Author: itsupport

Europe’s stark warning

Posted on by itsupport

Europe is at an economic crossroads. Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, has warned that the continent faces an “existential challenge” unless it can reverse decades of economic stagnation and flatlining productivity. In a 400-page report penned for the European Commission, the former Italian premier delivered a sombre message: without significant investment and concerted co-operation, the EU risks losing its very reason for being.

The challenges facing the EU are by no means new. The continent has been plagued by low growth since the start of this century, and has grappled with sluggish wages and weak productivity since the global financial crash. As Draghi’s report notes, up until now, “slowing growth has been seen as an inconvenience but not a calamity.” But the world in which the EU operates is changing dramatically. World trade is slowing, and the EU’s share of this trade is in decline. Geopolitical tensions are high both in Europe and the Middle East, with the Russo-Ukrainian war also exposing the EU’s reliance on foreign gas. On European soil, meanwhile, ongoing cost-of-living crises and the rise of right-wing populist parties are causing ever-increasing fragmentation across the continent. Against this backdrop, low growth can no longer be dismissed as an inconvenience. In this new world, Europe’s lack of growth has become a threat to its future. And as China and the US race ahead with investments in frontier technologies and the green economy, Europe risks being left behind.

It is not all doom and gloom, however. Draghi’s report also sets out an ambitious blueprint for reversing the EU’s ailing fortunes, advocating for closer collaboration and hefty investment in shared European objectives. Cutting regulation, boosting innovation and unlocking the benefits of decarbonisation all form part of Draghi’s plan to revitalise Europe’s economy. And while these recommendations have proved popular with economists and business leaders alike, the sobering reality is that the proposal comes with quite a price tag. Somehow, Draghi warns, the money must be found, or else the EU must “genuinely fear for its self-preservation.”

Brave new world
In 1946, Winston Churchill gave a landmark speech at the University of Zurich, in which he advocated for a ‘United States of Europe.’ After the atrocities of two world wars, the idea of a more united, collaborative Europe began to gain traction, and the first steps towards a European Union were tentatively taken. Buoyed by a post-war growth miracle, the ‘Original Six’ nations of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands began to pursue economic integration, establishing the European Economic Community with the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957. Collaboration grew over the following decades, and the ‘European Union’ was officially founded in 1993 when the Maastricht Treaty came into force. With the birth of the single market, the EU emerged as the largest and most economically integrated trading bloc in the world.

The promise of free movement of people, goods, services and capital was a real boon for European businesses of all sizes. Conceived as a way to eliminate trade barriers, stimulate competition and strengthen European integration, upon its launch the single market proved to be a boost to the EU economy. Trade with Europe flourished, employment opportunities improved, and member states saw their GDP tick up in response. In short, the single market worked for the world of the day. Now, some 30 years later, that world has all but disappeared.

In the late 1980s, when the single market was taking shape, Europe was the beating heart of the global economy. The post-war baby boom had created a young and growing workforce, and across central and eastern Europe, communist regimes were collapsing. China and India together represented less than five percent of the world’s economy, and Europe was keeping pace with the US on innovation, research and development. But the global picture now looks very different. Over the last three decades, the EU’s share of the global economy has shrunk. China, India and other rising Asian economies now play a leading role on the global stage, while the US is roaring ahead as the world’s economic heavyweight.

In 2008, the EU economy was still fractionally larger than that of the US. By 2023, however, the US economy was around 50 percent larger than the EU, reflecting a dramatic divergence of economic fortunes on either side of the Atlantic. While growth in the EU is slowing, it is surging in the US, much to the surprise of economists and forecasters. The long-lasting impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, rampant inflation and a widespread energy crisis pushed the EU to the brink of recession last year, and its current economic outlook remains subdued. By contrast, the US has defied expectations to emerge from the pandemic stronger than ever. Wages are up, unemployment is down, and new business creation is at a record high. Looking to the East, meanwhile, even a cooling Chinese economy continues to outpace European growth. In this brave new world with new economic titans, Europe is simply struggling to keep up.

Looking inward
The shifting geopolitical landscape has certainly taken a toll on Europe’s economic fortunes. But if the continent is to truly get to grips with the challenges it faces, it will need to own up to issues of its own making. For decades, Europe has remained highly dependent on imports, particularly when it comes to fossil fuels and raw materials. Draghi himself has named Europe as the most dependent of all major economies, highlighting that “we rely on a handful of suppliers for critical raw materials, and import over 80 percent of our digital technology.”

Slowing growth has been seen as an inconvenience but not a calamity

In a time of peace and prosperity, such arrangements may not necessarily be cause for alarm. However, the Russo-Ukrainian war has exposed just how vulnerable Europe can be to geopolitical shocks. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia was Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas, by some margin. Around 45 percent of Europe’s gas imports came from Russia in 2021, with the country also supplying the EU with over 100 million tonnes of crude oil and over 50 million tonnes of coal each year. That all changed in May 2022, when the Russian taps started to turn off. With cheap Russian energy no longer an option, Europe was forced to look towards other, more costly alternatives.

In this era of heightened geopolitical risk, Europe must reconsider its reliance on imports. Once reliable dependencies have morphed into vulnerabilities, and the EU can no longer assume that its suppliers will always provide the goods that it so urgently requires. And Russian gas isn’t Europe’s only weak point as far as imports are concerned. While the US has been looking to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports since 2018, Europe has grown increasingly reliant on the Asian superpower for critical resources – in particular, those rare earth materials that are crucial to enabling the clean energy transition.

“This is an area where we rely on one single supplier – China – for 98 percent of our rare earth supply, for 93 percent of our magnesium, and 97 percent of our lithium – just to name a few,” the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen noted in a speech given in Brussels last year.

“Our demand for these materials will skyrocket as the digital and green transitions speed up,” she warned. “Batteries that are powering our electric vehicles are forecast to drive up demand for lithium by 17 times by 2050.”

It is clear that Europe will be unable to realise its clean energy ambitions without access to these critical raw materials, but the Russo-Ukraine war has taught the continent a difficult yet timely lesson on over-dependencies. In recognition of this challenge, the European Commission has introduced a Critical Raw Materials Act, which sets out benchmarks to be met by domestically sourced, processed and recycled raw materials. It looks like Europe is learning from its recent misfortunes, but it will need to increase its diversification efforts if it hopes to create a secure future in an increasingly unstable world.

A united Europe?
One of the guiding principles of the ‘European project’ is the belief that the countries of Europe are stronger together than they are apart. The single market was, in many ways, founded on this theory, and sought to break down barriers and encourage collaboration across the continent. An admirable ambition, certainly. But the reality of the single market has been very different.

As many critics have noted, the single market is not so ‘single’ in practice. There are significant barriers to true cross-border exchange, from differences in national tax systems to conflicting requirements for e-commerce. To make matters more complicated, there are separate national markets for financial services, energy and transport, meaning that we see a divergence of policies and regulations along national borders. This complex landscape can be off-putting to foreign firms that may otherwise want to invest and scale up in the EU.

“We have left our single market fragmented for decades, which has a cascading effect on our competitiveness,” Draghi says. “It drives high-growth companies overseas, in turn reducing the pool of projects to be financed and hindering the development of Europe’s capital markets.
And without high-growth projects to invest in and capital markets to finance them, Europeans lost opportunities to become wealthier.”

According to Draghi, it is not just the single market that ought to become more consolidated. He argues that the EU needs to unite around a shared purpose and a shared vision if it is to achieve its full potential.

“It is evident that Europe is falling short of what we could achieve if we acted as a community,” he laments. In other words, Europe needs to think big, and to start exploiting its scale. The EU has a massive collective spending power, Draghi argues, but does not adequately pool its resources to achieve shared objectives. When it comes to policy, too, we see fragmentation and divergence across Europe, rather than joined-up strategic thinking. Rallying EU member states around common goals may prove a difficult task when there are so many national interests at play, but collaboration at scale may be the only way that the EU can keep pace with the giant economies of the US and China.

The productivity problem
While economists have spent years fretting over Europe’s sluggish growth, EU citizens have generally been less concerned by the continent’s flagging GDP. That is, until now. Inflation began creeping up after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and rose even more dramatically following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, fuelling cost-of-living crises in many nations across Europe. Households began to feel the sting of increased food and gas bills, while a decline in real wages made it more difficult for families to make ends meet. Across the pond, it is a very different story. Thanks to its rich supplies of oil and gas, energy prices have remained relatively stable in the US, with Americans paying between three and four times less for their energy consumption compared with their European counterparts. With wages rising and unemployment low, US citizens are reaping the benefits of a flourishing economy.

By contrast, a 2023 survey carried out by the European Parliament found that the rising cost-of-living was the most pressing worry for 93 percent of Europeans, ahead of public health, climate change and even the spread of war in Europe. The survey revealed that almost half of the EU population felt that their standard of living had fallen since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating that individual citizens and families are beginning to feel the impact of Europe’s economic poor performance.

Europeans are right to be concerned about their financial future. The gap in living standards between the EU and the US is widening, with real disposable income growing twice as much in America since the year 2000. This economic divergence has become ever more pronounced since the Covid-19 pandemic, and economists have been searching for the cause. According to Draghi, there is one main factor behind Europe’s poor performance – its persistently low productivity. Europe’s productivity problem is well known by now. Productivity has been slowing across the continent since the 1970s, and it can’t simply be blamed on leisurely lunches and afternoon siestas. A failure to invest in emerging industries from the 1990s onwards has continuously hampered the EU’s opportunities for growth.

“Europe largely missed out on the digital revolution led by the internet and the productivity gains it brought: in fact, the productivity gap between the EU and the US is largely explained by the tech sector,” Draghi notes in his report. “The EU is weak in the emerging technologies that will drive future growth.”

If the EU has already missed out on significant productivity gains that the digital revolution could have brought, it threatens to make the same mistake again with the forthcoming artificial intelligence revolution. Already, the US and China are surging ahead with investments in AI and other frontier technologies, leaving the EU lagging behind in this new race. Similarly, while Europe is well-placed to lead the global green energy transition, it now risks losing its edge to China unless it ramps up its spending on R&D and upskilling. Quite simply, Europe cannot afford to forgo the productivity gains that these new industries promise to bring.

This is a particularly pressing issue in the context of the demographic shift that the continent is experiencing. Europe’s population is ageing rapidly, while a slowdown in birth rates means that growth cannot be supported by future generations alone. By 2050, the number of over-85-year-olds in the EU-27 is expected to more than double, while the European workforce is projected to lose up to two million workers per year from 2040. Against the backdrop of these looming challenges, productivity growth will be all the more vital to achieve.

A costly cure
In his report, Draghi does not shy away from the difficult economic reality that Europe finds itself in. The situation, he acknowledges, is bleak, but is by no means hopeless. Alongside his analysis of the issues at hand, the former Central Bank chief sets out an ambitious plan to revitalise the European economy. His proposals are far-reaching and radical, and primarily centre around three main areas for action: closing the innovation gap with China and the US, maximising the benefits of decarbonisation and increasing security while reducing dependencies.

In this era of heightened geopolitical risk, Europe must reconsider its reliance on imports

These proposals cannot be achieved, he warns, without significant investment. In fact, Draghi says that the EU must increase spending by €800bn per year if it is to stand a chance of improving its economic fortunes in the long term. This represents approximately five percent of the bloc’s entire GDP, highlighting the scale of the challenges ahead. By contrast, the Marshall Plan recovery programme spent between one and two percent of GDP on rebuilding a decimated Europe, and propelled much of the continent beyond pre-war levels of growth. Unlike 1948, however, present-day Europe has no external backer. This time around, it will need to find the means to fund its own recovery. The question of cost is precisely where Draghi’s plan comes unstuck. In principle, his proposals are pragmatic, timely and potentially transformative. But the cost of implementing them may simply prove too high – particularly for those more skittish and risk-averse EU member states.

