AgBank closes mega IPO with tepid HK debut

Agricultural Bank of China’s $19.3bn IPO crossed the finish line on July 16 after a hectic three-month sprint, notching up modest gains in its Hong Kong debut amid concerns about valuations and glut of bank share sales.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China both soared 15 percent on their Hong Kong openings after listing in 2006. Founded in 1951 by Mao Zedong as the rural unit of the central bank, AgBank is the last of China’s “Big Four” state-owned lenders to list its shares.

“Even though the response from the retail side was a bit disappointing, it was well received by institutions, so this was expected,” said Ben Kwong, the chief operating officer of securities firm KGI Asia Limited. “The chances of further upside will be relatively small.”

Kwong’s view on lack of upside was shared by several analysts and traders, aware that AgBank, historically the weakest of China’s top four banks, is going public during a sliding stock market.

Still, the lender pushed ahead in a down market, published figures that forecast a profit and a pared down bad loan book.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down about eight percent in the three months since the AgBank IPO kicked off, while the Shanghai Composite has shed almost a quarter.

AgBank’s IPO could still rise to a world record $22.1bn if additional shares set aside in an over-allotment option are sold in the coming weeks. Should the stock come under pressure in Shanghai and Hong Kong, underwriters are expected to purchase shares to help stabilise the price.

Its soft debut bodes ill for upcoming fundraisings by peers including ICBC and BoC, who are returning to capital markets to raise tens of billions of dollars to supplement their capital.

Who’s who
Top executives at the Beijing-based bank gave a crystal model of the company’s headquarters to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Hong Kong’s top legislators, including CEO Donald Tsang, were on hand to watch, along with CICC investment banking head honcho Levin Zhu, Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann and other top executives at the companies involved.

Also present were the top investment bankers involved in the three-month process of selling the offering to mutual funds and arranging the cornerstone investors which accounted for $5.45bn of the Hong Kong IPO.

According to the bankers involved, the deal was remarkably quick but gruelling.

AgBank’s Vice President Pan Gongsheng is the man credited with leading the IPO process, having led ICBC in its record $21.9bn float in 2006.

Pan is known for running a rigorous deal, and he didn’t disappoint this time around. His team kept attendance records and daily reports on the performance of the 10 banks handling the IPO.

Valuation concerns
AgBank’s Chairman Xiang Junbo, a war hero and award winning script writer, was relaxed in the morning, eating breakfast alone at Hong Kong’s Shangri-La hotel before the listing.

Wearing a red tie, he only took three questions from the reporters at the listing ceremony, which disappointed the local media gathered there.

“After this listing, the bank will enhance its competitiveness in the market and its risk management,” he said.

 The timid start to AgBank’s life as a public company is attributed to several factors.

One is that AgBank’s IPO price was set at a slight premium to Bank of China in terms of price to book value. That may allow AgBank to raise the most money ever through the IPO, but some fund managers viewed the stock expensive, given that the bank was historically the weakest of China’s top four lenders.

With almost 24,000 branches and some 441,000 employees, AgBank has almost double the staff and twice as many outlets as BoC, but a similar asset base.

The offering price represents 1.65 times AgBank’s forward book value, just above BoC, but below that of ICBC and China Construction Bank.

China International Capital Corp (CICC), Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Macquarie and Morgan Stanley are the banks handling the Hong Kong offering, along with AgBank’s own securities unit. CICC, Goldman and Morgan Stanley held the top role.

CICC, Citic Securities, Galaxy and Guotai Junan Securities handled the Shanghai portion.

Russia and Germany pledge closer economic ties

Russia and Germany have pledged to strengthen economic ties as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called Europe’s largest economy Moscow’s “key partner” for the future.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said relations between the two states had taken a stride forward as she led a delegation of business leaders on a tour of Russia, China and Kazakhstan.

“Germany is our key strategic partner,” Medvedev said after meeting Merkel in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg, urging Germany to invest in Russia and help modernise its economy.

The Russian leader has called for warmer relations with the West as he seeks to diversify the Russian economy after the global economic crisis underlined its dependence on exports of energy and commodities.

Business deals signed during Merkel’s visit included an agreement worth Ä2.2bn ($2.8bn) for German engineering conglomerate Siemens to supply trains to Russian Railways.

According to Russia’s Customs Service, Germany was Russia’s biggest trading partner in 2009, just ahead of the Netherlands, with China in third place. The EU accounted for over half of Russian trade last year, and the US just 3.9 percent.

However, Germany’s exports to Russia have fallen sharply in the economic crisis, prompting German business lobbies to criticise the pace of Russian economic reform.

Merkel, who initially adopted a more reserved attitude to Russia than her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder when she took office in 2005, has increasingly warmed to Moscow, meeting Medvedev for the second time in just a few weeks.

“Relations between both countries are more intensive than they have been for a long time,” Merkel said, adding that it was vital the pair stepped up economic cooperation.

“We talked about how it would be good to have a few shining beacons out there to demonstrate that (economic) relations are not a one way street,” the chancellor said.

Lucrative deals
Merkel’s trip gave her an escape from a run of negative political developments at home, and a chance to trumpet the German economy’s recovery from a record slump in 2009.

Among the industry leaders travelling on her delegation were the bosses of Siemens, carmaker Volkswagen, planemaker Airbus, chemicals group BASF, retailer Metro and lender Commerzbank.

On top of its contract to supply trains, Siemens also secured a Ä1bn renewable energy joint venture with Russian wind power companies Rosteknologii and Rusgrido.

EADS unit Airbus won an order worth more than Ä2bn to deliver A330 planes to Russia’s Aeroflot, a source familiar with the deal said.

And Gazprom Bank will take a 30 percent stake in Russian-German energy agency Rudea. The bank, which has stakes in some 500 Russian firms, will fund energy efficiency projects, such as plans to update street lighting across the country.

Siemens has partnered with RZhD (Russian Railways), Russian power generators and medical groups for years, earning billions of dollars from RZhD alone.

It supplied RZhD with eight trains for its fledgling high speed link between Moscow and St Petersburg last year, and signed a 30-year maintenance contract for Ä630m.

