capital in Europe, while reunification efforts are at a standstill with the prospect of permanent partition looming in the background.

There was little in way of respite last year, with 2014 an annus horribilis for the country due to its economic troubles. In March 2013, Cyprus became the fifth country in the single-currency area to seek rescue by the European stability mechanism. A huge fiscal deficit, together with an ailing banking sector largely dependent on emergency liquidity assistance from the European Central Bank, placed the country very close to bankruptcy.

The terms of the European creditors’ bail-out included not just the usual demands for austerity measures and significant reforms, but also a shocking banking ‘bail-in’ – a deposit haircut so that uninsured depositors would absorb bank losses for our banks recapitalisation. The country’s second-largest bank was dissolved and absorbed into the largest bank, banks were closed for two weeks and capital movement control measures were implemented. Everyone held their breath on the devastating effect this would have.

Long road to recovery
A year and half later, the economy is suffering but is no longer in intensive care. The good news is that, being a small economy, Cyprus has proved more resilient than people have expected. The reforms applied by the government regarding fiscal policies are steadily showing positive results. Rating agencies have been upgrading our prospects and our banks have passed the ECB stress tests. Cyprus has been able to re-enter the international capital markets quicker than expected, and generally the outlook for the economy is positive, rebutting various projections to the contrary.

Of course, for the average financially desolate person or company, the country’s good performance and adherence to the memorandum of understanding has made no difference. We have unfortunately seen various small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) having to close down or severely reduce expenses.

The unemployment levels are still depressing, especially among young graduates, and a large number of our people have to depend on community groceries and other charities for their everyday needs. The continuing uncertainty around the banking sector means that growth cannot be changed in the near future. Most importantly, there are quite a few challenges to be met before we can exit the three-year programme that has imposed stringent austerity and restructuring reform measures. Each tranche of aid depends on performance evaluations by the Troika delegates.

Furthermore, due to a foreclosure bills saga, one tranche of the bailout was withheld. The foreclosure laws may or may not be effective in tackling the matter of our mounting non-performing loans, a vital step in the stabilisation of the banking sector. Two other huge areas we have to handle to the satisfaction of our lenders, and which have already stirred political mayhem inwards are the formation of a long overdue national health system and the privitisation of semi-governmental organisations.

Even though we have won plaudits for the economic reforms already in place, we are well aware that a consensus should be achieved between political parties in order to avoid delay in the approval from Troika of the framework for these highly significant reforms.

Certain sectors of the economy are struggling, but thankfully there were no substantial negative effects in others areas, making our business environment seem less gloomy. The tourism industry is still going strong, as Cyprus is, despite everything, still rightly regarded as an attractive holiday destination. Our services sector, the one that had established Cyprus as a business services centre and directly led to it being declared a small economic miracle in the years after the island division, is still the most active.

Law and accounting firms are still extremely busy. Company formation, tax planning, trusts, foreign exchange trading and fund administration are all strong segments of the business services industry and the country has continued to attract and retain business regardless of the downturn. Foreign investors have found opportunities at this time, and plans are in place for the development of large projects, such as luxury resorts, golf courses and the like. Last but not least, we should mention the prospect of Cyprus as a natural gas exporter in the future, as recent drilling off our shores has located evidence of enough reserves to allow us to hope.

Impressive endurance
The insurance industry did not escape unscathed from the economic turmoil, even though insurance companies’ deposits suffered a lower haircut rate than all others and fortunately all of them managed to retain the required solvency margins and comply with the upcoming Solvency II Directive requirements.

However, decreases in wages, the people’s financial troubles and overall financial conservatism adversely affected most insurance companies’ results during 2013-14. On the other hand, the insurance product remains a commodity, as people want to avoid further potential financial hardship caused by unexpected events – meaning that our industry is quite busy and active and has an important role to play both in the economic and social sense.