“The private sector is unlikely to be able to finance the lion’s share of this investment without public sector support,” Draghi acknowledges. “Some joint funding for investment in key European public goods, such as breakthrough innovation, will be necessary.”

But with the EU coffers conspicuously empty, common debt may be the only way to reach the scale of investment that Draghi is proposing.

This will be a hard sell in more frugal-minded nations such as Germany and the Netherlands, who have very little desire for more joint spending, and even less appetite for joint borrowing. Indeed, just three hours after Draghi’s report was released, the German Finance Minister Christian Lindner responded to these calls for more common debt by confirming that “Germany will not agree to this.”

The wake-up call
And it is not just the cost of the proposals that is causing jitters across the EU. Many of Draghi’s plans focus on deeper integration and closer collaboration across core areas such as defence, decarbonisation and the digital economy. While more co-ordinated activity in these areas would help Europe to exploit its size and its collective strengths, it may also require member states to give up some of their powers in the interest of shared objectives.

The gap in living standards between the EU and the US is widening

Until now, many EU countries have been very reluctant to cede powers of any kind, and have even dragged their feet over policy co-ordination. But this has resulted in the fragmented EU that exists today – hampered by excessive regulation and unnecessary duplication. Draghi’s report may just prove to be the wake-up call that the EU needs to finally tackle its current disjointed ways of working.

The scale of the challenge facing Europe is seemingly too immense for countries to tackle on their own. Geopolitically and economically, the EU is in near-crisis mode, and has perhaps never felt so divided on the key questions regarding its future. It is true, however, that a crisis can also be a catalyst for change – if leaders are able to seize the momentum and take a risk on far-reaching reforms. The cure for Europe’s ills may well prove pricey, but inaction could cost the continent a whole lot more.

A new paradigm for standing forests

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With this year’s global summits on biodiversity (COP16), climate change (COP29), and desertification (COP16) fast approaching, the consequences of the climate emergency are evident everywhere. Floods have ravaged Central Europe, super-typhoon Yagi has just struck Southeast Asia, and Hurricanes Helene and Milton have wreaked havoc in the southeastern United States. Hotter, drier conditions have created ideal conditions for wildfires like those that have raged across Brazil, South Africa, and Colombia, while droughts have pushed people into food insecurity this year in Africa.

If the scale and speed of our response to climate change are inadequate to the threat, this new normal will only get worse, jeopardising hard-won development gains in low- and middle-income countries. In addition to curbing emissions from burning fossil fuels, one of the biggest priorities must be to protect and conserve the world’s remaining tropical forests.

Tropical forests store significant amounts of carbon, and their demise would result in a massive 1 degree Celsius increase in global average temperatures, not to mention the loss of untold biodiversity and the depletion of ecosystem services such as atmospheric rivers that supply water to food crops around the world. Scientists warn that the degradation of several of these forests is approaching a tipping point where the remaining forest will be unable to sustain itself or recover.

Individuals, countries, and NGOs are stepping up to protect and preserve the world’s forests from devastation. But we will need a combination of economic and environmental solutions to address the complex, rapidly changing factors driving illegal deforestation.

The path to COP30
Fortunately, such solutions are at hand. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has already significantly curbed deforestation. Between August 2023 and July 2024, tropical forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon was cut by 46 percent, compared to the previous 12 months. And at the global level, Brazil, which holds the G20 presidency this year, has emphasised nature-based solutions to climate challenges as part of its agenda, paving the way for further progress at COP30 in Belém in 2025.

The TFFF aims to leverage sovereign and philanthropic funding to mobilise more private capital

For its part, the World Bank Group is supporting similar public and private efforts across developing economies. The goal is to design strong policies, build credible institutions, and mobilise investments in the infrastructure that is needed to conserve and manage forests sustainably. Making forest finance more widely available and more affordable is key.

The World Bank Group is also working to turn the vast potential of carbon markets into an income stream for developing countries that are committed to reducing emissions and conserving their forests. Already, 15 countries are benefiting from a pipeline that could produce more than 24 million carbon credits by the end of 2024 – a win for both the climate and development.

But those engaged in these efforts have long been dogged by the question of how to support the conservation of standing forests over the long term. While forest carbon markets have created new revenue streams, they usually reward only those countries, communities, or project developers that are focused on reducing their emissions from deforestation. Thus, forests that are not under immediate threat offer no financial reward.

Forest finance
One solution is the proposed Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a large-scale, performance-based mechanism that would use blended finance to generate financial returns and reward countries for protecting their standing forests. Instead of carbon credits, the TFFF would provide predictable long-term financial support linked to a country’s hectares of standing forests, thus aligning economic incentives with environmental outcomes.

Led by the Brazilian Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, and in partnership with other tropical-forest countries, developed economies, and non-traditional sponsors, the TFFF aims to leverage sovereign and philanthropic funding to mobilise more private capital, thus expanding forest finance beyond purely public-sector tools. Crucially, it would allow private investors to support a global public good by quantifying and verifying the underlying asset on terms aligned with their business models.

This is the kind of bold, innovative solution that we need if we want to make a real difference in the fight against climate change. One of the biggest advantages of the TFFF is that it is not expected to depend on scarce donor grants and recurrent replenishments. Instead, it would require a one-time, fully repayable investment from potential sponsors, who therefore would be presented with a conceptually novel development-aid model.

Those designing the TFFF are also studying how to simplify disbursement models (without any loss of rigor) through digital monitoring, reporting, and verification systems, and how to disburse enough annually to tip the scales away from deforestation. Finally, another important question that is coming into focus is how to improve access to such mechanisms for indigenous peoples, local communities, and other forest owners and stewards. The countries working on the TFFF intend to address these issues by COP30.

Forests are vital not just for the carbon they store, but also for their role in maintaining ecological balance, supporting environmental health, and promoting economic growth and human development. The period between COP16 in Cali and next year’s COP30 in Brazil could be the perfect time to launch the TFFF and set the stage for a new era in forest-conservation finance.

We must start properly rewarding countries that have controlled deforestation and redouble our efforts to conserve existing forests for future generations.

African ports struggle to embrace global trade boom

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The Middle East is on tenterhooks. A year after the breakout of the Israeli-Hamas war, the hostilities in the region are spreading fast. There are fears of an all-out war after Israel expanded its strikes and incursions into Lebanon and Syria and then Iran launched its first air strikes on Israel.

When the crisis broke out on October 7, 2023, the world held its breath hoping it would last for only a few months. However, the emerging reality is sending new waves of chills particularly down the spine of the global merchant shipping industry. So far, the industry has suffered unprecedented collateral damages, the primary of which is disruption to voyages in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most pivotal maritime straits.

For a year, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have been directing missile and drone attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, a critical conduit for 30 percent of the world’s container traffic valued at over $1trn. Over 80 vessels have been targeted, two of which were sunk by the attacks while four seafarers have succumbed. One vessel has also been seized. A US-led coalition has prevented more casualties by intercepting the missiles and drones while many have also failed to hit their targets.

The Houthis’ attacks have brought about a fundamental shift in global trade. Ships across all segments on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Atlantic trade lanes have been forced to avoid the Suez Canal and Bab El-Mandeb straits, diverting the shipping trajectory around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The impact for Egypt, which largely depends on the Suez Canal as a major source of foreign currency, has been devastating. In 2023 the canal had generated a record $9.4bn in revenue but over the past eight months, revenues have plunged by 60 percent, or more than $6bn.

Playing a bigger role
The Middle East crisis has come across like a blessing in disguise for African ports. To many, diversions through the Cape of Good Hope route was just what ports in the continent needed to play a bigger role in the global merchant shipping industry. The rerouting has seen ships travel longer distances, adding on average 14 days for a vessel sailing from China to Europe. The additional 11,000 nautical miles has not only disrupted global trade but has added operational costs for liners.

Africa must be conscious of the risk of overinvestments to avoid creating white elephants in the pursuit of short-term gains

Estimates show that each diversion adds approximately $1m in fuel costs, with more going towards insurance premiums and security measures. “The risks in the Red Sea are not short-term; they are now ingrained in shipping logistics forcing long-term adjustments,” says Bilal Bassiouni, Head of Risk Forecasting at South Africa-based Pangea-Risk. For African ports, especially those that are strategically located on the maritime route around the Cape of Good Hope, the Red Sea diversions should have presented an opportunity for a boom from offering restocking and bunkering services. Durban, Cape Town and Gqeberha in South Africa, Toamasina in Madagascar, Port Louis in Mauritius, Maputo in Mozambique and Walvis Bay in Namibia are among ports that have the potential to seize the moment.

Data show that over the six-month period to May, maritime trade through the Cape of Good Hope route had surged by a staggering 125 percent. The number of container ships and LNG tankers using the route was up by 260 percent and 180 percent respectively. Though not directly on the traditional shipping lanes connecting Asia with Europe, other major ports in Africa have also witnessed increased traffic. These include Mombasa in Kenya, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Beira in Mozambique.

“The Red Sea crisis is shining a light on the potential of African ports. It’s sparking crucial conversations about port development and modernisation,” observes George VanDyck, Lecturer at the Plymouth Business School, University of Plymouth. He adds that overall, African ports were caught off guard by the sudden surge in traffic.

For ports in the continent, myriad infrastructure and operational bottlenecks have made it impossible to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the crisis, particularly restocking and bunkering. Evidently, many ports struggle with outdated equipment, insufficient storage facilities and a shortage of skilled workers. Moreover, inadequate investment in expansions and development has resulted in inefficiencies that slow down operations, contributing to long wait times and congestion.

The malady facing ports in Africa is worsened by corruption, bureaucratic delays and inconsistent regulatory frameworks. Additionally, the high logistics costs and limited interconnectivity between ports and inland transport networks add layers of inefficiencies. As if that were not bad enough, lack of deep-water facilities means a majority of ports in the continent cannot accommodate larger vessels.

Unprecedented congestion
At the onset of the Red Sea attacks, the ports of Durban and Cape Town were prime examples of Africa’s deeply rooted infrastructural inadequacies and operational inefficiencies. A sharp increase in traffic by 328 percent over the period from December 2023 to March 2024 ignited unprecedented congestion at the two facilities, literally bringing operations to a standstill. Durban, South Africa’s biggest container seaport that handles approximately 60 percent of traffic, was the worst impacted. At one point, about 80 vessels were forced to wait offshore for weeks as the logjam crisis paralysed operations.

“South African ports seemingly lost their credibility in extending support services to vessels diverting through the Cape of Good Hope,” says Francois Vreÿ, Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Military Science at Stellenbosch University, South Africa. He adds that one critical area in which African ports have failed to rise to the occasion is on bunkering services.

Evidently, the increased sailing distance has given rise to a surge in demand for bunkering services. Ports like Port Louis, Walvis Bay and Maputo have tried to strategically position themselves as refuelling hubs. However, they have faced challenges in handling larger volumes, a situation compounded by shortages of fuel supplies and lack of proper refuelling facilities.

Durban, which historically stands as the largest bunkering hub in Southern Africa, was expected to reap maximum benefits from the bunkering boom. Granted, the port has made progress in expanding capacity. However, limited investments in advanced infrastructure and services have denied the port a competitive edge. Bad weather conditions characterised by storms, severe winds and high waves have worsened the situation.

“Although African ports along the Cape of Good Hope are increasingly seen as refuelling stops, they have not emerged as major bunkering hubs primarily due to operational deficiencies,” reckons Bassiouni. He adds that the logistical weaknesses have meant that the potential benefits of increased shipping traffic have been diluted across the continent.