The group will also build a research centre at Skolkovo – a technology hub set up by Medvedev to mimic Silicon Valley.

Economists

 The tarnished Alan Greenspan
Architect of the now much-derided “Greenspan put”, he protected the US economy from the collapse of the dotcom stock market bubble by dropping official interest rates. However that action is also seen as fuelling the risk-taking that preceded the most severe financial meltdown in 75 years.

The global Jeffrey Williamson
An authority on globalisation this Harvard economics professor argues that the upheavals were much bigger in the 50 years between 1820-1870 than they are today. Back then, globalisation was triggered by migration, colonial expansion, and rapid industrialisation. In short, not that much different from now.

The long-serving Jacques Polak
As well as a 40-year career at the IMF, Polak was one of the last survivors of the 1944 Bretton Woods conference that created the post-World War II monetary system. As Dominique Strauss-Kahn observed in a tribute, he was “a leader of critical thought during the post-war evolution of the global economy”.

The much-misunderstood John Maynard Keynes
The widespread view that Keynes’s theories are behind “quantitative easing” policies adopted by most western nations in the wake of the financial crisis could hardly be more wrong. The champagne-loving Keynes did ground-breaking work on trade cycles and growth, but he always believed that printing money was highly dangerous and should be temporary.

The rigorous Friedrich A. Hayek
Winner of the Nobel Prize, the late Austrian-born Hayek has made a big comeback in the financial crisis because of the great debate over the role of public spending. Hayek argued that private borrowing was a far more effective stimulus than public borrowing. As he put it back in 1932, an economic recession was no time for “new municipal swimming baths”.

Allan H. Meltzer, scourge of Obamanomics
A long-term adviser to the Reagan and Bush administrations, 82 year-old Meltzer says “Obamanomics has failed”. A world authority on the monetary policy which lies at the heart of anti-crisis measures, the professor compares the sluggish results of the Obama stimulus package unfavourably with the quick turnarounds achieved by the corporate tax cuts of Ronald Reagan.

Arch-globaliser Deepak Lal..
Indian-born and Oxford-educated, professor Lal blames the current crisis on “financiers taking ever more risky gambles with the complicity of the government.” Much-admired for his bold, often contrarian views, he is also an apostle of globalisation who believes that its opponents can be loosely divided into Asians who mistakenly fear creeping westernisation or westerners who want the status quo.

Chris Edwards, enemy of public debt
A member of the Cato Institute’s influential think tank, Edwards predicts that today’s youth will pay an exorbitant price tomorrow for fast-rising public debt in the US and elsewhere. In a just-published study called Rising federal debt is fiscal child abuse, he warns that “federal policymakers are leaving a terrible fiscal legacy to the next generation, and a stimulus package would only make matters worse”.

Fearsome BIS economists Stephen Cecchetti, M.S. Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli
Ageing populations is the next big threat, say these economists in a March paper from the increasingly influential BIS. They warn that “drastic measures” are essential to reverse the future cost of age-related liabilities piled on top of sky-high official debt incurred in the wake of the crisis.

Fact-mongerers Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
The terrible twins of US economics, Reinhart and Rogoff, have concluded after spending the best part of a decade digging into the entrails of financial crises past and present that we’ve never had enough of the right kind of information to know exactly what’s going on. The former IMF economists are amazed at “how little [facts] the authorities have at their finger-tips”. Fortunately, they will make available to other scholars the voluminous data they’ve assembled for their big-selling 2010 book, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis.

Ukraine bows to IMF demands, raises gas prices

Ukraine, bowing to pressure from the IMF ahead of a new loan deal, will take the painful step of raising gas prices for households from August, the government has announced.

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said the 50 percent price hike, an unpopular move aimed at cutting the budget deficit, was necessary to secure a new $14.9bn stand-by facility from the fund.

“We have to tell people the truth. In these circumstances, we had no other choice than to agree with the IMF on financial support,” Azarov said at a televised government meeting.

“In talks with the IMF, the government defended its own vision of ways to combat the crisis and protect the people. But the creditor’s position is always stronger than that of a weakened country in need of support.”

Utilities such as gas supplies have benefited from Soviet- era subsidies in Ukraine which have kept prices at an artificially low level. Raising prices would reduce government spending on these subsidies but was likely to cause some discontent against the new administration of President Viktor Yanukovich.

The price hike will affect about 18 billion cubic metres of gas a year gas used for cooking in apartment blocks and heating in small houses. This represents a significant part of the 47-50 billion cubic metres the ex-Soviet republic consumes every year.

Tariffs for central heating, which accounts for another big slice of annual gas consumption, have not been changed yet.

Azarov said the government, which is committed to fighting poverty in the country, would widen the list of poorer households eligible for social security payments to partly offset higher gas bills.

Ukraine reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF on a new $14.9bn stand-by facility needed to plug holes in its budget.

Under the deal, it needs to reduce the consolidated budget deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP this year from the earlier projected 6.3 percent.

The Ukrainian government has to present a letter of intent to the IMF which should lead to approval of the deal by the IMF board and the unlocking of a first tranche of credit, possibly in August.

Total recall

It is every manufacturer’s worst nightmare – the product that the company has spent millions developing, producing, marketing and shipping all around the world may have a fault. There is a risk that some of the products – maybe a few, perhaps many – could be harmful. The company faces a stark choice: voluntarily pull the stock off the shelves or the forecourt and ask customers to return items for an immediate refund, or wait until the authorities compel them to do so, while also making potentially sensitive product information public.

Either way, the costs can easily escalate into tens of millions of pounds and leave the company reeling. One has only to look at the current recalls in the motor industry to see how cripplingly expensive and damaging the whole process can be. Three separate but related recalls of automobiles by Toyota Motor Corporation occurred at the end of 2009 and start of 2010. Toyota initiated the recalls, the first two with the assistance of the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), after several vehicles experienced unintended acceleration. The first recall, on November 2, 2009, was to correct a possible incursion of an incorrect or out-of-place front driver’s side floor mat into the foot pedal well, which can cause pedal entrapment. The second recall, on January 21, this year was begun after some crashes were shown not to have been caused by floor mat incursion. This latter defect was identified as a possible mechanical sticking of the accelerator. Toyota also issued a separate recall for hybrid anti-lock brake software in February.

