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Crédito Real has always been a bold and innovative organisation. In 2012, it took the step of becoming a publicly traded company, and obtained a listing on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) the same year.
Following this decision, the company expanded exponentially, achieving an accelerated level of growth that has allowed it to assume the leading position it now holds in the industry.
For its work, Crédito Real is held in high esteem by both customers and the wider business community. Indeed, the company was recently given the Social Responsibilty Award for the fourth consecutive year and named an ‘inclusive company’ by the Mexican Centre for Philanthropy.
It was also named a ‘great place to work’ by the Great Place to Work Institute, and became the best rated company for corporate governance according to BMV rankings.
We expect to win many more accolades in the years to come, as the company continues to deliver results for a large and complex array of clients and businesses, while also investing in new and intelligent products.
Fostering growth
Though Crédito Real aims to serve a large market, it has been praised in particular for meeting the credit needs of the middle and lower-income sections of the population – two groups that have typically been neglected by the traditional banking sector.
Crédito Real has been able to offer these demographics a flexible approach and varied products. As a result, the company reached a portfolio of roughly MXN 24.2bn ($1.3bn) in the first half of 2017.
A large part of Crédito Real’s success comes down to its model for payroll credit. In an innovative move, the company’s portfolio now includes solid assets that belong to governmental institutions.
This contribution of federal funds guarantees the service and payment of original credits within the portfolio. Other crucial moves by Crédito Real include its strategic acquisition of Instacredit, a personal loans company based in Costa Rica, and the purchase of Don Carro, a used car loans business in the US.
It has never been more important for banking institutions to ensure their operations are as responsible and orderly as possible
During 2016, the company focused on achieving the growth objectives set for the year despite a challenging environment marked by unusually high volatility in key macroeconomic indicators. Fortunately, the landscape started to show signs of recovery and greater stability towards the second half of 2017.
The beginning of this year was characterised by the strengthening of our balance sheet, the reduction of exposure to operational and market risks, and the quality growth of our credit portfolio in accordance with the company’s long-term goals.
These achievements have been built on the concrete foundation of an orderly and stable operation. This is clearly reflected in our non-performing loan ratio of 2.1 percent, which is one of the healthiest and lowest in the Mexican financial market.
Similarly, the company has received important support from its business partners, which is reflected in the expansion of our portfolio through high-quality assets. Also worth noting are the strict controls on loan granting that we implement as a company.
Market presence
Currently, around 27 percent of our credit portfolio comes from businesses outside Mexico: from Costa Rica with Instacredit, and the US with Don Carro’s five stores in Texas.
In February 2016, Crédito Real acquired 70 percent of the capital stock of Marevalley, a Panamanian holding company with several entities operating under the Instacredit brand.
Instacredit currently has a network of 70 branches: 56 in Costa Rica, 12 in Nicaragua and two in Panama, in addition to having more than 450 promoters.
Instacredit is a well-recognised brand across Central America, with more than 15 years of experience, particularly with granting loans to middle and low-income segments of the population – those which Crédito Real aims to reach. Among Instacredit’s offered products are personal loans, automobile loans, SME loans and mortgage loans.
The North American market has always represented great potential for Crédito Real, especially the Hispanic segment without credit history, which is a demographic close to 50 million people.
For this reason, Crédito Real started operations under the Don Carro brand at the end of 2015, and acquired 65 percent of AFS Acceptance’s capital stock. AFS Acceptance is a company composed of 400 distributors of used and pre-owned car loans, and is licensed to operate in 40 states across the US.
Our used car loans portfolio in the US now represents approximately 11 percent of the company’s total loan portfolio.
Corporate governance
In recent years, as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, it has never been more important for banking institutions to ensure their operations are as responsible and orderly as possible. Without consolidation across business practices, the sector risks another economic collapse.
Fortunately, the international community has come to understand the importance of adequate and transparent management in publicly traded companies. Solid corporate governance in every single area of the company is the foundation for the effective functioning of markets overall, as it promotes credibility and stability, and contributes to accelerated growth and value creation.
In this regard, Crédito Real has been an industry leader and an inspiration to others looking to improve their quality controls.
Since its inception as a debt issuer, and following its IPO in 2012, Crédito Real has focused on strengthening its internal controls to ensure the efficient operation of the company.
At the same time, the company ensures it complies with best corporate governance practices to safeguard the interests of its shareholders and other stakeholders. We believe that collaboration is key to promoting the company’s success, as well as that of the country.
As a result, Crédito Real’s corporate governance is made up of a framework of values, rules and statutes that constantly regulate the operation of the bodies responsible for generating value for the company.
These include the board of directors, four supporting committees (executive, audit, corporate practices, and communication and control) and a strict code of ethics and business conduct.
Furthermore, most of Crédito Real’s committees have independent directors, and each is specialised in a specific area of global and national financial markets.
Solid proof of the robustness of the company’s corporate governance is the award recently received from the BMV. Crédito Real was given the best rating among 80 issuers for corporate governance under the IPC Sustentable methodology.
Looking ahead
The future is very promising for Crédito Real. The company’s target market continues to have great penetration potential in Mexico, and its recent expansion into the US and Central America provides an opportunity to further strengthen its stratification and growth within its core business, which is focused on providing financial solutions to the population neglected by traditional banking institutions.
The new digital era constitutes a powerful tool for improving access to financial services. Crédito Real has done its utmost to embrace the fintech revolution, collaborating with business partners such as ReSuelve and Credilikeme in order to bring forth new financial solutions through digitalisation.
More and more fintech companies are gaining strength in the Mexican banking market, and Crédito Real is deeply involved with the movement. The fintech revolution is one that will not only enhance banking operations and accessibility, but the lives of customers too.
At the same time, Crédito Real is very close to accomplishing its objective of becoming the world’s largest non-bank financial institution serving the Latin American market.
This ambition is supported by the company’s unique business model, and the synergies generated by its expert partners in the operation of different businesses and markets.
Crédito Real will continue to build on its strength because of its people, for all those who depend directly or indirectly on it. Simultaneously, we will continue promoting equality, respect and growth in the banking sector.
Likewise, the company will continue to support its customers in elevating their quality of life through a distinguished service that is reinforced by ethics and constant innovation, which, above all, helps them to go beyond their limits.
As the world’s fourth most populous nation, Indonesia has a predominantly young population. Indonesia is currently in a demographic sweet spot, where more than two million people will join the working-age group each year over the next decade. While this will bring significant benefits to the Indonesian economy, its housing market will need to accommodate the growing demands of Millennials.
Millennials are the most important generation for Indonesian developers at the current time, as approximately half of this demographic is at the prime age to buy their first home. However, increasing property prices in many cities have outpaced income growth over the past five years, making housing unaffordable for many.
According to research by Morgan Stanley: “To stay competitive, Indonesian property developers need to adapt to address the needs of the Millennial generation, which has to deal with increasing home prices and affordability issues. Prices have somewhat stabilised in the past two to three years, but wage growth has yet to catch up.”
The report went on to say: “At more than five times annual household income, and with average mortgage rates around 10-11 percent, housing is out of reach for many buyers.”
There are several characteristics of the Millennial segment that make for interesting discussion. First, the Millennial generation (those between 23 and 37 years old) is one that will sustain Indonesia’s future. According to the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, Millennials currently make up more than 50 percent of the productive age population (those aged 16-64).
Indonesia is predicted to reach peak productive age population between 2020 and 2030, with the portion reaching around 70 percent of the total population (see Fig 1).
Second, the Millennial segment is an attractive target market in the property industry. While their purchasing power is not yet strong, they effectively influence their parents in the purchase of property. Third, they are potential buyers as well as future markets; many Millennials are already working and may have formed a household. Success in conquering the Millennial segment is a door to a larger property market.
Despite the increasing impact of Millennials on the property market, some developers continue to pay little attention to this burgeoning segment. This is understandable due to the high capital requirements and small profit margins of the Millennial market. However, Millennials offer an opportunity for success that shouldn’t be disregarded.
As developers seek to penetrate the Millennial sector, they should not merely rely on features, facilities and access to sell property. Millennials are an active and experiential generation, and so creating an experience is tantamount to increasing their interest.