Undoubtedly, the Red Sea attacks have presented Africa with a critical window to reassess maritime and logistic capabilities. In fact, the likelihood of an all-out war in the Middle East means the global merchant shipping industry is beginning to realise that it could be dependent on African ports for an indefinite period of time. Having largely missed the boat in the first ‘wave,’ the continent has the chance to tap future windfalls. “The opportunity lies in positioning African ports as essential shipping hubs in the global supply chain,” notes VanDyck.

For this to happen, African countries must prioritise investment in expanding port infrastructures, improving logistics networks and upgrading equipment to handle larger volumes of traffic. Besides, governments must improve the regulatory frameworks, strengthen regional co-operation and provide incentives for private sector involvement. Moreover, focusing on enhancing the integration of ports with railways and road networks is critical in guaranteeing better connectivity between ports and inland markets. The ripple effect is maximising economic benefits from increased global trade.

Granted, investing in port infrastructures is a pain the continent must be willing to bear. However, budgetary constraints and competing national interests mean that most governments cannot mobilise the required resources. South Africa, for instance, reckons that it requires a mindboggling $9.2bn to address the infrastructure woes plaguing its ports and rail network. Namibia, which has made significant offshore oil discoveries, needs $2bn to expand port infrastructures.

Floating loans
Inability to raise the massive resources is forcing governments to bring on board global operators not only to invest but also take over the running and management of ports with the sole objective of improving efficiency. Dubai-based DP World and Indian conglomerate Adani are among operators battling for port concessions in the continent. DP World, for instance, has committed to invest $3bn in the medium term on new port infrastructures across the continent.

Vreÿ contends that while port infrastructure investments are critical, Africa must be conscious of the risk of overinvestments to avoid creating white elephants in the pursuit of short-term gains. Kenya’s Lamu port offers a classic example of irrational port investment. While the government committed $367m to build the first three berths that were commissioned in 2021, the port that was expected to become a transshipment hub is today largely a white elephant. Since its commissioning, less than 70 vessels have called at the facility. “Focus should be on long-term and strategic investments that align with global shipping needs,” he notes.

By all accounts, port infrastructure investments form the cornerstone of Africa’s ability to compete on the global scale. This is more critical considering in the World Bank’s Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) 2023, none of the continent’s ports rank among the top 100. Somaliland’s Port of Berbera, Africa’s best performing, ranks at position 103 on the global scale.

While infrastructure remains critical, Africa must also reinforce maritime security to make ports more attractive. There is a long journey ahead for the continent’s ports, but addressing these factors could propel them to the forefront of global maritime trade.

Pandemics and economics: The price of being unprepared

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The world is on the verge of Disease X pandemic outbreak. Yes, the sound of it may pass as the stuff that can only be found in science-fiction blockbuster movies or bestseller novels. It also has the potential to cause panic, even anger. Yet, the World Health Organisation (WHO), which has increasingly been talking about Disease X, together with scientists and the entire medical fraternity, are in agreement that it is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ the world will face Disease X.

For now, Disease X remains a codename coined by the WHO in 2018. It mainly refers to some currently unknown infectious pathogen that is capable of causing a pandemic. By and large, Disease X is a warning to the world. This emanates from the fact that a known pathogen, an unknown one, or a newly discovered pathogen has the potential to ignite a disease outbreak with devastating impacts on a scale greater than Covid-19. For that reason, the world must be prepared for Disease X, which is inevitable and whose fatalities could be more than 20 times compared to Covid-19. Climate change, human interactions with animals and disruption of their habitats, poverty, civil conflicts and global travel are some of the factors cited over their high likelihoods to ignite the next pandemic.
“Some people say this may create panic,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in January in Davos, Switzerland. “No. History has taught us that we must anticipate new threats. Failing to prepare leaves the world prepared to fail.”

Already, experts are predicting that over the next decade, the likelihood of another outbreak on the scale of Covid-19 is one in four. Predicting which pathogen will spur the next major outbreak, its origination, or how dire the consequences will be, is near impossible. However, the fact that humans continue to coexist with infectious pathogens means outbreaks are certain to occur. Yet, despite being caught flat-footed by Covid-19 in 2020, the world is doing horrendously badly in terms of preparedness. “I don’t think the world is doing enough to prevent and to prepare for the next pandemic,” says Gavin Yamey, Professor of Global Health and Public Policy at Duke University, Durham, US.

Failing to prepare leaves the world prepared to fail

Granted, the world has largely measured the impacts of epidemics and pandemics on human fatalities and overwhelming stretches on health and medical infrastructures and systems. However, recent reality has shown that depending on the magnitude, disease outbreaks can cripple economies and impoverish societies, even those of advanced and developed nations. As evidenced by Covid-19, a cough in a remote village has the potential to instigate global economic shutdown. The effects on key sectors of the economy like travel and tourism, manufacturing, construction, retail, and foreign direct investments (FDIs) among others is nothing short of catastrophic.

Pathogens of the past
Epidemics and pandemics are not a new phenomenon. For centuries, the world has grappled with disease outbreaks that often leave a trail of unprecedented deaths and socio-economic ruin. Over the past century or so, the Spanish Flu of 1918–20, a strain of the H1N1 virus, remains the deadliest pandemic. The virus is believed to have infected 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population at that time, and caused between 30 million and 100 million deaths worldwide. In comparison, both World War I and II combined resulted in the deaths of roughly 77 million people; an indication that the flu pandemic was one of the worst catastrophes of the 20th century.

The global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, which was detected in the early 1980s, has been another major killer. The virus that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has infected more than 84 million people and killed about 40 million. Though epidemics and pandemics have been part of human existence, the frequency of outbreaks and their devastating impacts have fast emerged as reasons for concerns. Just when the world is taking stock of the Covid-19 pandemic, viruses like influenza A subtype H5N1 and Mpox (monkeypox) are spreading fast in different regions across the globe, particularly in the US and Africa.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reckon the current overall individual and population health risk to the general public posed by the H5N1 virus presently spreading in poultry, cows and other mammals remains low. However, the country must remain vigilant with possibilities of increased infections with the onset of cooler temperatures. This year, a total of 14 human cases have been reported.

On its part, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) contends that Mpox is fast becoming a burden to the continent. By mid-September, at least 15 countries had cases of Mpox infection. Overall, a total of 29,152 cases were reported between January and September, representing an increase of 177 percent compared to the same period last year. During the period, there were 738 deaths. Other diseases like Ebola, Zika, Dengue, Cholera, Yellow fever, Meningitis, Rift Valley Fever, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) among others continue to wreak havoc in economies, particularly of poor and developing nations.

A cough in a remote village has the potential to instigate global economic shutdown

“The extent to which these diseases are threatening globally depends on the ability of the diseases to spread and the willingness and capabilities of policymakers to react in order to reduce the spread,” states Klaus Prettner, Professor of Economics at the Vienna University of Economics and Business in Austria. He adds that considering the current generation had not experienced a global pandemic related to a new disease where almost everybody got infected before Covid-19, the world may have felt overly secure. “Extrapolating from past experience to future events, which is what humans tend to do, is prone to fail us with such low-probability, high-impact events,” he notes.

Bizarrely, it took the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) for the world view on pandemics to change. Assumptions that disease outbreaks were far-apart occurrences that lacked the ability to shake the world like natural calamities including earthquakes, floods or even war now seems imprudent. “The pandemic was a global disaster. We learned a great deal about how to respond to the next pandemic,” observes Scott Fulford, a senior economist at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a US government agency responsible for consumer protection in the financial sector.

A wake-up call
That Covid-19 turned the world on its head is indisputable. When the first case of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus two (SARS-CoV-2) was detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the world could not have predicted the sequence of events that followed. It was unparalleled to anything witnessed in human existence in recent history. While the events of 2020 remain engraved in the minds of many, the overall impacts of Covid-19 will be felt for years to come. WHO estimates show that as of January 2024, the virus had infected more than 700 million people and claimed the lives of seven million worldwide.

On the socio-economic front, the impacts have been colossal. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the cumulative economic loss over the 2020–24 period stands in excess of $13.8trn. Worse still, the pandemic has set back progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by decades, across all areas. Though economic rebound across the globe has been swift and laudable, for poor and developing nations, emerging from the abyss of Covid-19 devastation is projected to take years.

The US offers a classic pointer of the destructive impacts of Covid-19. Government statistics indicate over 1.1 million people have died as a result of the disease, with the economic losses being in the range of $3.7trn. At the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, the US economy lost 23 million jobs and sunk into a recession. Other economic ravages cut across heightened inflation, supply chains were disrupted, trade was crippled, stock markets crashed and businesses – particularly small and medium enterprises – shut down.

Overall, the Covid-19 damages were the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. In fact, the US economy contracted faster in the second quarter of 2020 than it did during the Great Depression. With a gross domestic product (GDP) plunge of 32.9 percent on an annualised basis, it was the worst drop ever.

The ravages were not any less across the globe. In China, the pandemic caused the deaths of 1.4 million people with lockdowns instigating a 6.8 percent shrink in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020. The country however saw a rebound to post a 2.3 percent growth during the year, the only large economy to post positive growth. Africa, which was lucky to experience relatively lower death rates from Covid-19, suffered a pandemic-induced contraction of 1.6 percent in 2020. At the global scale, the global economy posted a contraction of three percent.

Though by and large the US was a mirror of the devastating economic impacts of Covid-19, the global superpower response was nothing short of remarkable. In fact, it set the tone for post-pandemic recovery. Fulford, who has authored a book – The Pandemic Paradox: How the Covid Crisis Made Americans More Financially Secure – largely considers Covid-19 to have been a blessing in disguise for the US economy. “US economic policy protected individual households financially. Overall financial wellbeing improved for most Americans even though unemployment was high. Most other countries have not recovered nearly as well,” he notes.

For the US, a $5.2trn economic stimulus package over the two-year period from March 2020 to March 2022 was the magical pill. Granted, it was the largest aid given outside wartime and was also five times larger than the response to the Great Recession. The stimulus was critical in preventing the economic coma from causing individual harm. In essence, job losses did not hurt households, which were doing well financially due to government support. Having arrested individual impact, pandemic policy focused on ensuring economic recovery. Billions of dollars were directed to nearly every small business. Although some businesses did not need the aid, it prevented shutdowns on a large scale. In fact, it did not take long for businesses to start hiring again.

“Pandemic policies mitigated the economic and social disaster,” avers Fulford. He adds the proactive response by the then President Donald Trump administration substantially reduced the pandemic’s economic costs to the point where the country’s GDP per person swiftly recovered to its pre-pandemic trend by 2023. “The US patched together a mostly adequate safety net during the pandemic, which it does not have in normal times. The safety net kept the economic decline from spiraling further,” he notes, adding that another critical measure was ensuring that financial markets did not nosedive into a prolonged crisis to ensure firms could access credit and capital to adjust to the pandemic and reopen quickly.

Economic immune response
Economists reckon the resilience of the global economy has been nothing short of impressive. Evidently, most economies are on a stellar growth trajectory post-pandemic. This is largely due to the adjustment mechanisms of modern market-based economies that thrive on demand and supply. Over the past three years, inflation has recorded a drastic downward spiral while GDP growth has accelerated. The IMF forecasts a global growth of 3.2 percent this year and a moderate acceleration of 3.3 percent in 2025, an indication of recovery.

“Although economies bounced back after Covid-19, the cumulative income losses over time were rather large and the public expenditures that had been enacted during the pandemic have stretched public finances of many countries rather severely,” says Prettner. The pain has been particularly excruciating for poor nations that are not only grappling with squeezed resources to finance development projects but are also feeling the intensity of public debts. In Africa, for instance, the stock of external debt stood at a staggering $1.15trn by end of last year. This year, the continent is paying $163bn just to service debts, up sharply from $61bn in 2010.