The industry has been demonstrating impressive endurance, proving it is built on healthy foundations. It has continued to fulfill its obligations adequately and has provided liquidity to the market at times of financial hardship. Several people took the opportunity to cash in on their life policies enabling them to unburden somewhat from the haircut. Moreover, the insurance industry contributed to growth and social cohesion as it provides security to troubled SMEs and families. It is also preparing to play a significant part in the development and implementation of the national health system, thereby confirming the industry’s bold presence in the social structure.

In times of crises, and need for holistic restructuring of a country’s economy, it is important to take a step back and turn inwards, towards our home. We are going through critical times on this island, in political, financial and social terms and the need to prepare and secure is prominent. Just like innovative artistic and cultural activities are popping up, for the purpose of motivation and encouragement for a restart, the financial sector, which includes the insurance industry, should become creative, and discover new roads in protection and security for the people of Cyprus.

It is often said that the backbone of the Cypriot economy is our SMEs, which are often formed and run by families. We are doing our bit for struggling family businesses to stay afloat. In business terms, we wish to adopt a simpler way of underwriting insurance – back to basics. We try to move away from rigid contracts and into more flexible arrangements And while operating within very strict practical specification within our ISO certification and enjoying the support of some of the most financially robust European reinsurance companies, building long-term relationships with them based on trust and good faith, we retain our human, traditional, old-fashioned Cypriot face. Honesty, transparency, integrity and fairness, and for 2015, a very pure sense of affection for our country, its turmoil, the people and their hardships, will be guiding us towards fulfilling our corporate responsibility.

Part one, Greece’s future: eurozone exit ‘would be a disaster’

On January 25, Greece will hold parliamentary elections: a move which has generated uncertainty in the eurozone, given the potential for the radical left party Syriza to emerge as the largest party. World Finance speaks to Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University, to discuss what this means for the country’s debt-ridden economy.

World Finance: Steve, Greece’s debt crisis: what’s the current state of play?
Steve Hanke: They haven’t been as austere as they should have been. Government expenditures have gone up by about 11 percent since 2006; now that doesn’t sound very austere to most people that know the meaning of that word.

Also, we’ve had the economy decline by about 13 percent. If we look at the relative size of the government compared to what it was in 2006, it’s moved up from about 45 percent of GDP to about 60 percent. So government spending has continued to grow, the economy has shrunk, and as a result the government takes up more economic space than in 2006.

And there appear to be considerable structural problems in the Greek economy: they haven’t adjusted to the crisis.

part-two-greeces-future-theres-been-enormous-corruption-waste-fraud-and-abuse

Watch part two in our video series:

Part two, Greece’s future: ‘There’s been enormous corruption, waste, fraud, and abuse’

World Finance: As you say, the Greek public debt has increased, and now exceeds 170 percent of GDP. The burden of this debt is so high that future Greek governments will not be able to continue to service it. Greece is in a no-win situation, surely?

Steve Hanke: One thing that they could do is make some attempt to: one, control the government; and two, do the kind of structural reforms that allow for the economy to adjust, and in fact deliver an internal devaluation that makes the economy more competitive.

I mean: look at Ireland; look at Spain; look at Portugal.

World Finance: So what do you think a euro exit would mean for Greece – and in fact the rest of Europe?
Steve Hanke: It would be a disaster for Greece, of course; because the first thing that would happen would be that their fiscal primary surplus would go into deficit, because financing costs would go up a lot. So the fiscal situation would get worse.

If they had their own currency and started to devalue it, they wouldn’t gain much by way of competitiveness, because you’d have a lot of inflation. And they’d be pretty much cut off from the international capital markets. I don’t think international capital markets would welcome a Greece with a Greek drachma currency.

World Finance: Well since German banks’ exposure to Greece is far from insignificant, do you think German politicians should reconsider their stance that Greece is not systematically important?
Steve Hanke: The German private banks are quietly unwinding their positions and exposure to Greece. And what you’re going to end up with I think, is much more European Central Bank exposure.

The real problem here is that you have an enormous moral hazard associated with having a country like Greece

World Finance: For the sake of argument, do you think what it all really boils down to is the concern of EU leaders not that Greece will leave the euro and fail, but that in fact Greece will leave the euro and prosper, leaving other countries to follow suit?
Steve Hanke: I think that’s a farcical thing; I don’t think that they would succeed if they left.