Developers need to consider not just how to build a residential area, but how to make the area come alive. This generation is smart and sociable; providing elements of education, aesthetics and entertainment are important to gaining their custom.
The Millennial generation prefers products that are appealing, practical and affordable. Therefore, property developers need to be innovative in creating properties with attractive designs and lifestyle support facilities – crucially, at affordable prices.
Millennial decision-making
When choosing where to live, Millennials place value on different factors than previous generations did. Maintaining an established lifestyle is important for this age group: they expect their place of residence to be near proper facilities, neighbourhood attractions and entertainment, green space, sports facilities, schools and hospitals.
Living close to work is important to this generation, as they want to minimise travel time to and from work to allow for more time with their families and friends and enjoying hobbies. Not only do Millennials value different things to older generations, but they also use different methods when searching for a new place to live.
Millennials are up-to-date with the latest technology, and so they choose to access information about homes on the market via gadgets such as smartphones. This increases the exposure of the products being offered by property developers.
Milliennials are also very information-literate. They are aggressively looking for property information, such as location, price comparison, developer credibility, building details, payment processing and developer track records. These factors combine to mean that, when choosing somewhere to live, this generation uses technology to access information about the area.
They can gather references from surrounding communities about basic needs, places of interest, restaurant ratings, healthcare and so on. For them, information found through the media is much more convincing than having to find out directly, and therefore plays a significant role in shaping Millennials’ decisions.
The Millennial generation is particularly critical, and is usually aware of a product’s advantages and disadvantages. Property is not cheap, so it needs to be presented in an objective and interesting way to be worth investment. Furthermore, Millennials value a high return on investment: they are careful to choose property that will have a positive outlook for the future.
The right timing and momentum is very important for this age group. They will not purchase a home or property during holiday season. Usually, they will buy a house when they want to get married, or after they are married with children.
Houses in Jakarta are too expensive for most Millennials, and so they have begun to look at the possibility of having their first home in a satellite city. Close and easy access to mass public transport and the absence of flooding issues are among factors leading Millennials to select a place of residence outside the capital city.
Catering to first-time buyers
The difficulties that the Millennial generation faces when purchasing property have been largely ignored by Indonesian property developers. As mentioned previously, few developers are focusing on Millennials as potential future buyers, and many developers are reluctant to invest in building products for the Millennial generation due to less promising returns in terms of profit and prestige.
Companies prefer to focus on expensive and luxurious housing developments with state-of-the-art facilities that will add to the their long-standing portfolio.
However, one Indonesian property developer that has turned its focus to meeting the residential needs of the Millennial generation is Paramount Land. Ervan Adi Nugroho, President of Paramount Land, explained that the company is committed to providing affordable residential housing and property for businesses, particularly start-up companies, and for Millennials.
“Unfortunately, this generation tends to assume that property is not a basic need in their lives. Yet they make up the largest share of the workforce in Indonesia today, which is estimated to be more than 22.5 million people,” Nugroho said.
Given the contribution that Millennials are making to the Indonesian economy, Paramount Land is committed to helping them join the property ladder by educating them on the importance of owning property early on. Hence, Paramount Land offers several residential clusters in Gading Serpong, the flagship township development of Paramount Land, which are suitable for first-time buyers. These areas include the likes of Milano Village, Napoli Village, Havana Village and Bermuda Village.
The Millennial generation prefers products that are appealing, practical and affordable. Property developers need to be innovative in creating such properties
In these residential clusters, which consist of 100-150 units per cluster, Paramount Land offers compact homes with homegrown concepts that are perfect for first-time buyers and Millennials.
Another advantageous feature of Paramount Land is the ease of payment: buyers can pay through incremental instalments or bank mortgages. With prices starting from IDR 700m ($52,435) per unit, first-time buyers can have a comfortable, affordable home in a premium area. “We deliver products that are in tune with Millennials’ earnings, therefore these products are well received by the market,” Nugroho said.
Paramount Land is known for developing communities where private residences and places of business co-exist in centralised areas. This allows Millennials to start their own businesses in close proximity to their homes.
“We will not only provide homes, but also provide opportunities for residents to open their own businesses near their homes,” said Nugroho. “We believe this development will boost entrepreneurial spirit as well as help to oil the wheels of the regional economy. Developers are expected to be creative and innovative in helping the government make breakthroughs among the critical Millennial market.”
Overall, 2016 will be remembered as a challenging year for Sri Lanka. Disappointing performance in the agriculture, transportation and real estate sectors dragged GDP growth down, dwindling to 4.5 percent from 4.8 percent in 2015.
Paradoxically, however, rather than being held back, the banking sector has witnessed steady growth. Sampath Bank is a prime example of the kind of fresh approach that typifies the innovation driving growth against the odds.
In particular, the Sri Lankan economy has been held back as a result of muted growth in the agricultural sector. This comes down to a combination of factors, including erratic weather conditions, rising interest rates and an adverse global environment.
Adverse weather conditions also impacted inflation levels, pushing the rate upwards in the early part of last year before it came to a peak between May and June. These high inflation levels subsided as the year progressed, however, with inflation rates ending the year at 4.2 percent.
Overall, 2016 marked the fourth consecutive year in which inflation has hovered in the mid-to-low single digit territory.
Economic woes
The apparel industry – Sri Lanka’s second-largest foreign exchange earner – also came under pressure in 2016, amid increased uncertainty across key European markets following the unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote. The year saw a decline in imports too, as a result of the high duties imposed by the government to curb vehicle imports.
Meanwhile, ailing external reserves have prompted authorities to negotiate an external fund facility with the IMF, and enter into an ambitious reform programme.
The agreement will provide $1.5bn in parallel with reforms that seek to reduce the country’s fiscal deficit and rebuild foreign exchange reserves. It will also introduce a simpler, more equitable tax system in a bid to restore macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth.
On a positive note, while the Sri Lankan economy has been hit by a raft of challenges, 2016 has seen per capita income reach $3,870, putting the country firmly on course to reach its goal of becoming a middle-income economy by 2020.
Riding the storm
Despite being mired in an unstable economic arena, Sri Lanka’s banking industry not only emerged unscathed, but made substantial progress in 2016. Indeed, it has gone from strength to strength to become one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy, and stands out as particularly successful when compared to the banking and finance sectors of other countries in the region.
Illustratively, the quantity of new loans is on an upward trend, with total loans up by 17.5 percent in 2016. This has mainly been driven by an increase in banks lending to the private sector, with a particularly marked increase in loans and advances to construction, consumption, manufacturing, and financial and business services.
This strong credit appetite has led to a 12 percent rise in banking sector assets over the course of the year, while deposits grew by 16.5 percent.
Crucially, at the same time, there has been an industry-wide improvement in credit management strategies and financial discipline. For one, capital and liquidity levels remain well above the minimum regulatory requirement.
Furthermore, in a clear sign of the improving health of Sri Lanka’s banks, the sector-wide non-performing loan ratio declined to 2.6 percent in 2016 from 3.2 percent recorded at the end of 2015.
The accessibility of banking facilities has also been enhanced with the expansion of branch networks and ATM facilities.
Leading the way
The Sampath Bank vision is to be the ‘growing force’ in Sri Lankan financial services. Indeed, as a top-tier bank in Sri Lanka, Sampath Bank has epitomised the positive momentum seen in the banking sector.
As a rule, we always take a proactive stance towards improving strategic alignment to drive stronger growth and deliver the greatest impact on stakeholder value.
Central to a forward-thinking business model is a people-focused approach. Critically, our business is based on strong fundamentals, which, for the past three decades, has helped us to serve the people of Sri Lanka.
At present, the bank serves its customers via a broad network of 229 branches, 381 ATMs and 108 automated cash deposit kiosks.
For the year ahead, we have embraced a broader performance-driven strategy, which will heavily support services and sharpen their alignment with the bank’s core vision.
Central to a forward-thinking business model is a people-focused approach
Specifically, Sampath’s focus continues to be divided between the commercial and retail sectors. For the commercial side, we are strengthening our roots by adopting a two-pronged approach.
First, this involves increasing penetration in order to capture market share in selected retail segments, while simultaneously leveraging our unique solutions to be a trendsetter in the corporate sector.
In the medium term, the bank is also expanding beyond Sri Lanka, with new offshore operations across the region.
