The key to managing payroll across multiple tax jurisdictions

Global payroll, simply put, is the management of the entire company’s payroll function – for all international offices from one central location.

Enabled by cloud technology, global payroll is transforming how multinationals manage their business operations. Gone are the days of having to recruit multiple in-country service providers and manage multiple contracts, deadlines and reporting. Now it is possible to work with one single service provider who looks after all your company’s payroll needs.

It is important that those who are managing your centralised outsourced system also have a global overview. This requires having a mix of on-the-ground expertise, as well as a centralised system

World Finance spoke to Christine Keily, Chief Tax and Payroll Officer at Immedis, a global payroll and employment tax provider, about how paying an international workforce while simultaneously navigating varying employment laws can be an overwhelming challenge. “For employment law considerations companies have to be really careful. What works in one country may not be compliant in another one so you really have to be mindful of what you are doing.’’

A multijurisdictional challenge
This challenge of ‘keeping on top of legislation in multiple tax jurisdictions’ was the top result in a recent Immedis survey conducted among global payroll and finance professionals when asked, ‘what is your biggest global payroll challenge?’. In the results, a staggering 41 percent of participants stated this was their biggest concern, followed by 37 percent answering ‘multiple deadlines, processes, contracts and reporting’.

These challenges were followed by ‘fragmented reporting across multiple countries’ with 16 percent of respondents highlighting this problem and 6 percent pointing to ‘late payments, bank charges and FX fluctuations’ as another key concern.

Keily indicates to World Finance that she is not at all surprised by these results, stating: “For any international organisation, it is simply not possible to have enough knowledge on legislation in every location which you operate in. This is why it is important to be able to rely on the expertise and oversight that comes with a fully managed, outsourced, global payroll partner like Immedis.” Keily’s team of qualified tax experts around the world provide value at every level to ensure their clients’ businesses remain compliant with the legislation in each jurisdiction they operate in.

Centralising payroll operations in one location is also more efficient than dealing with multiple providers across multiple regions. With the advent of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), centralising information in one place makes even more sense. The GDPR rules apply not only to the EU, but to companies that interact with or manage the data of someone based in the EU, or information that is transmitted into the EU. “From an international payroll perspective, companies will have to have a global view and centralised approach to the GDPR and impose the same approach which meets the GDPR criteria, no matter where they are,” Keily explained. “You don’t know at what point in time you may be subjected to GDPR rules.”

Payroll information is particularly sensitive, so ensuring that businesses are GDPR compliant in terms of finances is important. “The increasing data risks are something we keep at the forefront of our technology, and our software is built and adapted with this in mind,” said Keily. “Globalisation and the increase in a global workforce in various locations can open up risks in the transmission of data across the internet and what we hold in our computers.”

While compliance commands the majority of attention surrounding payroll issues, cost is also a significant factor. Centralising payroll has logistical benefits in terms of time, which by extension is a cost saving. Utilising the services of an expert payroll provider also reduces the chance that a mistake will be made. Fines for breaching regulations vary greatly from region to region, and in some cases, penalties will far outweigh what it would have cost to do the process correctly the first time. Of course, there is also the reputational damage, which may be impossible to quantify. “When you get into that area where you have sacrificed compliance to save on cost, you will often find those people will end up paying more to sort it out than they would have done to get it right from the start,” said Keily.

Software in the cloud
With this increase in international operations, Immedis has developed an approach designed to address new business needs. Keily explained how the company has adopted a centralised approach that uses cutting-edge technology to provide global insight into a business’ payroll: “Our innovative software gives our clients a plethora of benefits and insights including: bespoke global reporting; automation of repetitive manual tasks that historically would be prone to human error; reducing payroll cycle times; reducing the margin for errors; and the ability to visualise payroll data in a way that offers huge insights and predictive analysis to present to the board.”

While finding experts for an individual region may be easy, coordinating their efforts towards the same goal are not. With so many decisions now having to be made at a global level, Keily affirmed that centralising is the key to navigating challenges at the corporate employer level. She said: “If you are just dealing with outsourced providers in each separate location, you are dealing with the expectation that, as the employer, you have a lot of local knowledge. Whereas if you are working on a global, centralised approach, you are dealing with someone who knows your limitation as a global employer, as you cannot possibly have enough knowledge for every location you are dealing in. It’s simply not possible, and we know that, so you need to be able to rely on the expertise and oversight that comes with the centralisation.”

Tax experts on the ground
Keily added that it is important that those who are managing your centralised outsourced system also have a global overview. This requires having a mix of on-the-ground expertise, as well as a centralised system that is capable of looking at a payroll service. Even greater benefits can be felt by consolidating finance, human resources and other systems into one. “For instance, if one area of the business has sent an employee abroad and HR doesn’t even have knowledge of this, it’s going to cause huge problems,” Keily said. “Or if someone from finance comes across this and finds there are huge costs involved in the management of the compliance of this, which wasn’t budgeted for previously, then there are going to be more issues.”

Another key benefit to centralising and collating all these services is the peace of mind and security it offers to both businesses and individual employees. Keily said when employers are looking at employees in multiple locations, a centralised system gives the employee a sense of consistency. “If you’ve got the one platform and you access it and it’s the same wherever you go, there is a feeling of security and reliability. Further, there may not be the same concerns involved if there was a whole new system to try and navigate and everything was different.”

Ultimately, security is one of the major reasons why businesses expand internationally. Although the focus is normally on elements like supply chains and market reliance, this pales into insignificance if a business’ back end is not up to shape. With a centralised payroll solution, however, businesses can focus their energy on the pressing challenges of a new market, without becoming overwhelmed with compliance requirements

Compagnie Monégasque de Banque CEO: Listening is our key competence

Werner Peyer is CEO of Compagnie Monégasque de Banque – a private bank in Monaco managing €12.5bn in wealth for its clients. He discusses the evolution in the private banking industry, how to strike a balance between service reliability and future-proofing function, and his strategy for the next three years.

World Finance: Monaco is renowned in the private banking sector; how has the industry changed in recent years?

Werner Peyer: Certainly there have been changes, but there also have been constant focuses and constant relevances to that business.

Yes, change has been brought onto our industry – mainly due to evolving regulations. I think what is important in Monaco is that Prince Albert, when he took over from his late father in 2005, gave a very clear vision of what the finance centre should be: transparent, and cooperating with the regulatory bodies all across the world.

And so today we have a fully transparent finance centre, and we are on no blacklist of whatever regulator that exists.

But it’s not all about change. I’m passionate about private banking, and I have been for the last 35 years. It’s all about accompanying families and private clients in their financial needs.

World Finance: How have you made sure that CMB has maintained what it needs to maintain, while also changing to keep up with modern trends?

Werner Peyer: Monaco is a very diverse international centre; out of the 38,000 inhabitants, we have 130 nationalities. And so I wanted to really reflect that diversity of international culture through the bank and its services offered.

My vision has always been to capture 100 percent market share. So we developed international cultures within the bank. We have today the largest Russian speaking desk, we have a very significant and the largest German speaking desk. And I’m very proud about the Anglo-Saxon desk as well, because we still have Anglo-Saxon competitors next-door to us, but increasingly English-speaking clients turn to us.

World Finance: And how has that strategy borne out in your returns?

Werner Peyer: Well it has been dramatic in certain ways, because it changed significantly the way we looked after clients. It changed the client base as well, from the traditional clients. And it has of course changed with this transparency the needs and requirements of the clients.

We now provide to all of our clients tax reporting, so that they can use it for their regulators and tax authorities in their countries of residence.

World Finance: Tell me more about the other ways you empower your clients. You created a Women and Finance academy programme, for example.

Werner Peyer: There are a lot of wealthy women living in Monaco; yet wealth management has been traditionally the domain for men within the families, because women are not empowered to do so. We do empower them.

All of our key specialists within the bank teach them. They also get a virtual one million pound – or dollar, Swiss franc, euro – portfolio to invest. And we then discuss how these portfolios move. And so they learn.

World Finance: You’ve also created a philanthropy academy.

Werner Peyer: Many wealthy clients want to do good, following the example of Prince Albert with his famous Prince Albert II Foundation. They want to be philanthropists, yet they don’t know exactly how to do it. So we’ve created an academy that within six modules tells them how to go from the vision, to realising projects with governance, with controls as well; so that they don’t lose enthusiasm and resources and waste them.

World Finance: Your own mandate as CEO has been renewed through to 2021; what’s your strategy for the next three years?

Werner Peyer: First of all, I want to see that many, many of the ideas that we have developed as a team, that we can realise them and build on the evolution of what has already been put into place. And continue to adapt to the changing environment.

Then I also want to make sure that I can prepare the next generation of leaders in the bank, who will come in with new ideas and develop beyond what I have created.

And that’s all about the values that are based on four pillars. It’s focus on clients, listening to clients. The second value is innovation. Innovation, which can only happen when you’re competent. Third value is respect of diversity. And respect of diversity within CMB is not just about gender diversity; it’s about finding new solutions, thanks to that diversity. And the fourth value may sound trivial, but it’s the respect of rules. We have today a huge amount of rules imposed by the regulators, imposed by the bank itself, imposed by the shareholder. And we want to make sure we respect them all, because not respecting one single rule means the machine stops and you have to focus on repairing it. And we just can’t afford ever the machine to stop.

World Finance: Werner, thank you very much.

Werner Peyer: Thank you Paul.

Guaranty Trust Bank is harnessing technology to drive inclusivity

For decades, one problem in particular has plagued developing economies: namely, how can we bank the unbanked? After years of searching, a cloud is shifting and the answer is becoming clear. Effectively, technology is the key to solving financial exclusion once and for all.

For every country, financial access is the very foundation upon which economic development can occur

For every country, financial access is the very foundation upon which economic development can occur. Without it, citizens cannot open bank accounts, which impacts their employment opportunities. They cannot start a business, which affects their livelihoods. They are denied insurance, as well as the chance to securely build savings for expenses, such as a child’s education. Banking services are therefore critical at every level of society. But how can financial institutions cross the gap between the banked and unbanked population, no matter where they are located nor what their circumstances may be?

Fortunately, we now have a bridge, and it comes in the form of mobile technology: through innovation, banks in Africa are finally able to reach people in the most remote parts of the continent. It is no wonder then that the continent is at the forefront of the digital banking revolution.

“Without a doubt, the easiest and most effective medium for financial inclusion is mobile technology,” said Segun Agbaje, Managing Director and CEO of Lagos-headquartered Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank). “Mobile technology has had a tremendous impact on driving financial inclusion across several countries, starting with Kenya and more recently extending to Ghana. In Nigeria, the impact has been just as significant. With more than 140 million active mobile phone users in Nigeria, financial service providers have utilised mobile technology in order to reach the unbanked adult population, which, 10 years ago, was almost 70 percent of the population. Today, it is less than 50 percent.”

Thanks to USSD
Essentially, the use of mobile technology to deliver financial services is one of the biggest developments in banking that Africa has ever seen. Indeed, it has permitted banks to offer far more value to their customers, while also enabling them to extend their products and services to the unbanked.

Elaborating further, Agbaje said: “Take GTBank, for example. Prior to the advent of mobile banking, financial services were not very accessible to most people outside the major hubs of city centres. They were largely unaffordable for the majority of the population too. But now, due to innovations in mobile banking, not only have we successfully reduced the cost of onboarding, we have also reduced the cost of banking for our customers, particularly those in the retail segment.”

Given the increasing importance of this trend, banks are now swiftly moving away from brick-and-mortar branches in a bid to acquire new customers and provide an ever-expanding list of services via mobile phones. This in turn has made banking services cheaper, faster and more accessible to more people across the continent.

Among the most important innovations in mobile banking is the introduction of unstructured supplementary service data (USSD). The technology is making waves across the African landscape for its ability to increase access to financial services. Using USSD, which is a global system for mobile communication technology, banks are able to exchange text data between application programs within their network and their customers’ phones. Applications can range from mobile chatting, such as WhatsApp, Line and KakaoTalk, to pre-paid roaming, payment and location-based content services.