The unavoidability of Disease X means the world must prepare. Experts highlight that it costs a tiny fraction of money and resources to prepare for future outbreaks than to react. Despite Covid-19 lessons, the world is back on default mode and little is being done in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). According to Yamey, countries need to strengthen their basic public health capacities including surveillance, case detection and contact tracing. When the next pandemic hits, and while the world waits for vaccines and treatments to be developed, these are bound to be vital. In fact, lives will be saved by basic measures such as testing, contact tracing, isolation of infected individuals, quarantining of those exposed, and social and financial support for those isolating and quarantining.

“We are massively under-investing in development of pandemic medical countermeasures like vaccines, treatments and diagnostics. We also need to ensure that the manufacture of these control tools is globalised, so that all regions will become self-sufficient in making and distributing the tools when a crisis hits,” he explains.

The understanding that PPR could be at the core of preventing widespread adverse socio-economic destruction of the next pandemic has prompted the WHO to demand action. The global body, together with the World Bank, contends that governments in low and middle-income countries in collaboration with donors need to invest $31.1bn annually in PPR. A total of $26.4bn must be invested at the country level and $4.7bn at the international level. Tragically, raising the massive resources is a tall order. For most countries, it is highly unlikely they would meet their national PPR financing requirements.

In July, Yamey together with two other experts published a study on the feasibility of low and middle-income countries to mobilise the exponential resources. The study contends that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37 percent of their total health spending on PPR annually. Lower-middle income countries on their part must invest nine percent while upper-middle income countries would be required to invest one percent. On the same level, donors would need to allocate on average eight percent of their total official development assistance across all sectors to PPR annually to meet their target.

Putting a price on life
“It should be a no-brainer to set aside such an amount to be prepared for the next health crisis. However, we all know how political processes work and that, without immediate threats, it is usually very difficult to mobilise appropriate resources even though this would be the rational thing to do,” observes Prettner.

It took the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) for the world view on pandemics to change

Africa is a typical case on just how near impossible it is to mobilise PPR resources. The Africa CDC reckons that it requires $599m to combat the Mpox outbreak. So far, it has only secured financial commitments to the tune of $314m. Notably, commitments do not often translate to disbursements. While it also requires 10 million doses of vaccines, it has only managed to secure 4.3 million doses. Inability to mobilise resources to effectively respond to the epidemic is bound to hurt economic activity and weaken fiscal metrics. Apart from draining squeezed resources, the disease has the potential to disrupt supply chains, strain the ever-sensitive tourism sector and deter FDIs, among other impacts.

“Fiscal metrics would also be affected, with weaker economic activity depressing tax revenues, and higher government spending on healthcare and epidemic-prevention measures,” states ratings agency Fitch. It adds that while international assistance could mitigate the effects, timing and size remains uncertain.

When it comes to combating disease outbreaks, rich and developed nations have often come under criticism for being aloof if an epidemic does not have direct impacts on their populations and economies. The 2014–15 Ebola outbreak that resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths in West Africa is a case in point. Among the three badly hit countries – namely Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – an estimated $2.2bn in GDP was lost while progress on SDGs was significantly reversed. Overall, the combined direct economic burden and the indirect social impact was estimated at $54bn. Despite the ravages, international assistance was not only slow in coming, it was also exasperatingly inadequate.

Globally, the consensus is that one effective strategy to combat epidemics and pandemics and prevent their destructive socio-economic impacts lies in vaccine development. In the case of Covid-19, vaccine development was fast and swift. It took less than a year for the first vaccine, mRNA from Pfizer/BioNTech, to be approved. Others followed in record time. The rapid rollout of Covid-19 vaccines is hailed for saving over 14 million lives across 185 countries in just their first year.

The next pandemic
For the world, preparing for the next pandemic in terms of vaccine development has become paramount. The Norway-headquartered Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) has been laying down the foundations to guarantee the world’s ability to respond to the next Disease X with a new vaccine in just 100 days. The mission has been criticised by some as impossibly far-fetched. CEPI, however, contends that although ambitious, the goal is technologically within reach with the collaboration of all stakeholders.

“Economically, it is about being prepared to make large, bold investments to speed up the building of our defences against emerging threats, even when many of those investments will not pay off,” says Richard Hatchett, CEPI Chief Executive Officer.

On developing vaccines, we already have a head start. This emanates from the fact that there are around 260 viruses known today that can infect humans. The 260 or so viruses belong to roughly 25 viral families. Despite this knowledge, the question of when and which form the next pandemic will take remains a mystery. To resolve these questions, researchers are turning to artificial intelligence (AI). So far, AI-based tools have been developed that can help predict new viral variants before they emerge and act as early warning systems. One of the tools is EVEscape, developed by the University of Oxford and Harvard Medical School.

The problem with pandemics and vaccines, however, lies in inequitable distribution. A recent study shows that with nearly 11 billion doses of the Covid-19 vaccine being administered, stark differences in the vaccination rates persist. Over the initial stages of vaccine rollouts, about 80 percent of people in high-income countries were vaccinated.

For low-income nations, only 10 percent were lucky to access the vaccines. “While admitting there was much unfairness to the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, rich countries’ research investments in developing and deploying vaccines have immense spillovers for poorer countries,” states Fulford. He adds that poor countries can only take advantage of vaccines if they have the public health infrastructure to deliver them.

While the world is gradually recovering from the devastating impacts of Covid-19, the lessons learned should not be ignored. The inevitability of future pandemics, particularly the looming threat of Disease X, calls for urgent and sustained investment in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR).

The global economy has proven resilient, but the next pandemic could be even more catastrophic without proactive measures. Governments, health institutions, and global stakeholders must prioritise early detection, vaccine development, and equitable distribution of resources to prevent future socio-economic disasters. The time to act is now, before we are again caught unprepared.

Argentina’s libertarianism gamble, has it worked?

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One hundred years ago, Argentina, a country blessed with vast natural resources, was arguably one of the wealthiest nations in the world. But after the Great Depression, successive governments embarked on unsustainable, populist spending strategies which have resulted in years of political and economic instability, aggravated by corruption, record inflation and the country becoming the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) biggest debtor (see Fig 1).

With a repressed economy and 57.4 percent of the population (27 million people) living in poverty, the country was crying out for change. Enter revolutionary, libertarian, economics professor, Javier Milei.
“We are the only political force with a specific plan to end inflation, unemployment, health problems, education, food, housing and all the debts Argentine democracy owes the Argentines,” Milei announced.

But what is libertarianism? According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, libertarianism is “a political philosophy that takes individual liberty to be the primary political value.” In other words, people are free to make choices about their own lives and are solely responsible for the choices that they make. And the basic foundations on which libertarianism sits are “private property, markets free from state intervention, free competition, and the division of labour and social cooperation, in which success is achieved only by serving others with goods of better quality or at a better price.”

Implementing a drastic vision
Milei’s election manifesto focused on drastic reforms aimed at ending Argentina’s economic instabilities, specifically completely overhauling the state, cutting public spending by 15 percent of GDP and slashing taxes, ‘dollarising’ the economy to stabilise inflation and abolishing the central bank, shutting down or privatising state-run companies and bodies that he argued “serve as shelters for people receiving salaries without contributing meaningful work,” and cutting red tape for businesses.

Positioning himself as an outsider, this anti-establishment rhetoric resonated strongly with the disillusioned electorate, especially those outside the major metropolitan areas, who felt neglected by the political elites and were fed up with the status quo and the legacy policies of former President, Juan Perón. They saw Milei’s vow to dismantle a “corrupt and inefficient state” and his promises of drastic economic reform as a beacon of hope against soaring inflation and declining standards of living. While his victory was overwhelming, winning in 21 out of the 24 provinces, and beating his nearest rival by 55.7 percent to 44.3 percent, demographically, his support varied. For younger voters who felt their future was being put at risk by the ongoing economic crisis, his libertarian, free market ideas were particularly appealing, with the strongest support coming from younger men, along with considerable support from middle- and upper-class voters. However, the female electorate were less supportive, as many were more concerned about his socially conservative stances on issues like abortion.

Painfully slow progress
But after a year in office, has much changed? Unfortunately, not yet. Economies are not like Broadway productions, and despite a change in government, no star will be born and nothing miraculous will happen overnight, however radical the promises. That said, days after his inauguration, Milei set to work reducing the size of the state and tackling the country’s fiscal challenges which he saw as vital to achieving his goal of a budget surplus.

On the fiscal front, he reduced the number of cabinet ministries from 18 to nine, devalued the peso by 54 percent, cut 30,000 public jobs, slashed state subsidies for fuel and transport, and suspended all new public works contracts. This resulted in a Q1 2024 budget surplus of 275bn pesos ($284m), the first since 2008, and one that amounted to 0.2 percent of GDP. At time of writing, Argentina had recorded a government budget surplus for every month in 2024. And while Milei has, for the time being, had to scale back on his election promises to dollarise the economy and abolish Argentina’s central bank, these fiscal moves have also been supported by the IMF, who have released $4.7bn in loans.

Additionally, this shift to more conservative economic policies has encouraged investor confidence, with Argentina’s international bonds due in 2041 rising by seven percent immediately after his election, and, at the index level gaining 60 percent by March 2024.

The currency devaluation and austerity measures have contributed to sinking the economy further into depression

When he took office, Milei did warn that things were likely to get worse before they got better, and despite these apparent initial successes, he has still faced significant challenges in his first year. Core inflation rate peaked at 300 percent in March 2024, and even with subsequent monthly drop-offs, still remains over 200 percent.

Poverty rates have increased significantly, with the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos Republica Argentina (INDEC) reporting that over 60 percent of Argentines now live in poverty, up from 41.3 percent in the second half of 2023, with the cost of a total basic basket (CBT), food and non-food essentials, seeing a year-on-year increase of 230.1 percent, according to August 2024 figures. And if that wasn’t enough, the currency devaluation and austerity measures have contributed to sinking the economy further into depression, with government figures released in September showing a third quarterly contraction.

Frustrated with Milei’s cuts to welfare programmes and the closure of public services, such as the state news agency, and with no end to their suffering, Argentina has seen widespread social, and sometimes violent unrest, particularly from marginalised communities and left-wing groups.

Constant challenges of opposition
But Milei and his policies are not solely to blame. A lack of support from hostile lawmakers in both houses of the Argentine government has been the biggest roadblock to his planned reforms. For while he won the presidential vote handsomely, his party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), won only 15 percent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and just seven out of the 72 seats in the Senate.

Ten days after taking office, in December 2023, he issued an emergency decree (DNU 70/2023), to fast-track the changes he considered necessary to “consolidate economic stability” by side-stepping the Chamber of Deputies, although it still required Senate approval. The decree contained over 300 law amendments including facilitating the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, deregulating energy, transportation, healthcare, and other sectors, abolishing price control, and removing workers’ rights (including their right to strike). This sparked large-scale protests from the electorate, along with a fierce legal and political backlash. The Senate rejected DNU 70/2023 in March 2024, with Milei arguing that senators were more concerned with protecting their own interests rather than improving Argentina’s prospects, and insisting the decree remain in force unless it was rejected by the lower house, or declared unconstitutional by the courts.

