Oil slides below $115 as Libyan rebels make gains

Oil has retreated with Brent slipping below $115 after Libyan rebels regained control of key oil towns, and unrest over the weekend was limited to minor crude exporters Syria and Yemen.

Western-led military intervention in Libya prompted speculators to raise their bets on higher prices by 6 percent in mid-March, before rebels took back a series of towns including oil terminals over the weekend.

A Libyan rebel official said Gulf oil producer Qatar had agreed to market crude oil produced from east Libyan fields no longer in Muammar Gaddafi’s control.

“These are positive developments which are negative for oil prices potentially as they have taken back some of the main oil export towns,” said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix.

Rebels have regained control of all the main oil terminals in the eastern half of Libya, namely Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Brega, Zueitina and Tobruk. On Monday, they also claimed to have taken control of Sirte, Gaddafi’s hometown.

A Reuters reporter in Sirte said there was no indication the city was under rebel control.

Jakob also pointed to the fact that the dollar was slightly stronger this morning. A stronger dollar means that commodities priced in dollars are more expensive for those using other currencies.

Output from Libyan oilfields controlled by rebels was running at about 100,000 to 130,000 bpd, which could be increased to 300,000, Ali Tarhouni, a rebel official in charge of economic, financial and oil matters, said. Libya was pumping about 1.6 million bpd before the rebellion.

But some analysts are sceptical about how quickly things will return to normal.

“Maybe there’s some hope that with rebels regaining control of most of the Eastern part of Libya and the lion’s share of Libyan production, normality may resume soon but I think it is still too early,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank. “Damage to oil facilities will prevent a sudden return to normal production levels.”

Eurozone debt
European leaders agreed a new package of anti-crisis measures at a two-day summit, but were forced to delay increasing their rescue fund and acknowledged they faced new threats from a government collapse in Portugal.

“The unrest in the Middle East is providing support, but the Portugal crisis is capping gains,” said Natalie Robertson, a commodities analyst at ANZ.

“Investors will hold onto their long position until something of significance occurs in the market. If they have fully priced in the unrest, the market is susceptible to drops due to profit taking.”

Syria deployed the army to the country’s main port in an attempt to rein in spreading protests across the country, while in Yemen talks stalled between the government and opposition.

Bahrain’s foreign minister said it was “completely untrue” that Kuwait would mediate to resolve Bahrain’s political crisis. The Gulf Cooperation Council – a regional political and economic bloc made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – had welcomed the mediation move.

Saudi Arabian King Abdullah earlier in March announced $93bn in social handouts, the second benefits package to be unveiled within a month as the kingdom attempts to contain discontent, especially from Shi’ites in the east of the country, where the world’s biggest oil reserves are located.

“That’s a reason oil is trending higher – simply OPEC is demanding a higher price for its oil, and the developments in the Middle East are exacerbating that trend by pushing some producers like Saudi Arabia to expand their expenditures at rapid rates,” Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global head of commodity research, told reporters in Calgary.

“The economy is squarely reliant on oil and becoming a lot more reliant because the unrest is forcing politicians in Saudi to start throwing money at the problem.”

UK sees slower growth, above-target inflation

Britain has cut its economic growth forecast and said inflation would remain above target this year and next in a budget that stuck to ambitious deficit-busting goals.

Seeking to support a faltering economy, finance minister George Osborne said corporation tax would be cut by two percentage points to 26 percent from April, rather than by just the one point originally planned.

A levy on banks would be increased to pay for it.

Osborne cut his growth forecasts to 1.7 percent in 2011, and 2.5 percent in 2012, citing figures from the government’s independent fiscal watchdog. In November, growth was estimated to be 2.1 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2012.

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government is attempting to eliminate most of a deficit of 10 percent of national output before the 2015 election, while also nurturing a fragile economy back to health.

Public borrowing would fall less steeply over the next four years than previously hoped but the bulk of the budget deficit would still be eliminated by 2015, Osborne said.

Policymakers at the Bank of England face a dilemma, with inflation running at more than double their two percent target while the economy is still in a fragile state and needs the support of record low interest rates.

Osborne said soaring oil prices meant inflation would remain between four and five percent this year before dropping to 2.5 percent next year.

Uncertain backdrop
The economy unexpectedly shrank at the end of last year and, although it is seen bouncing back this year, the recovery faces headwinds from constrained credit, weak household finances, high oil prices and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.

Minutes of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting showed no more policymakers had joined the camp wanting to raise interest rates, with three out of nine MPC members backing a hike and the rest wanting to hold rates at a record low of 0.5 percent.

Markets have been betting that the BoE could start to raise rates in the coming months, potentially creating a headache for a government banking on loose monetary policy to support the recovery while it slashes spending. Any delay will be a welcome relief for Osborne and his team.

The coalition – which set four-year plan to cut public spending by about a fifth last year – has little cash to spend to ease the pain for struggling businesses and families.

Labour, the unions and some economists argue the government is putting the recovery at risk by cutting the deficit so fast.

The wisdom of the government’s harsh four-year spending review has also been brought into question for other reasons.

British fighter jets are now operating in Libyan skies to quell attacks by Muammar Gaddafi on his own people, but any sustained military engagement could put Britain’s cash-strapped armed forces under strain.

True Finns chief wants to renegotiate euro fund

The leader of the populist True Finns party, vying for a key role in the next Finnish government, has said he would demand to renegotiate a package of EU measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis.

“Considering the current preliminary information… we will not accept it,” Timo Soini told Reuters in a telephone interview.

“We are not happy with socialising debts. It would again transfer more power from the national level to the European Union.”

The True Finns have been gaining popularity ahead of an April 17 general election and if they emerge as the biggest party, they could complicate European Union efforts to complete a deal to address the euro crisis.

The party has not led in any single poll but it has come second and third in some surveys and its Eurosceptical positions have clearly struck a chord with voters. The National Coalition party of Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen is ahead in the polls.

Were the True Finns to play a role in forming a government, it could make it more difficult for parliament to ratify an agreement with EU leaders on strengthening the eurozone’s financial backstops.

“Our aim is to awaken Finnish people to vote for a result that means this package will have to be renegotiated,” Soini said.

The accord would raise the lending power of the existing temporary rescue fund to €440bn by increasing guarantees from member states, including Finland, and create a permanent European Stabilisation Mechanism based partly on paid-in capital from those countries.

Asked if the True Finns might stay out of government over a plan to make the euro bailout fund parmanent, Soini said: “Yes, that may be.”

Renegotiate
Opposition parties, including the True Finns, the Social Democrats and the Leftist Alliance, have objected to providing funds or guarantees to help debt-laden countries such as Greece and Ireland.

European efforts to address the crisis have run into roadblocks before due to opposition from small member states.

Last year, a new government in Slovakia delayed the launch of the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone’s bailout fund, for several weeks before relenting under severe diplomatic pressure. It also refused to contribute to bailout loans for Greece.

The True Finns were second behind the National Coalition party, and ahead Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi’s Centre Party, in a poll published last week. Support for the True Finns has more than quadrupled since elections in 2007.

Finance Minister Katainen, the leading candidate to head the next government, has not ruled out working with any party so long as it accepts what has been agreed on the bailout. Kiviniemi made a similar point in an interview with the Financial Times.

Soini, however, is counting on voters to change that landscape. “Finnish citizens will decide on election results and who is in the government and who is not,” he said.

Cinven readying 5bn euro fundraising

European private equity firm Cinven has kicked off a fundraising drive for its fifth buyout fund, aiming to gather up to 5bn euro ($7.1bn) for new deals, people familiar with the situation said.

The buyout firm, whose investments include Pizza Express group Gondola Holdings and Dutch cable operator Ziggo, is hoping to buck tough fundraising markets in which amassing new funds can take up to two years.

Cinven targeting a first close – the point after which investors are locked in and it can start investing the capital raised – in the autumn, three people familiar with the situation said.

It has deployed about 70 percent of its fourth fund and has told investors it planned to extend the investment period of the fund by one year, allowing it to continue spending the remaining almost €2bn until mid-2012, they said.

Cinven, which declined to comment, last raised money in 2006, drawing in €6.5bn from more than 100 institutional investors to beat its initial target of €5bn.

Private equity fundraising has become more difficult in the wake of the credit crisis as cautious investors pledge less money to fewer buyout firms.

Rival buyout firm BC Partners earlier in March raised €4bn towards its latest buyout fund, beating initial expectations and providing a ray of hope to the many firms ready to follow it this year.

Private equity professionals attending the SuperReturn private equity conference in Berlin said they expected funds to be dramatically smaller than those raised at the peak of the buyouts boom.