Crucially, unlike SMS messages, USSD messages are sent via a real-time connection. This enables a two-way exchange of data that is far more efficient and responsive than SMS communication. At present, USSD is the best available communications technology that delivers mobile financial services to lower-income customers and unbanked segments of society. It is unsurprising, therefore, that in developing nations the majority of large mobile financial services deployments are now using USSD as their primary communication tool.

Yet even with the adoption of this technology, hurdles remain. “The cost of data and smartphones remains a challenge to the widespread adoption of internet banking in Africa, even in spite of the fact that most people have mobile phones,” said Agbaje. “Nevertheless, I believe this cost will become less of a challenge as data becomes a commodity and the price of smartphones continues to fall.”

According to Agbaje, another major challenge is the control that telephone companies exert over USSD communication. “These organisations need to see themselves more as providers of the technology, instead of as competition to banks,” he explained. “I strongly believe that all parties involved can reach an outcome that works for everyone, though this may require some regulatory coordination.”

Aside from mobile banking and USSD technology, GTBank is making bold investments in data analytics, which is best seen in the organisation’s new, cutting-edge data centre. “Running on a 10G network capacity, this centre empowers us with the information we need to assess both how and when we can best serve our customers. Essentially, it guides us in making the important decisions that drive the success of the bank,” Agbaje told World Finance. “We are also developing and deploying interactive and intelligent bots, which will help us deliver banking services that are not only faster, easier and cheaper, but also more personal and tailored to the individual needs of our customers.”

Moving up
As with any major market shift, teething problems are inevitable. In the financial industry, for example, banks must now contend with a constantly evolving set of customer requirements, together with a necessity to move quickly and invest heavily in new technology – all the while complying with increasingly stringent banking regulations. And yet, despite such unavoidable complications, GTBank has made some major breakthroughs in recent years. “There has been a very significant transformation in the bank; we have transitioned from a high-end wholesale bank with two million customers some six years ago, to a robust retail business with more than 12 million customers,” said Agbaje. “Today, we have evolved into a wholesale bank that is powered by a very strong retail base.”

Banks must now contend with a constantly evolving set of customer requirements, together with a necessity to move quickly and invest heavily in new technology

Making this move has not been easy; it has required time and careful planning. As such, at the centre of the bank’s retail growth strategy is an unwavering goal to digitalise financial services on the continent. “Today, we aren’t just serving our retail customers through digital channels – we are going one step further by building a platform that connects businesses with consumers. We are also integrating additional services into our value offering,” said Agbaje.

When asked about GTBank’s biggest achievement to date, Agbaje replied: “The fact that we have, through sheer determination and an overriding commitment to create sustainable value for all our stakeholders, built an enduring institution that epitomises best practices of transparency and governance. It’s one that people all over the world are proud to identify with.”

He continued: “I am also proud of the fact that over the years we have built a very robust retail business, which is not only driving the progress of the bank, but also playing a fundamental role in deepening financial inclusion across the country. Another area that I think you’ll see us become stronger in is our SME business.”

GTBank’s 737 USSD banking service has also had a significant impact on how the organisation serves its customers. By leveraging the growth of mobile penetration in Nigeria, GTBank has been able to provide customers with simpler, cheaper and faster ways to bank, while significantly reducing the cost of serving them as well. “We continue to lead the industry in mobile technology by constantly expanding the products and services we provide to our customers,” Agbaje explained. “We have been the major drivers of mobile banking in Nigeria, with our 737 USSD-based service leading the way in enabling Nigerians in every part of the country to open accounts, transfer funds, purchase airtime, pay utility bills, withdraw cash and so much more using their mobile phones. We are also working with major stakeholders in the financial sector to develop more superior solutions to tackle what is the last major challenge facing financial inclusion, which is deposit taking.”

In addition to making considerable headway in terms of mobile banking, GTBank’s growth plans have been sustained. Indeed, its expansion in Africa continues to positively impact its profitability, as well as its brand equity. In December 2017, for example, the bank commenced business operations in Tanzania, which became the 10th African nation in which the bank has a footprint.

Looking forward
Today, technology is central to the financial industry – not only in Africa, but all over the world. “While it is universal, I think that what is unique about the role of technology in Africa’s financial landscape is that, up and down the continent, people are leveraging it to create innovative financial solutions. These solutions can overcome legacy challenges, such as our inadequate infrastructure, and solve age-old problems, like the low levels of financial inclusion. Ultimately, it is going to become difficult to separate these solutions from the technology that delivers them,” said Agbaje.

In developed economies, there has been a lot of noise around fintech firms, as well as, in some cases, a phobia of them. “Despite all the talk, fintech companies haven’t necessarily had the big impact that many expected,” said Agbaje. “They look to improve and provide basic financial services, which banks have traditionally done and continue to do well. In my opinion, I see more collaboration and partnerships with fintech firms. In our bank, for example, we have an in-house fintech team that is continuously exploring new opportunities to work with fintech firms and adopt product offerings that fit with our own vision.”

This kind of thought process is what enables GTBank to keep looking ahead – so much so that, when asked about the future of banking, Agbaje replied: “For us, the future is already here.” He continued: “We’re aware of the potential threat posed by non-bank digital players on traditional retail banking revenues. But even so, we are enthusiastic about the amazing opportunities birthed by the digital revolution.”

To this end, GTBank is investing significantly in its digital capabilities, not only to mitigate possible threats but to also unlock new and exciting opportunities. For example, in the past year alone the bank has developed two new mobile applications and launched its aforementioned state-of-the-art data centre. It also carried out several extensive upgrades and optimisations to its existing digital solutions.

“Building these digital capabilities has allowed us to offer our customers banking services that are not only faster, easier and cheaper, but also more personal, smarter and readily accessible anywhere, anytime and from any device. More importantly, though, it sets us up for the future of banking: this is something we believe is a single integrated platform that connects customers not just to core banking offerings, but also to everything that they need to thrive, whether they are business owners, service providers or end consumers,” said Agbaje. “We are determined to lead this future; it informs our decision to go beyond being a bank to becoming an e-commerce and financial services platform that is focused on integrating value-added services into our core banking offerings.”

With innovation being central to its culture, GTBank is always working on something new. Currently, it is leading a project to use digital devices, such as wearables, to deliver banking services. Another project underway involves reviewing how machine learning and artificial intelligence can improve the processing of the bank’s most vital services. Finally, Agbaje and his team are engaging in more partnerships and collaborations with other service providers in order to find new ways of adding value to the bank’s existing services.

Community drive
There has never been a wider divide in wealth distribution, making it even more important for organisations to invest in the communities in which they operate. “At GTBank, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is the underbelly of our operations, and we approach it not just as a form of philanthropy, but as a core part of how we go about our business,” said Agbaje. “For us, CSR is fundamentally about touching lives. We always ensure that our programmes and initiatives have a real and positive impact on improving lives and uplifting communities.”

In developed economies, there has been a lot of noise around fintech firms, as well as, in some cases, a phobia of them

GTBank’s CSR is supported by four pillars: education, community development, arts and the environment. The team believes these to be essential building blocks for the development of communities, in addition to being prerequisites for economic growth. To support the first, the bank funds programmes that increase access to quality education and improve learning outcomes for students. Another focus involves initiatives that encourage young people to stay in school.

“In terms of community development, we champion causes, support people on the margins of society and work with organisations that share our core values to bring much-needed positive change to our host communities,” Agbaje explained. “We see art as an avenue for unlocking people’s creative potential, we support several initiatives through which we not only connect with, enrich and educate individuals, but also promote cultural exchanges that break down societal barriers and build global relationships.”

When asked what Agbaje himself is most proud of in terms of the bank’s CSR initiatives, without hesitation he replied that it was GTBank’s work around autism. “Our programmes on autism have helped more than 14,000 people learn and understand how to manage and care for people living with autism,” he said. The bank has also provided free one-on-one consultation services to more than 3,200 children, and has led an ongoing campaign to tackle the stigma facing those living with autism.

GTBank also hosts football tournaments, which engage more than 70,000 young people all year round, keeping them in school, teaching them the values of excellence and fair play, and creating an avenue for the discovery of young talent and future professional footballers.

“I am also very proud of what we are doing with the GTBank Food and Drink Fair and the GTBank Fashion Weekend, through which we offer free business platforms to small business owners so that they can connect with consumers and business experts from around the world,” Agbaje added. “One of the most exciting things about these events is the remarkable stories we hear from small-business owners, which include testimonies about how rewarding our free business platforms have been for them.”

Given the bank’s dedication to such initiatives, it is clear that community is at the heart of GTBank’s operations. “We have tried to create an oasis in the continent,” Agbaje explained. “We like people to see us as an organisation that does things properly. This doesn’t mean we don’t make mistakes, but we won’t go out of our way to do things improperly. In everything that we do, we want to be known for our integrity, hard work, discipline, transparency and as a platform
for enriching lives.”

Crucial talent
As any successful organisation knows all too well, talent is the foundation upon which everything else can be built. But the mere act of hiring well-educated, experienced members of staff is only the first step on a long and critical road. “Talent is important in every industry, but talent in itself is never enough,” said Agbaje. “The world is littered with people who have abilities, but who actually end up achieving very little. With talent, you need passion, hard work and discipline, and these are values that we cherish and live by every day at GTBank.”

For GTBank, it starts with selecting people who have studied at the best academic institutions, as this is a key indicator of their underlying commitment and work ethic. “We also recruit from every academic discipline, because we believe in the diversity of thought and experience that people from different academic fields bring,” Agbaje explained. “We are always helping to train, improve and develop our people from the moment they set foot into the bank and right through the course of their careers at GTBank.”

The bank achieves this by ensuring that its employees are empowered with specialised skills. “We also teach management skills; we do this in-house, online or in collaboration with other universities around the world. All this is done with the objective of creating an organisation that is truly first class,” Agbaje told World Finance. “We first pursue excellence, discipline and hard work; by putting these things at the forefront of our operations, we believe we will always achieve equality. We strongly believe that people should be judged on the basis of what they can offer and not by their gender or tribe.”

It is this ethos of equality and meritocracy that keeps GTBank disciplined in its mission to promote financial inclusion in Africa. With major banks steaming ahead with this mission, each day it is becoming clearer that the future of banking in Africa is bright. “We are nowhere near maturity, and Africa has a large population that provides far more opportunities than challenges to growth,” Agbaje noted. “That said, over the past decade alone, the banking sector in Africa has witnessed a steady rate of expansion in reach and depth, and it will continue along this route as we take greater advantage of mobile and digital technology.”

It is for this reason that Agbaje believes he hasn’t even begun to scratch the surface in terms of what the bank can achieve. He said: “As we start to migrate from traditional banking to becoming a digital solutions platform for e-commerce and financial services, we will have the scalability needed to drive exponential growth.

“I also believe that we will continue to lead the future of banking, not just because we will continue to pursue technological advancements and digital capabilities that keep us ahead of the curve, but because we will always stay true to the values of hard work, transparency, integrity and putting the customer at the heart of everything that we do.”

An enticing citizenship by investment opportunity in the Caribbean

The Commonwealth of Dominica, not to be confused with the Dominican Republic, is a small island in the Lesser Antilles archipelago. While renowned for its idyllic beauty, untainted waters and verdant rainforest, Dominica is much more than just a picturesque holiday destination with tranquil scenery. The Dominican people are entrepreneurial in their approach, and the island has the international network to prove it.

Dominica’s second citizenship programme allows for visa-free travel to more than 120 countries, including key business hubs around the world

Since 1993, Dominica has been home to one of the world’s first citizenship by investment programmes, offering international businesspeople the opportunity to benefit from the island’s increasingly global perspective. Furthermore, due to the Programme’s longevity and accumulative experience in the investor immigration market, Dominica has continued to refine its second citizenship programme, simplifying processes and strengthening due diligence to ensure that investors from around the world can profit from the country’s ambition.