In contrast, his Omnibus Bill, also introduced in December 2023, was a much broader legislative reform package, with over 600 articles that sought to codify Milei’s reforms aimed at overhauling Argentina’s economy through deregulation, privatisation and fiscal discipline. It sparked intense debate, and in its initial form was rejected by both chambers. It also prompted a 12-hour general strike in Buenos Aires in January 2024 just 45 days into Milei’s presidency, to protest against the proposed reforms, coordinated by the umbrella union, the General Confederation of Labour (CGT). Following significant revisions, the bill passed through the Chamber of Deputies in late April, and although it remained focused on reducing the state’s role in the economy, aligning with Milei’s libertarian philosophy, the number of articles were reduced to just over 300 and some of the measures were softened, especially those involving the labour market. However, negotiations continued in the Senate amid a volatile political climate, which led to a political stand-off. To gather support, Milei introduced the May Pact, a 10-point agreement promising further tax reforms and fiscal balance across the provinces. The Senate finally passed the slimmed-down Omnibus Bill in June, and the May Pact was finally signed in July.

In September, Milei set out his 2025 budget proposals. Built around a zero-deficit approach to stabilise the economy, it focused on understanding how much money is available before allocating funds, but to achieve this he also proposed significant cuts to public spending, particularly on social programmes and subsidies, which sparked concern from opposition parties and social groups. The budget also forecast a dramatic drop of annual inflation from the current 230 percent to 18.3 percent by the end of 2025, with monthly inflation dropping to one percent, along with a five percent GDP growth forecast for 2025, despite Argentina currently being in recession. The administration believes these austerity measures and fiscal discipline will help the economy recover faster.

Don’t cry for Milei, Argentina
Opposing parties have strongly criticised the proposals, accusing Milei of further hurting the working class with significant public spending cuts, while investors have responded cautiously to the proposal with many viewing it as a step towards restoring market confidence in Argentina. But public reaction has been mixed. While Milei’s supporters back the proposals, there is widespread concern about the social impact of big spending cuts.

Overall, in his first year, Milei has made significant waves with his libertarian agenda, but with no government majority, has faced considerable resistance from opposing parties. Unfortunately, his early popularity with the electorate has also waned, resulting in public discontent. For the people of Argentina change cannot come fast enough, and hopefully, given the chance, Milei’s reforms will have the desired effect, and things will indeed, get better.

Can Bretton Woods adapt to a changing world?

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When Russia invaded Ukraine in the winter of 2022, it immediately exposed once again the limitations of the two global institutions – the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank – that are supposed to coordinate policies to deal with the resulting economic crisis. In the wake of the attack the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, also a former chairwoman of the US Fed, warned that the defeat of Russia requires measures that the IMF and World Bank may not be able to apply: “We will need to modernise our existing institutions – the IMF and the multi-lateral development banks – so that they are fit for the 21st century where challenges and risks are increasingly global.”

A key figure in the Biden administration, Yellen was referring to a whole host of challenges such as sanctions against Russia, intensifying trade disputes, big-power rivalry that is creating geopolitical tensions and, perhaps most concerning of all, the decline of the 80-year-old Bretton Woods institutions that were originally designed for exactly this purpose. Bretton Woods was instrumental in rescuing a world devastated by wars, incompetent governance and geopolitical confusion. As Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, pointed out earlier this year: “In 1944 the IMF was forged from the ruins of two world wars. In the decades leading to our creation, populism had swept over much of the globe and the old world order was in chaos. After Bretton Woods, the world saw dramatic increases in global integration and wellbeing for which the IMF played a key role.”

Bretton Woods was born in July 1944 when delegates from 44 nations, led by the US and the UK, met in New Hampshire for what was known as the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. Out of the rubble they created a new economic order based on international coordination for the purpose of reconstruction and growth. Hence the birth of the IMF and World Bank.

Yet as Georgieva explains, here we are again: “Eighty years later the global economy is once again in a moment of significant turmoil as countries recover from the pandemic and conflict has flared across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.” And in the middle of all this the looming issue is whether the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs) are up to the task in a much bigger, much more complex global economy. And if not, what is the alternative?

“Today we face many of the same challenges as we did at the time of our inception,” summarises Georgieva. “Yet again, in Europe a military power has invaded a neighbour – and flares of regional wars add to global risks. Yet again, populism and protectionism are on the rise. On top of that, we are grappling with global mega-trends such as climate change and the demographic transition, as well as disruptive technologies such as AI and digital currencies.”

Global economic fragmentation
Most economists agree that the world is splintering into ‘global economic fragmentation’ (GEF) at the very time that it needs the opposite. In technical terms GEF is seen as a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration that threatens capital flows to low-income countries, hinders innovation in emerging markets, and discourages cooperation on international crises. In other words, we are going backwards by focusing inwards.
“In our increasingly fragmented world, nations have focused on reshoring essential goods and supply chains, including minerals crucial for green technologies, semiconductors, and military hardware due to concerns over national security and geopolitical motives,” explains the IMF, which is grappling with the threat of its own irrelevance. “In immediate terms the effects are seen in higher import prices, segmented markets, diminished access to technology and labour, reduced productivity, and lower living standards,” the IMF states.

Bretton Woods was instrumental in rescuing a world devastated by wars, incompetent governance and geopolitical confusion

The triggers of this fragmentation are tariffs, subsidies, currency wars, protectionism, industrial policies and sanctions. Between them, they are stifling the globalised trade that would help rescue the situation. In short, countries are taking sides and pulling in different directions. The result is a general undermining of the very global financial stability that is the raison d’etre of Bretton Woods.

As a result many countries face the threat of declining wealth. As recent research shows, advanced economies and emerging markets could face permanent losses of up to four percent of gross domestic product. The consequences? Debt crises, social instability, and food insecurity, with the most vulnerable nations being the worst hit.

In hard numbers, according to a recent IMF paper, the spread of GEF could add up to a long-term decline of up to seven percent in global economic output. The price of that would be catastrophic, estimated at about $7.4trn.

A crossroads situation
It may be a much-used word, but economists are in no doubt that we face another crossroads, without being anywhere near to agreeing a Bretton Woods-type solution. “Looking forward, we can choose the path of instability and confrontation. Or we can choose the path of cooperation and shared prosperity,” concluded Georgieva.

But is reform of the BWIs possible? According to macro-economist Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou of Washington DC’s American University and leader of the Atlantic Council’s Bretton Woods 2.0 Project, the IMF and the World Bank face “existential challenges.” For proof he cites a formidable list comprising the emergence of new players, game-changing new technologies such as AI, and two decades of financial and social upheavals in the form of the Great Financial Crisis, devastations wrought by Covid, and the enormous problems posed by climate change, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. And as non-western economists regularly point out, at least two of these scourges – climate change and the GFC – started in the west.

One of the problems, argues Mohseni-Cheraghlou, is that power in BWIs lies in the wrong hands. That is, the leadership is firmly anchored with the US, Group of Seven and EU at a time when “economies that are not part of the high-income club are playing an increasingly large role in global trade and finance.” In hard numbers, the EU and US control about 40 percent of votes even though “their relative prominence in the global economy has eroded.” And Chinese researchers would agree, citing how China has been repeatedly blocked from a role in the BWIs that, they argue, is commensurate with the country’s undoubted economic might. Political scientist Qin Yaqing, a professor at Shandong University, insists that what he calls “US hegemony” of these institutions must be replaced by a global governance system that is “multi-level, multi-issue, and multi-organisational.” In common with Beijing, he actually believes in economic fragmentation because it suits China better. It would allow China to “operate nimbly across regions, issues, and organisations, and choose allies to achieve various objectives. Ultimately, the fragmentation of global governance institutions would further realise the demise of the previous hegemonic order,” he argues.

Belt and Road project
Needless to say, most western countries and several Asian ones are extremely nervous of an increasingly militant and assertive China assuming a dominant role in a post-Bretton world. In fact, they are already halfway there. As American political scientists point out, China’s Belt and Road project has pulled many countries into Beijing’s net. Of the 24 members of the UN who voted not to condemn Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, two were Russia and North Korea, as would be expected, but the other 22 are all beneficiaries of Belt and Road. Perhaps more revealing of China’s own hegemony among the more disaffected nations, no fewer than 49 of the 58 who abstained from voting are also part of the Belt and Road.

We can choose the path of instability and confrontation. Or we can choose the path of co-operation and shared prosperity

Looking forward, the IMF and World Bank must now work with a much more complex world of international financing because their own pockets are nowhere near deep enough. As Yellen explains, “experts put the funding needs in the trillions, and we have so far been working in billions.”

On the bright side there is a host of new lenders out there such as state-led development finance institutions, regional multi-lateral development banks, sovereign wealth funds and pension funds. At the last count there were, for instance, over 40 multi-lateral development banks and financial institutions, while the number of purely national development banks has jumped to at least 50. There are also no fewer than 130 sovereign wealth funds deploying $12trn between them. Public pension funds boast $24trn in global assets while the private pension funds have $42trn of assets in their coffers.

Additionally, in the last 80 years the number and financial power of multi-national corporations has exploded. As Mohseni-Cheraghlou notes, they “command economic and technological might larger than many countries.” In hard numbers the multi-nationals account for nearly one-third of global GDP and a quarter of global employment. Consider that in 2023 the revenue of just one of the multi-nationals, Walmart, was larger than the GDP of over 170 countries.

In summary, Bretton Woods was designed for a different era and desperately needs to be modernised to cope with this new and infinitely more complex one. The institutions have adroitly navigated storms before, for example the Nixon administration’s abolition of the gold standard in 1971 that was a huge shock to the system.

Yet quite apart from what one economist called “intractable geopolitical tensions,” there is a lot on the Bretton Woods table. Economists sum up a few of them: an unfair global tax system, a fire-fighting role in crises such as Covid (Yellen believes the response to the GFC was “too timid and short-lived”), the rapid mobilisation of capital to support developing countries, and reform of the World Trade Organisation (China favours regional trading blocs that help it circumvent WTO rules). Altogether, it is a huge package and one that will test the twin pillars of Bretton Woods to the limit.

Unfinished business at the World Trade Organization

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Governing the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is not a job for the faint-hearted. Each of the past six WTO director generals has a story to tell, which often is not pleasant. When he opted to walk away before the end of his second term, Brazil’s Roberto Azevêdo, who led the organisation from 2013 to 2020, had a difficult time trying to explain his decision. Few bought his explanation that centred on allowing the WTO General Council ample time and clarity in selecting his successor. To most, he caved in due to extreme pressure, particularly from the US. Under then President Donald Trump, the US had done a good job in amplifying assertions that the WTO was an irrelevant body.

Today, the clouds are yet again gathering and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, current and seventh WTO Director-General, is not sitting pretty. To observers, Okonjo-Iweala has enjoyed a rather smooth time in office since taking over the leadership of the multilateral trading system in March 2021. Though she has presided over a period with less noise and fewer attacks directed at the WTO, on achievements the jury is still out. “She has done her best in a very difficult political context,” Victor Crochet, a senior associate at the Belgium-based law firm Van Bael & Bellis told World Finance. Having made history by becoming the first female and first African to head the global trade watchdog, Okonjo-Iweala’s first term is set to come to an end on August 31, 2025. The Africa Group, one of the five United Nations regional groups, has already fronted her for a second term. She has obliged, stating she still has “unfinished business.” Among them is overseeing the operationalisation of an agreement on ending fisheries subsidies, achieving a breakthrough in global agriculture negotiations, reforming the WTO’s struggling dispute settlements system and decarbonising trade. “For my second term, I intend to focus on delivering,” Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters in September.

A decorated CV
In seeking a second term, Okonjo-Iweala has the head start of incumbency. Also, a competitor is yet to emerge. During a WTO General Council meeting in July, 58 members encompassing the 44 African Group voiced their willingness to support her reappointment and sought for the expediting of the selection process.

Many have praised her down-to-earth demeanour, hard work and achievements during her first term. If no member objects and no other candidate emerges, she could secure a second term by the end of the year.