Rising China threatens US clout in Latin America

Largely shut out by traditional international lenders, Argentina still had a place to turn last year for the billions of dollars it needed to renovate its decrepit railway system – Beijing.

The $10bn package agreed with the China Development Bank was another clear sign of China’s surging influence in Latin America, transforming the region’s economies and undermining US dominance in its traditional “backyard.”

China looms large over President Obama’s visit to Latin America as he sends a message that Washington remains relevant to a region that owes much of its robust economic health in recent years to Chinese demand.

Even in those countries where the United States is still the dominant partner, China is catching up fast.

It has lifted growth for years in commodity producers such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru with its voracious demand for raw goods such as iron ore, copper, and soy.

More recently, it has followed up with a wave of investments and state-backed loans aimed at expanding its access to commodities and tapping demand from Latin America’s growing ranks of consumers.

In doing so, China has emerged as an alternative source of funding for Latin American countries’ development in areas such as infrastructure and energy that were long dependent on World Bank or IMF loans that came with more strings attached.

“It’s a real opportunity for Latin America if they play it right and it’s a real challenge to the US,” said Kevin Gallagher, an international relations professor at Boston University who co-wrote a book on China in Latin America.

“The Chinese are a kick in the pants for the United States to articulate a little bit more of a serious relationship with the region.”

Beginnings of a backlash
China’s growing economic stake in the region may one day raise a threat to Washington’s strategic dominance too as its deep pockets bring new friends.

US ally Colombia recently announced it is in talks with China to build a railway linking its Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a possible alternative to the Panama Canal that would boost trade flows with Asia. A network of new highways under construction are due to provide direct links to five ports on Peru’s Pacific coast in another sign of how Asian economic power is reshaping regional trade patterns.

While still largely focused on metals and agricultural goods, Chinese investments have begun to spread to the broader economy. China last year became the biggest direct investor in Brazil, the region’s largest economy, with about $15bn worth of projects ranging from a $5bn steel plant to the purchase of electricity networks for about $1bn.

It has also built relations with US nemesis Venezuela, whose firebrand President Hugo Chavez said during a 2004 visit to China he had been a Maoist since childhood. China later launched a $400m communications satellite for Venezuela, reducing its dependence on US and European satellites.

The US remains the main trade and investment partner for Latin America, accounting for about 40 percent of the region’s exports in 2009 compared to China’s seven percent, according to the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

China is rising fast, though – from virtually nowhere a decade ago – and is on course to overtake the EU as the region’s number-two trade partner by 2015.

That has also carried a cost for Latin America as cheap Chinese imports flood domestic markets, provoking a growing backlash from industries like manufacturing and textiles.

Mexico suffered the impact first and more deeply, but Brazil and Argentina are increasingly feeling the pain.

Gallagher calculated that 94 percent of Latin American manufacturing exports, worth more than $260bn, were under partial or direct threat from China.

Brazil’s new government under President Dilma Rousseff has already taken a much cooler stance toward China than her predecessor, aiming to address a lopsided relationship that has seen imports of Chinese goods quintuple since 2005.

Tensions also surfaced with Argentina last year when China, in apparent anger over protectionist moves, boycotted soy oil shipments for six months.

And Chinese companies often face challenges winning local support for their projects in Peru, which critics worry will cause pollution or use scarce water resources.

China may struggle to convert growing economic clout into political influence in Latin America, says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

“We may be entering a new phase now in the Chinese relationship with South America, where there are ongoing concerns about Chinese policies and practices and whether Latin America is getting the most favourable terms out of that relationship,” he said.

“I think that’s going to be the case for the next couple of years, which opens it up again to the United States.”

Global supply chain rattled by Japan quake, tsunami

Global companies from semiconductor makers to shipbuilders faced disruptions to operations after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan destroyed vital infrastructure and knocked out factories supplying everything from high-tech components to steel.

Thousands of people have been killed and millions have been left without water, electricity, homes or heat after the 8.9 magnitude quake triggered a massive tsunami which tore across a wide swathe of coastline north of Tokyo.

The earthquake has forced many firms to suspend production and shares in some of Japan’s biggest companies have tumbled, with Toyota Corp and Sony Corp falling eight percent and nine percent, respectively.

Plant closures and production outages from Japan’s host of high-tech companies were among the biggest threats to the global supply chain, analysts said.

“Japan remains critical to the global tech food chain,” analysts at CLSA said in a report. “Beyond damage to facilities, supply chain disruptions driven by road-port-power outages are key factors to watch,” CLSA said, estimating a fifth of all global technology products are made in Japan.

Korean shipbuilders and US solar power companies were among other companies facing the threat of disruptions to supply, but with initial damage assessments still being made, companies and analysts said it was too early to accurately gauge how long disruptions might last.

Rolling power blackouts are likely to affect Tokyo and surrounding areas, adding to the existing challenge of inspecting and repairing north Japan plants amid continuing aftershocks and the threat of major radiation leaks from damaged nuclear power plants.

Korean companies hit
Japanese ports handling as much as seven percent of the country’s industrial output sustained major damage from the earthquake, with most seen out of operation for months.

Companies in neighbouring South Korea, which depend heavily on Japan supplies such as LCD glass, chip equipment, silicon wafers and other products to produce semiconductors, were some of the most affected.

Hynix Semiconductor , the world’s number two memory chipmaker and a rival of Japan’s quake-hit Toshiba Corp and Elpida Memory , said it was concerned the quake may weaken consumer demand further and disrupt supplies of chip components.

“It could give a boost to battered chip prices but that’s a short-term impact from disrupted supplies by Japanese companies,” said Kim Min-chul, chief financial officer at Hynix. “Longer-term we are more concerned about the quake reducing overall consumer demand and disrupting supplies of chip components and equipment, which could interrupt our production as well.”

Hynix shares surged almost nine percent on expectations of a short-term boost to chip prices and reduced competition, while shares in Toshiba, a conglomerate whose products include semiconductors and nuclear reactors, dived 16 percent.

Toshiba, which supplies more than a third of the NAND memory chips used worldwide in devices such as Apple’s hot-selling iPad, said it was starting the process of restarting a chip factory in Iwate, northern Japan.

Shares of Shin-Etsu fell 6.7 percent in Tokyo, while rival silicon wafter makers Sumco Corp ended flat in a Tokyo market that closed down 6.2 percent.

Spot prices for DRAM chips, mostly used PC, had started rising in China, chip price tracker DRAMExChange said.

“Especially for PC and system manufactures, they need to be more proactive in DRAM inventory for the upcoming peak season,” it said in a note.

Nokia said it was investigating the impact on supplies.

About 12 percent of components used by Nokia were sourced in Japanese yen but the amount of Japanese components was likely larger in its phones as Nokia has recently renegotiated its supplier contracts in Japan to cut risks from swings in the value of the yen.

“Until we have concrete information to share, it would be inappropriate to speculate on the possible impact to Nokia,” a spokesman said.

Steel, solar
Companies reliant on Japanese steel such as South Korean shipbuilders were also expected to face supply constraints or higher prices due to disruptions caused by the quake and its aftermath.

South Korea houses the world’s top three shipbuilders – Hyundai Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine and Samsung Heavy Industries.

“The earthquake has reportedly affected around 20 percent of the Japanese steel production capacity,” said Kim Hyun-tae, an analyst at Hyundai Securities in Seoul. “It will disrupt production in Japan, one of the major steel producers exporting 40 percent of its output. In contrast, steel demand will rise for damage restoration.”

Nippon Steel Corp , the world’s number four steelmaker, said it resumed shipments from all its steel plants except its Kaimishi facility in northern Japan. Rival JFE Holdings said it was forced to stop shipments at one plant near Tokyo due to a power outage.

JFE Steel Corp , the world’s number five steelmaker, halted production at a plant near Tokyo and number four ranked Nippon Steel suspended operations at two small plants.

“If there is a 10 percent rise in steel plates, it can result in a 1.5 percent fall in the operating profit margin for shipbuilders,” said SK Securities analyst Lee Ji-hoon, adding roughly 15 percent of steel plate supplies for Korean shipbuilders come from Japan.

Korean steel maker POSCO was expected to benefit from tighter supplies and pressure on prices. Its shares rose almost nine percent in Seoul.

The earthquake also raised risks of lower production from Japanese manufacturers of polysilicon and wafers – materials found in solar panels that convert sunlight into electricity.

Credit Suisse expects supply problems at solar wafer maker M. Setek Co, a unit of AU Optronics, whose plant is situated near Sendai town, close to the epicenter of the quake.

US solar panel maker SunPower Corp could be vulnerable to wafer supply disruption as it relies on M. Setek for up to 20 percent of its supplies or about 200 megawatts, Credit Suisse said.

