JPMorgan Q1 profits up 67%

JPMorgan Chase, the second largest bank by assets in the US, beat forecasts from Wall Street analysts by reporting a 67 percent rise in Q1 profits, bringing figures to $5.56bn compared with $3.33bn in the same period last year.

The jump in results was attributed to an increased performance from the credit card group and its investment banking and trading businesses, which helped offset losses from the retail bank.

Net revenue fell 8.5 percent year-on-year to $25.79bn from $28.2bn and was blamed on lower income from mortgage fees and a decrease in securities gains.

Jamie Dimon, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan, said: “The firm’s results reflected a strong quarter across the investment bank and solid performance from card services, commercial banking, treasury & securities services, and asset management. However, this performance was more than offset by the extraordinarily high losses we still are bearing on mortgage-related issues. Unfortunately, these losses will continue for a while.”

BP Rosneft deal grows uncertain

The Russian half of the Russian-British TNK-BP joint venture is threatening to file a law suit for up to $10m against its parent company BP, saying BP breached its shareholder agreement for going straight to state oil company OAO Rosneft rather than through TNK-BP, sources said.

Rosneft and BP signed a share swap deal in January which agreed the joint development of the Russian Arctic shelf and entitled Rosneft to 5 percent in BP in exchange for 9 percent of its own shares. The deal however was blocked by AAR, the company representing the interests of four billionaires in TNK-BP, because it felt the contract with Rosneft had broken their own agreement.

TNK-BP subsequently claims losses because of BP’s actions, saying it has lost an opportunity to explore within the Russsian Arctic and will therefore be seeking damages.

The $18bn deal between BP and Rosneft was left in limbo however, after its key supporter Igor Sechin stepped down as Rosneft’s chairman on Monday. Sechin, who is also the deputy prime minister of Russia, resigned from his position after President Dmitry Medvedev ordered the removal of ministers from the board of state companies.

COO of Renault to step down over espionage claim

The COO of Renault, Patrick Pélata, resigned on Tuesday following an internal and external audit which showed ‘a chain of failures’ in the manner the car manufacturer handled a scandal which alleged industrial espionage by its employees and led to three unjust dismissals.

The audit especially blamed ‘the supervision and control of activities of management of the company’s security department’.

It is not yet clear when Pélata will leave the company or who is to replace him.

The company, which is 15 percent government owned, confessed last month it was deceived into wrongfully dismissing three executives following an erroneous company investigation which concluded they had received payments from Chinese companies through overseas accounts.

Japan compares Fukushima severity to Chernobyl
The Japanese government has increased the severity of the catastrophe at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to level seven, the maximum level on the International Nuclear Event Scale, said the Japanese nuclear regulatory agency.

The new reassessment of the level places Fukushima on a par with the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, while rises in radiation and several earthquake aftershocks have prompted the Japanese government to broaden the evacuation area, the agency said.

The move to raise the level up two notches from five followed an admission that the March 11 earthquake and subsequent Tsunami which caused severe damage to the power plant will bring about long-term environmental damage and serious health consequences.

“In relation to the volume of radioactive materials released, our estimate shows it is about 10 percent of what was released by Chornobyl,” an agency spokesman said.

UK and Dutch to sue Iceland for Icesave money

The Netherlands and Britain are planning to take Iceland to court for refusing to repay money paid to Icesave depositors following the collapse of the country’s banking system in 2008, said chief secretary of the treasury, Danny Alexander.

Icelandic voters have rejected the government backed deal to pay back to Britain and the Netherlands $5.8bn worth of losses, the government of Iceland said in a statement. This is the second time the country voted in a referendum against the payment of the money.

The referendum, which had a voter turnout of around 75 percent, indicated 59.7 percent of voters said no to the “Icesave deal”, while 40.1 percent said yes, according to the National Electorate Commission.

“The vote has split the country in two. We must do all we can to prevent economic and political chaos as a result of the outcome,” said Johanna Sigurdadottir, the prime minister of Iceland.