Business beyond borders
Over the past decade, the investor immigration scene has grown rapidly, with many countries around the world offering citizenship (or residency) by investment programmes in an attempt to attract more foreign direct investment. Simultaneously, the appetite for gaining second citizenship by means of investment has burgeoned, as high-net-worth individuals have sought to increase the wealth and mobility of their businesses and families. The political and economic tension between certain nations has only acted to intensify this interest, with clients seeking investment opportunities in countries with growing economies and stable governance.

$100,000

Minimum investment threshold per applicant when gaining Dominican citizenship

120

Minimum number of countries allowing visa-free travel to Dominican citizens

Although Dominica’s government doesn’t reveal the precise number of applications it receives to its second citizenship programme each year, the publicly available yearly budgets indicate that the offering continues to gain in popularity. This success can be attributed to the country’s efforts towards creating smooth processes and improving its vetting and security concerns, as well as the programme’s affordable price point. In recognition of the island’s efforts, Professional Wealth Management, a subsidiary of the Financial Times, ranked Dominica’s citizenship by investment programme as the best in the world.

A global community
Following last year’s difficult hurricane season, Dominica has emerged as an image of resourcefulness and resilience in the face of adversity. Now, with the intention of further embodying the values displayed during such a challenging time, the country’s Citizenship by Investment Programme has launched its Global Community initiative. “We are a nation deeply rooted in community values and a mind set of reciprocity,” said Dominican Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit. “For this reason, we invite individuals and families from around the world to invest in our country. In exchange, we promise to provide you with citizenship of the Commonwealth of Dominica – a status that comes with [myriad] opportunities aimed at transcending borders in a continually globalising world.”

While the investment threshold to gain second citizenship in Dominica remains the same – $100,000 per applicant – the Global Community framework enables clients to see the offering as more than just a citizenship or a right to apply for a passport. Instead, applicants become part of a global network that offers new opportunities for both professional and personal development.

Greater mobility is also a key draw for those from countries that hold fewer formal diplomatic ties, with Dominica’s second citizenship programme allowing for visa-free travel to more than 120 countries, including key business hubs around the world. Further, the programme’s lack of residency obligations allows economic citizens to continue living their busy international lifestyles uninterrupted.

Sustainable outcomes
Late last year, Skerrit vowed to make the island the first completely climate-resilient nation in the world. Geared towards harnessing green energy and building infrastructure that will withstand future climate-change-related events, Skerrit’s approach has been applauded by UN Secretary-General António Guterres and continues to receive support from the Clinton Foundation.

This attitude towards sustainability is reflected in the country’s citizenship programme, which invites individuals and families to be a part of Dominica’s enterprising future. Through the programme’s property options, investors can even get their hands on a piece of prime Dominican real estate while gaining citizenship. Luxury hospitality brands, such as Hilton, Kempinski and Marriott, have also sought to capitalise on Dominica’s eco-tourism potential, establishing a presence on the island in order to make the most of its progressive government policies and growing international presence.

While Dominica’s serene landscapes are not to be overlooked, the Caribbean island has far more to offer than first meets the eye. In fact, Dominica has become a global network of internationally minded businesspeople, offering new investors the chance to buy into a sustainable future – and reap the benefits of one of the world’s longest-standing second citizenship programmes in the process.

Russia’s stagnating economy

The world was a very different place when Vladimir Putin first came to power in May 2000. Facebook and Twitter did not yet exist, euro banknotes had not entered circulation, and the Nokia 3310 mobile phone was still a few months away from launch.

For a country that must always have one eye on oil prices, economic sanctions imposed by the West have provided a welcome scapegoat for the Russian president

Earlier this year, Putin was re-elected as president for the fourth time, which – when combined with his premiership between 2008 and 2012 – will see him extend his control over Russian politics beyond the two-decade mark. For some of the individuals who voted for the first time in that election, Putin is the only political figurehead they have ever known.

Even if some of the ideologies that make up Putinism have remained constant over the years, economically speaking, there have been notable shifts. Putin’s embrace of liberal reforms initially helped pull Russia out of its 1990s slump, but he has displayed a more cautious streak recently when confronted with economic challenges.

For a country that must always have one eye on oil prices, economic sanctions imposed by the West have provided a welcome scapegoat for the Russian president, even as they have compounded his domestic problems. While Putin remains in charge, however, the likelihood that the government will initiate the much-needed changes to the country’s economy remain slim. Where his continued presence once provided stability, it is now only delivering stagnation.

The great reformer
When Putin first became president, he inherited a country in the midst of a financial crisis. Following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, efforts were made to normalise the Russian economy by stimulating the private sector. Unsurprisingly, transitioning to a market-based economy after almost a century of communism proved difficult. While Russia was able to successfully privatise 70 percent of its economy by the middle of the decade, between 1991 and 1998 it saw its GDP decline in real terms by 30 percent. The 1997 Asian financial crisis and the subsequent fall in oil prices delivered another blow.

30%

Amount Russia’s GDP declined by between 1991 and 1998

1.5%

Russia’s predicted growth rate over the next five years

14%

of Russia’s population lives below the poverty line

In order to get Russia back on its feet, Vladimir Putin implemented a number of changes shortly after taking office, introducing a flat income tax of 13 percent and simplifying business regulations. On the surface, the reforms appeared to have worked: during Putin’s first two presidential terms, real incomes increased by 250 percent, real wages tripled and poverty was reduced by more than half.

Putin’s actions in the early 2000s stand in stark contrast to many present-day depictions of him as an opponent of economic liberalism. Still, not everyone is convinced he should be given credit for Russia’s economic revival. The devaluation of the ruble in 1998 strengthened domestic producers, while rising crude oil prices boosted state coffers – two factors that he had no control over. Alexander Libman, a professor of social sciences and Eastern European studies at the University of Munich, doubts the economic growth of the 2000s was a product of Putin’s economic policy.

“A more likely explanation for Russia’s economic turnaround is a combination of several factors: devaluation of the ruble at first and growing oil prices later,” Libman told World Finance. “In the early 2000s, the Putin government did indeed implement some important economic reforms, especially in terms of tax and in the area of jurisprudence and property rights. However, the reform drive had stopped by 2003 to 2004. Putin did not improve the economic fortunes of Russia – he just happened to be president of Russia when it started to grow.”

Perhaps some credit should also be attributed to Alexei Kudrin, Russia’s minister of finance between 2000 and 2011. As a champion of free markets, he played an integral role in liberalising the economy and using oil revenues to set up stabilisation funds in case of future crises. After Kudrin’s resignation in September 2011 and Putin’s return as president in May 2012, the direction of economic policy has been less consistent and, crucially, has failed to address the country’s longest-held problem.

Oiling the wheels
With Putin currently in the early months of his fourth presidency, he finds himself faced with some familiar problems. The ruble has depreciated in value by around 25 percent against the US dollar since January 2016, economic expansion is predicted to average just 1.5 percent over the next five years, and the population living below the poverty line stands at 14 percent.

Although these figures are healthier than they were in 2000, they are hardly inspiring. Growth rates in particular are far below the global average of three percent, suggesting that the quality of life for many ordinary Russians will not improve significantly for some time. As a developing economy, the country should be performing much better than it is.

With the Russian Government happy to continue its oil addiction, investment in other parts of the economy has remained anaemic

These problems are proving difficult to shift, partly because Russia has been unable to wean its economy away from its oil dependency. During Putin’s first two terms, when prices per barrel soared above $100, the country could simply spend its way out of trouble, but a rise is always followed by a fall. When prices crashed from $114 in June 2014 to $27 in 2016, Russia’s finances collapsed. Even today, oil prices remain way below their peak at around $80 per barrel.

According to Lilit Gevorgyan, Principal Economist for Europe and CIS at IHS Markit, increasing Russia’s economic diversity depends on reducing political risk in the country. As such, it is contingent on building stronger relations with the West – a prospect that looks unlikely for the foreseeable future.

“Russia’s attractiveness will improve if there is a clear vision for the country’s economic and institutional development,” said Gevorgyan. “This vision needs to answer vital questions as to how the economy is going to diversify further from its current dependency on the energy sector, how to deal with population decline, the negative impact of long-standing underinvestment in the energy sector, [and] how to reduce an ever-widening wealth gap and reduced consumer purchasing power. Ultimately, Russian policymakers need to clarify if they are seeking to have an open and globally integrated economy or focusing on import substitution and regional issues.”

The oil and gas industry accounts for over 60 percent of Russia’s exports and contributes to 40 percent of Russia’s federal budget. This is certainly not surprising – it is among the top three oil-producing countries in the world – but by failing to use these funds to boost other sectors and diversify the economy, Russia has been left subject to the whims of the oil market. Putin’s inconsistent economic performance stems from the fact that the Russian Government spends when oil prices are high and tightens the belt when they are low. A longer-term approach could help avoid such volatility.

Too much of a risk
With the Russian Government happy to continue its oil addiction, investment in other parts of the economy has remained anaemic. Low levels of technological innovation, an ageing workforce and widespread corruption make it difficult to attract support from businesses abroad. The problem of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has been exacerbated by economic sanctions imposed by the US, the EU and many others following Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in 2014.

FDI inflows fell by 92 percent year on year in 2015 (see fig 1), although they have since picked up (largely due to the partial privatisation of state-owned oil giant Rosneft), the imposition of new US sanctions in April has caused further anxiety for potential investors. Lower oil prices and economic sanctions have both hit the economy at roughly the same time, making it difficult to quantify the impact of the sanctions alone. However, they have certainly increased risk for potential investors.

“The most important effect of economic sanctions in Russia is an indirect one: sanctions create uncertainty and thus reduce the confidence of foreign investors and trade partners of Russia,” Libman explained. “The development of the sanction regime is unpredictable and makes firms – even those that do not operate in sectors or with partners under sanctions – cautious about dealing with Russia. Besides, sanctions restrict access to new technologies, which harms growth in the long run.”

With Russia losing friends in Europe and the US, Putin has increasingly looked to China for support – a country where his strongman politics are likely to be more warmly received. When compared with the same period 12 months ago, trade between the two countries increased by about 30 percent in the first quarter of 2018 and is predicted to hit $100bn by the year’s end. Still, Russia’s pivot to the east will not be without its difficulties.

In May, the purchase of a $9bn stake in Rosneft by CEFC China Energy collapsed amid reports that the government in Beijing was investigating the firm’s rapid expansion. Although the Qatar Investment Authority has stepped in to save the deal, the uncertainties that continue to surround the cancellation add more doubt to an increasingly cloudy investment landscape. What is clear is that China has countries all over the world lining up to be part of its investment proposals, whereas the political risk inherent in the Russian market is unlikely to place it at the front of the queue.

Moscow is making efforts to broaden its economy through the launch of a National Wellbeing Fund that diverts oil revenue into long-term reserves when prices rise above $40 a barrel. While this will lessen the state’s oil dependency, it will do little to boost private enterprise, particularly when foreign businesses remain banned from investing in more than 40 industries for national security reasons.

In a sorry state
Although Putin’s Russia bears little resemblance to the communist society of the Soviet Union, it has retained one of its principal features: the dominance of state-controlled business. An early indication that Putin would reassert the power of the state came in 2003 when the CEO of Yukos, then one of Russia’s largest companies, was arrested on tax evasion charges. The company was subsequently broken up and its assets obtained by government-owned oil firms. Estimates indicate that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) now account for anywhere between 25 and 70 percent of the country’s GDP.

Putin’s inconsistent economic performance stems from the fact that the Russian Government spends when oil prices are high and tightens the belt when they are low

Putin’s version of state capitalism, or ‘dirigisme’, has concentrated wealth in the hands of his political friends while destroying commercial competition in the country and stifling innovation. In most parts of the world, new ideas cause some companies to rise and others to fall over time; the three most valuable companies in Russia today have held those positions for more than a decade.