An AU spokesman said initial assessment at the M. Setek plant showed no major damage but it was unclear when production would resume.

Taiwan’s TSMC , the world’s largest contract maker of semiconductors, said there was no immediate threat to supplies.

“For raw materials like raw wafers, gases and chemicals and spare parts, we have enough inventories to keep things running for at least 30 days,” said TSMC spokesman Michael Kramer.

Other high tech producers including Taiwanese smartphone make HTC said operations and components supply had not been affected but they would be talking to alternative suppliers and monitoring the situation in Japan.

Huge response to Irish Nationwide debt buyback

Nationalised lender Irish Nationwide has had a near 100 percent take-up for its coercive buyback of £146.2m ($236m) of subordinated debt at an 80 percent discount.

The lender, being wound down as part of an EU/IMF bailout, said investors holding £125.7m of bonds due 2016 and £20.5m of notes due 2018 had agreed to the buyback by an early deadline of March 8.

Irish Nationwide had said the offer applied to £126m of bonds due 2015 and £20.6m due 2018.

The company has extended the deadline for its early tender payment to March 18 due to the strong response.

Bondholders who do not accept the offer by March 18 will be offered 0.001 percent of the bonds’ face value.

Irish banks have been imposing losses on junior bondholders as part of government efforts to claw back some of the cost of bailing out the banks after years of reckless property lending.

Ireland’s banking crisis forced the government to seek emergency assistance from the EU and the IMF and the eventual cost of purging the sector of bad debts and recapitalising it could top an eye-watering €80bn, over half of Ireland’s annual economic output.

Little Britain stands back as eurozone advances

Do what you like. Just count us out.

That, in essence, is the message that Britain is sending its European partners as the 17 countries that share the euro move towards closer economic integration.

In a departure from half a century of British diplomacy, PM Cameron has adopted a strategy of benign disengagement from the core project of the EU to appease the numerous eurosceptics in his Conservative party.

Rather than seeking like his predecessors to shape and restrain European integration, he is watching from the sidelines as an inner circle of eurozone states launch separate annual summits and move forward with coordinating economic policy.

Cameron has said Britain has a vital interest in the success of the eurozone, its biggest trade partner, and he chose pragmatically to participate in an EU/IMF-led bailout of Ireland in December because of strong British economic ties there.

“There is a bit of apprehension about being left too much on the sidelines,” said Iain Begg, professor of European affairs at the London School of Economics, who said Cameron was trying to be as constructive as Conservative Eurosceptics would permit.

But he is now effectively pulling up the drawbridge with the continent by enacting a “United Kingdom Parliamentary Sovereignty Bill” that would make any further transfer of power from London to Brussels subject to a national referendum.

Britain opted out of the single currency when the Maastricht Treaty on monetary union was negotiated in 1991, but Labour governments between 1997 and 2009 were committed to joining it, in theory at least, if the economic conditions were right even though former finance minister Gordon Brown’s opposition rendered such a move impossible.

However, Cameron has pledged that Britain will never join the euro as long as the Conservatives are in power.

His other two main priorities – more traditionally British – are to curb the common EU budget while preserving Britain’s rebate, and to protect the City of London financial centre from intrusive European regulation.

His approach is driven mainly by the need to preserve a fragile ceasefire both among Conservatives and with their pro-European Liberal Democrat governing coalition partners.

The coalition pact to neither enter into closer European integration nor, as Conservative Eurosceptics had sought, withdraw from existing EU policies in areas such as employment was workable only as long as the EU stood still.

But the debt crisis is forcing the eurozone to move ahead rapidly with stricter fiscal discipline, prior scrutiny of national budgets, a permanent rescue fund and broader economic policy coordination – all anathema to British sovereignists.

Scramble for influence
Cameron’s “little Britain” policy is already having consequences for both Britain and Europe.

For one thing, it has left long-time British allies in northern and eastern Europe to fend for themselves.

Sweden and Denmark, which like Britain chose not to join the single currency, are now scrambling to strengthen links with the eurozone for fear of being left out of economic integration.

Swedish Prime Minister Frederik Reinfeldt underlined his discomfort at the emerging two-speed Europe in an interview with reporters. “We should not have that kind of division inside the European Union for the future,” he said, bristling at separate eurozone summits.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has said Denmark may soon need to re-evaluate its decision to stay out of the euro as members of the currency intensify economic cooperation.

“Denmark cannot tolerate that economic policy is made in a room where Denmark cannot be present because of its euro opt-out,” said Rasmussen.

In one emblematic incident, British finance minister George Osborne was made to wait for hours in a corridor in Brussels last May while eurozone finance ministers nailed down an agreement on a financial rescue mechanism.

“He was not a very happy man,” a senior EU official said.

Poland and other central European states saw Britain as their pro-enlargement, pro-market best friend when they joined the EU in 2004 but they are now racing to build closer ties with Germany and France to avoid being stuck in Europe’s slow lane.

The Poles are furious because Britain’s drive to shrink the EU budget would hit regional development funds earmarked for Warsaw and the other newcomers.

Diplomats and analysts say Britain’s effective withdrawal from the economic and fiscal policy negotiations has even pushed France and Germany into each other’s arms.

It has deprived the Germans of a free-market counterweight to French state-driven dirigisme, and robbed the French of a political balancing force against German dominance.

“One of the most potentially damaging things is the impact on the balance of economic philosophy within the eurogroup,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.

“Without Britain, Sweden, Denmark or Poland, the whole thing will become more corporatist.”

That could weaken a drive led by elder statesman Mario Monti to extend the EU’s single market in areas such as energy and services.

Cameron upset German Chancellor Angela Merkel even before he took office by taking the Conservatives out of the mainstream centre-right political family in the European Parliament to form a Eurosceptical fringe group with Czech and Polish rightists.

He has sought to build bilateral ties with France, signing defence agreements and working on foreign policy initiatives. In the recent crisis over popular uprisings in North Africa, London has worked closely with Paris and Berlin.

“Cameron is probably learning that he has got to work through Europe on a lot of issues, for example to reform the EU neighbourhood policy towards north Africa,” Grant said.

“But the risk is that you get a Britain that is half in and half out of the EU. That probably is sustainable for a while, but it would be a bad outcome because Britain would lose influence on things we should want to influence.”

Will it be Obama vs the economy in 2012?

With a leading Republican candidate yet to emerge, the biggest risk to President Obama’s quest for a second term next year is a jobless rate that has hovered between 9 and 10 percent for months.

March 4’s jobless report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls soared in February by 185,000 jobs, but the overall unemployment rate is nonetheless expected to edge up to 9.1 percent.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is edging toward entering the presidential race but heavyweight Republicans like him have yet to formally line up to oppose Obama in the 2012 election, making the monthly unemployment report one of the best early guides to the president’s re-election prospects.

Analysts say the jobless rate needs to drop below eight percent by autumn 2012 for voters to feel optimistic about the economy – and Obama’s handling of it – when they go to the polls that November.

“The problem for President Obama is that the window to achieve that kind of growth is closing. Without significant job growth this year, he will be in an economically challenging position to open the 2012 race,” said Matt McDonald, an analyst at the Washington policy advisory firm Hamilton Place Strategies.

US voters may be temporarily captivated by turmoil in the Arab world, disputes between Republican state governors and unions or policy squabbles in Congress, but no issue preoccupies Americans as persistently as their own bank accounts and job outlook.

“Unemployment is the best-known measure of the health of the US economy and it’s an indicator of economic performance that is lagging badly,” said economist Gary Burtless at the Brookings Institution, adding that the jobless rate would become more important closer to the November 2012 election.

McDonald estimates the US economy needs to add 190,000 jobs per month in the next 1-1/2 years for unemployment to drop below eight percent by Election Day 2012. “If more people are getting jobs, they are happier about the economy and happier about the job that the president is doing,” he said.

Close race expected
Besides Gingrich, senior Republicans including former governors Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are thought to be planning to seek the Republican presidential nomination, though none has formally announced a plan to run.

And no-one has emerged as a Republican favorite. The famously outspoken Gingrich is remembered from his years in Congress as a polarising figure.

And Romney, a leading candidate in the 2008 presidential race, is accused of having “flip-flopped” on issues. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, while a darling with some media, is seen as popular only with the most conservative voters.

As of now, the presidential election is expected to be very close, whoever ends up running against Obama.

A recent Gallup poll showed Obama tied with any generic Republican candidate among registered voters, with 45 percent likely to back the incumbent Democrat and 45 percent saying they would support “the Republican party’s candidate.”