Precious metals reach record high in 31 years

Gold futures traded at a new record high on Friday and silver hit $40.04 an ounce for the first time since 1980 as concerns about the dollar weakening draws investors towards precious metals.

Gold for June delivery was up $8.60 and hit a trading high of $1.468.30

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF said on Thursday its holdings rose to 1.217.209 tonnes, their peak since mid-March.

The ishares Silver trust, the largest silver-backed ETF noted its holdings hit another record at 11.192.80 tonnes on Thursday.

Investors will be watching government spending developments in the US closely to see whether there could be a last minute deal between President Barack Obama and US legislators as the prospect of a government shutdown would be considered positive for precious metals.

The climb in gold price within the Euro region was limited however. Analysts believe the rates raised by the ECB on Thursday, for the first time since 2008, were generally expected and were previously factored into the price of gold.

Portugal asks for EU bailout

Portugal’s caretaker government under José Sócrates last night requested an EU bailout, making Portugal the third EU member, after Ireland and Greece, to seek financial assistance.
 
The move comes after the country’s long term government bond rating was downgraded by Moody’s on Tuesday by a notch from A3 to BAA1 and the credit agency said Portugal would have to look for external help to resolve its debt crisis.
 
The decision to seek a bailout will end several months of continual pressure to resolve its increasingly weak public finances.
 
Commenting on the bailout, Sócrates addressed the nation late on Wednesday, saying: “We must all assume our responsibility. The Portuguese people know how to work in the national interest when it’s needed and this is why, in the national interest,  I tell the Portuguese people that it’s time to take that step, so that we can have the best resources for the Portuguese people and for Portugal.”

Investors are now watching to see if Spain could be next on the list but Spain’s economy minister Elena Salgado ruled out contagion.

Commerzbank to repay 14.3bn euro aid by June

Commerzbank, Germany’s second largest lender said on Wednesday it plans to repay 14.3bn euro in state aid by June through the sale of new shares and the use of excess capital.
 
The bank said it is to pay back €14.3bn of the €16.2bn in “silent participation”, a type of non-voting capital received by the German government at the height of the economic crisis. 
 
A total of €8.25bn is to be raised directly from capital markets and €2.75bn of the silent participation are to be converted into shares to redeem around €11bn of the government’s capital injection.
 
A further €3.27bn the bank said will be paid from surplus regulatory capital by the end of June, with the remainder to be paid back at the latest by 2014.
 
Commenting on the decision to repay the state aid, CEO Martin Blessing said: “We have returned to profitability one year earlier than expected and are keeping the promise to repay the temporary support of the government as soon as possible.”

Portugal moves closer to bailout

Portugal’s long term government bond rating has been downgraded by Moody’s by a notch from A3 to BAA1, the credit agency said.
 
Moody’s cautioned that it expects Portugal to have to look for external help to resolve its debt crisis.
 
In a statement the agency said: “The limited migration of the rating to BAA1 in today’s action reflects Moody’s assessment that assistance would be provided by the other members of the Euro zone if Portugal needs financing on an expedited basis before it can obtain funds from the European Financial Stability Facility.”
 
The action, which follows comparable ratings by Fitch and S&P, moves the country closer to junk grade status and places it on review for further downgrades.
 
Moody’s said its decision to downgrade “ was driven primarily by increased political, budgetary and economic uncertainty, which increase the risk that the government will be unable to achieve the ambitious deficit reduction targets set out in the update of its stability and growth programme for 2011-2014 which put its finances on a sustainable trajectory.”

Vodafone to earn €7.95bn from SFR sale

Vodafone shares opened 2 percent higher this morning after the company announced it has agreed to sell its entire 44 percent stake in French mobile phone group SFR to Vivendi for a cash consideration of €7.75bn.

The agreement includes a final dividend worth €200 which Vodafone will receive on completion of the transaction. In addition, Vodafone and SFR will enter into a Partner Market agreement which will maintain their commercial co-operation.