Increased state ownership has also rendered attempts at institutional reform largely pointless. If corporate leaders have close ties to the president or his inner circle, there is little reason to do things by the book. In Libman’s view, this has created a hostile environment for private sector operators, making it difficult for the economy to move away from its public sector dependence.

“Increasing the role of the private sector would certainly be highly beneficial for Russia: it would increase the efficiency of the economy and create preconditions for growth,” Libman explained. “To achieve the last goal, however, increasing the share of the private sector is not enough: one also has to improve the environment it operates in, particularly with regard to property rights and the quality of bureaucracy. This does not appear to be likely today.”

Throughout the first half of 2017, the Russian Finance Ministry revealed that 42.5 percent of all procurement contracts awarded by government-owned businesses were allocated without any competitive procedure taking place. Sheltered from market forces, Russia’s SOEs have become breeding grounds for corruption and inefficiency. This discourages entrepreneurs, both Russian and those based elsewhere, from doing business in the country.

Gevorgyan believes that while Kudrin remains influential – he has just been given a senior position within the Audit Chamber of Russia – there is hope that state ownership can be stemmed. “However, beyond academic discourse, there are no signs thus far that the private sector will be expanding again,” Gevorgyan noted. For that to occur, Russian citizens may have to wait for a seismic political change, the likes of which have not been seen since the year 2000.

Beware the bear
If Putin’s domestic economic policies have become steadily more passive, this has certainly not been the case regarding his international actions. Russia’s increasingly antagonistic approach to geopolitics has only been made possible by a bolstering of the country’s armed forces. Between 2003 and 2013, the country’s military expenditure doubled, eventually reaching 4.4 percent of GDP. A 10-year state armament programme, launched in 2011, further reinforced Putin’s commitment to modernising Russia’s military technology.

A powerful military adds credence to Putin’s strongman persona and gives weight to his nationalist speeches

A powerful military adds credence to Putin’s strongman persona and gives weight to his nationalist speeches. During his time in office, he has also demonstrated that he is willing to flex his country’s muscles when he deems it necessary, notably during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. And while Russia’s foreign policy is criticised abroad, it receives significant support at home: in 2014, following Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, the president’s approval rating increased by almost 10 percent.

“Certainly, Russia actively uses alleged foreign policy successes to ensure that people pay less attention to domestic difficulties,” explained Libman. “Russian foreign policy is not only driven by these diversionary concerns (Russian leadership is indeed genuinely concerned about what it perceives to be its geopolitical interests – and is willing to pay a high price to achieve them), but domestic rally-round-the-flag effects caused by this policy are also valuable for the regime.”

In 2017, however, Russian military spending fell by 20 percent (see Fig 2), the first decline since Putin took power. The Kremlin has committed to lowering its defence budget to just three percent of GDP by 2023, suggesting that internal issues may finally be taking priority.

If the strain of Russia’s military expenditure is becoming too much of a burden, then there may be less opportunity for flag-waving and more time for reflection on a deteriorating domestic situation. This will only serve to weaken Putin’s support, regardless of how strong it remains for now. In fact, there are small indications that the tide of public opinion may already be turning: a survey published by the Levada Centre shortly after his election win in March found that 45 percent of respondents hold Putin responsible for a failure to reduce wealth inequality in the country.

A shift in focus towards domestic matters is also an indication that things cannot go on as they are. Russia is a country of great potential, with vast natural resources and a population of 144 million, and is already the sixth-largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity. By 2050, it is predicted to move up to fifth place, making it Europe’s largest economy. Instead of depending on rising oil prices for growth, significant reforms are needed.

During Putin’s inauguration speech in March, he said: “It is not a question of someone conquering or devastating our land. No, that is not the danger: the main threat and our main enemy is the fact that we are falling behind. If we are unable to reverse this trend, we will fall even further behind.”

To arrest the decline, Putin could set about overhauling the domestic economy, encouraging diversification and private investment. Equally, his words may turn out to be little more than a smokescreen, and he could return to blaming the bogeyman of ‘the West’ for his country’s problems. After all, Putin is an unpredictable operator – that has been one of the few constants across his long reign.

MFD Group continues to excel in freeport development

From its base in Port Louis, Mauritius, an island 2,000km off the coast of South-East Africa, MFD Group has built up the largest and most comprehensive logistics platform in the Indian Ocean. The island nation offers a freeport scheme, meaning incoming goods are not subject to customs duties, and goods that are sold from Mauritius are not subject to VAT. As MFD works to meet the demands of regional clients, the company is also targeting growth further afield.

Mauritius has emerged as a natural business hub for international trade thanks to its ideal location, political and social stability, and its ever-expanding infrastructure system

MFD Group first opened its doors in 1998. Hans Herchenroder, the firm’s chief commercial officer, told World Finance the company has not stopped growing in terms of size and quality of service since. It was not always smooth sailing for the logistics business, though. “When we started out, the local and regional markets were not open to outsourcing their logistics requirements,” he said.
But through “hard work and sheer determination”, Herchenroder explained how the company went on to build the largest third-party logistics firm in the region. “We went through very difficult times but have emerged stronger than ever and with a clear vision.”

An exciting market
With that impressive title under its belt, the company is now looking to expand into Africa, which Herchenroder said was a natural next step: “Our business model is ideally suited for most markets in Africa, where we intend to be an industry leader.” Mauritius has emerged as a natural business hub for international trade thanks to its ideal location, political and social stability, reliability, and its ever-expanding infrastructure system.

Herchenroder elaborated further: “Given the developed state of the economy as compared with other countries in the region, Mauritius has a very competitive logistics sector. Be it in warehousing or other links of the supply chain, Mauritius has a very satisfactory level of service.”

The country’s special economic zone is another obvious benefit for a logistics company like MFD. Herchenroder said the freeport regime means a zero percent tax on corporate profits, 100 percent profit repatriation and no exchange controls. It also means access to regional trade agreements, like the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Southern African Development Community, as well as to international trade agreements such as the Cotonou Agreement and the African Growth and Opportunity Act. “And, finally, being part of the most exciting place on Earth right now: Africa,” Herchenroder added.

A turning tide
The market for container-based logistics is growing more vibrant all the time, according to Herchenroder, with container terminals receiving upgrades to boost efficiencies and with larger vessels calling at Indian Ocean ports. “We also see more sophisticated demand emerging for supply chain services,” he said.

However, it is the rapid development of a middle class in Africa that is the most exciting change. According to a 2017 report by the African Development Bank, the continent’s population has grown to one billion since 2010, and its middle class has surged to 350 million. As the population continues to grow, consumer spending is projected to rise from $680bn in 2008 to $2.2trn by 2030.

“This creates market opportunities for value-added logistics services,” Herchenroder told World Finance. MFD sees this concept of ramping up the services provided by carriers as a key moneymaker going forward. He added: “The local market is limited and we don’t expect to grow in a major way in Mauritius organically. We see a demand for more sophisticated services and value-added services, and we intend to fully meet these demands.”

Looking to the future
MFD is currently seeking to expand its capacity to service clients, with the firm taking its concept of ‘all services on one platform’ to Africa. MFD’s one-stop shop already includes a variety of premises and equipment for storage, manufacturing and management, including 65,000sq m of ambient temperature warehouses, 16,000sq m of cold rooms, 6,500sq m of office space, a container park, a transport fleet, and 24-hour security.

MFD is also developing new logistics platforms inland in Mauritius, as well as at the airport. Herchenroder said the use of airfreight cargo is taking off, as more capacity is now at hand and demand is rising for fresh products, driven by more wealth. He added: “The major developments in Mauritius are the Riche Terre logistics zone and the airport cargo zone. MFD will play a major role in these two projects. We intend to keep our position of number one in Mauritius and in the region.”

ProInversión completes PPP roadshow to plug Peru’s infrastructure gap

ProInversión is Peru’s private investment promotion agency. It recently completed an international roadshow promoting a portfolio of 50 public private partnership projects, to help plug Peru’s $160bn infrastructure gap. In the first part of our video roadshow, Executive Director Alberto Ñecco Tello explains what makes Peru an attractive and secure destination for international investment, and how ProInversión works with investors and government agencies to make investing in Peru’s PPP projects a simple and efficient process. The roadshow continues at European CEO with a breakdown of ProInversión’s portfolio, and at The New Economy with an exploration of ProInversión’s sustainability.

World Finance: Alberto Ñecco Tello is executive director of ProInversión, Peru’s private investment promotion agency. It recently completed an international roadshow, promoting a portfolio of 50 public private partnership projects, to help plug Peru’s $160bn infrastructure gap.

How do you work with international partners to make investing in Peru a simple and efficient process?

Alberto Ñecco Tello: We work very closely with investors; within the agency we have a whole division that is entirely in charge of investor outreach and investor relations. We are the point of contact – and I would even say the point of entrance for foreign investors that come into the country. We have a very friendly and supportive legal framework for investors to come in, and we have devoted professionals that develop a client relationship role with the investors, and guide investors in their way into the country.

Mostly investors for PPP or infrastructure projects, but also investors in general, who just want to bring capital to Peru.

World Finance: What makes Peru an attractive and secure destination for international investment?

Alberto Ñecco Tello: Peru has very solid foundations for investments; one of our main strengths is our macro-economic foundations. For the last 25 years we have been able to keep high growth numbers at low inflation rates, which is hardly seen around the world. We have been blessed in that way!

And that macro-economic foundation is one of the best in Latin America, in the region. Which should provide you with enough certainty regarding returns.

And in terms of the law – the legislation or the regulatory framework – for this, it is very important to highlight that according to the constitution of Peru, local and foreign investments must be treated equally. So there is no discriminatory treatment between the two.

Also, there are no capital controls or regulation regarding inflow or outflow of capital. So it’s a very friendly environment, and it’s a very open economy for foreign investors.

World Finance: What range of investment horizons are in your portfolio, and – you mentioned returns – what kind of returns can investors expect?

Alberto Ñecco Tello: Well, since our portfolio is mostly PPP projects, our horizons are mostly in the range of 20-30 year contracts. And in terms of return, they are usually market returns. I could not really pin a number, because it will depend on, you know: the industry, how regulated it is, the amount of competition. And financial models are kind of proprietary for each one of the bidders. But I would say they must be pretty decent, because we have increasing competition for each one of our projects!

World Finance: What other questions have you been addressing on your roadshow? What are the top three things that investors want to know?

Alberto Ñecco Tello: Well, investors are usually concerned about political risk. And for somebody that does not know the country, it is a fair concern.

It’s important to highlight that for the last 25 years, regardless of the ruling party, we have maintained a very stable and sound macroeconomic policy and economic policy. An open economy, a liberal economy, market-oriented. And in that sense, I guess it’s just about getting to know the political risk, and getting to know the country.

There are also questions around what kind of portfolio do we bring to the table? And I think that’s very interesting, because Peru has one of the longest and oldest PPP programmes in Latin America – and one of the broadest. I mean, we cover all sectors of the economy. We work in PPPs for transport, education, health, irrigation, and we even do mining concessions. So we have a very wide portfolio of investments to offer, and I guess – that should also be very appealing for investment funds or investors looking for diversification in their portfolio.

And I would lastly say, there is always a question around the capacity of the government to deal with private investors and private counterparties. And as I just said, Peru has a very long-standing PPP tradition, so there are a lot of PPPs already working in Peru. Spanish companies have been present for quite a long time now, and they are active and they are already operating projects in highways infrastructure, water and sanitation, etc.

So although that’s an ongoing concern, and I think the government and the agency are still working on continuously strengthening our capacity to deal with private counterparts; we have the experience, and we have the work done. So we are pretty much prepared to offer a stable and hopefully fruitful relationship.

World Finance: Alberto, thank you very much.

Alberto Ñecco Tello: Thank you.