Sputtering economy or not, senior Republicans say Obama could win re-election. Karl Rove, a Republican strategist considered a major force behind George W Bush’s two presidential election victories, has been quoted as saying Obama should still be considered the favourite.

Incumbents typically have a strong advantage in US presidential races.

“The unemployment rate is important, but it is not the only factor that will determine the 2012 elections,” said Allan Lichtman, a political historian from American University.

“Other factors include major success or failure abroad, avoidance of scandal, an uncontested nomination, the lack of a third party contender, Obama’s charisma and the lack thereof of the GOP contenders.”

Nedbank’s FY profit rises as bad debts decline

South Africa’s Nedbank beat expectations with a nine percent increase in annual profit, helped by a fall in bad debts, and said it expected further growth in the coming year.

South Africa’s fourth-largest bank, like its rivals, was lacerated by bad debts in 2009, after a recession slashed more than a million jobs and left many consumers with ballooning household debt.

Faced with weak loan demand, South African banks are increasingly looking to cut costs and boost non-interest revenue, such as fees and commissions.

“What was encouraging was non-interest revenue again. They keep on saying it and they keep on doing it. They definitely are improving that area and that’s the area that lagged the most against the other banks,” said Rob Nagel, senior portfolio manager at Cadiz Asset Management.

“The other part that impressed us was the cost control. It is a difficult environment to control costs and they somehow managed to do that as well.”

Nedbank rival Standard Bank last year cut more than 2,000 jobs in London and Johannesburg, to offset weaker revenue. Nedbank Chief Executive Mike Brown told Reuters he did not expect to follow suit.

The bank will also focus on keeping cost growth below the rate of growth of non-interest revenue, he said.

Retail unit
Nedbank, majority owned by insurer Old Mutual, has also been focused on righting its retail unit, which has been hit by a flood of bad mortgages. The unit returned to profit in 2010 after a loss a year earlier.

Nedbank, the South African bank that HSBC dropped a takeover bid for last year, said diluted headline EPS totalled 1,069 cents in the year to end-December, up from 983 cents a year earlier.

That compares with a median estimate of 1,039 cents in a poll of 11 analysts by Thomson Reuters.

Headline earnings, the main measure of profit in South Africa, exclude certain one-time items.

Non-interest revenue totalled 13.2 billion rand ($1.9bn), up 11 percent from 11.9 billion a year earlier.

Net interest income, the measure of earnings from lending, was little changed.

Bad debts costs came to 6.2 billion rand versus 6.6 billion in the previous year.

Company of the decade

While crafting the accolade of Company of the Decade, it has become the opinion of the World Finance editorial team that – more than any other time in the past hundred years – the preceding 10 years has been the time for businesses to shine.

During its highs and lows, the global economy of the past 10 years has shown favour to those who have adhered to conservative strategies, and crushed those who have been reckless. This most recent depression has left few unaffected, and the companies that have come through it face an increasingly competitive business environment.

No one has been safe from the changes that have occurred, no matter their status or longevity. Exemplified by Lehman Brothers, global banking institutions have been brought to their knees through a combination of unscrupulous lending and poor investments. Those that have survived unscathed are those that have stuck fast to a sustainable model of investment, taking only moderate risks.

The decade has also been one of awakenings. The terrible events of 2001’s terrorist attacks in New York fundamentally shaped the state of play of world politics. As an event it opened the eyes of all people to the accessible and yet exposed nature of the modern world – and how our political actions can have consequences far beyond our expectations. If anything has been learned from this in the corporate world, it is that it is no longer acceptable for companies to retreat into their own fields, ignorant of the wider world around them. The growing and global middle class is increasingly demanding ethical, considerate and sustainable behaviour from the organisations it supports. Those companies which have succeeded most in the past decade have done so through intimate knowledge of the markets they have the potential to involve themselves in, and using this to meet customer needs.

In the face of sweeping economic challenges, strong but tactful leadership has been required. The US has swung from one of its most direct and idiosyncratic presidents to arguably its most historically significant in hope of radical change. As its fortunes have waned, Europe has moved towards a more conservative-minded leadership, with the departure of charismatic leaders such as Tony Blair and the waning popularity of others such as Silvio Berlusconi. With leaders clinging to old certainties, the recovery in Western Europe is likely to be a painful, slow and less than certain process.

In contrast, China has accelerated along its path to economic dominance, in part as a result of the leadership of President Hu Jintao. Hu has increased the trading transparency of the state with the rest of world, pushing his nation towards its own brand of capitalism that has resulted in strong growth for the best part of the decade.

The power of technology
In parallel, one can observe notable correlation between successful businesses and those company executives that have valued substance over style, had an open approach to business and not feared to innovate when the time has called for it. Progress in technology over the past decade has also done much to alter the business landscape, often resulting in the demise of traditional methods. Modernisation has proved fundamental to businesses wishing to stay ahead of their competitors. As such, larger industries such as the energy sector have had to match an increasing demand for energy with the decline in easily accessible sources of fuel and the push for an eco-friendlier product. As in other industries, the best energy groups have met such challenges not only through seeking innovation and improvement in their current methods but through the exploration of new methods and technology to deliver products to customers more effectively.

The decade has also highlighted the importance of good products and branding. 2001 saw the first appearance of the iPod as Apple’s entry to the fledgling MP3 player market.

Ten years later the company’s multi-product dominance in the portable entertainment market is unquestioned; the iPhone offering iconic design promoted with a sophisticated and focused marketing campaign. Many other companies have demonstrated that fine tuning and targeting their products intuitively is the key to securing the interests of an increasingly sophisticated consumer.

World Finance has witnessed and many CEOs have recognised a truly seismic shift in communication – a look in the average person’s pocket will show just how. The mobile phone has gone from a basic communication device to becoming a virtual office for the business person on the move. The internet too has evolved immeasurably as a business tool bringing with it a seemingly endless string of opportunities with it. No industry remains untouched by this progress, and those enjoying the greatest success have been those who have used new technology to deliver products to their customers. They have aimed to stay one step ahead of the competition.

Having identified these trends of the decade, the World Finance editorial team has selected those companies that hold these themes as key principles to their business. These are the companies which for each country we have chosen to award the title of Company of the Decade.

Angola   
Sonangol

Australia   
BHP Billiton

Austria   
OMV

Bahrain   
Venture Capital Fund

Barbados   
Sagicor

Belgium   
Dexia

Bermuda   
Alterra

Brazil   
Gafisa SA

Brunei   
Baiduri Bank Berhad

Canada   
Royal Bank of Canada

Chile   
Moneda Asset Management

Denmark   
AP Moeller-Maersk

Egypt   
Amer Group

Finland   
Nokia

France   
Sanofi Aventis

Germany   
Deutsche Bank

Hong Kong   
Value Partners

Hungary   
ThalesNano

India   
UTI Mutual Fund

Israel   
Bank Leumi

Italy   
ENI

Japan   
Toyota

Luxembourg   
ArcelorMittel

Malaysia   
CIMB Bank

Mexico   
Banco Interacciones

Morocco   
Attijariwafa Bank

Netherlands   
ING Group

Peru   
IFH Peru Ltd

Philippines   
The Energy Development Corp

Poland   
PKN Orlen

Portugal   
REN

Qatar   
Qatar Telecom

Romania   
Petrom

Russia   
Gasprom

Saudi Arabia   
Sabic

Singapore   
Changi Airport Group

Slovenia   
Gorenje

South Africa   
Sappi

South Korea   
Samsung           

Spain   
Repsol

Sweden   
Electrolux

Switzerland   
Zurich Financial Services

Trinidad & Tobago   
Guardian Holding Ltd

Turkey       
Turkcell

UAE       
Arabtec

UK       
Tesco

Ukraine       
Interpipe

Uruguay       
Banco Republica

USA       
Apple

Zimbabwe   
RioZim

The man of four seasons

When the achievements of Alan Mulally, Ford Motor Company’s president and chief executive, are finally added up, the occasion of January’s Detroit motor show will figure large. It was then, in a genuine shock to other automobile firms, that Mr Mulally unveiled the Ford Focus Electric. The latest product of the 107 year old company, the battery-powered car is seen as a game-breaker not just for Ford but for the industry. Not only will the car compete on price with the Nissan Leaf, Europe’s car of the year in 2010, it will charge up faster and probably run longer between plug-ins.

As such, the Focus Electric and its first cousin, the Focus Hybrid, will maintain the momentum of one of the most remarkable comebacks in American business history. Indeed the hybrid model, much to the chief executive’s satisfaction, has outdone arch-rival General Motors because it will have a range of 500 miles, significantly longer than GM’s Chevrolet Volt.