Sampath’s strategy ensures that, in spite of external challenges, the bank boasts above average growth across all key indicators. Indeed, we reached record profit levels for 2016, at LKR 9.1bn ($60.8m), the highest since the bank’s inception 30 years ago in 1987. Year-on-year growth in profits after tax was also exceptional, at 49 percent.
This performance was underpinned by an expanding deposit portfolio, improved CASA ratio and stellar asset growth. Notably, at 25.4 percent, our asset growth rate once again far exceeded the industry average of 12 percent.
In another important landmark, Sampath Bank’s total asset base surpassed the LKR 600bn ($3.9bn) mark to reach LKR 659bn ($4.3bn) at the end of 2016. This was achieved over the course of just 30 years – a far shorter period than most other banks – again underscoring Sampath’s remarkable growth.
Sampath’s loan book also grew by 21.3 percent, which compares well with industry credit growth of 17.5 percent in 2016. Crucially, Sampath Bank achieved this credit growth without compromising on credit quality.
The year also saw our non-performing ratio improve from 1.64 percent at the end of 2015 to 1.61 percent at the end of 2016, a level that is among the lowest across the whole industry.
Furthermore, as a result of our prudent cost management strategies, we were able to reduce our cost-to-income ratio to 47.8 percent by the end of 2016, bringing it below 50 percent for the first time in six years.
The bank’s strong fundamentals have supported strong returns for investors, as well as a steady rise in market value and a constant dividend payout
ratio of around 37 percent.
Driving innovation
Sampath Bank has built a reputation as one of the most innovative banks in Sri Lanka, thanks to the launch of several pioneering products in recent years. By embracing the digital world, the bank has been able to revolutionise the customer experience.
A broad shift towards more digital processes – such as for opening an account – is helping to enable seamless data transmission and the integration of processes with the core banking system.
A key initiative has been the launch of a new user-friendly online tool named the ‘e-Mandate’, which allows customers to complete all account opening forms online for the first time.
Another exciting step forward is the introduction of the online transaction upload system, which gives the electronic banking unit the ability to automate responses coming from the biller’s applications, as well as efficiency in handling reversals.
As part of the digital shift, Sampath is also working to integrate banking into mobile technology, driving forward with the ‘missed call banking’ feature, which allows customers to receive information on their bank balances via their mobile phones.
What’s more, Sampath has also pushed the boundaries of digital banking with a new online real-time lending facility, dubbed the ‘Sampath instant loan’.
Introduced to Sri Lanka’s financial sector for the first time, this unique facility allows customers to obtain loans against their fixed deposits by simply submitting an instant loan application through the bank’s secure online platform.
Additionally, for the first time in Sri Lanka, contactless payments have been made possible with the Visa Paywave card, enabling dramatically faster processing of payments, and allowing customers to tap and pay quickly and conveniently in shops.
Digital transformation is also helping to support employees, who are being provided with new online tools such as the ‘e-Operational Guide’, which enables employees to search for documents including operational guidelines, circulars, directives and the e-library system.
Such developments are part of Sampath Bank’s efforts to embrace a continuous learning approach, and help employees to improve their knowledge and perform their jobs more accurately and effectively.
This unique approach, which leverages digital transformation, continuous learning and prudent risk management, is setting Sampath apart as the central growing force in Sri Lankan financial services.
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Disruption is the new buzzword in the financial services arena. Nowadays, it seems that the monetary landscape is constantly shifting, with new trends emerging and changing the face of banking. In the recent past, banks were the gatekeepers of people’s financial data, and they facilitated almost all exchanges of money.
Now, however, new technology has given rise to a multitude of fintech start-ups that are challenging banks, payment platforms, monetary policies and customer relations. In a world that’s increasingly digital, traditional banking platforms are fast becoming obsolete. Leading the charge of disruption is the proliferation of cryptocurrencies and alternative payment methods.
Another significant disruptor on the horizon is open banking. Deloitte’s 2016 report Banking Reimagined identified a growing trend towards eliminating middlemen and dismantling the borders between institutions and users.
The report claimed that we’re heading towards a future of trading without traders, investing without managers and transacting more directly through an ‘extended ecosystem’ of banks, third-party vendors, fintech firms and payment platforms.
As a result of continually evolving digital connectivity and institutional collaboration, the concept of open banking has materialised as an inevitable disruption in the financial world.
But what is it exactly?
Wide open
Open banking relies on the use of open-source application programming interfaces (APIs) that connect computing systems together through a shared digital language.
The idea is to increase transparency and accessibility for customers, while facilitating third parties – such as challenger banks, fintech firms, software developers and payment platforms – to build financial applications.
It’s a world where accountants, auditors and shareholders would have direct access to transactional data, and banks would move away from insular frameworks. The end result would significantly benefit the end user – the consumer – because the combination of smart data and smart systems would be able to, for example, recommend the best type of bank account and most suitable institution according to your financial history and behaviour.
Open banking is the biggest change to the system since the invention of the chequebook
Henry Chesbrough, Head of the Centre for Open Innovation at the University of California’s Haas School of Business, coined the term that became the name of his centre, and has written extensively about the topic.
‘Open innovation’ ascertains that companies need to become less insular and look beyond their own house to cultivate new innovations that will grow their business and enhance their services for end-users.
Chesbrough’s philosophy is based on the central idea that knowledge is not exclusive to a single entity, but exists in employees, consumers, competitors and third-party contractors.
Chesbrough’s ideas have taken flight and found their way into the banking sector as open banking. Financial institutions are increasingly finding themselves cornered, as consumers demand a holistic banking experience and increased access to third-party resources.
The US’ Mint app is a prime example. Developed in the late 2000s, Mint provides an overview of consumers’ finances by amalgamating their banking history into one place.
The demand from consumers was so great that, less than two years after its launch, Mint was registering 7,000 new users on a daily basis; it now boasts over 20 million. However, fintech start-ups like Mint are still powerless against the regulated banking establishment, which is where open banking comes in.
The doors of innovation
While the financial world was arguably blindsided by the rise of cryptocurrencies, preparations for open banking are now in full swing. Europe and the UK are leading the charge, with software companies like TESOBE in Berlin forming the Open Bank Project as a source of open APIs and third-party apps for banks to utilise.
In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has commissioned an open banking initiative to bridge the gap between new banks seeking to increase their clientele and more established ones that are not competitive enough.
In September 2015, the Open Banking Working Group (OBWG) was set up at the request of the UK Treasury to explore how data could be used to help people transact, save, borrow, lend and invest their money.
Through the research and work of the OBWG and other establishments, such as Sir Tim Berners-Lee’s Open Data Institute, an open banking standard has surfaced. According to these institutions, the open banking standard is expected to come into full effect in 2019.
On July 5, the CMA publicly released a list of API specifications for accounts, transaction information and payment initiation. Imran Gulamhuseinwala, a trustee of the Open Banking Implementation Entity, said on its website: “The specifications provide the platform for developers… to build new web and mobile applications that will deliver a safer, more personalised, and easier banking experience for consumers.”
This framework was developed in tandem with the payments API, which is scheduled to go live in January 2018, and will allow third parties to “create secure payments on behalf of customers and submit payments for processing”.
Open banking has become such a topic du jour that the SWIFT Institute commissioned a case study, resulting in a comprehensive research paper entitled The API Economy and Digital Transformation in Financial Services: The Case of Open Banking. Published in June 2017, and available to download from the SWIFT website, Markos Zachariadis and Pinar Ozcan’s investigation shows how challenging, yet inevitable, the new system is.
They conclude that open banking is a priority for banks and financial institutions looking to expand their clientele. “Those who move early to establish an attractive platform will obtain a customer base that is increasingly unwilling to switch to competitors, as more and more third-party developers offer services as part of the platform,” according to the report.
In fact, 2018 is gearing up to become the year of open banking. The EU’s revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2) was passed in November 2015, and is expected to take effect in January 2018. It will give third-party, non-banking firms, including online retailers, the access to handle payments for customers with bank accounts directly and securely.
What will be fascinating to see is how this new response to open banking will be impacted once the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) comes into play on May 25, 2018. This new regulation will replace the old data directive that has governed Europe since 1995.