As of January 28, 2010, Toyota had announced recalls of approximately 5.2 million vehicles for the pedal entrapment/floor mat problem, and an additional 2.3 million vehicles for the accelerator pedal problem. Around 1.7 million vehicles are subject to both. Certain related Lexus and Pontiac models were also affected. The next day, Toyota widened the recall to include 1.8 million vehicles in Europe and 75,000 in China. By then, the worldwide total number of cars recalled by Toyota stood at nine million. As of January, 21 deaths were alleged due the pedal problem since 2000, but following the January recall, additional NHTSA complaints brought the alleged total to 37.

At the beginning of March General Motors announced that it is recalling 1.3 million small cars in North America because of a power steering problem that has been linked to 14 crashes. The firm said four models were affected – the Chevrolet Cobalt, Pontiac G5, Pontiac Pursuit and Pontiac 4. It said the fault meant that at low speeds “greater steering effort may be required”, but that the cars could still be “safely controlled”. GM blamed the fault on a supplier partially owned by Toyota.

On March 4 Japanese car group Nissan said that it will recall 540,000 vehicles, including some Titan full-size pickup trucks, to check and repair potentially faulty brakes or fuel gauges. The recall is focused on brake-pedal pins in 2008-10 model-year Titan pickup trucks, Quest minivans and Armada and Infiniti QX56 sport-utility vehicles. Nissan is also looking into fuel gauges in 2005-08 model year Titans, Armadas and QX56s and some 2006-08 model-year Frontier pickups and Pathfinder and Xterra SUVs.

Daihatsu, meanwhile, has told the Japanese Ministry of Transport that it will recall four models, including the Atrai and the Hijet, due to airbag problems. That recall covers 60,774 vehicles, while Suzuki will recall 432,366 vehicles focusing on two models, the Every and the Scrum, sold under the Mazda brand. The ministry said it normally gets about 300 auto recall filings a year from automakers and the recalls.

This is not the first time the US car industry has been hit with a major product recall. In the summer of 2001 former Ford chief executive Jacques Nasser had to testify before Congress about the safety of its 4×4 sports utility vehicle, the Ford Explorer. The hearings took place soon after the US NHTSA announced that 203 people had been killed in accidents involving Explorers with Firestone tyres. Ford replaced around 13 million tyres at a cost rumoured to be around $3bn. Soon after, Ford’s CEO was also replaced. Even as long ago as 1959 Cadillacs had to be recalled after the steering linkage (pitman arm) failed on many cars while making a 90 degree turn at 10 to 15 mph.

To some, the furore surrounding recalls is not always consumer motivated, although they might begin that way. According to Dennis Desrosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, product liability cases are often stoked by class action lawyers. “The US is a legal-driven society and the lawyers see very deep pockets in these original equipment manufacturers,” says Desrosiers. “In the case of Toyota, there are more than 40 class-action lawsuits and dozens of individual actions. And most of the talking heads in the media blasting Toyota have been lawyers involved in litigation. Since Toyota still has billions in the bank, these lawyers are extremely motivated – and have deep pockets to keep this going a long time,” he adds.

“What the public needs to understand is that vehicles have become so complex that it’s inevitable that every original equipment manufacturer will eventually be hit with a serious recall – with no exceptions,” says Desrosiers. “Most people don’t realise it but there are literally thousands of vehicle complaints filed with regulators each year. The vast percentage can’t be replicated, leaving open the question of whether there was a problem with car or driver. Many motorists can’t admit or don’t know they were at fault. Pedal misapplication – frantically pressing the accelerator, thinking it’s the brake – is a recurring issue on most brands. Poor emergency response by motorists is an even bigger problem, but elections aren’t won by telling voters that they are bad drivers.”

Of course, cars are not the only products that have been the subject of costly recalls. The Yo Yo Ball, a once-popular kids’ toy, had to be recalled in 2003 following at least 410 reports of near-strangulation of young children. The toy’s stretchy cord proved excessively dangerous to younger children who unknowingly wrapped it around their throats. Countries like Canada and the UK instituted outright bans of the product in 2003: Canada’s health department even recalled over 2,000 of the toys before its ban went into effect.

Food scares are among the most common product recalls. The Nestle Toll House cookie recall of 2009 arose from scares of an E. coli contamination that made several consumers ill after eating the dough in its raw, uncooked state. Fears of a more widespread contamination prompted Nestle to recall 300,000 packages of the cookies after the Wall Street Journal revealed a total of 65 reported illnesses (with at least 25 people being hospitalised in connection with eating the poisoned cookies, including seven with severe complications that could cause kidney failure). Some food scares have been particularly grim. A design flaw with boutique chocolates made for sweet-toothed South Korean and Chinese consumers was uncovered in August 2007 – the chocolates were laced with “little white worms”. What’s worse, the chocolates were actually counterfeits of a popular brand, and the worms were larvae of a common moth. Chinese businesses feared that the worm scandal would lead to a weakening of the already questionable “made in China” brand.

In the past five years Europe has become much more stringent in recalling or withdrawing products from the market, as well as making consumers aware of their associated dangers. In 2005 the General Product Safety Directive came into effect to improve the safety of consumer products. The directive can force European companies from all 27 EU member states to carry out a total recall of products deemed to put consumers at risk. The rules also allow the European Commission to make commercially sensitive information public if it believes that there is an unnecessary health risk relating to a company’s product.

The directive requires member states to ensure that producers place only “safe” products on the market and applies to all products intended for consumer use. While this definition includes products used in the context of service provision, such as hairdryers used in hair salons, gym equipment used in health centres and lifts in shops and offices, it could also include aeroplanes, trains and cars used for public transport.