Even better, Mr Mulally rolled out the vehicles in Ford’s home town of Detroit. He could hardly have made a clearer statement that Ford has achieved “the biggest business turnaround of the Great Recession,” as one analyst put it.

In an extraordinary and highly eventful four years, Ford has recovered on three fronts under its unlikely chief executive. It has ground its way out of a crippling mountain of debt. It has re-engineered its global business under the One Ford slogan, releasing a parade of award-winning automobiles that sell worldwide instead of in separate markets. It has achieved a profit, an achievement considered unthinkable when Mr Mulally was parachuted into the firm. And, unlike its other ‘Big Three’ rivals GM and Chrysler, Ford has done so without a cent from Washington.

Although Ford is not entirely out of the woods yet, the facts speak for themselves. In 2010 Ford earned a pre-tax operating profit of $2.9bn – a 650 percent turnaround on 2009. At the same time Ford’s ranking in its heartland US market jumped 1.4 percent – a giant-sized gain in a country where the titans of the global automotive industry are engaged in an endless battle for a point or two at a time. Ford also took over the top spot from Toyota as the best-regarded car brand. Astonishingly, Mr Mulally even achieved a successful revival of the Taurus brand, previously considered extinct.

And outside America and the UK, where it’s been active for much of the 20th century, Ford achieved breakthroughs in the emerging Asia Pacific and Latin America markets – vital territories for the automotive giants.

Along the way, Moody’s awarded Mr Mulally’s turnaround its own seal of approval by rating up its bonds with the verdict that Ford now has “an economic model that is clearly more robust and competitive, capable of maintaining a significant improvement in its performance over the course of time.”

Air to auto
Startlingly, until four years ago the leader of the rescue mission hardly knew anything about the automobile industry – and even less about the firm with the famous blue oval badge. His vehicle of choice at that time was a Lexus built by the current enemy, Toyota. As the sceptics said when he took over, Mr Mulally would find himself hopelessly out of his depth. He was an aerospace guy, hired from Boeing where he was number two, the father of the 777. Even his mother tried to dissuade him from taking the impossible job. “Alan, you’re not a car guy,” she warned.

So how did the aircraft guy achieve this feat in an alien industry? Highly summarised, he did so through a relentless focus on reality, an impatience with any failure to deal with problems, a refusal to accept automotive folklore, a willingness to fire second-raters, and an openness that came as a breath of fresh air in Dearborn, Detroit. Combined, those qualities make for a highly transparent management style.

And he’s in a hurry, says his immediate boss, executive chairman Bill Ford Jnr: “Alan is not a very complicated person. He is driven.”

That drive comes from a sense of mission. “I am here to save an American and global icon,” Mr Mulally declares simply. Others see Ford’s saviour as turbo-charged by a delight in the challenges, risks and, ultimately, the reward of the job. “If enthusiasm is measurable in automotive terms, Mr Mulally is 16 cylinders of it, pedal to the metal,” wrote Automotive News.

Yet when he took over it seemed that no amount of cylinders could save Ford from a slow extinction and, as many feared, an eventual takeover by much more efficient and profitable Japanese brands. In a nutshell Ford had far too many models as well as brands, and some of those models had more options than buyers knew what to do with. Some women buyers, it was reported, were reduced to tears when confronted with the dashboard of the Lincoln Navigator and its 128 options.

The firm also had too many employees with excessively generous benefits, too many plants, much too much debt and, as insiders now concede, too much in-fighting between turf-conscious, power-hungry senior executives.

Man with a plan
Mr Mulally took up residence in a house three kilometres away from the plants – he can see them from his window – and launched into a fact-finding mission. Carrying notebooks everywhere he went, the newcomer studied up on the company, talking to everybody, scribbling notes and typing them up. Eventually, they filled five binders that gave him a fresh overall picture of what had to be done.

Having compiled all that, he set about summarising everything, like a chef reducing a sauce to its essential elements. Mr Mulally is now famous for being able to present the global company’s entire comeback strategy on a single sheet of paper. And, having determined the main elements of the task ahead, he started tackling them one by one. Here are the results.

The global workforce is now 178,000, down from 300,000, and the number of plants has been cut by nearly 30 percent to 80. Capacity utilisation has jumped to a healthy 85 percent.

He dealt ruthlessly with ruinous employee benefits secured by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union in much rosier, pre-recession times. Mr Mulally effectively gave the UAW an ultimatum: take a stake in Ford’s future by converting the benefits to stocks and cash, or face losing the lot. They took the first option and their entitlements came off the firm’s books. Next he took on the impossible, demanding that hourly rates come down to viable levels. Eventually the UAW settled from $76 an hour – a rate that essentially handed victory in showroom prices to Toyota – to $55 an hour.

So far, so good. Ford’s ill-planned and ill-fated excursion into premium brands through the purchase of Jaguar, Range Rover, Aston Martin and Volvo was draining the company of cash and resources. The first two were sold to India’s Tata Motors, Aston Martin went to a British-led consortium fuelled by Middle East debt, and Volvo was eventually snapped up by Chinese manufacturer Geely.

It could be said that all of the above were commonsense decisions that any experienced and determined manager would make. But next, the aerospace guy turned his attention to cars, more specifically the expensively high number of models that had the effect of cutting Ford’s margins to the bone, especially in a fast-downsizing world. Result? Ford now sells fewer than 60 nameplates worldwide under the Ford and Lincoln brands, down from 97. The Mercury marque has been dropped.

But even 35 percent fewer models is too many, and Mr Mulally is in the process of cutting that figure by a further 20 percent while reducing the number of platforms on which it builds cars from 25 to a dozen.

Crucially, at the same time he restored the Ford brand to primacy within the group. That was clearly the biggest decision of all and, say insiders, it was largely Mr Mulally’s.

Simplicity clearly pays in many ways, but particularly in terms of quality. As Ford manufacturing boss John Fleming explains: “Since the orderable combinations will be reduced by more than 50 percent, that means that on half of the cars, it’s significantly simpler for the manufacturing plant. Also, the ability to make a mistake is reduced.” The results showed up quickly in what had long been a discounted brand. In a JD Power survey of initial quality in mid-2010, Ford ranked number one among car brands excluding luxury makes.

Assembled assets
Perhaps Mr Mulally’s biggest coup was rejecting Washington’s offer of a taxpayer-funded bail-out, stupefying most people in the industry, not least Ford’s dealers who predicted a domino of bankruptcies as a result. Of all the former Boeing man’s moves, this was regarded as the most bold and, in hindsight, clear-headed.

Instead of taking the president’s dollar, Mr Mulally borrowed $23.5bn by taking the unprecedented step of mortgaging all of Ford’s assets to a vast consortium of bankers. Even the famous blue oval badge was thrown into the pot. But it only happened after what must have been one of the most persuasive speeches behind closed doors of the year. “I spoke to a room with over 500 bankers,” Mr Mulally recalls. “Why did they give us the money? Because we had a plan.”

That plan was to stack up enough free cash to ride the storm after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 stopped almost dead the flow of credit that underpins auto sales in the US and in most other markets. Having weathered many a cycle in his 37 years in the aerospace industry, Mr Mulally knew it was time to batten down the hatches.

With the operating finances more or less guaranteed, Mr Mulally launched a none-too-subtle reform of the corporate culture. He particularly disliked the lack of openness at meetings. Senior executives held back bad news about product development lest it reflect badly on them, while others answered their Blackberrys during presentations or talked over their colleagues, infuriating the new boss. In short order he banned Blackberrys and established ground rules for meetings.

“If somebody starts to talk or they don’t respect each other, the meeting just stops,” Mr Mulally told Fortune in the middle of the revival. “They know I’ve removed vice presidents because they couldn’t stop talking because they thought they were so damn important.”

Otherwise many of his managerial measures were simplicity itself. For instance, he insisted on colour-coding reports, with green standing for good, yellow for caution and red for problems needing an immediate fix. At the first few meetings, to Mr Mulally’s surprise, all the reports were marked green.

“We lost $14bn last year,” the stunned boss told them. “Is there anything that’s not going well?” At the next meeting the reports came marked with all colours.

Unsurprisingly, not everybody took to the intruder. Mr Mulally had barely arrived before senior executives started knocking on the executive chairman’s door. Bill Ford Jnr, fourth generation of the Ford family, didn’t open it. He told Fortune: “If I had even cracked the door open an inch to let anybody complain to me or to think that there was ever any separation between the two of us, I think the culture could have overwhelmed Alan and ultimately brought the company down.”

(Some members of the extended Ford family were not entirely happy either, according to reports, about losing their dividends.)

The revival of the Taurus says a lot about the confidence of the non-car guy. The last model had been such a disaster – the family-saloon equivalent of the ill-fated Edsel – that the name had been dead, buried and forgotten. Nobody in the firm had considered resurrecting the clunker.