The aim of the GDPR is to unify EU regulations in ways that will place control of personal data on a customer level, and simplify the ways data is stored, shared and transacted within and without the EU.
What’s the catch?
As passionately as open banking proponents sell the concept, the reality is that its future is muddied by unknown factors. How banking establishments that have functioned for generations will feel about sharing their modus operandi with young fintech start-ups and software developers is a question mark that casts a long and crooked shadow over the entire transition.
For open banking to truly work, these powerhouse banks need to commit fully to Chesbrough’s ideal of openness, even with competitors – not something they’re especially famous for.
Then there’s the regulations of the online data-sharing world; with PSD2 and the open banking standard moving ahead, regulators are obviously adapting and taking notice of the shifting landscape, but how long before the average consumer feels fully assured that their money is secure and private?
In a digital world where cyber warfare can be waged and hackers have the savvy to break through online barricades, sending sensitive financial data directly to third parties through APIs may feel scarier than going down to your local branch and dealing directly with the teller.
Even in view of the multitude of unknowns within the sector, however, experts are sure that open banking is the future. Perhaps those who are feeling weak at the knees over this eventuality should look to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) for reassurance.
RBS is embracing open banking, assessing how APIs can help it engage with its customers, as well as how it can transform its in-house organisation. Alan Lockhart, Head of Open Banking and Fintech Solutions at RBS, claims that every bank will have to come to terms with open banking, whether they like it or not, because, as he told CNBC: “[It’s] the biggest change to the banking system since the invention of the chequebook.”
This new approach to how financial data is handled, stored, transacted and dispersed is arguably a game changer for any company that deals with payments, in any shape or form. Brokers like FXTM, for example, which thrive on keeping clients active through a regular flow of deposits and withdrawals, will undoubtedly get in on the open source API action.
Emerging markets will also benefit from open banking. Countries in areas such as Latin America and Africa, where many people do not have bank accounts, are a prime target for this technology. The ability to identify financial products tailored to individual needs could, potentially, increase access to mortgages, credit, and investment opportunities.
From the ways customers fund their accounts, to the connectivity of various platforms, the possibilities this innovation offers are endless. Whatever your industry, focus, or market, an open future is certainly starting to look like a brighter future.
A distorted view of private banking in Africa conjures the image of an institution that is shrouded in mystery and often ensconced in controversy. For the better informed, however, private banks have a very significant place in the history of banking and the future of Africa. This is also the case in developed nations, where their existence dates as far back as the 17th century.
A 2016 report on private banks by Scorpio Partnership shows that the top 25 private banks globally accounted for more than $11trn of the assets belonging to high-net-worth (HNW) clients, representing 56.3 percent of the total private banking assets under management (AUM). UBS, the Swiss private bank, alone accounted for $1.7trn in AUM – approximately 50 percent of Africa’s total GDP.
Cary Springfield, in an article for International Banker in July 2014, drew attention to the growth potential of a continent in which HNW individuals were estimated to hold combined assets of $1.3trn at the time. In the article, it was also projected that the continent’s private banking market would expand at a rate of eight percent over the next decade.
Outside of common observations, there are divergent views as to what a private bank truly represents. This is unfortunately compounded by the fact that the private banking business is often misunderstood – sometimes even within the larger corporate institutions in which such banks operate.
What is a private bank?
A private bank could be described as a financial institution that provides banking services, wealth management and lifestyle solutions to HNW individuals. These can be further distinguished by four categories. The first is by the client segment served, in which the focus lies largely on HNW individuals.
These clients would typically have more complex financial needs than the average retail banking client. The private bank thus provides core banking services, such as loans, credit cards, current accounts and savings accounts, as well as wealth management solutions.
A well-established private bank would also cater to the lifestyle needs of its clients, with many offering some form of concierge service.
Then there is differentiated strategy, which sees the profile and needs of the classic private banking client as distinctively unique. A typical private banking client requires more personalised banking, and is more rate-sensitive and exposed to other banking cultures than the average retail banking client, with some clients having existing relationships with offshore private banks with whom they continually benchmark the services they receive locally.
Every individual has a right to privacy, but this should not be misconstrued as a right to secrecy
Banks have learnt quickly enough that a separate but distinct strategy must be applied to this niche of clients.
Competencies are the third category. A private banker’s competence is demonstrated by their depth of knowledge of financial markets and products, as well as the quality of advice availed to clients at different life stages. This also sets private banks apart from other financial institutions.
For example, a 55-year-old HNW client, who plans to retire at 60, is expected to be naturally concerned about the adequacy of his or her retirement savings, and would look to their private banker for proper guidance. This implies that the private banker is well acquainted with financial planning principles.
It is important to note, though, that outside the rigours and disciplines of saving money, it is the quality of the investment advice given to the client, ultimately reflected in the prescribed asset allocation and choice of products, that truly conveys the value of having a private banker.
Indeed, a private bank should be able to apply the right tools to determine a client’s investment risk profile and also to come up with a plan for allocating investible funds into matching asset classes.
Finally, there is the demographics category. In the past two decades, there has been rapid growth in the number of upwardly mobile multijurisdictional families, driven either by children schooling abroad or parents choosing to invest in offshore properties or liquid assets.
With offshore markets being governed by separate rules for residency and taxes, the latter could be quite punitive if not properly planned. Given such differences, a private bank should be able to provide guidance to its clients or at least help them find the right professional advice to ensure that they are adequately protected at all times.
Existential threats
Having made the attempt to distinguish private banks from other structures or closely related institutions, it is important that we also understand the nature of the challenges encountered by these institutions. First of all, every individual has a right to privacy, but this should not be misconstrued as a right to secrecy.
Rather, a private bank should build a reputation for ensuring the privacy of its clients’ affairs while also adhering to the full requirements of the law.
More often than not, the greatest risk to the existence of a private bank lies in reputational breaches, hence the importance of having proper risk controls.
Another major challenge lies in determining the place of the private bank within the retail bank. There are different options, which may include running the business as a standalone enterprise or embedding it within a larger retail structure.
While there is no right or wrong way, it is important that the private bank has full responsibility for its clients, and that its leadership also has both the latitude and flexibility to take business decisions when required.
Beyond these structural considerations, the products themselves are a further challenge, as private bankers in local institutions often complain about limited product choices. You also often find, within such institutions, there are no clearly defined routes for product innovation or deployment, with many running on an ad-hoc basis instead.
However, a private bank cannot be successful without having the right suite of wealth management, asset management or advisory resources.
Regulatory pressure is another challenge facing private banks today. With the threats of money laundering and terrorist financing becoming more pervasive in many jurisdictions, regulators have in turn placed a greater responsibility on the senior management of private banks to be fully compliant without exception to all client onboarding and transaction monitoring rules.
While the measures are aimed to ensure that business is carried out in a responsible and compliant manner, the unintended consequence is a lengthened onboarding process, particularly where an offshore relationship is necessary for a client.
Notwithstanding, all private banks should adhere strictly to the applicable regulations within their jurisdictions and strengthen their risk control frameworks.
Finding a direction
Private banks often struggle to gain streamlined information on their clients and their preferences in order to support decision-making. For example, static data on age and gender, appropriately grouped, could help determine the life stage and types of wealth management products to be developed for such clients.
Similarly, information on their personal interests in a structured manner would support the creation and distribution of lifestyle products.
Often, you have clients looking for direction but feeling unfulfilled when product delivery is poor. In this respect, private bankers are expected to be several notches higher than regular relationship managers in terms of their knowledge; they are expected to be well informed on macro and microeconomic changes and the implications for their clients’ assets.
A private banker is also expected to have very sound knowledge of investment products and how they are applied.
Another challenge worth mentioning is that of technology, which is becoming more relevant by the day, particularly at a time when robo-advisors and their algorithms are replacing humans. To provide proper guidance to clients, the process around client risk profiling, as well as portfolio rebalancing in line with the approved investment or ‘house themes’, can be best driven where the appropriate technology tools and platforms exist.
The distinction between ‘old money’ and ‘new money’ also introduces a subtle challenge for wealth managers, not just in Africa but everywhere. Private banks must therefore seek new and creative ways to reach out to Millennials, who are typically tech-savvy and the recipients of ‘new money’.