The directive applies to both manufacturers and distributors. Both have a duty to “immediately” inform the authorities if they conclude that a product that they have placed on the market is dangerous, and must provide details of their response plans. Producers must also take “appropriate action” in the event of a product crisis, including withdrawing products from the market, adequately and effectively warning consumers and – as a “last resort” – recalling products from consumer hands. If they fail to do so voluntarily, national authorities can order them to take action. This means that producers must take steps to ensure that they are kept aware of any product risk and that their goods are sufficiently traceable. Relevant measures include compulsory product reference/batch marking and, if appropriate, sample testing, investigations and the maintenance of complaints registers.

From January 1, 2004, when the directive came into force in most other EU member states, up until October 1, 2005, when the UK enacted the rules, there were over 900 recall notifications on the European Commission’s website. These ranged from the usual faulty electrical goods to carcinogenic underwear from Slovakia and trumping figurines from Poland that contain cyclohexanone, a substance indicated on the EU’s list of dangerous substances.

Given the spate of product recalls – voluntary as well as forced – IT firms have realised that there is a growing market to provide products that will give greater assurance. Hewlett Packard, along with the Canadian arm of GS1, a non-profit organisation dedicated to improving supply chain efficiencies, launched a new cloud-based recall service late last year that can trace and remove potentially harmful food products from the supply chain.

According to HP, the GS1 Canada Product Recall service will run on its cloud computing platform for manufacturing, which allows companies to see and share information across the supply chain. Food and consumer products organisations can use the service to reduce errors, decrease the amount of time it takes to respond to a recall, and mitigate the costs associated with managing the recall process.

But relying on software may not be enough. Lawyers warn that companies should be under no illusion that the directive can be strictly enforced at the highest level. The European Commission, for example, has considerable powers to ensure compliance and enforcement.  National authorities must notify details of product crises and response measures to the Commission, which in turn disseminates that information to other member states. Where problems arise in a number of member states, the Commission may take steps at a Community level itself, including ordering that public warnings be given about risks posed by a product, requiring an EU-wide withdrawal or product recall, and imposing a temporary or permanent sales ban.

Furthermore, all information that is available to national authorities or to the Commission relating to risks to consumer health and safety will generally be made available to the public. In fact, the directive expressly provides that trade secret information may be disclosed, if necessary, to protect consumer health and safety.

As of March 5, 2010, there were a number of new additions to the EU’s RAPEX website, the rapid alert system for all dangerous consumer products. A number of baby clothes made in Bulgaria were ordered to be withdrawn from the market because there was a risk of strangulation as the hoods of the tops had functional cords included. A bicycle tyre repair kit from the Netherlands has been banned and the product withdrawn after the product was found to pose a chemical risk because it contains 14 percent by weight of benzene and 1.1 percent by weight of toluene, which do not comply with the EU’s safe chemicals rules. Fairy lights produced in China but marketed from Hungary have also been withdrawn from the market with a consumer recall ordered by the Commission as there is a danger of electric shock.

So far, most recalls (in Europe especially) have been made voluntarily by producers. But the costs can be phenomenal. In 2001 a shipment of Sony Playstation games consoles fell foul of Dutch law relating to the Restriction of Hazardous Substances directive in electrical and electronic equipment. Acting on a tip-off, customs officials seized 1.3 million Playstations worth $160m because their cabling contained too much cadmium. The company spent $110m replacing the parts. In the UK, Coca-Cola’s recall of its bottled water product Dasani in 2004 is estimated to have cost £50m. The overall costs of the Sudan 1 red food dye recall earlier this year are reported to be in the region of £100m.

The Association of Manufacturers of Domestic Appliances (AMDEA) says that product recalls can be massively expensive. This is because a recall – as opposed to a product withdrawal, which means clearing shelves and stopping sales – can mean manufacturers and suppliers having to personally visit individual consumers and retrieve the faulty goods. UK business lobby group the Confederation of British Industry says that affordable insurance coverage to deal with product recall is “hard to find”. Insurers agree that recall policies are not popular among most manufacturers and suppliers, although the market is growing.

A difficulty facing EU companies is that even though each member state will have implemented the directive into their own legal system, it is likely to lead to 27 different versions of the same legislation, with punitive measures varying from one country to the next.

Companies need to be aware that while their products may comply with safety standards in Germany, they might infringe Italian, Spanish, Dutch, Swedish, or Polish regulators even though the local law is based on the same directive. Because member states will have some latitude on how to implement the directive, there may be significant differences between different national safety regimes.

Experts say that companies should err on the side of caution. One lawyer says that companies need to wise up. “Many businesses will need to overhaul their product monitoring and crisis management capabilities to ensure they comply with international rules on product recalls as it is increasingly likely that regulators will become involved at an early stage and seek assurances about the company’s controls and the traceability of the products. There are going to be large penalties if companies fail to comply.”

The 10 worst product recalls of all time
1: Simplicity and crib deaths
More than 400,000 drop-side cribs made by Simplicity were recalled in July 2009 after an 8-month-old child in Houston suffocated. The Chinese-made cribs had a detachable side that easily broke, creating a gap between the side of the crib and the mattress where a child could potentially become trapped and suffocate. It wasn’t Simplicity’s first problem with the cribs. In September 2008, the company recalled 600,000 cribs of the same type; in 2007 a million older-model cribs were recalled after two children became trapped and suffocated.

2: Chinese milk powder
In 2008, China’s largest provider of milk powder recalled 700 tons of baby formula after one child died and more than 50 others developed kidney problems. Melamine, a chemical used in the making of plastic, was found in the baby formula; it later emerged that unscrupulous manufacturers had been adding it to food products to cheaply boost protein values. Two men were eventually sentenced to death for their role in the scam. The revelations only further damaged China’s reputation in production. Melamine had been a problem a year earlier, in March 2007, when the FDA recalled more than 60 million cans of cat and dog food after the death of 14 pets.

3: Merck’s Vioxx
On September 30, 2004 pharmaceutical giant Merck announced it would voluntarily recall its worldwide stock of Vioxx, an arthritis drug that had brought in $2.5bn in sales the previous year. Merck executives said the recall was a precautionary measure spurred by a study that found patients who took the drug for at least 18 months incurred more heart attacks and strokes. However, in 2007, Merck paid $4.85bn to settle 27,000 lawsuits from people affected by injuries or death associated with the drug.