Such was Mr Mulally’s faith in Ford that he overruled the sceptics and decided to revive the Taurus as a premium brand, a shining symbol of the Dearborn firm’s Lazarus-like comeback. His main argument was that, because it took billions of dollars to establish a brand, there was everything to lose by not re-launching it. Also, as a highly-qualified engineer who had specialised in aeronautical and, unusually, astronautical sciences, Mr Mulally had a lot of respect for Ford’s engineers and other technical people to do the job.

The latest Taurus, released mid-2010, has been hailed as the latest expression of the revival, an automobile that embodies all the driver-friendly, in-cabin digital technology that has underpinned Ford’s recovery from the dark days of mid-2006. As an impressed reviewer wrote: “Ford has taken aim at European and Japanese luxury imports and hit the target with its re-designed and re-engineered Taurus. It can take on any BMW, Audi, Lexus or Infiniti without giving up a thing.”

By now, Mr Mulally could see that, far from hurting him, his experience at Boeing was a big help – especially in the free dissemination of information, lifeblood of a global corporation.

As he explains: “The idea is that there’s nowhere to hide and no reason to either; if you need help, everyone who can help you is present with the necessary information at hand. That’s what I’ve done for 37 years at Boeing.”

Technically, this is known as large-scale systems integration. “You can’t do it well unless everyone plays nice together,” says Mr Mulally. “A car has about 10,000 parts, and an airplane has about four million, but the technology is the same. The sophistication is the same. The parallels are incredible.”

Unlike many turnaround specialists who are better at cutting costs than building revenue, Mr Mulally had conceived an entirely different future for Ford before he sold off the premium brands like Jaguar. Here once again, the outside view helped him see the big picture.

“Everybody says you can’t make money off small cars,” he says. “Well, you’d better damn well figure out how to make money, because that’s where the world is going.”

The result was the Fiesta, a global vehicle for which the German subsidiary was largely responsible, in a bold and largely unprecedented strategy (conventional wisdom decreed that Fords designed in another country pretty much stayed in that country).

Similarly, the new Explorer SUV, which is built on a lightweight Taurus platform instead of a truck one, will be produced for 90 countries from a plant in Chicago.

The first car to get the full One Ford treatment is the latest Focus, embodying Mr Mulally’s overall strategy – one vehicle for all markets – a feat that wasn’t possible perhaps even a decade ago, say automotive experts.

This radical change of direction is based on a shrewd insight:as consumers’ tastes increasingly coincide because of the spread of global communications, it has become possible to satisfy customers with fewer models. “One spin in a Fiesta will tell you as much,” explains an automotive consultant. “It’s as much Milan as it is Milwaukee.”

Introducing new platforms
But Mr Mulally and newly recruited executives also had an insight that tomorrow’s car must be dramatically different from today’s. The result is MyFord and Sync. As Derrick Kuzak, head of global product development, said recently, the purpose is to employ information-age technology to redefine driving: “The experience [must be] so rich they refuse to give it up.”

So saying, Ford has rolled out Sync, a platform providing voice-controlled, in-cabin connectivity to electronic devices, letting the driver keep her hands on the wheel. There’s also EcoBoost, which improves economy and performance, and Blind Spot, which performs a 220-degree search before the driver changes lanes.

Not all customers embraced these developments with wild enthusiasm, especially in Asia where they knew little about Ford. But Mr Mulally is a natural salesman possessed of an almost overwhelming enthusiasm. Plus, he knows how to make an impact.

Late last year, Harriet Luo, buyer of a Ford Focus, went to collect her car from the showroom in Beijing. There to hand over the keys were Mr Mulally, Ford Asia boss Joe Hinrich and his China counterpart Robert Graziano. Naturally, the buyer’s startled reaction made the news and a big statement about Ford’s ambitions in the country.

A big part of Mr Mulally’s success is that he’s clearly very good with people and almost impossible to dislike. Although some find him over the top and almost corny at first (he often remarks how “really neat” it is to be running Ford), most quickly find his relentless enthusiasm, genuineness and optimism just about irresistible. As sister Lenexa remembers, one of his maxims is “learn something from everyone you meet.”

Another factor is his energy. Mr Mulally typically turns up for work at 5:15am and leaves around 12 hours later. He clearly likes the buzz of running a Fortune 500 giant. “I’ve always wanted to do something important, and it had to be in a big organisation,” he says.

And while you might think that one giant-sized job in a lifetime would be enough for the man who managed the development of Boeing’s 777 airliner and had a big hand in earlier models, here he is doing it all over again: “What gets me really excited is a big thing where a lot of talented, smart people are involved.”

However big his jobs have been, the aerospace (and now car) guy has always kept his feet firmly on terra firma, particularly in his native Kansas. “He’s never forgotten where he’s from,” says former classmate Greg Smith, who plans reunions for the Lawrence High class of ’63. “Some people leave Lawrence and never look back. Alan enjoys coming home.”

It was at Kansas University where he met Nikki Connell, his wife of 40 years. And shortly after being named one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people, he was back where it all started at Lawrence High, serving as grand marshal for a parade with his 90 year-old mother alongside him in a convertible. As a thank you gesture, he recently donated a 15-passenger van in her honour to a senior citizen centre. After his mother died last year, Mr Mulally gave the keynote speech for a school fundraising.

Attaining goals
According to his early friends, Mr Mulally was always chronically ambitious. As well as studying aeronautics at Kansas University (Kansas is one of the great aviation states), he was so inspired by the Mercury astronauts later immortalised in Tom Wolfe’s The Right Stuff that he added astronautics with a view to being launched into the heavens.

But that ambition was stymied by the discovery of a form of colour blindness and he turned to aircraft design. Hence Mr Mulally’s admiration for engineers in an industry that often seems to be overtaken by the marketers. He recalls his professor’s dictum about the importance of teamwork: “If we make a mistake, we can cause people to die. So you better damn well work together.”

These days, in what must surely be his last big job, Mr Mulally retains the relentless focus of his youth. “I’m rarely offline except during major family holidays,” he admitted in a recent interview. “Then I enjoy playing with my kids, being in nature and cooking for family and friends.”

And for a man who’s on the brink of pensioner status, his facility with social and other forms of media is unusual, regularly using Flickr, Twitter and LinkedIn to stay in touch with family and friends. And – because a steel-trap mind has enabled him to reduce global problems to single sheets of paper – he still has time for a lot of extra-curricular reading about the environment, technology and other burning issues.

Despite his success at Boeing, Mr Mulally’s head-turning stint at Ford will probably be his main legacy. The hard yards covered, he’s now in the home stretch. Barring further recessions, analysts say Ford will post rising profits in 2011 and future years. Soleil Securities, a firm that keeps a close eye on the automobile industry, estimates Ford can boost operating profit margins from the current seven percent to 13 percent, adding a further $7bn to operating profits on projected sales of $118bn. The firm still has a $27.3bn debt to pay back but it’s not federal debt and, for once, the bankers are happy.

And so is Alan Mulally. Having rescued what was four years ago regarded as a brand in the doldrums, he’s after much bigger fish. “Our competition now is really Toyota and Volkswagen, because they are pursuing the same fundamental strategy — a full family of cars and best in class,” he explained in a recent interview.

As recently as two years ago, Toyota and the Volkswagen group would have laughed at such outrageous ambition – but Mr Mulally believes it’s only logical and, given his boundless optimism, perhaps even inevitable. “I’ve lived 40 years of producing safe and efficient passenger transportation – first with commercial airplanes and now with automobiles,” he explains. “And we will never, never go backwards. Every year it will get better and better.”

You could say the same for the blue oval.

Man of the Year: Alan Mulally
Born in Oakland, California in 1945, Alan Mulally is a native of Kansas. He joined Boeing in 1969 at the age of 25 after graduating in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from Kansas University. He moved steadily up the organisation, taking growing responsibility for a series of aircraft up to the 767. In 1994, he became responsible for all aeroplane development including flight tests and certification. Before being named chief executive and president of Ford Motor Company in September 2006, he was president and chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. According to the latest remuneration information for 2009, Mulally earned from Ford a total $17.9m in salary, bonuses and options.

The recipient of numerous awards, Mr Mulally has been named “Industry Leader of the Year” by Automotive News and one of “The World’s Most Influential People” by TIME magazine. He serves on the President’s Export Council, formed in 2010 to advise President Obama on export enhancement.

In his leisure time he flies a private aircraft, plays recreational tennis and reads. Married to the former Nikki Connell for 40 years, the couple have five children.

Switzerland wins!