The real problem here is that you have an enormous moral hazard associated with having a country like Greece. And this comes down, by the way… if you look at the World Bank Doing Business report, in terms of protecting contracts and reliability of delivery and contracts, Greece ranks 155 out of 189 countries.

So you’re dealing with a country that, shall we say, has a reliability problem.

If you have a country with a reliability problem, and they’re part of the eurozone, there’s a huge moral hazard associated with this relationship between the EU and Greece.

Since they joined the euro, government expenditures have just exploded. They calculate in Greece that they will be bailed out.

World Finance: So come January 25th with these snap elections, you don’t think it’s likely that Greece will leave the eurozone?
Steve Hanke: This is a lot of talk and hot air, because they’re not exiting anything. And 74 percent of the public wants to stay in the eurozone. So if public opinion is behind something, no politician that’s rational takes that away from a public that wants it.

Goldman Sachs leads $56m funding into Asia’s Big Data

The bank is providing the majority of a $56m funding package for Antuit, which provides data analytics in the fields of marketing, sales and supply chains. Indian investor Zodius Capital, which has already bought into the firm, is also providing part of the funding.

Antuit is set to use the funding to make a series of acquisitions in its path towards growth, staving off potential competition from US big data companies that could move into Asia in the future. Goldman Sachs’ co-head of private equity for the region, Ankur Sahu, is taking up a place on the company’s board.

The company has already expanded beyond Asia with offices in the US and
New Zealand

“The rapidly growing $10bn-plus big data services market is ripe to be organised and consolidated under a market leader”, Arijit Sengupta, Antuit CEO, said in a statement. “Goldman Sachs, an experienced investor in technology and services, brings us not only capital, but also deep expertise around how to grow into such a company and a global network of corporate relationships which will be instrumental to Antuit’s success.”

The company has already expanded beyond Asia with offices in the US and New Zealand. Its presence in Singapore and India put it in the fairly unique position of being able to source relatively cheap, Asia-based data analysts for its clients – such as Hyatt Hotels – from across the world.

Singapore has been emerging as the data hub for Asia over recent years, with the industry set to account for $750m of its economy by 2018 according to the government, the FT reports.

Goldman Sachs has already pumped significant investment into the field in the US, providing $100m to cloud-based Applied Predictive Technologies in 2013 and $90m to AvePoint in 2014. This marks its first steps into it’s the sector in Asia, however, and it’s likely to help drive substantial growth in both Singapore and beyond.

Hedge Fund Awards 2014

Fund of Hedge Funds

Europe

Best Distressed Securities
Pioneer Restructuring Fund (Pioneer Investment Management)

Best Emerging Markets
Hermes BPK Greater China Fund (Hermes Investment Management)

Best Event Driven
LFP Alteram Event Fund (La Francaise AM)

Best Fixed Income
Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund (Ignis Asset Management)

Best Global Macro
GHF Sicav Global Macro Fund (Thalìa)

Best Long/Short Equity
LO Multiadvisers Global Equity Long/Short (Lombard Odier Asset Management)

Best Market Neutral
Gottex Market Neutral Fund (Gottex Fund Management)

Best UCITS-Compliant product
Dynamic Alternative Strategies (Goldman Sachs)

Best Arbitrage
Thalia

Best Managed Futures CTA
Abbey Global (Abbey Capital)

Best Institutional Fund Provider
The Man Group

Best Managed Platform Provider
Amundi Alternative Investments

North America

Best Managed Futures CTA
AGR Power (AC Investment Management)

Best Event Driven
Perry Capital

Best Diversified
Harvest Capital Strategy

Best Fixed Income
Prestige Select Finance (Prestige Fund Management)

Best Institutional Fund Provider
Fortress Investment Group

Best Managed Platform Provider
AlphaMetrix

Asia Pacific

Best Equity Long/Short
Asian Capital Holdings Asian Equities (Banque Privee Edmond De Rothschild)