4: Peanut scare
After a 2008 salmonella outbreak that sickened hundreds of people and may have killed eight, federal investigators traced the strain to peanuts processed at Peanut Corp.’s Blakely, Georgia, plant. Once there, the investigators found nightmarish conditions – mould lining the walls and ceilings, rodents and cockroaches running amok, and food supplies contaminated with waste. Worse still, the FDA found evidence that the company allowed products to ship even after internal testing discovered salmonella contamination. The result was a massive recall of the processed peanuts contained in everything from peanut butter to ice cream. The company, which denies the allegations, declared bankruptcy in the wake of the investigation. Federal criminal charges against the company are pending. Barely two months later, California-based Setton Pistachio opted to recall its entire 2008 crop of pistachios due to Salmonella fears. The company is widely credited with getting out in front of the issue before it became a major problem, acting as soon as it discovered “several types of salmonella during routine analysis of the product”. While the infection was said to be unrelated to the peanut butter scare, Setton’s executives no doubt realised that consumers were in no mood to take risks and likely opted to initiate the recall as a proactive buffer against lawsuits and criticism.

5: Tylenol
Arguably the biggest and most publicised product recall in business history involved Tylenol, whose over the counter pain relief pills killed seven people in 1982. The deaths came as a result of the pills being laced with potassium cyanide and led Johnson & Johnson to issue a nationwide recall of some 31 million bottles with a retail value of about $100m. When the FBI investigated the incident, it was found that the poisoned bottles came from different factories, but the deaths all occurred in and around Chicago, suggesting that the tampering took place at the store level. The perpetrator was never charged, but a man named James W. Lewis was caught trying to extort money out of Johnson & Johnson to “stop the cyanide-induced murders”. Lewis served 13 years in prison on the extortion charges, but was released in 1995 on parole and now lives in Massachusetts.

6: Dell notebook batteries
When a Dell laptop burst into flames at a technical conference in Japan in June 2006, no one paid much attention. But what must have seemed at the time like a freak occurrence turned out to be a systemic flaw with over four million Dell notebook batteries produced by Sony. The lithium ion batteries were prone to excessive overheating, posing a fire hazard that at least six people reported before Sony mandated a worldwide recall of the defective batteries, which were used in Dell’s Latitude, Inspiron, Precision and XPS models. To its credit, Dell exchanged the hazardous batteries with new ones, often supplying consumers with brand new machines in its place.

7: Worcestershire Sauce
A two year investigation from 2005 to 2007 in the UK found that a Worcestershire sauce manufactured by Premier Foods had been contaminated with a carcinogenic dye known as Sudan 1. The contamination was linked back to adulterated chilli powder, and the resulting products were used in everything from pizzas to ready-made meals sold on supermarket shelves. Fear of the contamination and its risks prompted the removal of over 400 suspected products from shelves, at an estimated cost of over £100m.

8: Westland/Hallmark beef
Food processor Westland/Hallmark was forced in 2008 to recall over 143 million pounds of beef after the USDA deemed it unfit for human consumption. While there were no reported illnesses (and it was later concluded that no illnesses were likely), the beef was nevertheless recalled because cattle had failed to be inspected before the resulting beef was shipped to school cafeterias and supermarkets. The recall was a major blow to the company, with as many as 150 school districts ceasing to purchase any beef from Hallmark in what is now acknowledged as the largest beef recall in US history.

9: Cadbury-Schweppes chocolate
UK based Cadbury-Schweppes, now owned by Kraft, was forced to recall over a million chocolate bars in 2006 after a widespread food scare involving Salmonella poisoning in the UK and Ireland. The company was roundly criticised for recalling the chocolate after it had taken a decision to delay informing authorities about the Salmonella problem for five months. The biggest scare at the time involved Easter eggs, which may or may not have been contaminated before children got a chance to eat them.

10: Mattel toys
About nine million toys – including Barbie dolls and items from the digitally animated movie Cars – were recalled by Mattel in 2007 amid dangers from lead paint and magnets. Mainly produced in China, the toys were recalled after it was found that deadly and illegal lead paint had been used. The magnets also created controversy because of their small size and the ease with which they could be swallowed. This recall came just two weeks after an earlier one of about 1.5 million Fisher-Price infant toys, also because of lead paint scares. At least one child died from problems with the toys and 19 others required surgery after swallowing magnets.

Japan signals tax reform, seeks to avoid deadlock

Japan’s government has announced it will press on with tax reforms to cut a huge public debt despite a stunning election setback, and was looking to two opposition parties to help drive policy change.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority in a weekend election, putting his policies to deal with debt and generate growth at risk and prompting warnings by credit rating agencies S&P and Fitch on Japan’s sovereign ratings.

His Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) still controls the more powerful lower house. But it needs help from other parties to push bills through the upper chamber in the struggle to end decades of stagnation in the world’s number two economy.

“If we don’t see a credible plan come through by the end of the year, it will send a negative signal for its rating, adding pressure to the credit rating,” Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Rating’s sovereign analyst for Japan told reporters.

Trying to soothe worries the election drubbing would sap political momentum for fiscal reform, National Strategy Minister Satoshi Arai said debate was still needed on a possible hike in the five percent sales tax, one of the lowest among major economies.

Kan had floated the possibility of doubling the tax as a way to bring down public debt about twice the size of the $5trn economy and to stave off a Greek-style debt crisis as social security costs soar to care for an ageing population.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda conceded that Kan’s proposal may have turned off voters in the election campaign.

“But we must carry out an overhaul of the tax system including the consumption tax,” he told a news conference.

Unlike Greece, Japan’s public debt has long been financed from its massive pool of domestic savings that mostly sits in the banking system and is recycled into Japanese government bonds.

But fears are growing that the ageing population will start drawing on those savings, forcing Japan to rely on foreign investors to fund its debt and potentially creating market instability.

The change has already started and Japan’s savings rate has fallen to about three percent from over 10 percent a decade ago.

The Fitch warning of the higher risk of a ratings downgrade helped send September Japanese government bond futures to the day’s low at 141.33.