Apart from incumbency, the Nigerian economist, who in 2019 also took out US citizenship, boasts of a decorated and rich curriculum vitae. She is also a trailblazer on many fronts. When she turned 70 in June this year, many could not fail to admire her inspiring journey that started in the dusty village of Ogwashi-Uku in Delta State, Nigeria and which was greatly shaped by her academic parents’ value for education. Both had PhDs, her father’s being in economics. Years later, she would follow the same path. “I was taught that education is a privilege, not a right. And education is not for you to enrich yourself, but to see how you can enrich others,” she told David de Ferranti, author of Reformers in International Development: Five Remarkable Lives, a book that traces Okonjo-Iweala’s life and career from childhood to the present day.

Strong belief in the transformative power of education saw Okonjo-Iweala traverse the corridors of Ivy League universities in the US like a colossus. She holds a bachelor’s in economics (magna cum laude) from Harvard University and a doctoral degree in regional economics and development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). For the mother of four who tightly holds to the virtue of humility, the plenitude of accolades is awe-inspiring. She is the recipient of 21 honorary degrees, has been listed in Forbes Top 100 Most Powerful Women in the World for seven consecutive years, twice named by TIME as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in the World and once by the Financial Times as one of the 25 most influential women.

Okonjo-Iweala can take pride in a long career serving a retinue of companies and organisations. However, her long tenure at the World Bank and in public service in Nigeria stands out in adequately preparing and equipping her for the WTO top job. At the World Bank, where she spent 25 years as a development economist rising to the number two position of managing director, operations, her achievements remain remarkable. Part of them included spearheading several initiatives to assist low-income countries, managing to mobilise $50bn in grants and low interest credit in 2010.

In Nigeria, serving two times as finance minister under presidents Olusegun Obasanjo (2003–06) and Goodluck Jonathan (2011–15) are among the brightest feathers in her illustrious career. As the first woman to hold the position, her unwavering determination to clean the country’s rotten macroeconomic sphere was heroic. Among her greatest achievements was leading a team that negotiated for the wiping out of $30bn of external debt, including the outright cancellation of a whopping $18bn.

Streamlining the management of public coffers by enhanced transparency and fighting corruption was another key accomplishment. Part of the cleaning involved dismantling oil cartels that were siphoning money through dubious oil accounts. Okonjo-Iweala told de Ferranti that while auditing $11bn of oil accounts, it emerged that $2.5bn was fraudulent. The government refused to pay and the cartels did not take it kindly. They kidnapped her 83-year old mother, a medical doctor and retired professor of sociology. “That was a very challenging moment because to think you will be the agent of your parent’s demise, it is a very tough thing to bear,” she recounted.

Second term landmines
The chilling ordeal of her mother’s kidnapping is long past. Yet, the renowned development economist is facing a tribulation of a different kind – securing another term at the helm of the WTO. It goes without saying that the main reason the African Group had been pushing for an early start to the selection process was the US elections. With Trump back on centre stage there is consternation that history is about to repeat itself. During his first term in office, Trump’s administration tried to block Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment. And on the campaign trail, that concluded with his success, the Republican Party candidate had not changed his loathing for the WTO, an organisation that he has repeatedly termed as “horrible” and whose rules he openly disregarded as president with unilateral tariffs and attacks on its dispute settlement system.

Under the Joe Biden administration, the WTO has repeatedly been at loggerheads with the US largely due to the dispute settlements system. Based on the fact that it loses disputes too often, the US has continuously blocked the filling of vacancies of the WTO’s Appellate Body, the highest adjudicating organ under the watchdog’s enforcement function.

“The WTO is not apt at finding political consensus and solutions to tricky situations. It is much better at technical issues,” Crochet tells World Finance. He adds that with current political and economic tensions, it is unlikely that an agreement on reforming the dispute settlements system could be achieved without an overhaul of the substantive rules themselves. In essence, the standoff is bound to be prolonged indefinitely, to the chagrin of a majority of members. The ripple effect is not just a loss of confidence but gives credence to critics who hold the global body is gravitating towards losing irrelevance.

Relevance is a word that continues to hover uncomfortably on the WTO. Okonjo-Iweala knows this all too well. In February this year, during the WTO 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13), she admitted that the global body will always have its “naysayers and detractors.” For that reason, only success can change the tone about the WTO, both within and without. “We need to show the world that not only does the WTO underpin over three-quarters of global goods trade, it is also a forum where members deliver new benefits for people through trade,” she noted.

Though WTO’s relevance remains under constant scrutiny, the importance of the multilateral organisation in maintaining a semblance of order in global trade cannot be gainsaid. Indeed, in a world where rising protectionism, rogue trade wars and predatory practices are on the rise, the WTO remains the most impartial adjudicator. This arises from the fact that it represents 166 member countries that account for more than 98 percent of global trade valued at $32trn annually. To put it in context, it means that about $86bn of goods crosses borders every day.

At its base in Geneva, Switzerland, the global body provides a forum for members to negotiate trade agreements, enforce a network of existing treaties, settle disputes and monitor trade practices. The original and most prominent, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), was negotiated after World War II based on a US proposal for an international organisation that would negotiate and enforce trade law. The successor of GATT, WTO came into force in 1995 alongside the dispute settlement system. While the GATT regulated trade in goods and reduced tariffs and other barriers, the WTO also covers services and intellectual property.

Basket of achievements
Though the jury is still out on Okonjo-Iweala’s achievements so far, the overriding consensus is that the celebrated author of several books and champion of women’s empowerment has done a relatively good job under excruciating circumstances. During her tenure, the global trade environment has faced unprecedented challenges the ripple effects of which have meant the WTO cannot vacate its position of constantly being at a crossroads. When she took office, global trade was just starting to show signs of recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. At the peak of the pandemic in 2020, trade plunged by about $2.5trn, a nine percent decline compared with the level in 2019. Recovery has been swift and this year global goods trade is projected to post a 2.7 percent increase.

Apart from leading the WTO at a time of recovery from the pandemic, Okonjo-Iweala’s tenure has also been characterised by disruptions of global trade by geopolitical mayhem. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the worsening crisis in the Middle East, fears that China is planning to invade Taiwan, and the war in Sudan among others means that global trade continues to be impacted by disruptions that are beyond the WTO’s control.

We need to show the world that not only does the WTO underpin over three-quarters of global goods trade, it is also a forum where members deliver new benefits for people through trade

For the WTO, its purview of control is ensuring order in the global liberal trading system. Though created specifically to facilitate the flourish of private companies, the system’s seamless nature has been disjointed due to the invasion of state-owned enterprises, with China as the antagonising factor. Owing to this fact, it has been a tough period for Okonjo-Iweala in trying to ensure all countries remain committed to the idea of open markets and trade integration.

While countries like China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, South Africa and many others have open markets to thank for significantly contributing to their socio-economic transformation, the bug of protectionism is today spreading fast. Okonjo-Iweala reckons that protectionism, which largely undermines WTO rules, can only lead to fragmentation. “We are concerned about the emerging fragmentation that we see in the trade data. We are seeing that trade between like-minded blocks is growing faster than trade across such blocks,” she told the BBC earlier this year.

Inability to contain the spread of protectionism, coupled by concerns that the WTO rulebook has lost its powers in a changing trade environment that has also seen the proliferation of digital trade, has many questioning whether the WTO is still the global trade sheriff. Besides, many wonder whether the global club still has the wherewithal to spearhead predictable, stable, free, fair and open trade.

WTO has watched helplessly as the US and the European Union (EU) slap China’s electric vehicles with 100 percent and 38 percent tariffs, respectively. On its part, the EU cited “unfair subsidisation” in China that “is causing a threat of economic injury” to EU electric car makers for its decision. China, meanwhile, has retaliated by launching an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports. Obviously, the investigation is a ploy that is bound to end in new tariffs.

Weihuan Zhou, Associate Professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, tells World Finance that under the current structure, Okonjo-Iweala needs to be commended for ensuring the WTO maintains some sense of grip in shaping global trade. “She has done a fantastic job in maintaining the effective functioning and leading role of the WTO in addressing a raft of challenges during and after the Covid-19 pandemic,” he observes.

He adds that one of Okonjo-Iweala’s most creative contributions has been reshaping the thinking of the global trading system to one of ‘re-globalisation,’ which counteracts longstanding criticisms of globalisation and the rising trend of de-globalisation. The new thinking has been instrumental in the success of key negotiations. Most notable was the reaching of an agreement on fisheries subsidies in June 2022.

Described as a historic achievement, the agreement was a win for ocean sustainability. By prohibiting harmful fisheries subsidies, it is expected to protect the world’s fish stocks from depletion. A total of 86 WTO members have formally accepted the agreement that requires two-thirds of members to consent to be operational.

Under Okonjo-Iweala, substantive progress has also been achieved on e-commerce talks. Having been initiated in 2017 and formal negotiations commencing five years ago, by July this year a total of 91 nations participating in the talks had managed to achieve a stabilised text.

Once completed, the e-commerce agreement will be the basis for global rules on digital trade. Apart from benefiting consumers and businesses, especially macro, medium and small enterprises, it is expected to play a pivotal role in supporting global digital transformation.

Talks on the investment facilitation for development (IFD) agreement have also made progress. A substantive pact could significantly push foreign direct investments, particularly among emerging and developing nations. This is because it has the potential to improve the investment and business climate, thus making it easier for investors not only to invest but also to conduct day-to-day activities and expand operations with no obstacles. The fact that in June 2022 Okonjo-Iweala was able to facilitate an agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, allowing countries to suspend patent protections on Covid-19 vaccines thus boosting production in developing nations, increases confidence that a deal on IFD could be reached sooner than later.

Falling short where it matters
Okonjo-Iweala has reasons to feel elated for her achievements so far. However, two critical areas stain her otherwise stellar record. Granted, manoeuvring the gridlock on agriculture talks and dispute settlements reforms has proved difficult. Having inherited the murky swamp, Okonjo-Iweala risks joining a long list of WTO bosses who come and go without a breakthrough in agriculture.

In October, her frustrations were conspicuous. Following a meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee on agriculture, the most she could say was that she detected a “meeting of minds.” In essence, although there is a ray of light, the tunnel remains agonisingly long despite the world grappling with over $640bn in trade-distorting agricultural subsidies that shouldn’t be there. “I sense that there is a willingness to try to break the gridlock on agriculture and to try and move the process forward,” she noted.

The same misfortune shrouds dispute settlement reforms. Though Okonjo-Iweala continues to advance the idea that the reform of the system is a “collective desire of every member,” the US does not agree. In 2022, MC12 set a target of end of this year to have a fully and well-functioning system. This was reaffirmed by MC13 earlier this year. With mere weeks before year’s end, the target is proving to be a pipe dream. The main reason is the US has refused to support the reform proposals, particularly on the thorny appeal/review issues. “The main unfinished business on Okonjo-Iweala’s agenda is certainly the reform of the dispute settlement, which is still far from getting somewhere. Without achieving this reform, it is likely that the WTO will continue to lose relevance,” Crochet told World Finance.

Granted, the WTO is bound to remain as the backbone of the multilateral trading system. However, a growing number of experts are of the opinion that its continued legitimacy, credibility and efficacy require stronger leadership to reform the existing decision-making model based on consensus. “Creative approaches are needed to facilitate negotiations,” reckons Zhou. He adds that to ensure transparency, certainty and predictability in global trade, the global body must find ways of ensuring its rules and regulations remain sacrosanct.