Best Institutional Fund Provider
MCP Asset Management

Best Private Client Fund Provider
Value Partners Group

Single Funds

Europe

Best Arbitrage Fund
Asgard Fixed Income Fund (Plinius Capital Management & Momas Advisors)

Best Long/Short Credit Fund
Serone Key Opportunities Fund (Serone Capital Management)

Best Distressed Securities Fund
Phoenix Fund NV (Hof Hoorneman)

Best Emerging Markets Fund
Finisterre Capital Fund (Finisterre Capital)

Best Event Driven Fund
Marwyn Value Investors MVP (Marwyn Value Investors)

Best Fixed Income Fund
LNG Europa Credit Fund (LNG Capital)

Best Global Macro Fund
Rubicon Global Fund (Rubicon Fund Management)

Best Long/Short Equity Fund
Chahine Mega Cap Europe Alpha (J Chahine Capital)

Best CTA Managed Futures fund
NS Selection-Capitrade CTA EUR (CM Capital Markets/Notz Stucki)

Best UCITS-Compliant Product
Nordea 1 Heracles Long Short MI Fund X (Metzler Asset Management GmbH)

Best Market Neutral Fund
Jackdaw Real Estate Fund (Jackdaw Capital)

North America

Best Distressed Securities Fund
HG Vora Capital Management

Best Event Driven
Jana Partners

Best Diversified Fund
Sabra Capital Partners

Nokomis Capital Master Fund (Nokomis Capital)

Best CTA Managed Futures Fund
RLA 1 Program (County Cork)

Best UCITS-Compliant Product
Southeastern Asset Management

Latin America

Best Emerging Markets Fund
BAF Latam Trade Finance Fund (BAF Capital)

Best Relative Value Fund
Long short (Perfin Investimentos)

Best Fixed Income Fund
Moneda Latin American Corporate Debt (Moneda Asset Management)

Asia Pacific

Best Fixed Income Fund
RSL Asian Fixed Income Fund (Chiliogon Asia)

Best Diversified Fund
Asuka Opportunities Fund (Asuka Asset Management)

Best Event Driven Fund
Evenstar Sub Fund (Evenstar Advisors)

Best Relative Value Fund
NARECO Commodity Low Volatility Alpha (NARECO Advisors)

Best Long Only Equity Fund
Gavekal Asian Opportunities Fund (Gavekal Capital)

Best CTA Managed Futures Fund
Vegasoul Fund (Vegasoul Capital Management)

Best Emerging Markets Fund
Chinese Mainland Focus Fund (Value Partners)

Best UCITS-Compliant Product
Gavekal Asian Opportunities UCITIS Fund (Gavekal Capital)

The Legal Awards 2015

The global law sector is facing a time of transition. Traditional bricks-and-mortar firms are struggling to cope with an incoming wave of alternative business models, and top fee-earners are either sinking or swimming based upon their ability to embrace technological advances in the field. Meanwhile, demand for law services isn’t expanding as quickly as supply in many international markets.

Yet despite these vigorous challenges, 2014 was a stellar year for the global law sector. Profits per all partners at the UK’s top 10 firms shot up from £840,000 ($1.32m) to £925,000 ($1.45m). The net profit margin of US top tier firms hit a whopping 47 percent, and chargeable hours went up across all international regions.

While many smaller firms have crumbled under the weight of big-name paralegal débutantes, the industry’s undeniable successes in 2014 was achieved by those dynamic firms that addressed the key issues facing the industry head-on. Firms are finally capturing a degree of scale through consolidation, and they are embracing new, cutting-edge IT systems that are revolutionising an industry that has largely gone unchanged for two centuries. If the sector continues to respond favourably to such changes, it will continue to be a hugely exciting time for the global law industry.

Supply and demand
Throughout the course of 2013, research by Legal Week found that the globe’s top 50 law firms saw their average profits shrink by 0.5 percent – while turnovers rose by nearly seven percent. By and large, that’s because firms have been finding it difficult to manage their costs within the fee structures clients have come to demand. As a result, many mid-size firms have been forced to pursue aggressive restructuring strategies that have seen dozens of support roles eliminated.