Tough challenge
In attempt to break the political deadlock, Kan told close aides he would ask the third and fourth-biggest parties in the upper house – the New Komeito and pro-reform Your Party – for policy-based cooperation, the Yomiuri newspaper reported, adding he was probably eyeing a formal coalition in the future.

But Kan, in office just since June, faces a tough challenge as the two parties have ruled out joining the government, pointing to a period of political manoeuvring and policy paralysis.

Your Party, which has 11 seats in the upper house after Sunday’s poll, could cooperate with the DPJ on getting the Bank of Japan to do more to fight deflation and on overhauling the country’s bureaucratic system.

But the party has said it would not join the debate on a possible sales tax increase, arguing that the government should first focus on cutting wasteful spending.

The Buddhist-backed New Komeito, which backs policies to fix the pensions system and social safety net, could agree to the debate on the sales tax but only if the government first tackles social security reform.

Bills at immediate risk in an extra parliament session expected in the coming months include one to scale back postal privatisation, sought by Kan’s current small coalition partner, the People’s New Party, but opposed by the Your Party.

Kan has a more pressing threat – a possible challenge from opponents in his own party including powerbroker and critic of the sales tax hike proposal, Ichiro Ozawa, ahead of a party leadership vote in September.

He could reshuffle his cabinet after the vote, Jiji news agency reported. He is already under pressure to replace his justice minister who lost her seat in the election.

Santander to buy SEB’s German retail banking unit

Spain’s largest bank Santander moved one step closer to its goal to be a full service retail bank in Germany with the acquisition of Sweden’s SEB retail banking division, the bank has announced.

The Ä555m ($699.1m) deal comes as Santander attempts to increase its footprint in both Europe, particularly Germany and Britain, as well as in higher growth markets like Latin America, where it is reported to be planning acquisitions in Columbia and Peru.

“Germany is a core market for Santander. This acquisition is a significant step toward achieving our goal of being a full service retail bank in Europe,” Chairman Emilio Botin said in the bank’s press release.

The purchase price is close to the Ä500m sources familiar with the matter told reporters Santander would pay for the division, which made an operating loss of Ä117m in 2009. Santander said its core capital ratio could fall by ten basis points from the acquisition.

Earlier the Financial Times cited Francisco Luzon, head of Santander’s Latin American operations, as saying that the bank was looking to increase its presence in Colombia and Peru, where it has market shares of between 10 and 20 percent.

ECB’s Trichet: budget cuts won’t lead to new slump

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet dismissed warnings that drastic and simultaneous spending cuts planned by eurozone governments could send the 16-country bloc back into recession.

US policymakers have called for continued stimulus to keep momentum in the global recovery, while many economists and academics have raised fears that austerity measures on the cards in Athens and a clutch of other European capitals could snuff out the eurozone’s nascent recovery.

“We are totally against the view that reducing public expenditures will hinder economic growth,” Trichet said at an ECB watchers conference organised by the Goethe University Frankfurt’s Centre for Financial Studies.

“Consolidation measures will help turn the current upturn into sustained growth.”

The ECB took a cautiously confident view of the eurozone’s recovery after it held the bloc’s interest rates at a record low one percent.

Trichet said it was too soon to sound the all-clear over the crisis, but backed eagerly awaited bank stress tests – currently being carried out on a sizeable chunk of Europe’s financial sector – to help the recovery process.

“These tests will increase transparency and enhance investors’ confidence in Europe’s banking sector,” he said.

It remains vital for governments to get their finances back in order, he said.

“Just like consumers and countries, governments cannot live beyond their means forever. Fiscal authorities need to look beyond the current cyclical upturn. There is no alternative to that.”

In a copy of Trichet’s speech released by the ECB, he also backed harsh punishments for governments that flout Europe’s deficit limits.

“In the most severe cases of persistent non-compliance (countries not complying with stability pact rules), a limitation or suspension of voting rights should be considered.

“We are now at a stage in which we have to finalise new rules and regulations that will help to make our economies more resilient… It is a very important phase and it requires our full attention,” he added.

Precautionary principles

In order to protect the environment the Precautionary Approach is widely applied: fundamentally, where there are potentially grave or irreversible threats, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective action.

The main difference is in how precaution should be exercised in practice. This basis for precautionary principle in many conventions and treaties requires differentiating them from those that are legally binding and those that are not. An early example of legal precaution is Justinian’s statement, in 527AD, that “the maxims of the law are to live honestly, to cause no harm unto others, and to give everyone his due”. Today, the forms of the precautionary principle generally require ranking of choices based on either a full risk-cost-benefit balancing or some accounting for the costs or risks, or both, but one should also consider, depending on the jurisdiction, factors that go beyond the confines of cost–benefit analysis. Legal principles are generally unenforceable as such, although modern legislation accords them a positive and guiding force; preambles and principles are statements of general legal intent and thus lack the specificity required for enforcement. On the other hand, certain enunciations of the precautionary principle are a constitutional command, as in the EU.

Precautionary principles should be differentiated from other principles of precaution, such as zero or significant risk because the former are part of statutory law, while precautionary principles are often constitutional. All however reflect varying levels of public policy, often resulting in secondary legislation that can err on the side of uniformity and ease of use by adopting conjectural defaults. Precautionary principles formulate a moral justification for acting when a hazard can potentially cause severe consequences and its causation is uncertain. This moral justification can result in a suboptimal choice: consequences that are more adverse have been known to occur after implementation of a precautionary choice.Yet the concern is that anticipatory actions and erring on the side of caution are necessary in choices that affect occupational or public hazards. In some of those principles, the magnitude or the severity of the potential consequences leads to disregarding their probabilities and the uncertainty in the causal connection between them and the hazard. Bans characterise these choices. Others believe in the proposition that precautionary decisions and choices must be guided by balancing risks, costs, and benefits, as well as being characterised by a specific level of legally demonstrable causation.