Okonjo-Iweala has admitted the decision-making by consensus process is “frustrating,” and largely contributes to the snail pace of negotiations. However, it is necessary. This is because it accords the same power and voice to all members. Mongolia, with a population of 3.7 million and exports valued at $11.8bn, has the power to stop any agreement from being concluded, same as India with a population of 1.4 billion and exports valued at $452.6bn.

The fact that global trade blocks are crumbling means that Okonjo-Iweala will face a daunting task of rebuilding if she secures a second term. So far, she has not demonstrated any signs of the abrasiveness that can come in handy in resolving disputes and achieving breakthroughs in negotiations. This has earned her respect and prevented direct confrontations. However, when her tenure is finally documented in the annals of history, this might not count for much. What will count is her shrewdness in ensuring stability and order in the global trading systems.

At the heart of progress: Banorte’s role in Mexico’s growth

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Grupo Financiero Banorte has been following its own aspirational philosophy for over a century. Moment by moment, in each location and region of Mexico, with each generation, in the relevant changes of the country, it has helped people to take advantage of opportunities and overcome complex situations in all areas of their lives. It is with this character that we are today the strongest and largest Mexican financial group.

Our history is intertwined with that of Mexico. Every decision, every loan, every business supported, and every project financed leaves a footprint that impacts families, businesses and entire communities. Because when they prosper, Mexico prospers, and so does Banorte.

We understand that hidden opportunities are always present and Banorte knows how to take advantage of them. For this reason, it is not surprising that our origin is in the capital of the booming state of Nuevo León, in the north of the country, distinguished by its industrial vocation. We were created with the knowledge and ambition to meet the needs of Monterrey companies that today are a symbol of entrepreneurial spirit, innovation and resilience. Already at that time, the customer was at the centre of our nascent ambitions. On November 16, 1899, Banco Mercantil de Monterrey was founded, a local bank that years later would evolve into a regional bank.

Our next predecessor, Banco Regional del Norte, was created almost half a century later, in 1947. Both financial institutions merged in the 1980s to create Banco Mercantil del Norte, today known as Banorte, which through a strategy of investments, mergers and acquisitions achieved the diversification and strengthening of its banking platform with national coverage.

As a result, we integrated businesses that today allow us to offer the most diversified portfolio of financial services in the market: banking for individuals, companies of all sizes, and governments, as well as international banking, insurance, fund management, brokerage, and retirement savings, among others.

Banorte’s history is one of transformation and progress. We have evolved, modernised and embraced every innovation, always reinforcing our essence: customers at the centre of everything we do. This vision made us migrants of evolution: we adopt with agility and opportunity each technological transformation, which is why we are digital pioneers, offering financial products and services that respond to the needs of each of our customers.

Becoming the best financial group
Focusing on the recent stage of the group’s technological, cultural and business transformation means reiterating our founding principle, which is to have the customer at the centre of everything we do.

In 2014, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the organisation to identify areas of opportunity and define the path we should follow from now on. The goal was ambitious: to become the best financial group for our clients, investors and employees.

The goal was ambitious, to become the best financial group for our clients, investors and employees

In 2015, we launched the ‘Strategic Plan Vision 2020,’ setting out ambitious five-year goals in terms of profits, profitability and efficiency, but above all with the firm intention of making a difference in the customer experience. How did we achieve this? With talent, technology and innovation. First, we increased the physical and digital means for transactions, allowing customers the option of either accessing Banorte services in a branch, attended efficiently and expeditiously by an executive, or digitally – anywhere and at any time.

Thanks to these efforts, today we have an infrastructure that allows us to have an omnichannel approach to our customers, which translates into enhanced support and a closer relationship with all our users.

To provide this unique experience and exceed our clients’ expectations, we have had to take a collaborative approach, focusing on a continuous process of evolving from a bricks and mortar operation to a modern, digital enterprise. We have improved our branches through digitisation, making them increasingly efficient and functional, while freeing up executive capacity to provide a more focused and personalised experience for the customer, when needed.

In terms of the digitalisation efforts set out in our 20/20 vision, we have developed a central data repository to get to know our customers better; we have consolidated the customer experience through innovative techniques and customer data analysis, and have built layered, flexible, agile and responsive architecture to provide an unparalleled digital experience for our clients.

Our analytics team utilises machine learning and behavioural analysis to further personalise the services we provide, and we also use this analysis for fraud prevention by using predictive modelling.

All these changes and their respective results were achieved thanks to the work of the cells, multi-disciplinary and collaborative groups in which ideas come together and converge to generate projects that add value to the institution, employees, investors, society and, of course, our customers. This model continues to date and is a source of initiatives for the growth and consolidation of Grupo Financiero Banorte.

Banking in a digital world
In 2020, in the wake of the global pandemic, we reflected on the accelerated digital transformation that confinement brought about in society. The result was an ambitious strategy, the ‘Plan one, two, three,’ set for the period 2021 to 2023. The vision was renewed: to be the best financial group for our clients, investors, and employees, and an equally ambitious mission was redefined: to position ourselves as the number one in banking in a digital world, while maintaining leadership in profitability and sustainability.

To achieve this, we relied on these three plans. The first of these was aimed at providing a one-to-one seamless digital experience, integrating the full range of our products, reducing the processing time for these and improving the customer experience. We developed and released a new version of the Banorte Mobile app for the benefit of all our customers.

Our second plan for this period was to modernise our technological infrastructure to not only drive hyper-personalisation, but also to help us compete with challengers in the digital realm.

The third step in our strategy for this period was to launch a 100 percent digital bank, which we did in January 2024, when we launched Bineo. With this model we seek to share cost efficiencies with our customers through rewards programmes, points accumulation and commission benefits.

In this way, we remain more competitive than ever. Today Banorte is a digital bank with branches. All these actions have earned us national and international recognition, which materialised with the ‘Best Banking App,’ ‘Best Digital Consumer Bank’ and ‘Best Retail Bank’ in Mexico awards conferred by World Finance.

Making something extraordinary
This year, 2024, we celebrate our 125th anniversary, commemorating our history of effort, hard work, innovation, citizenship and social commitment. We know that people expect extraordinary actions and services from us. The actions taken over the last 20 years have positioned us as the Mexican financial group at the heart of the country.

We adapt, react nimbly, and anticipate customer needs to put the ‘extra’ in extraordinary

But now is not the time to rest on our laurels. We are currently assimilating the accelerated changes that mark the new era. To this end, we have continued on with our strategic plans, adding four, five and six on from the previous period. These plans represent a continuous process for us, but namely they are to: be the best experience in the market, provide the best customised offer on the market, and be the best business operation of the financial system.

In this way, we adapt, react nimbly, and anticipate customer needs to put the ‘extra’ in extraordinary. With the renewal of our strategy, we will give traction and rhythm to everything we have built. We will focus on returning to our essence as a financial institution, but equipped with technological infrastructure, innovation, talent and cell culture, multidisciplinary and collaborative teams focused on continuously improving processes and results, their ultimate goal being to offer the best customer experience.

Mexico is our home, and we will stay here. Our commitment to the country is unwavering, we honour the past and now our eyes are set on the future. Challenges await us and we are prepared to meet them. Together we will continue to do the ordinary in an extraordinary way! At Banorte, the next 125 years will once again be written hand in hand with Mexico.

Investing securely: A global commitment to trust and transparency

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As Garnet Trade, we have been operating in the global forex market since 2010. For the past 14 years, we have always aimed to provide our investors with secure and efficient investment services, along with premium customer service. As part of our journey, we continue to offer premium services to investors worldwide under the motto ‘Forex for All.’ To further this ambition, we now have a firm presence in Europe and North America, with offices in Macedonia and Canada. Additionally, we have an office in Sydney, Australia. While expanding globally, our foremost mission remains to provide secure investments for all our investors.

At Garnet Trade, ensuring the security of our investors’ transactions is our top priority under all circumstances. Our licences, which formalise our diligence and high standards in the industry, further reinforce this assurance. As an Australia-based institution, we hold a licence from ASIC (Australian Securities and Investments Commission), one of the most reliable and respected regulators in the world. The ASIC licence guarantees that Garnet Trade operates at the highest standards and offers a secure, transparent, and ethical trading environment to its investors. This licence also acts as a guarantee for the institution’s reliability and long-term sustainability in the industry.

Another important licence we hold comes from FINACOM (Financial Commission), an independent international regulator. This reputable organisation, with representatives in many countries, plays a crucial role in ensuring the security of our investors’ accounts. FINACOM’s compensation fund provides protection up to €20,000 in case of potential mishaps, offering an additional layer of security. This protection not only ensures financial safety but also helps our investors feel secure, knowing their rights are safeguarded against potential issues. Our collaboration with the Financial Commission underscores Garnet Trade’s commitment to customer satisfaction while reinforcing the importance we place on transparency and trust in our relationships with investors.

Security as a priority
Additionally, we indirectly protect our investors through our Mwali licence. Regular audits conducted by Mwali enhance account security and strengthen our commitment to financial transparency and regulatory compliance. The Mwali licence ensures that financial records are meticulously maintained, and necessary reports are submitted promptly, further reinforcing the robustness of our audit processes. This ongoing commitment to transparency and security is also reflected in how we manage and maintain investor satisfaction.

Investor satisfaction has always been a priority for Garnet Trade, and we strive to go beyond the guarantees provided by our licences to enhance this satisfaction. Our highly skilled and knowledgeable team plays a significant role in enhancing investor satisfaction through the services we offer. We assign expert financial advisors to support and guide our investors at every stage of their forex market journey. These advisors directly communicate with our investors during working hours, providing daily financial data and updates on the economic calendar. Our expert investment advisors share customised fundamental analyses tailored to investors’ needs, helping them better understand market conditions. Alongside these analyses, we also offer product-based technical analyses, providing the necessary information for our investors to make informed and strategic decisions. This comprehensive support system is further strengthened by training programmes designed for new investors.

For investors new to the global forex market, our experienced team provides comprehensive forex training. These training programmes aim to help investors understand market dynamics and develop effective trading strategies. Investors gain both theoretical knowledge and practical experience tailored to their individual needs. After completing these programmes, they are supported in gaining real-world experience in real market conditions. At Garnet Trade, another of our top priorities is to ensure that our investors have a successful investment journey by developing their knowledge and skills. Supporting investors through education is an integral part of our service approach, which is grounded in the philosophy of accessibility.

Comprehensive support
One of our core principles is accessibility. At Garnet Trade, we offer 24/7 live chat support to instantly respond to our investors’ needs. This service aims to provide immediate solutions to any challenges they may encounter in dynamic markets, ensuring a secure and seamless trading experience. This continuous and accessible support not only resolves issues but also creates a safe environment for our investors. Accessibility also extends to our digital platforms, which keep our investors informed.

One of the services we offer our investors is the Garnet Plus mobile application. This app, developed entirely by our institution, aims to provide financial information and support to our investors. In addition to offering insights about Garnet Trade’s product range and promotions, the mobile app provides insights into products not available in the forex market. Investors can view product-specific explanations and follow separate news feeds.

With the economic calendar within the app, they can monitor the market and access trend forecasts prepared with computer-based technical analyses. Garnet Plus is a critical resource for investors, both for gathering information and supporting investment decisions. Through the app, investors can easily watch educational videos developed by our institution and receive instant updates on the institution’s advantages and developments. This ease of access complements the wide range of instruments and services we offer.

At Garnet Trade, we offer our investors over 160 instruments spanning various asset classes, including indices, currency pairs, metals, energies, and cryptocurrencies.

Our product range continues to expand to meet investor demand and is enriched as part of our global expansion strategy. While offering global services, we aim to comply with local regulations and develop new partnerships to increase our international presence. Among our sponsorships are globally recognised brands such as SC Braga, MotoGP – Honda LCR, Galatasaray Women’s Volleyball Team, and AS Monaco Basketball Team. In the future, we plan to establish new partnerships and participate in social responsibility projects. This global expansion is also recognised through numerous awards and accolades.