In 2014, the industry appeared to have turned a corner – and those reactionary restructuring exercises have somewhat paid off. In the next year, The Law Society estimates UK legal services in particular will have powered out of the global recession posting an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent. Much of the industry’s triumph stems from the ability of UK firms to win an increasing share of the global market. With strategic international expansion and domestic regulatory changes permitting a major rise in external investments, analysts reckon many UK firms are well placed to win an even larger share of business in 2015.

Against all odds, global firms (and particularly US firms) have also seen business pick up considerably as a result of the now receding global recession. Because of the intensive financial constraints and activity restrictions being placed upon international businesses, in-house legal teams have taken a major beating. General counsel have been forced to shed jobs left, right and centre – opening up the door for professional law firms to take on contractual work that companies no longer have the time or resources to complete. What’s more, increasing regulation and compliance oversight surrounding life-or-death facilities like financial reporting, has meant European firms need more legal advice than ever before. As previously stated, many law firms are consequently experiencing a rise in demand for more affordable services. Yet with 60 percent of global firms preparing to increase their chargeable hours in the next 12 months, according to a recent RBS survey, that means firms have had to track down savings elsewhere so as to avoid cutting into their bottom lines.

Paralegal presence
One way that firms have successfully trimmed costs in 2014 is by developing a lower and more variable cost base aligned to the activity levels of various clients. Yet by and large, global firms have mostly been able to drive profitability through an increased reliance on paralegals. So-called ‘non-solicitor lawyers’ are taking on more work than ever before – and over the course of the last year their role in the sector has continued to evolve. Paralegal firms cost less, and the typical billing rates prove an invaluable savings against the valuable time of costly fee earners. In 2015 30 percent of firms are anticipating to see an increase in their reliance upon paralegals.

In cases where more stringent legal credentials are required, European firms have begun subcontracting an unprecedented amount of work to regional bases. Legal process outsourcing (LPO) companies have also exploded across Southeast Asia, and have earned a sterling reputation over the last couple of years for their ability to take on commoditised matters more efficiently than many domestic firms because of their highly systemised (and often automated) frameworks.

Last year, the value of the LPO sector hit an all-time high at $2.4bn. Yet research by the London School of Economics is forecasting that worth to increase steadily over the coming months, with the industry’s biggest players predicted to expand into higher-value work in 2015. Top city firms » have also gone on to establish process units in cheaper sites across the UK and Europe to tackle less important aspects of business, such as immigration services. In turn, that has left firm bases and top fee-earners a chance to take on bigger clients utilising a whole new range of affordable umbrella services.

A new generation
One strategic modification the sector did benefit from in 2014 was a shift in the number of lateral hires taking place. For too long, firms were staking much of their financial success upon bringing in experienced fee-earners in a desperate bid to increase overall corporate value. Yet in reality, it usually takes between 18-24 months before lateral hires are able to generate any sort of noticeable cash flow. It’s been estimated that around a fifth of those hires don’t make it past their first two years at any given firm; therefore, the sector has finally begun to realise that lateral hires are an increasingly risky basis for domestic growth.

$2.4bn

Value of the LPO sector, 2014

At the end of 2014, just a third of law firms surveyed said they anticipated the number of lateral hires to increase in 2015. Top talent is being retained relatively easily, with the majority of firms protecting chargeable hours and fees from taking any sort of hits as a result of industrial constraints. Meanwhile, firms are investing more than ever in traineeships in order to foster young talent and capitalise on a degree of corporate allegiance. In 2014, a vast majority of those opportunities were created at international partner firms and regional bases in a bid to cater to brash young hires keen on habitual changes of scenery. In order to make those traineeship programmes bear fruit, global firms have become utterly reliant upon establishing new relationships.