The repeated lesson, still only partially included in much political discussion, is that precautionary choices thought to prevent hazards when they are implemented, are later found to cause unanticipated harm. If that unanticipated harm could have been predicted, the failure to have done so is inexcusable in the sense that acting on a conjectured danger, justified by a legal maxim, is unfair – because it redirects scarce resources from more valuable societal investments.

Yet, not acting by postponing preventive action, because of large uncertainties surrounding the severity of the hazard, can increase the magnitude of those consequences. Thus the dilemma, should society wait until uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to trigger regulatory action, or act precipitously on a conjecture? The corollary question is; What is sufficient evidence?

There is a simple rule that is specific to uncertain hazards: the assessment and selection of the preferred choice from the set of choices is based on scientific analyses of these choices, given the full – and thus avoiding simplifying assumptions or practical shortcuts – state of knowledge about the hazard. Each choice, consequence, probability of occurring, and so on is assessed through risk-cost-benefit balancing; the idea is to inform and guide decision makers and stakeholders, not command them to commit to a specific action. The justification of the final choice in the public interest, a matter of public policy, must account for factors that cannot be directly included in the risk-cost-benefit balancing. In the EU, for example, having to account for the economic and social development of the community as a whole, as per Art. 134r(3) of the Treaty of Maastricht can require analyses that extend beyond the confines of a choice-specific balancing. The risk-cost-benefit analyses are essential because they account for uncertainty, causation, the value of new information and the cost of gathering it, and the utility of the payoffs associated with each option open to the decision maker. In terms of how to analyse those actions, balancing criteria such as the maximisation of the expected discounted values of the payoffs, can guide the selection of the optimal (relative to the criterion adopted) act by identifying it. Those analyses are transparent, replicable, and testable via a number of methods, including simulations. Their extent can go beyond microeconomic consideration to include macroeconomic ones. There are costs of either action or inaction to society; nonetheless, the magnitude of the stakes justifies formal analysis of risky choices. However, conducting formal analyses is also costly. These costs include having to deal with: complex mathematical and statistical issues, data needs and their availability, and several forms of uncertainty and variability. In the end, the results from formal analysis are constructive and meant to inform policy-makers. Although the analyses are formal and thus independently replicable, those analyses are not normative.

Assessing and implementing actions to limit exposure to the hazardous situation and thus reduce risk and monitoring risky choices under a precautionary principle are the explicit results of legislative fiat that are costly to society. That is, it is possible that the improperly justified allocation under a precautionary principle would divert some scarce resources to pay for an action that is much less protective than its next best alternative, as measured by the opportunity cost of the action not taken.

When the magnitude of the consequences and the probabilities are both large, quick action becomes imperative.

Precautionary principles argue for both circumspection and prevention when the magnitude of the potential adverse event is severe, but its probability is relatively small. Arguing for costly action when the causes of the adverse event are either poorly understood or conjectural is unlikely to result in an equitable distribution of risks and benefits, if an action developed on such basis is taken. When the expected loss of a choice is small, some can argue against taking immediate precautionary action if the magnitude of the expected value is smaller than some legal minimum. Others look at the magnitude and severity of the probable outcome, but keep probability and magnitude separate and do not multiply them, thus arguing for action even when the probability is small but the magnitude of the adverse consequences is large. These alternative situations reinforce the suggestions that, regardless of their wording, the enunciation of the precautionary principle should contain specific guidance on the strength of the scientific evidence and the explicit recognition of time-dependent changes in scientific information.

This article is an edited version of
an entry in the “Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and
Assessment”, Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Used by
permission.

www.wiley.com

Japan machinery orders slide on economy doubts

Japanese machinery orders tumbled by the most in almost two years in May as companies grew more cautious about the business outlook due to a rising yen and signs of a global economic slowdown.

Bank lending in June also fell, matching the biggest annual decline in almost five years, as demand from companies for funds to invest in plants and equipment remained sluggish.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa stuck to the central bank’s view that Japan’s economy was showing further signs of a moderate recovery, but he and other market watchers voiced concerns about the potential fallout from Europe’s debt woes.

A senior government official said there was a risk Japan’s economy may enter a lull, after service sector sentiment worsened for two straight months in June.

“Europe’s financial problems haven’t had an impact yet, but companies are applying the brakes now,” said Tetsuro Sawano, a senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

“People are also worried about a slowdown in the United States later this year.”

Core private-sector machinery orders, a highly volatile series regarded as an indicator of capital spending, fell 9.1 percent in May, the biggest decline since August 2008 and far more than the median market forecast for a 3.1 percent decline.

Germany drafts Ä9bn defence savings plan

German defence ministry experts have drawn up a list of potential
savings in weapons and equipment worth Ä9.3bn in the long-term,
according to newspaper reports.

German daily Bild reported the
number of A400M military transport aircraft would be reduced and 15
Transall transport planes taken out of service immediately.

Under the proposal, Germany would buy only 80 NH-90 helicopters instead
of the planned 122 and halve the number of new Tiger attack helicopters
to 40.

Bild and business daily Handelsblatt reported the plan
included buying 37 fewer Eurofighter combat jets than originally
planned.

Handelsblatt said the 23-page document recommended
placing no orders for EADS’s Talarion UAV and instead ordering Saateg AA
Male drones, in what would be a further blow for the French-German
company.

Bild said the plan recommended Defence Minister
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg reduce the number of Tornados in the air
force to 85 from 185 as quickly as possible, the newspaper said.

The German navy should take eight frigates, 10 speedboats and 21 Sea
King helicopters out of service in the medium to longer-term and order
only three instead of four new class 125 frigates, Bild reported the
savings plan as saying.

The US-European MEADS missile
development programme would not be affected, the paper said.

Spyker avoids more debt in final Saab payment

Dutch carmaker Spyker Cars used internal funding rather than external
debt to pay General Motors the final $24m purchase price for Sweden’s
Saab, ending concern over how it would foot the bill.

Niche
carmaker Spyker, which has never made a profit, took over the larger
Saab from GM earlier this year and is now working to revive the flagging
brand, but the final instalment of the purchase price had been due on
July 15.

Spyker Cars said it made the payment without increasing
its external debt or issuing new shares, adding the internal funding
became available after the acquisition of Saab Great Britain Limited by
Spyker on May 31.