African horizon
Private banks in Africa – and indeed Nigeria, with its distinct population size – are here to stay. They have formed, and will continue to form, an invaluable part of our banking history and future banking in the continent. Banking opportunities in Africa will continue to blossom.
Capgemini, in its World Wealth Report 2016, recorded that Africa has 150,000 HNW individuals, accounting for $1.4trn in qualifying assets. This is in spite of a drop in commodity prices and the subsequent impact on resource-dependent economies.
The key task facing wealth managers lies in sustaining growth and being more deliberate in their execution. Competition for business isn’t just with the banks, but also with other local and foreign providers of wealth management products, including ‘briefcase’ advisors that fly in and out of the continent daily.
Banks that will prevail are those that are both anticipatory and creative, given the thrust of inflation, dwindling resource prices, regulatory changes and so much more that these institutions have to live with on a daily basis.
Leading the private banking arm of the largest Nigerian bank by deposits, FirstBank Private Banking, has been both an instructive and enriching experience.
This has involved exploring the wonderful synergies existing within the retail distribution of over 750 business locations locally and seven offshore subsidiaries in the FirstBank Group, including the unique heritage inherent in FBNBank UK Private Banking.
Indeed, with eyes on the horizon, our strength is focused on continuing to build customised wealth solutions for our clients, and leveraging the opportunities presented by the improving distribution of wealth in Africa.
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Today’s economic environment is unprecedented. It is marked by negative interest rates and a near-flat rate curve, as well as increasing regulatory pressure. Aside from these already trying factors, the financial landscape is disrupted further by heightened and diversified competition from non-banking sectors, in line with the profound changes brought about by digital technology.
In spite of these myriad challenges, Crédit Mutuel endeavours to strengthen the unity of all of its related institutions, while still respecting the diversity of the 19 federations and six federal banks that make up its composition. In doing so, the bank strives to live up to the trust placed in it by its mutual directors, members and customers.
This trust was confirmed in 2017, when Crédit Mutuel became the winner for the banking sector in BearingPoint and TNS Sofres’ Customer Relationship Podium Awards for the 10th time. This string of victories highlights how Crédit Mutuel remains the preferred bank of French people.
The group’s motto, ‘a bank owned by its customers, that changes everything’, means, first and foremost, having a direct link to our customer-members, which requires us to listen, serve and be responsible.
This bond allows us to focus our investments in a way that best meets the needs and expectations of our customers and their respective regions, and to understand, before all other banks, the business sectors that will directly benefit customer-members in the future.
Cooperative approach
Crédit Mutuel is one of the soundest banks in Europe. Our ratings – A from Standard & Poor’s, A+ from Fitch and Aa3 from Moody’s – reflect this, and are among the highest throughout France. This recognised financial stability is a result of the commitment of all the group’s employees and mutual elected directors, which secures the trust of all our partners.
In 2016, Crédit Mutuel Group comprised 2,107 local banks, 19 federations and six federal banks. Together, they have found the right balance between responsible independence, unity and solidarity.
The National Confederation, which is responsible for prudential coherence, owns and guarantees the proper use of the Crédit Mutuel brand and defends collective interests. It also ensures the smooth operation and cohesion of the group.
Crédit Mutuel is a strong model of mutualism, which I am convinced is a resolutely modern idea. Through the variety of services that we offer, we are much more than a bank, thanks to the strength of our organisation, which fits into the global network.
We find this to be the case because, at heart, we are a network of local banks, and so collaboration and mutual support is integral to our existence. Furthermore, because we are constantly focused on using technological innovation to support individuals, ethics, responsibility and professional conduct, the example we set can be found throughout our governance.
Remaining the bank of the future means continuing to bring together seemingly contradictory values.
Staying close
The first of our core values is ‘performance and proximity’. This means remaining close to our customers and members, even if they are far away. Through this commitment, we are able to unite regional groups around the values of mutualism – subsidiarity, solidarity and soundness – and around our Crédit Mutuel brand.
In this way, we can actively, responsibly and effectively finance the development and vitality of our regions, while also responding to tomorrow’s economic and societal challenges.
Crédit Mutuel Group works alongside all those involved in the regional economy, including self-employed professionals and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Rated as the number-three bank for SMEs, Crédit Mutuel finances some 680,000 customers and has a market share close to 16 percent.
The group is strongly positioned among business start-ups, which can be attributed to its many partnerships with start-up support organisations. Its partners include leading start-up support networks such as Initiative France, France Active, BGE and ADIE.
Crédit Mutuel’s local banks are central to the physical, digital and telephone relationships we have with customers. We respond to customer needs by offering simple, innovative and secure products and services, and also through the quality of our advice.
This has given rise to new types of interaction between account managers and customers and, concomitantly, to new professional prospects for employees, with the goal of further enhancing their responsiveness and availability. As such, customers can contact their account managers at any time.
This can be via the internet through smartphones and tablets, through secure emails and phone calls, or even through social networks. Our account managers can also communicate with customers via sales points and electronic payment services.
In providing so many different avenues, we merge local banking with physical and digital channels to ensure even better convenience, attention and advice.
At present, customers can already subscribe to products and perform processes via our remote channels. By the end of 2018, they will be able to subscribe to most of the group’s products.
For example, they will be able to take out consumer loans using an electronic signature, view all their accounts (including those with rival banks), capture documentary proof using their smartphone, and consult their bank statements and contracts online.
‘Soundness and solidarity’ is another core value at Crédit Mutuel, which means ensuring that all our federations and federal banks continue to enjoy balanced development and financial security.
In a world marked by fragmentation and the pursuit of individual strategies, Crédit Mutuel is developing a socially responsible and future-oriented approach. We are committed to securing the trust of our customers and members, our mutual elected directors, and our employees.
While respecting the independence of its local banks, federations and regional banks, the group’s strong emphasis on unity also provides them with necessary support, in addition to contributing to economic and social development.
Owned by customers
Crédit Mutuel is a cooperative, mutual bank governed by the French cooperatives law of September 10, 1947. Created more than a century ago, its origins date back to the local cooperative associations set up by Frédéric-Guillaume Raiffeisen, which laid the foundations of the cooperative movement, including the principles of social responsibility, solidarity among members and regional roots.
Now, 150 years later, Crédit Mutuel still belongs exclusively to its 7.7 million members, who own its capital and shape its strategy within a framework of democratic governance.
As a mutual bank, Crédit Mutuel makes all decisions with its members in mind. Though it expands, it continues to remain true to its founding values: proximity, solidarity and social responsibility.
At heart, we are a network of local banks, and so collaboration and mutual support is integral to our existence
These values form Crédit Mutuel’s identity, set it apart from other banks, and confirm the relevance of its business model in support of its members and society as a whole. Crédit Mutuel’s general meetings, which are organised annually by each local bank, give members the opportunity to voice their opinion according to the ‘one person, one vote’ principle.
At the end of 2016, Crédit Mutuel had 7.7 million members and 30.7 million customers at over 2,000 local banks, run by more than 24,000 member-elected representatives. These directors are themselves committed, active members who participate in the administration of a local bank alongside employees. As members of the local community, they convey and promote Crédit Mutuel’s values.
The mission of the central body – Confédération Nationale du Crédit Mutuel – is to defend the collective interests of its member-customers, while also protecting and promoting the Crédit Mutuel brand (to which it holds the rights), and ensuring the group’s prudential coherence.
In a tough environment, shaken by low interest rates as well as stiffer competition and regulations, Crédit Mutuel continues to forge ahead with a single goal: remaining united in its diversity and affirming the uniqueness of its banking model so as to build the bank of the future.
The results reflect the dynamic momentum of all the regional groups and their diversity. They reflect their multiple initiatives, the quality of their digital transformation and, of course, the trust placed in them by their member-customers.
At Crédit Mutuel, our key success factors are the dynamic momentum of our networks, the importance given to the training of staff and elected members, and, naturally, our local physical and digital presence, which ensures a constantly improving service for our customers.
As well as being a local bank that is present throughout France, Crédit Mutuel also has an international dimension. Underpinned by its strong financial position and the vitality of its networks, the group has continued to expand in France and Europe, and is now present in 13 countries.
As a bank committed to responsible and sustainable growth in support of the economy, it has kept its focus on adapting continuously, while still keeping its unique identity.