The petro-yuan could usher in a new era for global energy

March 26, 2018 may go down in history as one of the most significant days in world finance. At 9am local time, the first trades in crude oil futures denominated in yuan – China’s currency – appeared on the screens of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. Overall, 15.4 million barrels of crude oil changed hands through the new contract. Oil trading powerhouses Glencore and Trafigura participated in the trade, lending their gravitas to the nascent market. The petro-yuan was born.

Dollar still king
The petro-yuan is the youngest sibling of the petrodollar. During the oil crisis of the early 1970s, Middle Eastern oil producers made an agreement with the US to use their proceeds from oil sales to purchase US Treasury bonds. This process, known as ‘petrodollar recycling’, has enabled a series of US administrations to finance growing deficits, as the dollar’s role in the energy market consolidated its place as a global reserve currency. If oil is the product that makes the wheels of the global economy turn, the dollar is the hard currency that keeps the tills ringing. Not coincidentally, the two most significant oil benchmarks – Brent Crude and WTI – are priced in US dollars, which unequivocally remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.

If oil is the product that makes the wheels of the global economy turn, the dollar is the hard currency that keeps the tills ringing

The arrival of the petro-yuan has already caused a stir. Chinese and Russian media rushed to announce the demise of the petrodollar, while the Danish investment bank Saxo Bank predicted in its Outrageous Predictions for 2018 report that the new contract will be a “raging success”. China has grand plans for its currency, according to Professor Keun-Wook Paik, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “Beijing will aim to challenge the US dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency. The petro-yuan will be an effective tool to demonstrate Beijing’s stance.”

The end of the dollar’s dominance has been announced many times before. Other countries have permitted issuance of oil futures in their own currencies, but with little success so far. India introduced crude oil futures denominated in rupees in 2006; although still used locally, the petro-rupee hasn’t come close to undermining the dollar. Russia, a major oil producer, tried something similar in 2016 with disappointing results.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, stands a better chance of supporting its petro-currency. For instance, Chinese authorities may force state-owned companies to purchase oil in yuan-denominated contracts. Foreign companies may feel the pressure too. “China has a long track record of conditioning foreign sales and investments in its market on various requirements, so I would not be surprised if China conditions access to the Chinese crude market on a requirement to benchmark some volumes against the Shanghai price,” said Craig Pirrong, Professor of Finance at Bauer College of Business, University of Houston and leading expert in commodity finance. China also has leverage as the world’s top US Treasury bond holder. According to Paik: “Beijing could try to boost the petro-yuan by diverting its sizable funds from US Treasury bonds to loans for oil-and-gas-based upstream development in Russia and Iran. If a timely triggering point is provided and they do that systematically, the petrodollar’s dominance will be questioned sooner or later.”

A decrease in demand for the petrodollar would have dire consequences for the US economy, resulting in higher inflation and a difficulty to finance deficit spending. But not everyone is convinced that the petro-yuan poses a major threat to the dollar. “It’s a fantasy. There is a huge coordination issue to get everyone out of the dollar simultaneously,” said Pirrong.

The oil industry is notoriously risk-averse and wary of innovation; barring a major crisis in the US economy, it will take decades before traders abandon a practice that has been tried and tested. The dollar is historically considered a safe haven currency, whereas the yuan is still not completely convertible into other currencies and represents a tiny fraction of foreign exchange reserves.

A first step for the yuan would be to establish its place in the Asia-Pacific region. “The renminbi will not overtake the dollar tomorrow, but it could gain reserve currency status in Asia-Pacific very quickly. The oil contract is a large cog in the big strategic plan to pivot away from the dollar to renminbi,” said Hayden Briscoe, Head of Asia-Pacific Fixed Income at UBS Asset Management, Hong Kong.

Playing the long game
China has been contemplating the launch of the petro-yuan for a long time. It was the financial crisis that convinced the government to take action, explained Briscoe: “During the financial crisis, China realised that it had lost control over both its food and energy security, as well as, to some degree, its imports and exports, primarily because everything was settled in dollars. Ever since, China has sought to abandon settlement in dollars in favour of the renminbi by internationalising its currency.”

The first time China issued a domestic oil futures contract in 1993, the experiment came to an abrupt end due to extreme price fluctuation

To achieve this goal, Chinese authorities followed a piecemeal approach, starting with offshore trading of renminbi in 2010. A few years later, China opened its bond markets to international sovereign bond funds and banks. However, the timing of the petro-yuan’s launch has raised some eyebrows: recent tensions between China and the US over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration has prompted many analysts to ask whether China is sending a message to the US. However, China is not interested in theatrics, according to Paik: “China fully understands that this is not a short-term play.”

From a macroeconomic perspective, paying oil producers in its own currency is a rational policy for a country that became the world’s top oil importer in 2017. China’s crude oil imports nearly doubled from 4.8 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2010 to 8.4 million BPD in 2017, whereas US imports dropped from 9.2 million BPD to 7.9 million BPD over the same period due to the domestic shale oil boom. BP expects Chinese demand to rise by around 30 percent by 2040.

The petro-yuan may also help China eliminate the so-called ‘Asian oil premium’. Currently, refiners in Asia pay up to $6 more per barrel than their counterparts in the developed world when importing oil from the Middle East, as WTI and Brent are based on oil grades widely used in the US and Europe. China’s new contract is based on a basket of Middle Eastern and domestic oil grades that are in demand in China and Asia and include more than 40 percent of global oil production. “It makes sense to establish a regional oil benchmark that reflects Chinese consumption and more broadly Asian demand patterns, instead of being dependent on the price discovery in the North Sea of Brent Crude or at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for WTI crude oil futures,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

A geopolitical pawn
The petro-yuan can also be seen as the latest move in a broader geopolitical tussle between the US and China, reminiscent of the 19th-century struggle between the UK and Russia over the control of routes to India that historians named ‘the Great Game’. For example, it fits into China’s One Belt, One Road initiative to develop ties across Central Asia. With gas and oil imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on the rise, China can use the petro-yuan to tie these countries to its macroeconomic cycle. “When the influence of the petro-yuan grows, Central Asian republics will take a more balanced stance towards China, even though their concerns over its economic dominance will not disappear easily,” said Paik.

4.8m

Barrels per day of crude oil imported by China in 2010

8.4m

Barrels per day of crude oil imported by China in 2017

30%

Predicted increase in Chinese demand for crude oil by 2040

9.2m

Barrels per day of crude oil imported by US in 2010

7.9m

Barrels per day of crude oil imported by US in 2017

The new contract may also bring China closer to several US adversaries – including Russia, Iran and Venezuela – that are big oil producers and would be happy to ditch the dollar. Russia has already moved in that direction, settling a part of its oil exports in yuan. “They had difficulty in settlements because they were stuck in the dollar world, but now they have an alternative. By adopting the petro-yuan, these countries are more aligned with the Chinese macroeconomic circle,” said Briscoe.

In the Middle East, the petro-yuan suits Saudi Arabia’s plans to diversify its investment portfolio overseas, while China seeks to attract Middle Eastern investors to its capital market and participate in Saudi Aramco’s forthcoming IPO. A plan to issue loans denominated in yuan was part of the agenda in the China-Saudi Economic Forum last year. “In the Middle East [the petro-yuan] has been welcomed as a positive development, as it provides additional liquidity for long-term loans, market access to the major Middle East oil exporters, and also a benchmark currency for downstream Chinese petrochemical projects, reducing exchange risk volatility,” said Dr Mohamed Ramady, an expert on energy finance in the Middle East.

As for the Asia-Pacific region, China’s own backyard, the rise of an Asian oil benchmark could mark the tipping point in an ongoing process of economic integration, said Briscoe: “Asia has re-regionalised. It has moved up the value chain very quickly and has become less reliant on the rest of the world. Many companies don’t have to look outside Asia for finance.” The Chinese central bank is already the largest liquidity provider in the region, easily overtaking international institutions such as the IMF. China is also the largest trading partner of most South-East Asian countries, including Vietnam and Malaysia.

Teething problems
The first time China issued a domestic oil futures contract in 1993, the experiment came to an abrupt end due to extreme price fluctuation. Nearly two decades passed before Chinese authorities hesitantly started toying with the idea again in 2012. Eventually the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the launch of the petro-yuan in 2014. A new contract came close to entering the market three years ago, but a crash in the Chinese stock market in the summer of 2015 temporarily stalled the project.

Many things have changed since 1993. From a tiny player in global trade, China has transformed into a manufacturing powerhouse and the world’s largest oil importer. Its financial sector, although still largely controlled by the government, is more resilient than ever. According to Briscoe: “The sceptics will say that the oil contract has been tried before and failed. But it failed before the renminbi was tradable and it did so at a time when China was not fully integrated into the global financial system. It’s different this time around. It’s the first time that a government is seeking proactively to internationalise its currency.”
Cautious to avoid past mistakes, Beijing has sought to keep speculators away by setting oil storage costs for the new contract considerably higher than international ones. However, the measure may put off some legitimate investors too, says Professor Jian Yang, Founding Director at the Center for China Financial Research at University of Colorado Denver Business School: “As high storage cost could prevent the necessary arbitrage between cash and futures markets, it will prevent a certain type of foreign investor from conducting cash-and-carry or reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage.” High storage costs may also have the adverse effect of increasing price volatility, making the contract vulnerable to “corners and squeezes” that will “undermine the utility of the contract as a hedging mechanism”, according to Professor Craig Pirrong, known for his Streetwise Professor blog.

From a tiny player in global trade, China has transformed into a manufacturing powerhouse and the world’s largest oil importer

China needs foreign investors to participate in the nascent petro-yuan market to achieve minimum levels of liquidity. A major concern for them is the lack of market data, as well as possible manipulation of the yuan by Chinese authorities, since the currency is not freely convertible in global markets; a government-led devaluation of the yuan led to capital flight just three years ago. This will not change in the near future, according to Hansen: “The government and President Xi are unlikely to give up their control over the currency anytime soon.”

Another concern for foreign investors is their vulnerability to any intervention by the Chinese Government that may affect capital flows related to oil futures, including temporary terminations of trade. That being said, in April the People’s Bank of China announced measures aiming to attract more foreign investment in the financial system. However, the country still utilises capital controls to curb capital flights.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for the petro-yuan is what Yang calls “bad liquidity”. Although Chinese mom-and-pop investors can provide sufficient capital volumes to provide liquidity, they typically hold shorter positions than other traders; in extreme market conditions, this can cause a liquidity crisis. “Such ‘bad liquidity’ does not help improve the price discovery and hedging functions of the market, which determines the long-term success of a futures market,” said Yang.

In contrast to the US, China currently lacks a large number of producers or traders that could use the new contract as a hedging tool. “The well-known oligopoly problem of the oil spot market in China, dominated by three state-owned integrated oil companies, may lead to fewer independent oil and refinery firms, and as a result, fewer domestic hedgers,” said Yang.

Risks on the horizon
The rise of the petro-yuan marks the culmination of China’s attempt to ride on the wave of economic globalisation. For the first time since the Chinese emperor capitulated to the demands of European colonial powers in the 19th century, the country is opening up its commodity markets to foreign traders.

Historically, countries that open up their financial markets see large capital inflows that can lead to asset price inflation and housing crises, said Briscoe, suggesting that Chinese authorities should tread carefully: “The risks associated with large capital inflows have yet to be resolved. With around $3trn of inflows making their way into China, the response of regulators and policymakers will be very important.” Briscoe is confident though that Chinese policymakers know what they are doing, as he added: “In the West, we spend a lot of time on developing policies before implementation. China tends to do the opposite. Typically, it adopts a bottom-up approach by beginning with lightly regulated policies, which are tested and adjusted over time. That’s why things happen faster there.”

Temenos extols the need for technological adaptability in the banking space

“If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, then the end is near,” Jack Welch, the former chairman and CEO of General Electric, once said. Nearly 20 years on, this observation seems more and more applicable to the banking industry.