Following the deal’s completion in June, Vivendi will own 100 percent of SFR. Vodafone said it will continue its affiliation by entering into a partner market agreement with SFR to maintain its commercial co-operation, allowing its customers continued use of its signal when in France.

The company moreover announced that £4bn of the sale’s net profits would be handed back to shareholders through a share buy-back, with the remainder used to pay down debt. Vodafone’s holding in SFR contributed £573m last year to its operating profits.

Vodafone’s CEO Vittorio Colao said: “By returning £4bn to our shareholders, we are increasing our current buy-back programme to £6.8bn in total, equivalent to over 7 percent of Vodafone’s current market capitalisation.”

“Our board remains committed to realising maximum value from our non-controlled assets.  The sale of our stake in SFR, at an attractive multiple, represents a significant further step in the execution of this strategy”, he added.

Xstrata agrees record coal price with Japan

Xstrata, one of the world’s biggest coal exporters, has come to an agreement from today to sell Australian thermal coal to Hiroshima-based Chucogu Electric Power for one year at $129.80 a tonne it was announced.

The new benchmark price contracted per tonne, which is around 30 percent up from the previous year, is an all time high for thermal coal under annual contracts and exceeds the previous 2008 record of $125.

The price for thermal coal supply in 2011 is 13 percent higher than the earlier settlement of $115 a tonne between Xstrata and Japanese utilities, and surpasses the current spot value for Australian coal of $123.20.

Original negotiations led by Tohoku Electric Power came to a halt after it sustained damage to its power plants following the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami last month.

Analysts speculate this could be an indication that the coal market will tighten over the next few months as Japan compensates for a reduced nuclear power output by burning more coal.

It remains unclear as yet how high the volume will be under the contract.

Japan still stationary

Japan’s manufacturing activity dropped to a two-year low in March and posted its sharpest decline since records began in October 2001, a survey showed today.

The disruption of production operation and supply chains caused by the earthquake and tsunami devastation caused the index of purchasing managers to fall to 46.4 from 52.9 in February, according to both JMMA and Market Economics.

The survey offered a first insight into quantitative assessments of the damage created by the tsunami and earthquake on March 11, which caused a severe nuclear safety emergency and extensive power deficiency.

Cost inflation rose at the quickest rate in two and a half years and new orders fell at the steepest pace in two years, according to the release.

It was also highlighted that data was collected with great difficulty indicating just how badly the events in Japan had affected manufacturing.

According to Markit, just 67 percent of the average number of replies was received in total, only 5 percent of average replies from Tohoku, 60 percent from the Kanto region and 85 percent from car manufacturing city Chubu.

OPEC on target for $1trn revenue

OPEC, the crude oil producer’s cartel, could this year for the first time ever bank $1trn in export revenue if crude oil prices maintain their 100 bbl, the IEA said.
 
Brent Light Crude traded at 115 bbl on the ICE exchange London while the US traded above $104 yesterday.
 
Amid the MENA uprisings the company’s cartel has been one of the key beneficiaries of elevated crude oil prices.
 
Although the total number of barrels exported by Opex in 2011 would be somewhat lower than in 2008 where cartel oil revenues reached $990bn, if the average price stays at the current 100 bbl, OPEC will reach a record $1tr for 2011.
 
Analysts note that large oil producers like Saudi Arabia may use the extra income to boost public spending in an attempt to control public unrest.

Construction returns to profit

Leading plumbing and construction supplier Wolseley saw its shares climb 3.8 percent and top the key gainers on the FTSE 100 this morning following the release of its results.

The company posted half year net profit figures of $213m and said that trading across its networks improved, which will allow it to resume paying a dividend. A 15p a share interim dividend was announced by the company in spite of expressing some caution about the outlook.

On the reinstatement of the dividend and the group outlook CEO Ian Meakins said: “The dividend reflects the strength of our balance sheet and our confidence in the future trading prospects of the group. We expect to continue to grow in the second half of the year, though the comparatives will now be much more demanding.”