In some of the luxury-watch boutiques of Paris, you can hardly move for Asian – particularly Chinese and Indian – buyers. They’re cheerfully paying thousands of euros for handmade, horological masterpieces from Switzerland. In some stores well over half of all sales are to Asians.

And that largely explains why Swiss manufacturers of these high-level time pieces are hiring horologists as fast as they can to keep up with demand. Brands such as Tag Heuer, Hublot, Breguet, Corum and Audemars Piguet had a gratifyingly profitable year in 2010 when sales comfortably exceeded €12bn, but they expect an even better one this year as buyers from “Shankong” flock to their stores. Time pieces costing €2,400-plus make up 40 percent of all sales.

As a symbol of the rapid rebound of the Swiss economy, the buoyant state of the mechanical watch industry is highly appropriate. After all, it was little more than a year ago that these brands were just as furiously laying off staff – 4,200 in 2009 – as they are now hiring them and analysts were gloomy about the industry’s immediate prospects. As indeed was the OECD about the country as a whole, predicting “the global crisis will have a lasting impact on the Swiss economy.”

And now? Credit Suisse economics rejoiced recently at Switzerland’s “surprisingly strong recovery” as employment rose, exports took off despite a powerful franc, and inflation was held at a paltry one percent.

Taking everything together, you could say this nation of just eight million people can lay claim to the unofficial title of winner of the financial crisis.

It seems only yesterday that Switzerland was under attack from all sides. Washington investigators were pursuing its banks for fraudulent activities while Brussels was demanding an end to secret bank accounts. Its much-cherished status as a tax haven was also under threat.

(Switzerland didn’t take too kindly to this outside attention, especially from Washington. Konrad Hummler, chairman of the Swiss Private Banking Association, fumed at what he called America’s “moral duplicity,” pointing out quite correctly that Florida and Delaware are favourite tax havens for Americans. )

And, oh yes, the nation’s two pillar banks, Credit Suisse and UBS, were embroiled in the sub-prime chaos, with the government having to bail out the latter to the tune of $59bn.

Since then we’ve seen the mother of all turnarounds. UBS and Credit Suisse are very much back in business despite UBS having to pay a $780m fine to the US for brazenly inviting American citizens to stash their cash in its secret accounts. (UBS was found to be hiding about $20bn in American money of dubious origin.) To boot, these mighty institutions have been given a “Swiss finish” by the central bank that considerably exceeds the latest Basel III stability rules.

And it’s still a tax haven by another name, one of which is “tax-efficient jurisdiction.” Anybody with at least $250,000 to play with can negotiate an agreement with local authorities that means income taxes payable are significantly less than in most other jurisdictions. This is of course a big reason why Switzerland remains home to at least a quarter of all funds in the hands of global wealth management and why hedge funds are flocking to Zurich.

And as a result of some adroit financial diplomacy, all those accounts may yet stay secret. Although foreign account holders must now sign a “certificate of fiscal conformity” as a sign that everything’s kosher and Switzerland’s 330 banks have agreed to supply other nations with information about suspected money-laundering or other illegalities, a new department of international finance is quietly negotiating a host of bilateral deals under the “Rubik” umbrella. Under this arrangement taxes payable would be extracted from secret accounts without the name of the holder being revealed.

Why has Switzerland got so rapidly out of jail? Just one reason could be that leading businesspeople and bankers routinely move in and out of top jobs in government as “economic counsellors” or equivalent roles. Other nations talk, Switzerland acts.

A cashless society

There is no doubt that cash is an expensive convenience. Its anonymity offers the opportunity for tax avoidance and money laundering, both of which cost governments billions. The business costs of handling cash are escalating, too.

According to a recent study by analysts at McKinsey, the cost of cash to society is about €200 per person; European banks alone could save between €45bn and €90bn per year by eliminating cash from their systems. The costs include both the security and the labour involved in processing and transporting cash, maintaining automated teller machines (ATMs) and removing cash from circulation.  

But handling money is what banks are about, and many see the provision of payment services through current accounts as a way of capturing customers who can then be sold additional, more profitable products. With this in mind, the banking industry in many developed economies has favoured cashless technologies that allow customers to make payments at point of sale terminals with credit or debit cards. By linking these card accounts to a bank account, the banks ensure that the customer is still firmly in their grasp.

Use of these cards has become popular as a replacement for the use of cheques on high value items, making payment service providers (PSPs) very wealthy. Visa, the largest retail electronic payment network in the world, posted income of $774m for the fourth quarter of 2010. But cards have not replaced the use of cash. According to the latest figures from the UK’s Payments Council, over 60 percent of payment transactions are still in cash, although this accounts for only 23 percent of retail payments by value.  

The reason for the discrepancy is that cash is still used for low value purchases, such as the daily newspaper, a sandwich or the bus fare, where the cost of a credit or debit card transaction makes its use prohibitive. To address this end of the market, several banks and PSPs are introducing ‘contactless’ payment systems using NFC (near-field communication) technology. This involves a chip embedded in either a card or a mobile phone, which can be presented to within four centimetres of a reading device that will automatically deduct the funds. No user authorisation such as a signature or a PIN number is required, making the transaction simple and fast. Limits are currently in place restricting each transaction to below €15 and four transactions per day without authorisation to protect the customer from fraudulent use.

Despite heavy development and marketing investments on the part of the banks and their partners, however, these systems are not going to replace the use of cash overnight. While retailers and PSPs argue over who will bear the cost of installing the point of sale equipment (it is estimated that there are nearly 30 million point of sale locations in the world), mobile phone manufacturers are still busy developing the next generation phones that will accommodate the NFC chip.  

In the meantime, demand is patchy. Customers in some regions are resisting the use of these systems due to concerns about security and the lack of a paper trail. In others, society is demanding rapid implementation to protect its citizens. Sweden’s unions, for example, have demanded the early introduction of cashless systems because they are fed up with the high levels of armed robbery targeting the movements of large amounts of cash around the city.

As momentum slowly gathers, the old problem of technology standardisation comes to the fore. With the major players all jockeying for position in what promises to be a lucrative market, retailers and customers will be faced with a confusing array of options. The city of Istanbul, which had little established payments infrastructure in place, has become a testing ground for cashless systems with no fewer than five different pilot projects running over the past five years. Each one has a different combination of bank, PSP, telco and technology provider participating. Clearly the will to move to cashless is there but working out the scheme details, building in security, negotiating profit shares and installing the infrastructure will all take time.

A different paradigm
Compare this to the developing world where huge segments of the population have never had access to a bank. In many rural areas bricks and mortar banking infrastructure does not exist, and the low incomes typical of the area mean that banks have frankly not seen any market potential. In Nigeria, where GNI averages £3 per day, it is estimated that 74 percent of the population have never used a bank; 40 percent of the municipalities in the Philippine islands do not have banks within their jurisdictions. 

But what many people in these areas do have is mobile phones. “In Ghana,” says Bruno Akapa, from MTN Ghana, “less than ten percent of the population has access to a bank, but 50 percent have access to mobile telecommunications. We can build on that infrastructure to provide banking services to a much wider segment of the community.” MTN Ghana, a telecoms network provider, launched a service called Mobile Money in 2009 and now claims that 88 percent of the population has access to its service. The service allows mobile owners to store and transfer money, pay bills and purchase goods, without needing a bank account.

To the consternation of the banks, a number of non-bank entities are jumping in to a market they considered their own fiefdom. Telecommunications companies are in the forefront of offering mobile money solutions, while in many rural areas all across developing countries in Africa, Asia and South America, local shops are becoming agents for taking cash deposits and making payments against digital money transfers. Using this system, a young man working in Nairobi can send money via an SMS message from his mobile money account to his family in the country, safely and securely. The recipient of the message can take her phone to a local agent who will pay out the cash once the SMS has been properly validated.

Should the banks be worried? Many are. Despite a rapid increase in demand-driven schemes starting up around the developing world, some banks are turning to legislation in an attempt to resist this incursion into their traditional business activities. The Indian Reserve Bank, under pressure from internal banking institutions, has set out some stringent rules about how mobile banking should work that effectively excludes non-licensed participants. Within this protected environment, the banks are introducing their own mobile schemes but growth is slow compared to the telco-led initiatives in other countries.

Time for a new business model
“This supports my argument that the banks would be better off letting the telcos and PSP specialists deliver payment services and concentrating their efforts on creating other products to sell on the new platforms,” comments Dave Birch of Consult Hyperion.

For most European banks in normal years, Birch points out, payments account for around a third of income and 40 percent of costs. Strip out the payments and you increase the profitability of the bank. Payment services can then be handled by specialist organisations operating under payment institution rather than the more onerous credit institution licenses, giving them much lower cost burdens.  