Technology has created a new norm: Start-ups have attracted significant investment capital, and have entered the market offering technology-led and customer-centric banking services

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, banks have faced a perfect storm. Historically, they would have recovered the six percent loss in return on equity (RoE) in the few years following 2008. The fact that this hasn’t happened is due to two factors: regulatory changes that have resulted in more capital being needed for a certain volume of business, and a fundamental shift in technology.

Technology has created a new norm. Emerging financial technology players have attracted significant venture capital, and have entered the market offering technology-led and customer-centric banking services. These offer a superior customer experience, low (or zero) fees, and a simple product set targeted at delivering customer value. They are able to do this by integrating data-driven customer and mobile-first technologies. Barriers to entry are almost non-existent, bringing Bill Gates’ 1994 statement that “banking is necessary, banks are not” closer to reality. While banks need to respond to this shift in the landscape, investments in technology offer almost the only way to return to pre-2008 RoE.

New way forward
All is not lost for banks, but big changes within them tend to be longer term. Banks still have millions of customers keeping their money with them; they are also regulated, and this reassures customers their money is safe and that they will be treated fairly. Bank executives also understand the nature of providing services on a continuous, 24/7 basis, which is what customers require. Nonetheless, banks must respond to the ongoing shift in customer requirements, and quickly, so that they can take advantage of the opportunities it offers as well as the threats it introduces.

This is where digital banking comes in. However, digital banking is more than just developing a mobile app and connecting it to the bank’s existing back-office applications. The ability to conduct transactions over mobile and internet channels are prerequisites for doing business today, but they are not differentiators and do not allow banks to use the lessons learned from fintechs.

A modern digital bank, as demonstrated by new start-ups globally, can expect to achieve – on average – 25 percent less from a cost-income perspective than traditional banks, which are incumbent in the same market. To achieve this quantum leap in lower cost and higher revenue requires a re-imagining both of the customer experience and of operational processes. This involves very high levels of automation based on data-driven and highly integrated front-to-back application technologies.

Open banking has the potential to tighten the competitive noose even further as customer relationships and client data become available to third parties, even as customer data privacy becomes more important and high profile. Collaborating with third parties has the potential to recover another 6.3 percent points in RoE by establishing an ‘ecosystem’ platform that taps into new business models. Highly complex, fractured legacy environments designed around lines of business and products, supported by significant manual intervention, are simply not fit for purpose in 2018.

Commencing transformation
To transform into a truly digital business, an integrated front-to-back, data-driven banking platform is the foundation. According to Celent, banks currently spend somewhere between 70 and 80 percent of their IT budget on the maintenance of their current systems, just to keep them compliant and operational, leaving 20 to 30 percent for innovation. But this does not support participation in a fast-moving and competitive landscape.

One approach is to create a separate ‘digital challenger’ bank, which eliminates the constraints imposed by existing complex legacy technology, as well as the legacy internal mindset of how banking should be. Freed from these constraints, a bank can focus on the customer and the value that can be delivered using integrated customer-centric applications and embedded analytics to drive a relevant contextual customer experience and smart, automated operations.

This is called a ‘build and migrate’ strategy, and creates a parallel digital business environment into which the bank can then migrate its customers, employees and other stakeholders over time. This puts the customer at the centre of the bank’s universe – an outside-in approach to banking.

That said, a build and migrate approach may not be suitable for all banks. A more traditional approach is an in-place incremental progressive transformation, where customer segments, or lines of business, are progressively migrated to a newly integrated digital banking platform. The same outside-in management thinking needs to be applied as the bank progressively transforms to the new business model. Whatever the approach, a policy of doing nothing seems more and more risky. The world is moving, with customer expectations changing, and the technology used by banks to serve customers must keep pace.

Could a crypto comeback be on the cards?

“All money is a matter of belief” is the aphoristic phrase attributed to Adam Smith, the father of modern economics. Whether Smith really said it or not, the meaning behind the quote remains as relevant as ever today, in an age where the very definition of money is rapidly evolving. The introduction of digital currencies in recent years has reignited the age-old debate of what constitutes money, and whether these cryptocurrencies are the future or simply another failed experiment.

After the value of most significant coins rose astronomically throughout most of 2017, prices peaked towards the end of December and subsequently plunged back down as the euphoria faded

In terms of price action, the past few months have been a turbulent ride for the cryptocurrency market, to say the least. After the value of most significant coins rose astronomically throughout most of 2017, prices peaked towards the end of December and subsequently plunged back down as the euphoria faded.

Everybody knows bitcoin; what everyone doesn’t know is that bitcoin was merely the 14th-best-performing crypto-asset in 2017, having surged ‘only’ 1,318 percent, according to data by CoinMarketCap. The best performer was actually Ripple, the value of which rose a whopping 36,018 percent in a single year, before collapsing in early 2018 alongside virtually every other cryptocurrency.

Behind the scenes

Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency ever created, back in 2009 – though the broader public did not really catch up to the concept until 2017. It’s no coincidence that prices started to skyrocket right around the time when the public spotlight fell on cryptocurrencies. In fact, when comparing how frequently the term ‘bitcoin’ was searched on Google with bitcoin prices, one can immediately spot a correlation: public interest in the coin rose in tandem with its price, and declined alongside it as well. The obvious conclusion is that the crypto-rally in 2017 was largely fuelled by retail investors stepping into the market, encouraged by a plethora of headlines around the subject and a fear of missing out on future gains.

As for the price slump that ensued (see Fig 1), it can be traced back to a regulatory crackdown of cryptocurrencies, predominantly in Asia. China is set to block all websites related to cryptocurrency trading in an attempt to limit financial risks, while regulators in South Korea, Japan and India have also tightened their grips, albeit not as severely. News that Google and Facebook plan to ban crypto-related advertisements didn’t do prices any favours either, as they likely reinforced scepticism around digital coins, curbing interest among small investors.

Signs of life
Notwithstanding the collapse in prices over the first quarter of 2018, the sector is showing signs of life once again in the second quarter, with most major coins staging modest recoveries. Looking at the total market capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market, it currently stands at $426bn, after touching a low of $248bn earlier in April. For comparison, the high point back in January was $829bn, according to CoinMarketCap figures.

While the catalyst behind this rebound is far from clear, market chatter attributes it to reports that major institutions – such as Barclays and Goldman Sachs – are considering launching cryptocurrency trading desks, amplifying speculation that institutional investors may be gearing up to enter the market. Meanwhile, the latest Thomson Reuters survey suggests that one in five finance firms are considering trading cryptocurrencies within the next 12 months, adding further credibility to such expectations.

One of the biggest risks on the horizon, according to popular belief, is increased regulation. From Asia to Europe to the US, policymakers are assessing the risks emanating from cryptocurrencies and their potential remedies. These include establishing protections for investors, clamping down on money laundering activities and curtailing financial stability risks, among others. Should such policies be implemented, they may indeed spell bad news for the asset class over the near term, as rising compliance burdens would likely make it more difficult and expensive (on average) to engage in activities related to digital coins.

In the grand scheme of things, though, increased regulation may not necessarily prove harmful. Stricter laws do raise costs, but they also make for a safer environment, something that could draw in large investors that were previously hesitant to add cryptocurrencies to their portfolios as means of diversification. It follows that if institutional money flows in, that would also improve liquidity in the market, reducing volatility and limiting the abnormally large price swings that have become a daily phenomenon for cryptocurrency traders. Ultimately, more regulatory scrutiny may help increase the legitimacy of digital coins as conventional investment products, potentially eliminating the market’s reputation as the Wild West of the finance world.

Rules and taboos
Staying on regulation and liquidity, a major theme in the cryptocurrency market – and specifically in bitcoin circles – is whether bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved by regulators, particularly by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A bitcoin ETF could add liquidity to the market by providing traders with another method of speculating on bitcoin prices. Investors currently require wallets to trade bitcoins, but an ETF would allow them to trade the coin directly on brokerages that are more secure overall, thereby also decreasing the risk of fraud.

While the SEC had previously rejected bitcoin ETFs, citing a lack of investor protections and arbitrage issues due to low liquidity, it has recently indicated it is considering a rule change that would legalise ETFs tracking bitcoin futures instead of spot prices. Even if it is rejected this time around too, it appears to be only a matter of time until an ETF is eventually approved, as the industry matures. Although it seems certain that an ETF on bitcoin would be the first of its kind, since bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency, it is unlikely to be the last, with other major coins like Ethereum next in line once bitcoin paves the way.

Another fascinating theme is how cryptocurrencies would fare in a future recession. This topic is rarely touched upon, as even discussing a potential crisis is seen as something of a taboo during good times. To be clear, there are no signs of an imminent recession on the horizon, and economic data continue to paint a rosy picture for the global economy. Still, the fact that we are entering the late stages of the business cycle, and that this is already one of the longest economic expansions on record, suggests the possibility of a downturn over the next few years should not be dismissed.

With that in mind, it is interesting that there is no empirical evidence of how cryptocurrencies behave in an environment characterised by fear, as digital coins were invented only after the 2008 crisis. And while some pundits previously pointed to bitcoin and other coins as being safe-haven assets, since they are not centralised and their supply is theoretically fixed, that has not been apparent in recent years. For instance, unlike gold, bitcoin prices barely responded to the Brexit referendum, the geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula, or the escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

That said, the fact that digital coins remained unfazed by geopolitical and trade woes does not mean the same will hold true in a crisis, as there may be vastly different drivers at play. For instance, financial crises are often accompanied by government-imposed capital controls, meaning that money does not pour out of the country, which in turn makes a downturn more severe. Iceland, Greece and Cyprus are some recent examples, though China has also been doing so for years now. We can contrast this with flows into cryptocurrencies, which can hardly be controlled in such a manner. Therefore, digital coins may be one method of evading capital controls, allowing users to transfer funds abroad even in such circumstances.

Another consideration is how central banks will act. The last time around, all kinds of unconventional monetary policy tools were utilised, ranging from negative interest rates to quantitative easing. One of the biggest side effects of such policies was a marked depreciation in the respective currencies of those nations. Should the same tools be used again, a strong argument can be made that the price of digital coins may shoot up, as the value of conventional currencies is eroded through money printing.

On the whole, several factors continue to create significant problems for the cryptocurrency market, ranging from a lack of regulation and sub-par liquidity to hacks and outright fraud. However, taking a step back, it’s breathtaking how far digital currencies have come in just a few years, and how rapidly the landscape around them is evolving and improving.

Although this article focused on the actual coins, the other theme that is increasingly grabbing attention is the blockchain technology behind these tokens, which appears set to disrupt several industries over the coming years – for instance, by helping entrepreneurs raise capital to finance new projects. While the coming years may be bumpy for the cryptocurrency world as crucial issues are ironed out, the bigger picture is one where the industry continues gaining legitimacy and popularity, potentially ushering in a brave new world of digital coins.

Mozambique’s dramatic economic reversal

From one of the most promising economies in sub-Saharan Africa to a nation struggling amid a crippling debt crisis, Mozambique’s fall from grace has been swift and replete with shady dealings. In 2014, the capital, Maputo, was chosen by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to host its Africa Rising conference in recognition of Mozambique’s economic growth – an enviable 7.4 percent per year across two decades (see Fig 1). At the time, the IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, spoke of the country’s “impressive performance” and her “high hopes” for the future. But in the four years since, much of that optimism has dissipated.

Falling commodity prices, clashes between rival parties and environmental challenges began threatening the economic stability that the country had enjoyed for  two decades

In 2016, the discovery of undisclosed government loans worth up to $2bn precipitated an abrupt end to Mozambique’s economic success story. IMF aid was withdrawn and debt payments have subsequently been missed. In March of this year, finance minister Adriano Maleiane explained that creditors might have to wait another decade before they are repaid.

As the scandal deepens, questions are rightly being raised about the role played by international agencies, developed countries and global banks – specifically, how much responsibility they should take for the economic upheaval that will ultimately see the Mozambican people suffer. While government officials must surely be held accountable for their actions, so too must many others for a crisis in which few people’s hands are clean.