A Spyker Cars spokesman said the company paid
the final instalment to GM using cash from Saab Great Britain.

“Saab
Great Britain is a wholly own subsidiary of Spyker Cars and has given
an inter company loan to Spyker,” spokesman Mike Stainton said.

Further concern had been sparked about the company’s ability to fund the
final part of the deal after it said in February it still needed to
secure financing for the $24m payment.

Spyker Cars had said it
intended to fund the payment primarily through senior debt and that it
had pledged assets to GM as security for the final payment.

“The
early payment of the second and last instalment underlines our desire
to finalise the transaction with GM as soon as it was possible, enabling
management to fully focus on the future of the group,” Spyker Cars
Chief Executive Victor Muller said in a statement.

Spyker spent
$400m buying the iconic Swedish brand Saab, $74m of which was paid in
cash for Saab, including $25m borrowed from a Muller investment vehicle
and $25m from an issue of shares, largely to GEM Global Yield Fund Ltd.

Japan business mood best in two years

Japanese business confidence was at its best in two years in the three months to June and big firms revised up capital spending plans, a Bank of Japan survey showed, in a sign the export-driven economic recovery is taking hold.

The tankan survey showed Europe’s sovereign debt woes and the sharp appreciation in the yen that followed have not yet taken a toll as Japanese companies benefit from solid exports to Asia, to the relief of policymakers.

But analysts say sentiment may sour as world stock prices extend losses on fresh sovereign debt stress in Europe and growing fears of another global economic downturn.

“Overall, the tankan survey shows better corporate sentiment, especially among big manufacturers, who have raised their outlook, but it still leaves some elements of concern. The survey does not paint an entirely optimistic view for the economy,” said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust and Banking in Tokyo.

“Companies’ exchange rate forecasts show they still expect the yen to stay under strengthening pressure, which will hurt their earnings.”

The headline index measuring big manufacturers’ sentiment improved 15 points to plus 1 in June, the tankan quarterly survey shows, higher than a median market forecast of minus four. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of improvement and the first time sentiment turned optimistic in two years.

The index for September was seen at plus three, showing firms expect conditions to improve further over the next three months.

In a sign the recovery is broadening, the survey showed big firms expect to increase capital spending by 4.4 percent for the year that started in April.

While that was smaller than the 4.9 percent rise forecast by economists, it was an improvement over the previous tankan that showed companies planned to cut spending by 0.4 percent. In the previous year, big firms cut capital spending by 17 percent.

Benefits moderating
Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield gained two basis points to 1.1 percent after the tankan, pulling away from a seven-year low hit on June 30. But the optimism shown in the survey was not enough to keep the Nikkei average from hitting a seven-month low.

Japan’s first-quarter economic growth outpaced that of the US and Europe on solid exports to Asia. The rebound in exports has led to a bottoming out in capital spending.

But falling shipments and rising inventory in May signalled the benefits of a rebound in exports may be moderating. Analysts say growth will likely slow this year as the impact of subsidies on energy-efficient goods fades.

Recent yen gains may also dampen sentiment. Big manufacturers forecast the dollar on average to stand at 90.18 yen in the current fiscal year, the June tankan showed, against 91.00 yen predicted three months ago. The yen has already moved higher than the June forecast and is hovering around 88 yen to the dollar.

“Uncertainty over the outlook, stock falls, the yen’s further gains as well as a rise in real interest rates due to deflation may hit corporate capital spending ahead,” said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities.

“Excess employment and production capacity continued to ease but the situation has not improved enough to resolve output gap, so deflation remains a drag on the economy.”

The tankan’s index measuring job conditions showed companies see excess labour shrinking only modestly, a sign they will not boost hiring any time soon.

That adds to challenges for Prime Minister Naoto Kan, seeking to appeal to voters before a July 11 upper house election with pledges that his Democratic Party can strengthen the economy and repair the country’s tattered finances with tax hikes.

The tankan will also be scrutinised when BOJ board members next meet for a rate review on July 14-15. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates near zero. It will also review its long-term growth forecasts issued in April, under which it expects the economy to recover on solid Asian growth.

“The BOJ must be relieved to see this tankan, because it confirms that the economic outlook report issued in April is still valid,” said Naomi Hasegawa, a senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

“The BOJ is likely to keep monetary policy unchanged. At the same time, the BOJ will mention increasing uncertainties due to fiscal concerns in Europe.”

The sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. Negative readings mean pessimists outnumber optimists.

Correlated risks

Correlated risk refers to the simultaneous occurrence of many losses
from a single event. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and
hurricanes produce highly correlated losses: many homes in the affected
area are damaged and destroyed by a single event. An insurer will face
this problem if it has many eggs in one basket, such as providing
earthquake coverage mainly to homes in Los Angeles rather than
diversifying across the entire state of California.

To
illustrate the impact of correlated risks on the distribution of losses,
assume that there are two policies sold against a risk where p = 0.1, L
= $100, where p is the probability of a loss and L is the magnitude of
the loss. The actuarial loss for each policy is $10. If the losses are
perfectly correlated, then there will be either two losses with
probability of 0.1, or no losses with a probability of 0.9. On the other
hand, if the losses are independent of each other, then the chance of
two losses decreases to 0.01 (ie, 0.1 × 0.1), with the probability of no
losses being 0.81 (ie, 0.9 × 0.9). There is also a 0.18 chance that
there will be only one loss (ie, 0.9 × 0.1 + 0.1 × 0.9).

The
expected loss for both the correlated and uncorrelated risks is $20.
However, the variance is always higher for correlated than for
uncorrelated risks if each has the same expected loss. If a risk-averse
insurer faces a highly correlated loss from one event, it will want to
set a high enough premium to not only to cover its expected losses but
also to protect itself against the higher probability of experiencing
catastrophic losses due to the higher variance. Thus, risk-averse
insurers will always want to charge a higher premium for correlated
risks than uncorrelated risks.

This article is an edited version of
an entry in the “Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and
Assessment”, Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Used by
permission.

www.wiley.com