In recent times, dozens of non-sector firms have taken their first sorties into the global law sector. Using alternative business models, insurance giants, popular TV loan companies and even high-street banks have introduced a range of new legal services to compete with old-fashioned, brick-and-mortar law firms. Some smaller firms are experiencing huge losses in ordinarily reliable revenue streams like conveyancing services as a result. But other law firms have responded in kind by finally choosing to invest in infrastructural upgrades capable of competing with those alternative models. Particular emphasis is being placed on information technology. A 2013 survey by PwC stressed an “urgent need” for the top 10 UK law firms to innovate their IT infrastructure. This year, 80 percent of firms across the globe have answered the call, pressing for technology upgrades that are already making a huge impact on corporate efficiency. For the first time ever, major firms are prioritising infrastructure upgrades that ensure all staff have secure access to case-critical information outside company premises. New metadata technology is providing firms with higher predictability on costs, which means they have a more controlled grip on outgoing expenditures. As cultural shifts continue to press demand for IT-savvy services, law firms are finally battling to stay relevant. That’s bringing in more business, and it’s also cutting costs.

Overall, the global law sector has enjoyed an uncharacteristically profitable 12 months, and so it is the perfect time to praise the high achievers in our Legal Awards. Average profit per equity partner shot up by 10 percent, and new industrial upstarts posted revenue growth in excess of 84 percent. In turn, older institutions are finally embracing change. They’re investing in new talent rather than fickle veterans, and capitalising on outsourcing capabilities that have the ability to drastically cut costs. So long as the sector learns from its successes in 2014, and law firms don’t revert to the frustratingly self-indulgent business practices that pre-date the recession, there’s no reason growth shouldn’t be even greater in 2015.

Turkey’s insurance sector strengthens as investor confidence grows

Turkey is currently the fastest-emerging market in Europe and the OECD. The average GDP growth rate in the past decade was five percent, the fastest among OECD countries, which grew at an average of 1.7 percent (see Fig. 1). The OECD estimates that Turkey will be the third highest growing economy after China and India by 2017.

Such estimates shouldn’t come as a great surprise. Since 2002 Turkey’s economy has nearly quadrupled its GDP. In the same period, export volumes have more than quadrupled, amounting to around $170bn. Turkey is also one of the world’s biggest markets with a population of 76 million and a labour force of 28 million. It has the highest youth population and fourth largest labour force when compared to EU countries (see Fig. 2).

Turkey is positioned as the geographic, economic and political bridge straddling both Asia and Europe. As such, it would be impossible for the country not to be affected by the number of issues in the Middle East. Nevertheless, it is expected that it will be relatively less affected than its neighbours, given its economic strength.

International investors
Turkey continues to be a safe harbour for international investors. In the last 10 years it has attracted more than $100bn in foreign direct investment (FDI, see Fig. 3) and ranked as the 13th most attractive FDI destination in the world. In the first half of 2014 FDI increased by 28 percent and totalled $6.73bn.

There are a number of other attributes that make Turkey an attractive investment point for foreign investors. The country has Europe’s lowest debt-to-GDP ratio at 35 percent, it is a high growth potential country with low household debt and it is going through several important infrastructure reforms. The Turkish economy is the sixth largest in Europe and 17th largest in the world. And in a couple of years it is expected to be a $1trn economy, much bigger than most of the European countries.

Nominal GDP change

This combined with favourable demographics, such as 50 percent of the population being aged under 30, creates strong momentum for the economy, and of course for the insurance market. Zurich Insurance Group entered into the Turkish market through acquiring TEB Insurance a local insurance company in 2008. It has since reaped the benefits of the country’s economic and structural growth.

Important structural reforms have also been implemented in the banking sector over the past 10 years. These reforms had a major impact on Turkey’s resistance to economic shocks and crises. The structural reforms, hastened by Turkey’s EU accession process, have paved the way for comprehensive changes in a number of areas. The main objectives of these efforts were to increase the role of the private sector in the economy, to enhance the efficiency and resiliency of the financial sector, and to place the social security system on a more solid foundation.

At the start of August, Turkey has its first ever directly elected president, after its existing Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, won the presidential election, vowing to build a new Turkey. However, in broad terms, no change is expected in the country’s economic vision, which prioritises growth, unemployment, and structural reforms.