The almighty dollar is struggling. The currency has lost 10 percent of its value so far in 2017, marking its worst start to a year since 2002. Although currency fluctuations are inevitable, the dollar is now falling in the context of market conditions that are historically associated with an increase in value.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing military standoff with North Korea, usually see markets rushing to support safe-haven currencies like the dollar.
The fact that the US is involved in much of the ongoing international friction may be reason enough to undermine these historical norms, but other factors are also at work.
Current monetary policy at the US Federal Reserve would also traditionally be seen as supportive of a strong currency. Interest rate rises and the announcement that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce its balance sheet would normally see the dollar increase in value. These are not normal times, however, and the evidence suggests that currency markets did not envisage the impact of the new US president.
Words have consequences
Donald Trump’s surprise election win saw the dollar surge following campaign promises of substantial economic reform. However, proposed tax breaks for businesses and infrastructural spending have not materialised, with the Trump administration facing sustained resistance in Congress. And, as the market’s confidence in Trump’s economic policies has dwindled, so has support for the dollar.
Threatening to unleash “fire and fury” or shut down the government does not inspire market confidence
In addition, Trump’s provocative rhetoric is only fanning the flames of economic uncertainty. Threatening to unleash “fire and fury” or shut down the government does not inspire market confidence.
“The decline in the dollar is at least partly attributable to growing concerns about political risk for the US, with the failure of healthcare legislation, the possibility of a budget standoff and, most recently, further political uncertainty following the Charlottesville events,” explained William Cline, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
On the other side of the coin is the bullish performance of the euro, which is exacerbating the dollar’s decline. “The larger move against the euro reflects considerable improvement in political risk in the eurozone, given the outcome of the French elections and the easing of concerns about Italian banks, as well as an improved growth outlook in Europe,” Cline added.
However, the dollar has also fallen by more than seven percent this year against the yen, by 14 percent against the Mexican peso, and by 13 percent against the Swedish krona. Independent of the euro, a clear trend is emerging whereby value is moving away from the dollar.
Time to worry
In a typically bullish interview with The Wall Street Journal in April, Trump remarked: “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me.”
Putting aside any assessment of his popularity levels, Trump is right to suggest that a strong currency is not necessarily beneficial to a country’s economy.
In the short term, for example, a weaker dollar means that US goods and services become more attractive to foreign markets, which could provide a boost to the country’s manufacturing industry and other major exporters.
“An easing in the dollar can help keep the US trade deficit from widening as much as it would have at its previous exchange rate,” explained Cline. “In trade-weighted terms and adjusting for inflation, the real dollar declined about seven percent from December to August. That would curb the trade deficit by about 1.2 percent of GDP, from where it otherwise would have reached in the medium term. That is a plus for growth.”
There will be concerns, however, that the fall in value is not simply the natural ebb and flow of the currency market, but an indication that the dollar is losing its status as the world’s chosen safe-haven currency. Cline, however, believes that talk of a US dollar collapse is premature.
“The dollar is still about 10 percent stronger than its average level between 2007 and mid-2014, when it started to rise in the face of falling oil prices,” he explained. “It is not yet time to worry about the dollar being too weak.”
And yet, some analysts are worried. Further uncertainty is scheduled for February next year, when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen steps down, and ongoing international tensions show little sign of abating.
Could continual decline indicate a long-term lack of confidence in the dollar? History would suggest not – the dollar has been in worse positions than this and recovered – but with a political outsider like Donald Trump in office, maybe history doesn’t quite count for as much as it used to.
In many ways, things simply couldn’t be going worse for Samsung. The mighty electronics empire had only just recovered from its now-infamous exploding phone debacle when it became embroiled in a political corruption scandal, culminating in the arrest of its de facto leader, Lee Jae-yong. And yet, as the Samsung crown prince languishes in jail, the company’s profits are soaring.
Incredibly, Samsung reported record-breaking quarterly profits for the three months leading up to June. Led by its seemingly unstoppable flagship division Samsung Electronics, the South Korean giant made KRW 14trn ($12bn) in profits over the past quarter, securing the brand’s position as the most profitable non-financial company in the world.
Indeed, it is hard to overstate just how successful the electronics behemoth has become: its profits are now greater than the combined operating profits of Facebook, Amazon, Google and Netflix; a figure estimated at $11.15bn. Even with its leadership now in tatters, the sprawling conglomerate shows no signs of slipping from the top of the smartphone market.
The family business
With booming memory chip sales at home and overseas, Samsung now appears to be consolidating its dominant position in South Korea, unshaken by the nation’s recent political upheaval.
“Samsung’s annual revenue is equal to more than 20 percent of the nation’s GDP, so they are in a sense the epitome of ‘too big to fail’,” said David Volodzko, National Editor of the Korea JoongAng Daily, the sister paper of The New York Times in South Korea. “There’s not enough evidence to suggest that this scandal will deal any lasting damage to the firm.”
However, despite starting the year strongly, Samsung faces some difficult leadership questions over the course of 2017. On May 11, 2014, the Chairman of Samsung Group, Lee Kun-hee, was hospitalised after suffering a heart attack. Since this date, there have been no confirmed sightings of or updates on South Korea’s richest man, and rumours of his death have continued to circulate online.
Despite some initial scepticism over Lee Jae-yong’s business experience, the heir has successfully overseen Samsung’s transformation into the world’s biggest smartphone maker
According to Samsung, Lee Kun-hee has spent the last three years recovering from the heart attack in a Gangnam hospital, and earlier this year the company marked 1,000 days without its leader. In the wake of Lee Kun-hee’s sudden absence, the leader’s son, Lee Jae-yong, stepped in to fill the leadership vacuum at the company.
Despite some initial scepticism over Lee Jae-yong’s business experience, the heir apparent has successfully overseen Samsung’s transformation into the world’s biggest smartphone maker, sending profits skyward and knocking close rival Apple from the top spot in the industry.
The de facto leader also managed to somewhat effectively contain the fallout of Samsung’s exploding phone crisis, preventing the incident from bubbling over into a full-scale brand image catastrophe with a swift and carefully managed global recall of the device.
However, just as the Samsung heir settled into the role at the top of the conglomerate, he found himself formally indicted on charges of embezzlement and bribery. His arrest and subsequent jailing means that Samsung is once again without a leader, with his impending sentencing threatening to scupper succession plans at the firm.
Leadership transitions can be immensely difficult, even for the most stable firms. Ever since its founding in 1938, top positions at the South Korean giant have been held by members of the Lee family, with second and third-generation Lees running more than 55 Samsung subsidiary companies.
With the company now considering an executive reshuffle, however, it may well be time to diversify from this family focus and bring some new blood to Samsung.
A show of strength
With its heir apparent behind bars, Samsung is determined not to let its leadership woes interfere with business. In July, the conglomerate announced it would be investing $18bn in South Korea, in a plan that promises to create almost half a million jobs. The announcement followed repeated calls from newly elected South Korean President Moon Jae-in for leading businesses to invest more domestically, as part of a job creation drive.
“Moon Jae-in has spoken about wanting to break up the nation’s chaebol [family-run businesses] and generally has an image of being tough on corruption,” said Volodzko. “Even with this pressure, the chances are good that Samsung will emerge bruised, but unbroken.”
At this crucial time, this hefty domestic investment may also go some way in alleviating shareholder fears that major business decisions might be delayed in Lee Jae-yong’s absence. By pressing ahead with future expansion, the conglomerate is sending a clear message to sceptics: the Samsung vision will not be disrupted.
Lee Jae-yong was jailed for five years upon the conclusion of his trial in August, but it now appears that the verdict matters very little. Even with its family patriarch permanently hospitalised and his only male heir behind bars, Samsung continues to soar. If it can surmount even these obstacles to achieve record profits, then the Samsung empire can surely withstand any blow.
Despite the current economic slowdown, upbeat forecasts for the near future have kept optimism up in Chile. In November, the country will choose a new president following the second and final term of President Michelle Bachelet of the Socialist Party.
The next administration will have to face a decelerated economy after years of sustained growth, due to a fall in the price of raw materials, among other reasons. That said, forecasts are on its side: with the centre-right candidate and former president Sebastian Piñera leading the polls, the market expects a significant shift to take place.