Despite challenging conditions the company’s revenue increased by 5 percent on a like for like basis whilst results showed that gross margin was 0.2 percent higher than last year at 27.7 percent.

The supplier also announced that it saw improved trading profit and operating leverage across all geographies with a trading profit of $440m, or 64 percent ahead of last year.

It also said that good cash generation with adjusted net debt reduced by $419.5m since July 31.

Commenting on trading Meakins added: “Construction markets have now broadly stabilised in most of our geographies, particularly the new residential and RMI segments in the USA. The overall macro-economic environment in several regions continues to be fragile and pricing competition remains intense. The impact of recent VAT increases and government spending cuts leaves the outlook in the UK more uncertain.”

Pacific shares under pressure

For the first time in three days the FTSE Asia Pacific index has fallen 0.4 percent, while the Nikkei stock average fell 0.57 percent or 57.60 to 9578.53.

Renewed worry about high levels of radiation at Japan’s nuclear power plant in Fukushima has again put Asia Pacific shares under pressure with radiation levels said to be 100,000 times higher than usual. Workers had to be evacuated late on Sunday from Reactor 2 in Fukushima following the finding that extremely elevated radioactivity levels were identified at the plant.

Stocks may have also been affected as an earthquake with a initial magnitude of 6.5 hit Miyagi Prefecture and its vicinity in north-eastern Japan this morning, Japan Meteorological Agency said. A tsunami warning was issued for the Pacific coast of the prefecture but was later lifted.

The FTSE Hong Kong index fell 0.46 percent but remained up by 0.2 percent after banks and the coal mining industry published results that showed higher than expected earnings.

Meanwhile the FTSE ALL-World equity index has suffered its first loss in eight sessions, down 0.2 percent, and so terminates the successive stint that elevated stocks back to levels observed prior to the March 11 earthquake in Japan.

Brazil’s housing carnival stokes bubble worries

Listening to Jose Carlos de Vasconcellos talk about Rio de Janeiro’s property market is like being transported back to the bubble days in the US or Europe.

The 60-year-old, who came out of retirement to join Brazil’s swelling ranks of real estate brokers, is convinced that property in the beachside city is a one-way bet despite a near doubling of house prices in just three years.

“I’m confident that the market isn’t going to slow down any time soon,” he said, taking a break from his afternoon class at a Rio school for real estate brokers.

“I don’t see any investment that’s as good as property.”

Burned property investors elsewhere may beg to differ, but Vasconcellos is typical of the blissful optimism that has infused Brazil’s real estate market at a time when property in much of the developed world remains buried in sour debts.

Rio, boasting picture-postcard scenery and plans for big investments ahead of the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games two years later, is not alone in a Brazilian housing boom that is inevitably raising fears of an asset bubble in one of the world’s hottest emerging markets.

Since early 2008 – just as the credit crunch was biting in the developed world – residential property prices in Rio have risen 99 percent with Sao Paulo not far behind on 81 percent, according to a newly launched index by Brazil’s Fipe economic research institute.

Brazil lacks an official gauge of national house prices, but there have been similar booms in other major cities, including the capital Brasilia and coastal cities in the northeast such as Recife and Salvador.

Fever
Americans and Europeans would recognise many of the symptoms of Brazil’s property fever.

Apartment prices are popular dinner table – and beach – conversation in Rio, anecdotes of humble doormen and taxi drivers becoming real estate brokers are common, as are stories of people snapping up apartments without seeing them.

Rio’s swankier addresses, such as beachside Leblon or Ipanema, are catching up with the eye-watering prices of Manhattan and central London with three-bedroom apartments changing hands for 2 million reais ($1.2m) or more. One fairly average-looking two-bed apartment in Leblon a block from the beach is currently on the market for 2.45 million reais.

Rio’s central business area has overtaken Manhattan’s Midtown district to become the world’s fourth most expensive city to rent office space, behind only Hong Kong, London and Tokyo, according to global real estate group Cushman & Wakefield.