The country is also under great infrastructure transformation, heading to 2023, with giant investments on its way. Projects include a third bridge across the Bosporus, a new Istanbul airport, and a high-speed railway system. With its young population and potential, Turkey is still one of the most exciting countries for investors, with the insurance market in particular one of the most attractive. Turkey’s life and non-life insurance markets are making profits that are leading to healthy growth in the sector, according to Fitch Ratings’ report Turkish Insurance Sector – Non-Life Back to Profit, Life Performance Steady.

Focus on insurance
According to the Insurance Association of Turkey (TSB), out of the 59 insurers active in Turkey’s insurance market, 44 are either foreign-owned or partnered, pointing to a highly popular area of investment for foreign companies looking for new growth markets. The insurance sector is one of the biggest FDI areas in the country. Turkish insurers have benefited from a period of political stability and policy decisions and incentives that have encouraged savings and the use of insurance.

The insurance market in Turkey grew by 22 percent per annum between 2001 and 2012. The sector is approximately a $10bn market and if you look to the fact that the insurance premium to GDP is about one percent, the penetration is still relatively low. The combined effect creates a very strong environment for further investment and, we can comfortably say, a bright future for Turkey’s insurance industry overall.

Turkey's labour force

When you take Zurich Insurance’s position in the Turkish market, we think that we are very well positioned in terms of our multi-segment, multi-product and multi-channel approach.

We have a five percent market share when normalised for segments we do not actively participate in. Zurich Turkey is specialised in bancassurance, but also very active in other distribution channels. We have a wide coverage of distribution with approximately 2,000 sales points, including 1,200 bank branches and 500 agents and brokers. Zurich Turkey offers a wide range of products from retail to commercial and corporate, with approximately one million active customers.

In the last two years the company has seen a successful turnaround. We have restructured to enable us to compete with international and local players. Although the growth is important for us, sustainable profitability is even more significant.

At Zurich, we generate about $250m premium. The company has gone through a restructuring over the last two years with customers being the main focus point. World Finance has chosen our company as its Best Non-life Insurance Company in Turkey for two years in a row, which proves that we are on the right track in terms of the restricting programme.

Social values
Our corporate responsibility strategy is an integral part of our overall strategy. It is about sustainable value creation, one of our core values, as set out in our code of conduct. We aim to create sustainable value for each of our main stakeholder groups by focusing on what we do best – actions we need to take to achieve our strategic objectives. Our mission is clear: to help our customers understand and protect themselves from risk. This mission is anchored in insurance’s core role: to transfer and manage risk.

It is also an important issue for Zurich to be a responsible company as it is fundamental to our long-term sustainability to become the best global insurer as measured by our customers, employees, shareholders and the communities in which we live and work. In Turkey we also adopt the core corporate social responsibility (CSR) values of Zurich and we continue our work. In the last two years we have implemented a number of different CSR projects, especially to support orphan children.

FDI in Turkey

One such project is our continued support of Children’s Village. Children’s Village supports children in need of protection by providing a safe family environment for orphan children. Zurich employees as well as Zurich top executives visited the village for a one-day festival and – as well planting fruit trees – they played, talked and had fun with the children. The aim was to create a long-term, sustainable project that is managed by the children to provide fruit and vegetables for the village.

Moreover, Zurich employees organised a fund raising activity to support education needs of orphans following the mine disaster, which happened in Soma, May 2014. We worked together with one of the most reliable and oldest education based foundations, Turk Education Foundation (TED in Turkish), to deliver funds raised by our employees to families in need.

We are the insurance sponsor of the İstanbul Foundation of Culture and Arts (İKSV), leading art foundation in Turkey. Starting from 2014, Zurich is the insurance sponsor of İKSV with a long-term partnership.

The foundation is leading the art and cultural life in Turkey with many projects and festivals. For instance, during the Istanbul Film Festival 2014, more than 135,000 people watched 357 international films.

Our dedication to our CSR schemes is only matched by our passion for the insurance sector, which following a successful 2014 for the Turkish sector, is only going to improve even further heading into 2015.