Although Chile’s performance is still dependent on copper prices, over the years the country has become a model economy in the region with an increasingly important role. In this context, the IPSA, an equity index representing the country’s 40 most relevant companies at the Santiago Stock Exchange, has reflected the optimism with strong performance, recently reaching an all-time high.
In this context, World Finance spoke to José Ignacio Zamorano, Head of Investment Banking at BTG Pactual Chile – World Finance’s Best Investment Bank in Chile 2017 – to find out more about the IPSA’s recent successes and the challenges facing the Chilean economy.
Why has the IPSA become so attractive to foreign investors?
In Latin America, Chile has historically been one of the most attractive countries for foreign investors. It has the highest sovereign rating, a stable regulatory framework and a market-friendly environment. Although the country’s growth prospects have somewhat dwindled over the last couple of years – in line with the rest of the region – the general consensus is that the economy will improve after the coming elections.
Chile’s financial markets have always been among the most developed in the region, which is largely supported by local pension funds (AFPs). With assets under management (AUM) exceeding 70 percent of Chile’s GDP, a significant portion is invested in local equities (see Fig 1). As such, AFPs play an important role in the country’s financial markets, while the local stock exchange is underpinned on the liquidity that they provide.
In addition, several Chilean companies now have greater exposure as a result of their expansion across Latin America, which has provided international investors with access to regional growth. This trend has also enabled investors to diversify local political and economic risk through investing in a Chilean listed vehicle. Today, approximately 40 percent of the revenue of companies listed in Chile comes from abroad.
What has driven the IPSA rally?
The IPSA has rallied 23 percent in the past year, and reached an all-time high in August. This impressive performance can be explained by better results and prospects for listed companies, together with increased interest from foreign investors and local institutional investors. For example, AFPs have increased their AUM in local equities by $3.4bn over the past 12 months.
Moreover, there has been a lack of recent large equity offerings. For example, in the last three years, more than $9bn has been withdrawn from the market through tender offers – mostly by foreign investors acquiring companies from local owners through mergers and acquisitions (M&As).
Meanwhile, only $5bn has been offered via new equity issuances, such as IPOs and follow-ons. This has forced financial investors wishing to unload their cash positions to buy in secondary markets, which explains the success of block trades this year. As companies continue to post good results, we expect a rise in primary offerings, such as capital increases, in the coming years.
If a pro-market government is elected, the Chilean economy is expected to return to the sustained growth it showed a few years ago
To some degree, the following three macroeconomic effects may also explain the recent IPSA rally. The first is a calm market, which reached historic VIX index lows this year after two high-volatility events: Brexit and US elections in 2016. Low interest rates worldwide are the second. Finally, an increase in the weight of Latin America in emerging markets indices, which has brought fund flows to those markets as investors look for higher yields, is the third.
What role are M&As playing in the Chilean economy?
M&A transactions have endured the recent economic slowdown. Landmark deals, such as the $26bn Enel reorganisation that we led, have confirmed foreign investors’ interest in the Chilean market, especially in certain industries such as utilities, infrastructure, retail and insurance.
In most cases, local investors have cashed out on wealth that was allocated in one single vehicle and then diversified their portfolios, either in different assets or in new ventures. Local companies have also benefited from multinational expertise and best practices, which has enabled them to become platforms on which international players can enlarge operations in the region.
What are the future prospects for consumer retail and energy in Chile?
Chilean retailers have achieved strong momentum during the second half of this year. The retail index outperformed IPSA by five percent in July, backed by an improved economic outlook and an increase in local consumer confidence in the wake of the upcoming elections.
We expect that the industry will be exposed to a better economic scenario over the next few years. There is also a market consensus to keep investing in e-commerce and logistics, as business is migrating in that direction and global specialists, such as Amazon and others, are now reaching Latin America’s biggest economies.
The Chilean energy sector has always been very dynamic, and BTG Pactual in particular has been very active in in this industry. To name just a few M&A examples in the last couple of years, there was the Transchile sale to Ferrovial, Actis’ acquisition of SunEdison, the sale of FenixPower to Colbún, and the acquisition of Guacolda by GIP.
In our experience, we have seen certain trends determining activity in the sector. The first is a fall in consumption due to the recent economic slowdown that has affected electricity demand growth rates. Second, there has been a limited number of new base-load plants, something that is related to the lack of social, political and environmental support, as well as economic incentives for large-scale projects.
Also, non-conventional renewable energy is now dominating growth, with significant projects for solar and wind energy in the pipeline. However, intermittency needs to be managed with battery energy storage systems and network improvements, in addition to being complemented with standard base-load capacity.
Despite recent tenders being awarded at very low prices, higher prices are expected in the future, in line with reasonable returns, which will further incentivise the development of new hydro and gas-fired power plants. Another trend is growing competition – just four players used to comprise more than 90 percent of the market, but now several new players are entering through M&As and greenfield projects.
How has Chile’s economy developed over the past few years?
After years of sustained growth, the Chilean economy is in a slowdown phase due to various factors: the fall in the price of raw materials, uncertainty and the deterioration of confidence. These have been mostly driven by the large number of reforms proposed by the current government.
All of this has led to a loss of confidence in the political system, and a lack of new initiatives and private investment. The recent decline in the country’s rating is effectively the result of continued low economic growth.
Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook is optimistic. If a pro-market government is elected in the November elections, the Chilean economy is expected to return to the sustained growth levels it showed a few years ago.
How has Chile’s role in the Latin American economic community changed and expanded?
Despite the current situation, in the last decade Chile has become one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies, and is now a model for neighbouring countries. Chile has emerged thanks to its solid institutions, while international trade has also played a major role.
Although there is still room for improvement in terms of inequality and dependence on the copper industry, nowadays Chile is one of the most attractive
economies in the region.
How has BTG Pactual Chile developed over the past few years, and what are your plans for the future?
The past few years have been especially active for us. For instance, since January 2017 we have successfully executed more than a dozen transactions in our three main products – M&As and equity and debt capital markets – involving the retail, power and utilities, shipping, airlines, infrastructure, fishing, and agriculture industries.
Among our recent M&As, we would in particular highlight the transactions of SunEdison and Actis, G&N and Carlyle, CBS and BupaSanitas, Guacolda and GIP, and TMLUC and Nutresa. We have also been very active in equity capital markets, having led five of the last eight public placements over $100m.
And in 2017 alone, we launched Chile’s only two IPOs, executed four secondary offerings and led three tender offers. Finally, in debt capital markets, we recently acted as bookrunners in Latam’s $750m and Enjoy’s $300m international bond offerings.
For the future, our focus is to continue materialising cross-border transactions and international offerings, given our competitive advantages. These include regional offices that have a deep local knowledge in Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, and a global reach through our New York and London offices.
The US has been experiencing a severe skills gap for the past 20 to 30 years, with the shift away from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based one hurting many of the country’s 50 states. According to former Senator John Engler, the US government has an obligation to reskill the US workforce. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Engler pointed out that North America is heavyweight in the aggregated global economy, meaning any changes in the US economy have a profound impact on the state of the global economic system.
While there are mounting issues for multilateral trade agreements, such as NAFTA, at present, Engler stated that such agreements have helped the US and its trade partners compete in the international economy. He indicated that President Trump is somewhat misdirected in his approach to “bringing back jobs” to the US, suggesting that the US has somewhat forgotten what made it the biggest economy in the world – its skilled workforce.
Engel’s argument is based on the US’ shift away from a manufacturing-based economy to a more service-based one, which demands a different type of skilled worker. “You can get a job climbing a pole being a lineman and you can start earning a salary from $70,000,” Engler said. “By getting some training experience you can achieve a $100,000 income. This all without a college degree, with the huge levels of debt incurred from going to college. You can get trained and you can go straight to work.”
Supply and demand
There are many jobs of this kind in the economy, but the government is not doing enough to help 20-to-30-year-olds qualify for such positions. They need more assistance through training programmes or further education.
A report by the National Federation of Independent Business found that, as of Q1 2017, 45 percent of small businesses were unable to find suitably qualified applicants to fill openings. CEOs across the US report shortages of workers for blue-collar jobs. Nurses, construction workers, truck drivers, oilfield workers and automotive technicians are just some of the roles that are lacking qualified applicants.