Demand for places on training courses to become real estate brokers is booming. Just over 3,300 new brokers were registered in Rio state last year, a nearly ten-fold increase from 2005.

Just as in China, another fast-growing emerging market where some worry about a property bubble, there is plenty of evidence that the boom is well-founded.

Brazil’s economy grew a sizzling 7.5 percent last year, driven by record-high employment and confident consumers who are swelling the middle class and eager to get a foot on the housing ladder, often with the help of credit.

Millions had for long been locked out of owning property because of a lack of financing, but the mortgage market is now growing rapidly on the back of unprecedented economic stability, bringing home ownership into reach.

With a national housing deficit estimated at more than seven million units, there is plenty of pent-up demand.

“The boom is real. We don’t have any bubble and there’s not a chance of one because the percentage of GDP (of mortgage debt) is very low and the lower classes have been left out of this market for many years,” said Joao Paulo Matos, the director of Carmo e Calcada, a Rio civil construction firm.

“The World Cup and the Olympics are bringing more companies and industries here and their employees need somewhere to live, from low-level workers to executives.”

Three buildings with a total of 821 apartments that the firm launched last year sold out in the first week, one of them in a single day. Matos’ main worry is a shortage of qualified labour and materials to meet the insatiable demand for new projects, most of which are in the Barra da Tijuca beach zone west of Rio where the bulk of Olympic events will take place.

Major builders such as Rossi Residencial, Cyrela and Gafisa have been among the biggest gainers on Brazil’s stock market in the past two years, backed by a $41bn government low-income housing program.

Property cassandras
Mortgage debt in Brazil is indeed relatively low, standing at about 4 percent of GDP compared to about 15 percent in China in 2009, and much higher levels in developed economies. Brazilian banks have stricter standards too, generally lending no more than 80 percent of a property’s value.

High mortgage rates also act as a sobering force, although they are now low by Brazil’s historical standards.
Banco do Brasil, whose mortgage portfolio has more than doubled to 4 billion reais in the past year, offers 30-year home loans at a 13 percent fixed annual interest rate, almost triple the current rates in the US.

The majority of economists agree with Matos, but there are a growing number of skeptics who, on Portuguese-language sites like bolhaimobiliaria.com, vent their view that Brazil’s boom is doomed to a familiar fate.

Mortgage debt may be low, skeptics say, but the overall consumer debt burden has been growing fast when taking into account credit cards and installment payments that carry average annual interest rates of around 30 percent.

The explosion of credit in recent years has raised concern that Brazil is nurturing a new breed of subprime consumers who are not financially astute enough to manage their debts and who could default as the economy cools and interest rates rise.

That is exactly the scenario Latin America’s largest economy faces this year.

“It’s like putting someone who has never eaten in front of a banquet. They will get ill from eating too much,” said Heitor Mello Peixoto, the head of eyesonfuture, a Sao Paulo business consultancy.

Peixoto, who believes a bubble is forming, worries that banks aren’t monitoring the amount that mortgage holders are spending on maintaining their other debts.

Household debt costs stand at around 22 percent of income in Brazil, according to Sao Paulo consultancy LCA Consultores, compared to 15 percent in the US at the end of 2010.

“I received an offer of credit from my bank much higher than I could afford because they worked it out from my income, not from what I spend,” Peixoto said.

Matos has noticed that more of his apartments are being bought by investors these days, accounting for 40-45 percent of sales, rather than by families who want a permanent home.

Still, his firm plans no let up in the pace of construction this year, expecting to build 1,200 units for total sales of around 300 million reais, up from 200 million reais in 2010.

Judging by the packed, enthusiastic class of real estate brokers, there will be no shortage of help to sell them.

“(Rio) has everything – beaches, sun and business all together and there’s not much more room to build. However much prices go up, there will always be people wanting to buy,” said Carmen Garcia, a 49-year-old student.