Halcyon days
No story of Mozambique’s current debt crisis would be complete without examining the country’s more prosperous past. Following the end of the civil war in 1992, the national government implemented a series of macroeconomic reforms that looked to make the most of the country’s natural resources and facilitate a transition towards a market economy. Post-war megaprojects like the Mozal aluminium smelter helped curb Mozambique’s overreliance on the agricultural sector, which saw its share of GDP fall from 38 percent in 1992 to 20 percent by 2001.

Efforts to boost human development in the country, particularly in rural areas, started to pay off, with the proportion of citizens living in poverty falling from 69 percent in 1996 to 54 percent in 2003. The government’s fiscal policies, many of which were supported by the IMF, lowered trade barriers and simplified the tax system. Life for many in Mozambique may not have been comfortable – the country’s per capita income was still 40 percent below the average for sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 – but there were reasons for optimism, at least.

In fact, Neil Balchin, Research Fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, believes that Mozambique’s potential has been clear to see for some time, even if the country has struggled to overcome its macroeconomic challenges. “Mozambique has potentially good prospects for diversifying production, advancing industrialisation, promoting economic transformation and creating jobs for the large number of young people entering the labour market, estimated at around 420,000 annually,” Balchin explained. “It has considerable mineral reserves, vast arable land and an extensive coastline.”

But as Mozambique was cashing in on these plaudits and receiving numerous investment proposals in the early 2010s, problems started to appear below the surface. Falling commodity prices, clashes between rival parties and environmental challenges began threatening the economic and political stability that the country had enjoyed for the previous two decades. Worse was still to come.

A dirty secret
Back in 2013, the Mozambique Government borrowed $2bn in order to set up three state-backed tuna fishing companies, with the loans arranged by Credit Suisse and a Russian investment bank. Although there is nothing particularly unusual about a developing nation asking for outside help to fund its economic projects, in this case the request was kept hidden, with the loans agreed in secret away from the scrutinising eyes of the country’s parliament.

Many of the boats that were purchased using the $2bn loan now sit idle and unused in Maputo harbour

The secrecy initially disguised the fact that the numbers involved in the deal simply didn’t add up. Firstly, $2bn is a colossal amount for a country of Mozambique’s financial heft, representing more than 12 percent of the country’s GDP (see Fig 2). And second, the loans were taken out on the wildly optimistic assumption that the new tuna fleet would be able to catch $200m worth of fish every year. Even if such ambitious goals were achieved, they would still fail to match the annual repayments (including interest) of $260m. The irregularities surrounding the loan perhaps help explain why it was not originally made public – its full extent only became known in early 2016. The subsequent breakdown in trust between Mozambique and its creditors caused international donors, the IMF and the World Bank to suspend all financial aid.

While the initial disclosure damaged Mozambique’s financial credibility, subsequent revelations have served to exacerbate the crisis. An independent audit report by risk consultancy firm Kroll found that Mozambique’s state-owned tuna businesses paid $713m more for maritime equipment than it was worth. What’s more, a significant proportion of the funds were not spent on new fishing boats at all. Among other naval supplies, three Ocean Eagle 43 military vessels were purchased, each capable of launching unmanned aerial vehicles and dispensing machine gun fire. These could help Mozambique police its waters, but they won’t directly contribute to its lofty fishing goals.

The audit also found that $500m of the loan simply remains unaccounted for, all of which adds up to a murky deal that is proving difficult to illuminate. The three Mozambican companies that received the $2bn loan – Ematum, ProIndicus and Mozambique Asset Management (MAM) – have yet to begin meaningful operations, with many of their boats sitting unused in the Maputo harbour.

Antonio do Rosario, the chairman of all three organisations, has so far resisted the efforts of investigators by withholding data on “national security” grounds. Clearly, the close connections between politics and business in the country make accountability a challenge. Armando Guebuza, president in 2013, justified his decision to offer government guarantees on the loans in patriotic terms. The current president, Felipe Nyusi, who was minister of defence at the time the loans were issued, was a trustee at Ematum, while Rosario himself holds a prominent position within the state intelligence and security service.

Dr Joseph Hanlon, a senior lecturer in development policy and practice at the Open University, believes that the actions of private companies, coupled with the issuing of secret contracts, make it difficult to attribute debt liability to the Mozambique Government. “One of the important things to remember is that of the $2bn, not one penny entered Mozambique,” he said. “In a very unusual part of the deal, Credit Suisse insisted that all of the money was paid upfront to a Lebanese equipment supplier.”

Although accountability for the debt scandal is proving difficult, this has not lessened its impact. Foreign grants fell to less than $200m following the discovery of the hidden loans in 2016, down from $700m in 2014. During the same period, foreign direct investment plummeted by 40 percent. Last year, economic growth slowed to just 3.7 percent, and today the country’s financial credibility languishes at the lowest levels among the majority of credit rating agencies. So in order to regain the respect of its creditors and restart the aid programmes upon which it relies so heavily, Mozambique has been given little choice but to impose austerity on its already impoverished citizens.

The blame game
On the surface, it is easy to dismiss Mozambique’s ongoing debt crisis as another example of a sub-Saharan African nation undone by corrupt politicians misusing foreign aid. A closer look, however, reveals that to lay all of the blame for this particular debacle at the feet of government elites would be to let other unscrupulous parties off the hook.

To lay all of the blame for this particular debacle at the feet of government elites would be to let other unscrupulous parties off the hook

In particular, one has to look at the role played by both of Mozambique’s creditors in encouraging the country to take out a loan when it was highly unlikely it would ever be able to pay it back. When attempting to justify its actions, Credit Suisse pointed to its own feasibility studies, which indicated that Mozambique would be able to sell its tuna for three times as much as the Seychelles. Given that this is exactly the same fish – the maritime boundaries of Seychelles and Mozambique are separated by just a few hundred miles at their nearest point – such claims were optimistic at best and wilfully misleading at worst.

Hanlon believes that, for all the faults of the Mozambican politicians, fingers should also be pointing at the investment banks. “The proposal for the loan came from Credit Suisse,” he explained. “Mozambique would never have done it if Credit Suisse hadn’t suggested it. The loan was based on business proposals that were total nonsense. Evidently, basic due diligence was not done.”

In many parts of the world, if an individual walks into a bank and requests a business loan despite lacking a sound business proposal, the lending institution would be deemed guilty of reckless lending and find itself at least partially liable for the debt once the customer inevitably defaults. In international law, this is not the case. Hanlon believes that this lack of regulatory standards has allowed global banks to take advantage of developing countries.

“If you look at the history of international lending, there is something called ‘loan pushing’ that has occurred whenever banks have an excess of capital,” Hanlon told World Finance. “Today, quantitative easing has given banks more money than they can get rid of, but this is not a new phenomenon. If you go back to the 1920s, you see exactly the same thing, with US congressional committees criticising what they termed ‘loan salesman’.”

If Mozambique’s creditors have taken on the role of modern-day loan salesmen, then they have certainly exacted a high price. Both banks earned almost $200m in fees for arranging the loans, and Credit Suisse even pocketed an additional $4.1m in 2016 for helping to restructure the part of the debt relating to Ematum. Although Credit Suisse has recently responded to the scandal, explaining that it is “cooperating fully with ongoing investigations into the Mozambique financings”, this makes the economic punishment being handed out to Mozambique seem extremely unfair, as does the fact that the tuna fishing loans were never legitimate in the first place: the loans were never approved by the country’s parliament, and the government guarantees subsequently applied to them were in violation of the 2013 and 2014 Finance Acts.

Of course, fairness works both ways and, despite the dubious legality of Mozambique’s debt, bondholders will still claim that their investments should be repaid. In-fighting has already begun over this issue, with some Ematum bondholders arguing that they should be paid in full while holders of the ProIndicus and MAM debts should receive nothing. Between all the arguing and the finger pointing, a consensus desperately needs to be reached soon. The people of Mozambique – the only truly innocent party in this ongoing saga – cannot wait any longer for their economy to get back on track.

The resource curse
In 2010, as Mozambique was experiencing sustained and rapid economic growth, the country received another boost with the discovery of five trillion cubic metres of natural gas in the Rovuma basin, located just off the country’s coast. If the revelation initially gave hope that Mozambique could continue its upward trajectory, this was swiftly quashed by the hidden debt scandal. Still, it was believed that revenues generated through liquefied natural gas (LNG) production could at least help pay off the country’s debts to the IMF and other creditors.

Donors like the IMF and the World Bank must also carry some of the blame for Mozambique’s inability to develop its other industries

These hopes were dashed completely in March this year, when Maleiane revealed that the country was unlikely to receive its LNG windfall until the late 2020s, owing to delays stemming from political and, somewhat ironically, economic instability. Like many other nations blessed with bountiful supplies of lucrative natural resources, Mozambique has struggled to support other industries while pursuing its offshore riches.

“A different focus towards economic transformation, beyond a singular emphasis on harnessing natural gas revenues, is required to bring about the necessary structural changes to the Mozambican economy,” said Balchin. “This could involve a combination of agro-processing and developing capabilities in manufacturing and services. But pursuing economic diversification through these channels will be difficult given the significant institutional challenges present in Mozambique.”

Mozambique’s efforts to diversify have not received much external help either. Hanlon laments the fact that the country has been forced into a trap by international financial institutions that have only been willing to support the mineral and energy industries. Unfortunately, the energy industry creates few jobs and centres on long-term projects that do little to alleviate present-day struggles.

“The obvious route for diversification would be to go into agriculture,” Hanlon explained. “Thailand represents a good model to follow, as it has become one of the world’s largest rice exporters as a result of huge government intervention to support family rice farmers. However, Mozambique isn’t being allowed to go down the same path. It can only do what foreign investors are prepared to pay for, and that’s minerals and energy.”

Donors like the IMF and the World Bank must also carry some of the blame for Mozambique’s inability to develop its other industries. In the name of neoliberal economics, these major aid suppliers pushed the government to significantly reduce state expenditure in exchange for funding. In the 1980s and 1990s, huge pressure was put on Mozambique to rapidly privatise, with the World Bank even supplying loans to privatised businesses when there was little prospect of them being repaid. Changing Mozambique’s economic structure was seemingly more important than sound economic principles.

Donors like the IMF and the World Bank must also carry some of the blame for Mozambique’s inability to develop its other industries

Writing for Third World Quarterly, Hanlon noted that the World Bank’s actions taught the Mozambicans “the lesson that capitalism is not about profit and production, but about patronage – businesses were privatised and given ‘loans’ that need not be repaid based on who you know and donor whim. And for the new businesses, government and donors were major customers and contracts with both were based on patronage, and often kickbacks”. This lesson not only prevented the government from supporting a diversified economy, it also provided a blueprint for the corruption at the heart of the tuna fishing loans.

Finding a way out
With substantial revenues from LNG not expected for another 10 years or so, Mozambique will need to find another way out of its current predicament. Given that the tuna fishing loans did not receive government approval, there have been calls for the debt to be written off. This now looks highly unlikely, following parliament’s decision to retrospectively validate the loans in April 2017.

The figures involved in the $2bn debt scandal are exorbitant; the price being paid by the Mozambican people is higher still

The best offer on the table at the time of World Finance going to print proposes delaying repayments until as late as 2034 and asks for forgiveness for half of the $249m Mozambique owes in missed interest payments. Three restructuring proposals have been suggested, none of which have been received particularly warmly by investors. However, creditors may have to get over their disappointment and accept the offer to avoid further government defaults – nobody is likely to be pleased with a 50 percent write-down on their repayments, but it is better than receiving nothing at all.

Once the restructuring is finalised, Mozambique may finally be able to rebuild its damaged economy. First, the government should encourage a reform of its banking sector: Mozambique has more banks per person than Africa’s two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa), and it should encourage smaller players to merge in order to fortify the sector against systemic collapse. Additional policies should then be implemented to help the country escape its reliance on natural resources.