According to a survey conducted by CareerBuilder, 67 percent of employers are concerned by the current skills gap. 55 percent of employers state that they have seen a negative impact on their businesses due to extended job vacancies, with it damaging productivity revenues. A 2016 Harris Poll Survey showed that 20 percent of workers say their professional skills are not up to date. The survey further highlighted that 57 percent of workers want to learn a new skillset to land a better-paying, more fulfilling job, but half of them said they couldn’t afford to do so.
CEOs across the US report shortages of workers for blue-collar jobs
Reskilling the workforce
Gretchen Whitmer, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, has set her sights on revitalising the prospects of workers in Michigan. Instead of following the protectionist model laid out by various populists, Whitmer is focusing a large part of her campaign on channelling talent towards vocational jobs. “Everyone shouldn’t have to go to college. It’s not for everybody. So many people are incurring massive amounts of debt, where they can’t even buy a house or start a family,” she said.
While Trump has been a strong advocate of the protection of US jobs in the manufacturing sector, Whitmer is looking to the future, broadening her vision for the region and searching for ways to make Michigan a green energy manufacturing hub of the Midwest. The first challenge Whitmer faces is the significant skills gap in the Midwest. Michigan must fill 15,000 jobs in skilled trades that don’t require a college degree.
Governor of Michigan, Rick Snyder, created the 21st Century Education Commission to address the state’s skills gap. Included in the commission is a plan to link community colleges with local employers to encourage better workforce training. Whitmer, however, thinks that the budget should prioritise education by reskilling the workforce through retraining opportunities and encouraging public and private partnerships.
Across the US, governors are looking for new schemes to combat the skills gap. Earlier in the year, President Trump signed an executive order to increase the number of apprenticeships offered and improve training programmes. Many government officials have looked to Europe for inspiration; Ivanka Trump and Labour secretary Alexander Acosta have spent time in Germany studying its vocational training model. Germany has recently enjoyed a boost in both wages and employment in comparison to other developed economies.
Earlier in the year, President Trump signed an executive order to increase the number of apprenticeships offered and improve training programmes
However, not everyone agrees with the rhetoric emerging from the US regarding the failings of its workforce. Alan Manning, Professor of Economics at LSE argues: “The retraining process tends to work best for younger workers, not necessarily for the older demographics of workers.” He agrees that education is hugely important to addressing the skills gap in places like the US and UK, but added that “these are long-standing problems and have always been there”.
This reiterates the US economy’s failure to manage disruptions at the local and national level. Additionally, the US seems to be lagging behind in comparison to its international peers. Manning stated that, if you look at the UK during times of similar workforce issues, it has kept employment up among older men in comparison with the US.
The real issue is not necessarily the reskilling of the workforce, but the matter of improving workers’ incomes. The US has to do more to provide a stronger safety net for people who are out of work so they have the opportunity to reskill while looking for new jobs.
Between the practical expertise of various multinational corporations and the supervision of the US government, the country has to find a method to address the skills gap. By implementing the initiatives, policies, and programmes put forward by various institutions, the US might limit the damage caused by high youth unemployment. However, for these different approaches to have a sustained impact it is imperative that they work collaboratively.
On 30 October, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced the launch of its Industry Transformation Map (ITM). The ITM aims to achieve an annual growth of 4.3 percent in the financial sector, and to hit a productivity value of 2.4 percent. It also aims to create 3,000 new jobs, along with 1,000 more in the fintech sector annually.
Through collaboration with financial institutions, the MAS will create common utilities for services including electronic payments. Increased investment into R&D solutions, such as distributed ledger technology for inter-bank payments and trade finance, is also on the cards.
“Prospects for the financial sector are good. Asia’s growth continues to be strong, driven by a growing middle class, rapid urbanisation and the expansion of Asian enterprises, which will generate demand for financing and risk management solutions,” MAS board member Ong Ye Kung said at the launch of the ITM.
These new developments highlight the country’s move to a greater presence in the global financial system
“However, the sector is going through a period of significant change. With technology transforming the way financial services are produced, delivered and consumed, it is critical that Singapore’s financial sector also transforms to stay relevant and competitive.”
Furthermore, the MAS is looking to expand cross-border cooperation with other fintech centres. This process will harness new technologies and simplify regulatory compliance for financial institutions.
As the financial sector accounts for about 13 percent of Singapore’s GDP, these new developments highlight the country’s move to a greater presence in the global financial system.
The ITM also emphasises Asia’s growing influence as a financial trading bloc and the shift in financial power from the low-growth economies of the West to the fast-growing economies in the East.
Argentina’s electoral season opened with a landslide win by Cambiemos in the August 13 primaries. The ruling coalition amassed large wins in the cities of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Mendoza.
Moreover, the government saw promising results in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, which put it at the gates of becoming the first administration since 1985 to carry the country’s five largest districts in one election.
Puente believes the recent election should be assessed with two questions in mind: has the result increased the government’s ability to move ahead with its reforms agenda and macro rebalancing plan?
And does the result signal a lower chance of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner leading a populist alternative in the 2019 election? In our view, the government’s comfortable win shows that the answer is ‘yes’ – an answer that will ease recent tensions in the foreign exchange market.
Crisis averted
In summer 2017, when polls suggested a very tight election in the Buenos Aires province, markets were concerned that Kirchner might command a lead that would again put her at the head of Peronism.
In that scenario, not only would she have been well-positioned to put her hat into the 2019 presidential race, but she would also have had effective veto power over every reform that the government proposed.
Upon the June announcement that Kirchner would seek a Senate seat in the province of Buenos Aires, political uncertainty moved to the centre of the scene, shifting the focus away from incipient economic activity recovery and disinflation tactics.
The Argentine peso weakened almost nine percent in less than a month, amplifying depreciation expectations and forcing the central bank into tightening monetary policy further. Ultimately, Cambiemos’ landslide win defused the risks of this volatile scenario.
While we predicted that the market would rally with a tight Cambiemos win, the result of the primaries is even more encouraging than we expected. The primary results show that Kirchner’s Peronist party is going through a deep crisis: most of the key figures of Peronism have suffered large defeats on their home turfs, and the party is heading for back-to-back losses for the first time in its history.
The Argentine Government needs to tackle the large fiscal deficit, one of the world’s highest inflation rates, and currency overvaluation
In August, Kirchner garnered fewer votes than Peronism’s meagre 2015 performance in Buenos Aires.
Former Chief of the Cabinet of Ministers Sergio Massa was backed by just 15 percent of the electorate in Buenos Aires, and less than seven percent in national terms.
Juan Schiaretti, the popular Governor of Córdoba, lost by a historical margin, while former president Adolfo Rodríguez Saá suffered his first defeat in more than 30 years. With Peronism devoid of a clear leader and most governors willing to strike a deal with the government, Cambiemos has a unique opportunity to push ahead with its reforms.
The peso strengthens
In the short run, these changes have been very positive for the peso, which has strengthened significantly as local currency assets boomed in reaction to the lower risk of a populist revival.
In our view, hawkish local rates will continue to attract US dollar inflows as non-residents increase their investments in Argentina and local investors distance themselves from US dollar assets.
We favour linkers that offer peso discounts and fixed rate domestic bonds, such as the 2021, 2023 and 2026 ARGTES, to capture attractive capital gains.
Likewise, we support short-term central bank debt and monetary-policy-linked floaters due to their attractive carry in a lower volatility scenario for the foreign exchange.
We would favour positions in the long-term, high-convexity century bond. We also find euro and US dollar discounts attractive.
In the medium term, we have a constructive view of Argentine risk in the context of the recent primary win, which gave the government the political capital and mandate it needed to strengthen the changes to Argentina’s macroeconomic framework.
Now that the primaries have passed, Argentina needs to focus on rebalancing its economy. The three main problems that the government needs to tackle during its remaining term are the large fiscal deficit, one of the world’s highest inflation rates, and currency overvaluation.
Results are starting to appear on the inflation front, though a lot of work remains to be done. The fiscal front should be next.
In the first two years of the administration, savings from lower subsidies were spent elsewhere, keeping fiscal stimulus high in order to protect the lower classes and ensure success in this year’s election. With its political position strengthened, we believe that the government is committed to reining in public finances.