These specialist PSPs will also have the flexibility to handle the very low value transactions that many experts believe will drive the final push to a totally cash free society. Recent innovation has produced end-to-end transaction aggregation which reduces the per transaction cost by eliminating the need for per transaction reconciliation, posting or processing at any point in the value chain.   

Once these facilities are in place, the market potential is huge. Forget the people buying a single apple or the daily newspaper: savvy marketers are eying the potential for monetising online content such as music, gaming and journalism. “Zynga, an online social game developer with 360 million active monthly users, is currently the second biggest merchant on PayPal, and that is all clocked up from low value payments to buy virtual goods within the game scenario,” notes Birch. “The market potential for low value transactions is vast.”

Mobile banking in less developed economies is also opening new markets, in addition to helping people with the basic necessities of life. In Haiti, an initiative that has the backing of the William and Melinda Gates Foundation and the US Agency for International Development is enabling residents to access the money needed to rebuild lives shattered by last year’s hurricane. Around the world in Senegal, people in outlying areas with no access to banks were able to use their mobile phones to send payment to satellite providers and watch the World Cup.

The most successful mobile money scheme to date is M-PESA, launched in Kenya in 2007, which today has an estimated 12 million users. A recent study has shown that the incomes in households with M-PESA users have increased between five and 30 percent and the banks are beginning to wake up to the opportunity this represents.   Equity Bank Ltd., Kenya’s largest provider of small loans, has recently formed a partnership with Safricom to allow Kenyans to open bank accounts through M-PESA.

“This service has, [by September 2010], already led to something like 750,000 new accounts being opened,” notes Birch, “so it’s absolutely clear that mobile money provided by non-banks not only does not compete with banking services, it can actually turbocharge them.”

Gold standard advances

But if the global credit crisis and subsequent economic fallout has taught investors one thing, it’s that we are not living in normal times – this evidenced by central banks across the Western World employing quantitative easing measures (with varying degrees of success) to kick start their domestic economies in order to avoid slipping back into recession.

Meanwhile, currency debasement – not least that of the US dollar, which many analysts now argue is in a long-term bear trend – has become the watchword. And with the value of paper declining, gold, unsurprisingly, has consolidated its position as a long-term store of value and the investment of choice.

Yet this doesn’t tell the full story. Indeed, in many ways gold proved to be a sideshow in 2010 – its 28 percent increase in value paling into insignificance against the 97 percent gain for palladium and 80 percent for silver as global industrial demand began to accelerate. While the latter’s price touched a 30-year high of $30.49, the gold-silver ratio, denoting each metal’s relative performance, touched a four-year low, ending the year at 46.0, after having been at 64.9 as of end-2009.

Add into the mix the eurozone debt crisis, culminating in multibillion bailouts for Greece and Ireland, and it isn’t difficult to find the major drivers of investment demand for gold and other precious metals.

Latest available data (Q3 2010) from the World Gold Council illustrates the point. It shows total gold demand at 922 tonnes, an increase of 12 percent from Q3 2009. In value terms, demand grew 43 percent to $36.4bn over the same period. Demand for gold jewellery increased by eight percent from Q3 2009 (a record $137.5bn in value terms), with four of the best performing markets – India, China, Russia and Turkey – accounting for 63 percent of global demand.

Elsewhere, retail investment rose 25 percent (from Q3 2009) to 243 tonnes – the largest contribution to total demand growth coming from bar hoarding, which increased 44 percent from the previous year.

The total value of net retail investments during the quarter was a record $9.6bn, representing a 60 percent increase from Q3 2009.

However, total gold ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) demand fell by seven percent from Q3 2009 to 39 tonnes, following a surge in the previous quarter due to heightened sovereign risk and ever-present currency worries.

Industrial demand has now recovered back to pre-crisis levels of 110 tonnes, reflecting an increase of 13 percent from Q3 2009 – the recovery having been driven by improving demand for consumer electronics goods globally, in particular from emerging markets such as China and India, as well as an increased range of new technology products with gold components.

Despite the largely positive fundamentals, Charlie Morris, who manages HSBC Global Asset Management’s Absolute Return Service, errs on the side of caution. Thusfar the bank has maintained a significant position in the metal for three reasons. First and foremost it is seen as a ‘value trade,’ where the long-term target, according to the bank, is $2,600/oz – based on comparisons to commodities, money supply, inflation and other real assets. However this target could take several years to be realised.

Secondly, structural demand exceeds supply with a queue of potential buyers ranging from central banks to private individuals, but a relatively tight supply from the mines. Therefore, falls in the gold price are likely to be limited by supportive buyers.

Finally, the behavioural characteristics have been more attractive than either equities or other commodities, as gold has lower volatility, high liquidity and offers diversification benefits due to its low correlation.

“That said, following the strong rise in price, the correlation with generic ‘risk assets’ has increased and so the diversification benefits have slipped away at a time when it is quite extended from trend in dollar terms,” says Mr Morris. “We have therefore taken the prudent course of action and halved our position in gold bullion to six percent to reflect the fact that we remain bullish over the long term but acknowledge that gold has run ahead of itself at a time when the diversification benefits have become less obvious.”

Meanhile Tom Kendall, gold analyst at Credit Suisse, believes fears over the past year of currency debasement, political upheaval and inflation – resulting in substantial flows of money moving into gold from institutional and private investors – will continue in 2011, albeit at a more sedate pace.

“We expect most of those concerns to persist through 2011,” he says. “The forecasted creeping rise in US interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve, would pose a challenge to higher USD gold prices were we in a more ‘normal’ global environment.”

“However, although we expect the recovery in global industrial production and fixed asset investment to continue, financial markets are likely to remain ‘sub-normal’ for some considerable time to come,” he says.

Despite US interest rates expected to begin creeping up, Mr Kendall says short term interest rates in real terms are expected to remain near zero or negative. Both factors should help feed bullish gold market sentiment.

Inflation will also continue to feature high on the list of gold investors’ concerns in 2011.

While gold is by no means an exclusively macro-economic play, flows in the physical markets remain hugely relevant to understanding both price direction and, in particular, support and resistance levels. And with central bank/sovereign funds expected to be net buyers of significant volumes in 2011 – for the first time in many years – the bullish portents remain good.

Mr Kendall argues that not only has gold re- established strong credibility as a reserve asset over the last two years, he also believes there has been more of a ‘generational’ shift in thinking rather than a temporary change in sentiment.

The investment bank, which says the gold bull market will persist into a tenth year in 2011; is forecasting an average price for the year of $1,490/oz but expects it to trade above $1,600 at some point before year-end.
Like Mr Kendall, currency debasement is a theme taken up by Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital. In its 2011 Outlook, issued in January, BarCap is forecasting the price of gold to average $1,495/oz, with a high of $1,620.

“We expect investment demand to propel gold prices to fresh record highs this year,” says Ms Cooper – this based on a clouded macro environment against a backdrop of low interest rates, growing uncertainty surrounding currency debasement and medium-term inflation fears, as well as geopolitical tensions continuing to stoke investors’ appetites for a portfolio diversifier and a safe haven.

Conversely, jewellery demand is expected to weaken, though scrap supply will likely respond to higher prices, resulting in a notional gold surplus. However, the bank expects this to be absorbed by investment demand.

Looking ahead, the elephant in the room will remain, as ever, China – the Beijing authorities in December raising one-year lending rates and the one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and 2.75 percent respectively.

The rate increases – the second since mid-October – had been flagged well in advance after Chinese leaders announced in early December a shift to a ‘prudent’ monetary policy from a ‘moderately loose’ one in response to inflation hitting a 28-month high in November of 5.1 percent.

Market consensus is for three further rate hikes of 25 basis points this year.

For gold, higher interest rates may negatively hit domestic demand as it raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal. And that may have an effect on the market more generally in terms of gold’s price potential on the upside.

Despite tighter monetary conditions in China, demand for high tech goods and electronics due to the metal’s well-known resistance to oxidative corrosion and excellent quality as a conductor of electricity should provide some price underpinning.

Moreover, the People’s Bank of China issued guidelines in August 2010 outlining the further development and deregulation of the domestic gold market – the implication being that the Chinese government is supportive of investment in gold. Despite changing macroeconomic conditions in the interim there is little likelihood of the government retreating from this stance in the short to medium term at least.

On the industrial front, global mine supply, after years of underinvestment in the 1980s and 1990s, has failed to respond to record high nominal prices in the interim. Expectations are for little likelihood of this changing for the next several years at least – an imbalance that may be further aggravated as advancements in nanotechnology, as well as environmental and biomedical applications, lead to greater demand for the yellow metal.