“Exposure to international trade can stimulate productivity growth in particular sectors and facilitate the discovery and development of new productive capabilities,” Balchin said. “More also needs to be done to promote manufacturing linked to the country’s comparative advantages, such as location, availability of agricultural products and the presence of megaprojects around which linkages can be improved.”

If Mozambique is to reshape its economy, it will first need to be given the freedom to do so. If the IMF is truly committed to sustainable economic growth and reducing poverty, then it cannot impose a crippling programme of austerity on the country. Further investigation into the details of the debt scandal will also improve Mozambique’s financial credibility. In particular, the individuals and businesses responsible must be held to account.

The figures involved in the $2bn debt scandal are exorbitant; the price being paid by the Mozambican people is higher still. There is $500m that still remains unaccounted for, $713m that has been diverted through over-invoicing, and some $200m that has gone towards bank commissions. The three state-backed tuna companies that had no plausible business plans at the time the loans were issued remain largely inactive to this day.

During the Africa Rising conference in 2014, Christine Lagarde stated: “The IMF has been and will continue to be by [Mozambique’s] side.” The hidden loan scandal that surfaced two years later and the swift withdrawal of financial support showed how little those words truly meant. Undoubtedly, the government officials and private businesses responsible for the illegal debt should be punished, but until vital aid programmes are resumed, it is the ordinary citizens who will continue to suffer.

Baiduri Bank stimulates diversity in Brunei

The Baiduri Bank Group, one of the largest banking groups in the small South-East Asian nation of Brunei Darussalam, comprises Baiduri Bank and two wholly owned subsidiaries, Baiduri Finance and Baiduri Capital. Established in 1994, Baiduri Bank’s shareholders include Baiduri Holdings, Darussalam Assets and the French multinational and financial services company BNP Paribas. With a slew of awards and acco- lades under its belt, Baiduri Bank – now a leading conventional bank in Brunei – attributes its successes to its commitment to local projects, interests and clients, as well as its global expertise.

Given the prolonged low oil and gas prices, diversification efforts in Brunei have intensified steadily over the past few years: from a heavy reliance on the energy industry, the economy is now dedicated to the strong development and growth of local businesses. Pierre Imhof, CEO of Baiduri Bank, said: “There is an urgency for the country to diversify its economy, as there has been a very strong dependence on oil and gas as the main source of revenue for some time. In response, the government has set up numerous initiatives; among them is the Darussalam Enterprise, or DARe, which was created to cater to the business segment of the Bruneian market. Naturally, being a major player in Brunei’s financial sector, we too are actively taking steps to help finance these local businesses.”

Local focus
“Baiduri Bank’s focus has always been the Brunei market,” explained Imhof. Starting out as a commercial bank catering to corporate clients, Baiduri Bank’s core business now includes retail banking, corporate banking and consumer financing. Baiduri Bank also offers a wide range of financing products that support SME growth – for example, through helping to ease their cash flow management. “Besides SME financing, Baiduri offers various products targeted at helping businesses,” Imhof told World Finance. “Other products de- signed to serve SMEs include financial advice and corporate credit cards. We also provide internet banking facilities catered for businesses, known as Business i-Banking, which provides a modern, user-friendly and secure channel for businesses to manage and conduct their banking efficiently.”

Baiduri Bank has also set up a business hub, which serves to complement the corporate bank- ing department by tapping into the non-borrow- ing and small borrowing accounts. “We set up this dedicated hub as a point of contact for our current and future business customers. The purpose of the business hub is to provide information and advise our business customers on the type of ser- vices and offerings that are most suitable for their individual needs,” explained Imhof.

Elaborating on some of the products offered, Imhof said: “MerchantSuite provides a platform for our merchants to facilitate online payments, without needing to create a dedicated and often costly website. This allows micro enterprises – among others – to expand their business reach by improving their accessibility for customers.” Micro accounts, meanwhile, cater to the smaller businesses that do not meet the requirements of opening a normal business account. Crucially, the micro account enables micro, small and medium enter- prises (MSMEs) to subscribe to the MerchantSuite service and enjoy the associated benefits.

Baiduri Bank has also partnered with Brunei Shell Petroleum (BSP) to offer financing to local businesses under the BSP Credit Facility Pro- gramme. “This programme allows BSP contractors to fast track their service in reviewing and making a decision on their respective credit applications,” Imhof added.

Inculcating entrepreneurship
More recently, as a result of the government’s diversification efforts, Brunei has started to see a significant rise in the number of MSMEs in the nation. “There has been a shifting trend among the Bruneian youth to venture into entrepreneurship as their career choice,” Imhof noted.

In light of this trend, Baiduri Bank is also the main sponsor of the Junior Achievement Company Programme for Brunei, an after-gramme that sees Baiduri Bank staff acting in the roles of facilitators and mentors for school children to run a micro-business at their school. “We have collaborated with the Ministry of Education in Brunei to run this programme for the last four years,” said Imhof. “We believe that by exposing and teaching the youth of this alternative career option, it will help open the doors to more growth opportunities in the future.”

The importance of education
A vital aspect for Baiduri Bank to consider when trying to remain competitive in a rapidly chang- ing and progressive society is the increasing im- portance placed on financial planning. Imhof told World Finance: “Baiduri Bank provides a variety of tools and services to help educate our individu- al customers on understanding their options and how to best take control of their finances.”

Beyond the regulatory rules enforced by the authorities to control individuals’ debt levels, Baiduri Bank has a number of safeguards in place to ensure that its customers are not over-indebted. These measures include comprehensive guidelines on the eligibility of clients seeking financing options. Such precautions, however, do not stop at the bank itself. As explained by Imhof, it is essential that financial planning is brought to light at all levels of society: “As part of our commitment to educating the general public on financial planning, Baiduri regularly holds financial planning talks for schools, various government departments and private organisations. We also conduct mandatory risk profile assessments on our customers before they sign up for any of our wealth management products. This allows us to recommend the most suitable product that is both within their means and best matches their attitude towards investment.”

He continued: “At all of our branches, as well as our dedicated Wealth Management Centre, we provide complimentary financial planning consultation that includes gap analysis and retirement planning. We firmly believe in the old adage that preparation is the key to success.”

Baiduri Bank and its subsidiary Baiduri Cap- ital also regularly host investment seminars to both educate and inform customers of the latest market trends. “We partner with various experts from around the region, as well as our counter- parts in neighbouring countries, to discuss the latest trends in the market. This is part of our continuous efforts to keep them well-informed and to facilitate our clients in their investment strategies,” Imhof told World Finance.

An evolving landscape
With regards to the recent strengthening of global oil and gas prices, Imhof feels it’s unlikely that this will result in a shift back to a heavy reliance on the energy sector. “In today’s highly educated society, which has access to global information at its fingertips, there is a growing awareness that Brunei’s oil and gas reserves will not last forever.”

Imhof said that the country’s diversifica- tion efforts are already showing very positive results: “The Bruneian Government has taken many steps to curb the mindset of being an oil-and-gas-dependent society towards a more self-sufficient economy through their many diversification initiatives.”

Against this backdrop, Baiduri Bank has positioned itself as the leading conventional bank in Brunei – with growing market share too. As a result of its strong credit rating of BBB+/A-2 from Standard and Poor’s, along with its high level of liquidity, Baiduri Bank has recently purchased HSBC Brunei’s retail and commercial banking portfolio. “This comes in addition to the acquisi- tion of UOB’s retail portfolio just a few years back,” said Imhof. “These strategic moves have helped us secure a competitive position in the economy.”

Speaking about the banking industry’s journey towards a digital transformation, he added: “Baiduri Bank has taken steps to not only accommodate the current needs of our customers, but to also anticipate their future needs. That’s why the bank has invested heavily in data security and newer technologies to provide an enhanced banking experience, as well as digital banking.” Touching on the bank’s digital banking strategy, Imhof said: “Baiduri Bank has developed a comprehensive and user-friendly mobile banking app in keeping with the trend towards digital banking. We will also continue to further develop our electronic payment capabilities and e-banking services.”

In view of this constantly evolving market- place, there will undoubtedly be obstacles and challenges. With its three main core businesses doing extremely well and a continued focus on developing the local economy, Baiduri Bank is well positioned to be a major player in the national drive towards diversification.

‘Three pillars of citizenship’ driving investment immigration – CS Global

Citizenship and residence by investment consultants CS Global Partners help high net worth individuals find the right investment immigration programme for them. Andres Gutierrez discusses the growing demand in the industry, why you might prefer a residence-by-investment programme over a citizenship-by-investment scheme, and what they future may hold as we change the ways we think about citizenship. In the first half of this interview he explains the history of the citizenship by investment industry, the importance of the due diligence process that countries go through when assessing their potential citizens, and how to work out which programme is the best for you.

World Finance: How has supply and demand in the investor immigration industry changed, and what’s driving those changes?

Andres Gutierrez: The demand is based on what we call the three pillars of citizenship, which is basically physical safety, financial security, and lifestyle and accessibility.

Because at the end of the day, a person cannot be entirely happy if their family or their own personal safety is compromised, or they cannot do business properly. And they increasingly need to be doing business worldwide, from Asia to South America to North America, passing through Europe and Africa.

Obviously the countries has realised this, and they have been offering different solutions to this. We have the residence programmes and the citizenship programmes, and this is a way of enabling these applicants to have financial stability or further business prospects, but also drive foreign investment into their own economies.

World Finance: There’s been a rise in residence by investment programmes alongside citizenship by investment; what’s the difference, and why choose one or the other?

From a legal perspective, residence is the right, the legal right, to live in a certain jurisdiction. Citizenship on the other hand, is being a citizen of a nation, which obviously entitles the right to reside in that nation, but at the same time having the same rights and obligations and duties as the citizens of that nation. And the ability to apply for a passport.

This ability to apply for a passport, it translates into the ability of further travelling and doing business globally.

Why to choose one or the other? Again, we go back to the client’s needs. If the client wants to live in Spain for example, a Caribbean passport won’t be the solution.

World Finance: What is the profile of a typical citizenship programme investor?

Andres Gutierrez: Basically the profile is as we have discussed before, it is a person that is looking for the three pillars of citizenship: physical security, financial safety, and accessibility and lifestyle. And at the same time, access to other markets, which is something that, with these citizenships, can be achieved.

As an example of this, we had an applicant doing normal business with Europe and with many other countries. The problem is that from one day to another, this person wasn’t able to travel.

If a person is not able to travel, well perhaps it is fine. But for this particular business person, he was the only supplier of baby nappies and baby food and so on for his country. So it doesn’t affect only the entrepreneur, but it affects the entire population.

So, what this person did was basically he acquired a second citizenship, and with that citizenship was able to travel, was able to start that business going again, and that supply into the country again. So this is a triple-win situation: because this has allowed this person to travel freely on one side, to do business globally; that has allowed the country that gave him citizenship to receive his foreign direct investment; but at the same time the citizens of his country where he has his business have been allowed to start receiving nappies again.

World Finance: And what’s next in this rapidly evolving industry?

Andres Gutierrez: We see from our perspective for the future more programme offering, because at the end of the day it is the driver of foreign investment; together with a rise on advice like CS Global Partners. The need of having legal advice that basically understands not only the needs of the client but also understands the different options in the market, and can advise properly so the clients can make an informed decision.

This will lead at the same time to more regulation, more transparency, and to a final thing, which is nowadays we are looking, we are opting at one citizenship, two citizenships, but in five or 10 years it is not going to be about which citizenship do we hold but: how many citizenships do you think you would need in the next 10 years?

World Finance: Andres, thank you very much.

Andres Gutierrez: My pleasure, thank you.

 

Thanks for watching. Click through to watch the first half of this interview with Andres Gutierrez, discussing what makes a good citizenship by investment programme, and which country has the best. And please subscribe for the latest international business insights from worldfinance.com