Garnering respect
The numerous awards we have received from independent global organisations in finance and the forex industry have earned us recognition and respect worldwide, and we are proud to share these successes with our investors. As we celebrate these achievements, we continue to offer flexible solutions for investors with diverse needs.

Our expert investment advisors share customised fundamental analyses tailored to investors’ needs

Investors who are short on time or uncertain can use Garnet Trade’s Copy Trade system, where trades executed by master investors are automatically copied. Additionally, the Introducing Broker (IB) system allows IBs to refer new investors through a personal link and earn a percentage from the trades made by these referrals. These innovative tools, along with unique offerings such as Garnet Money, support investors’ strategies.

One of our other advantages is Garnet Money. This is an unwithdrawable bonus offered to support investor margins based on specific categories or campaigns. Along with offering unique trading solutions, Garnet Trade aims to make a positive contribution to the world through our sustainability initiatives.

Garnet Trade is committed to sustainability, adopting the ideology ‘There is no Planet B.’ We are aware of environmental crises such as resource depletion, climate change, and ecological imbalances, and this heightens our sense of responsibility. Protecting the future is crucial, as our existence depends on the health of the planet. While our motto is ‘Forex for All,’ our mission extends to protecting a livable world for future generations.

At Garnet Trade, we aim to create positive changes for our planet through future collaborations focused on social responsibility and environmental protection. We believe that everyone should embrace this responsibility and integrate sustainability into their lives. Because our future is in all of our hands.

Lessons from the Dominican Republic’s rising economy

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Impressive economic growth and increasing diversification plus an array of government-funded infrastructure developments is fuelling economic opportunity for investors in the Dominican Republic. A secret sauce, or a succession of sound policy-making supported by special economic zones and serious long-range planning?

Productivity is up. The implementation of many market-orientated reforms from the 1990s have matured and come good. For major banking players like Banreservas, higher foreign direct investment means more commercial and retail opportunities, strengthening its hand across digital banking and fintech.

This year’s re-election of President Luis Abinader with almost 60 percent of the vote reinforces the country’s economic stability narrative. Now, in a new interview for World Finance, Banreservas executive president Samuel Pereyra says that while the compliance and tech pressure is immense, the chance to meaningfully improve lives and develop new products is profitably paying off.

Between 2020 and 2023, Banreservas profits and total assets were sharply up, thanks to tourism, SME business and construction. How sustainable is this growth for the next three years?
I am optimistic about sustainable growth in our country’s key sectors, such as tourism, SMEs and construction. Tourism has diversified post-pandemic, attracting a broader audience with a lot of innovation going on. However, investing in infrastructure and training is crucial to maintain competitiveness. For SMEs, digitalisation and government initiatives to help financing will support our growth. We feel the construction sector is recovering due to housing and infrastructure demand, but adopting sustainable practices is crucial.

Overall, these sectors have great potential for growth in the next three years as policies that promote investment and sustainable development continue. Banreservas supports all these sectors for the greater well-being and prosperity of all Dominicans.

How long can a dual office set-up that blends digital and customer-facing operations remain before going 100 percent digital? Or will a part-physical commitment stay in place indefinitely?
In our experience a hybrid approach, blending digital operations with face-to-face interactions, is the right mix. In other words, dual offices provide flexibility, catering to customers preferring personalised service, especially for more complex financial matters.

The trend, yes, is towards more digitalisation. A dual set-up is sustainable if it is aligned with customer expectations. So I would say the future is definitely hybrid, focusing on digital while maintaining personalised service. The key really is agility in adapting to market demands.

How much of your growth hinges on ex-pat business and services, or Dominicans living abroad? How will this market grow sustainably over 2024 to 2030?
Dominicans abroad play a big role in driving our economy, both in local consumption and business growth. We think this market will grow sustainably between 2024 and 2030 due to digitalisation, facilitating quicker and more secure transactions, plus more interest generally in investing in the Dominican Republic. For us it is crucial to improve financial services for the diaspora, including strengthening representative offices, tailoring products, and offering personalised service. This will consolidate our relationships with Dominicans abroad, ensuring robust growth, we anticipate.

How much is the remittances market worth and how profitable is it?
The Dominican Republic’s remittance market was up 3.1 percent and hit $10.3bn in 2023, a record year. Remittances are crucial for families and to stimulate overall economic growth. For us, the sector’s profitability stems from money transfer services and complementary products – it is very competitive and that is a driver for more innovation across a lot of different services, putting the customer front and centre. The remittance market also impacts local socio-economic development by promoting consumption and investment in SMEs. Innovation and inclusion in this segment are crucial for future growth, a focus for Banreservas in the years ahead.

How many digital customers do you have – and how much will this grow by in the next 12 months, do you think?
Banreservas boasts 1.7 million active users across digital channels, processing 13 million transactions a month through our App Banreservas and TuBanco (web version). More digital advancements, like the new digital token, digital accounts and digital fixed term deposits, provide clients with convenient self-service options also. In the next 12 months, we anticipate a 40 percent increase in users, driven by tech improvements and new services. A continued focus on financial inclusion – this is very important for us – will contribute to the expanding digital user base.

In 2023 around 85 percent of transactions were digital. Where will this be by the end of 2025, do you think?
By 2025 digital transactions will likely become the norm, with significant growth in mobile payment platforms and digital wallets. We anticipate the proportion of digital transactions to increase beyond 85 percent, with services like loans and financial advice conducted digitally.

Emerging technologies like AI and blockchain will also enhance security and efficiency. Banks have to adapt by offering innovative solutions and prioritise a customer-centric experience, driving the shift towards a more digital economy.

In terms of digital services, does the bank subsidise the internet data consumption use of customers? If so, by how much?
We understand access to digital services is essential for our customers, especially in an environment where digitisation has become increasingly important. For this reason, since 2021, we have put in place ‘Data Patrocinada,’ where Banreservas covers the total cost of data consumption associated with the Banreservas App.

Users of the Banreservas App, for example, who have data services from telecommunications providers in the Dominican Republic, can make balance inquiries, pay bills and settle credit cards, as well as make other transactions, in an immediate and safe manner.

What digital niche markets are you looking at getting into in future?
We are probing several digital niche markets to drive growth and promote financial inclusion. Key areas include leveraging technology for cost-efficient, customer-orientated solutions, collaborating more with fintechs than in the past, and implementing digital financial education and inclusion platforms. There is a lot going on in this space.

Our ‘Bancarizar es Patria’ programme exemplifies our serious commitment to financial inclusion, we feel, offering few requirements and providing educational resources. By focusing on collaboration and innovation, we aim to adapt to our clients’ needs while fostering genuine social equity and the country’s broader development.

What about your digital security programme – where are the biggest risks coming from, and how will your clients be protected from them?
Security is a huge priority for us, from prevention and detection to cyber. We absolutely prioritise securing our technological infrastructure and are actively educating our customers about best security practices. We have built our own Cybersecurity Operations Centre (SOC) equipped with state-of-the-art technology and certified staff for 24/7 monitoring and response. Also, our blog, ‘Your Security,’ provides customers with timely information for asset protection. We have combined advanced technology, ongoing education plus a very agile threat response. We feel we have created a very secure environment for our clients – we continue to work very hard here.

What proportion of your digital business is from low-income customers or the financially excluded? And will this ratio rise in the next 12 months – if so, by how much?
More than 50 percent of our digital customers are from low-income or financially excluded segments. We expect this to grow in the next 12 months as we expand our offer, targeting underserved communities to drive financial inclusion – for as many of our people as possible. Our average month-over-month growth in digital savings account openings exceeds 20 percent.

I would say the future is definitely hybrid, focusing on digital while maintaining personalised service

Also, our social responsibility programme – we take this very seriously indeed – aligns with the National Development Strategy, promoting socio-economic development through initiatives in education, financial inclusion, entrepreneurship, and co-operative development. The ‘Reservas del Futuro’ scholarship programme supports outstanding students, while the Banreservas Cultural Centre fosters culture and education.

How does it integrate with your social responsibility programme more widely?
Banreservas’ social responsibility programme integrates closely with our overall strategy by supporting vulnerable communities through initiatives in education, financial inclusion, entrepreneurship and cultural development. Our ‘Reservas del Futuro’ scholarship programme benefits outstanding students, while the Banreservas Cultural Centre consistently fosters arts and culture.

We also have Voluntariado Banreservas, our social arm, working to cut the needs of the less fortunate sectors of the country, building a world of possibilities and hope that generates a positive impact on the future of our nation.

We always aim to support national talent, promote cultural growth, and provide opportunities for artists to connect with diverse audiences. By this we contribute meaningfully to the social and cultural development of the Dominican Republic, aligning ourselves with the National Development Strategy.

How does your digital coin programme work – how challenging has it been to develop?
Currently, this type of currency is not regulated by the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic, nor does it have the authorisation of the Monetary Board for its issuance and use as a means of payment for any transactions. This presents significant challenges that limit our ability to offer cryptocurrency-related products in a safe and effective manner.

While we are observing trends in the cryptocurrency market and its evolution, our primary focus remains on strengthening our traditional services with new tech, ensuring the security of our services while maintaining the trust and satisfaction of our customers.

How do you differentiate digital accounts with traditional deposit accounts, characterised by fixed terms and interest rates? Do digital products offer a better deal?
To encourage digital adoption with our digital savings account, we have implemented a new strategy that offers a differentiated value proposition compared to traditional savings accounts. We now have a defined fee structure with highly valued benefits for both existing and new customers, who can connect with the bank 100 percent digitally without a minimum opening deposit requirement. Also, digital accounts are exempt from minimum balance charges, making them very attractive to customers.

What is your risk management approach to currency risk – are you increasingly blending your USD exposure with CNY, for example?
Our risk management approach focuses on neutral or long positions in USD and EUR to meet market demands. We have a robust structure for identifying, measuring, monitoring, and communicating risks, integrating three lines of defence. We deploy Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to measure exposure to exchange rate risks, and our Risk Appetite Statement defines tolerance and capacity levels. Monitoring indicators, exposure limits, and alert levels are tracked and reported to decision-making bodies. This is a comprehensive as well as responsible risk management stance, we feel.

In your judgement, what condition is the Dominican Republic economy in at the moment – and how is it positioned for 2025?
The Dominican Republic’s economy is growing, with positive signs in sectors like tourism, construction and SMEs. GDP growth is robust, and foreign investments, exports and remittances are vital supporting pillars here. It really is encouraging. But inflation and public debt management are challenges that do need prudent fiscal and monetary policies to maintain stability and confidence.

Looking ahead to 2025, optimism is very much warranted, I feel, as projections now very much show a strengthening of major sectors and economic diversification. Aligning with global trends like sustainability and financial inclusion will enhance our country’s competitiveness. By addressing challenges, the Dominican Republic can more reliably seize incoming opportunities. We have a lot to be proud of and excited about.

What structures are in place to balance the bank’s role as a government-owned entity with its commercial banking operations?
We balance the state-owned entity status with commercial operations via a strong corporate governance structure. We have an autonomous board of directors with public and private sector experience ensuring decisions are always based on efficiency and profitability. Also, we have specialised committees which oversee key areas, balancing our public and commercial objectives.

We supply full transparency, disclosing financial reports and undergoing rigorous audits. There are strict policies around potential conflicts of interest, maintaining our independence and robustness in management while safeguarding market competitiveness. We feel we have got the mix right.

How does Banreservas manage potential conflicts of interest given its ties to government?
Banreservas manages potential conflicts of interest through a series of policies and practices designed to ensure transparency and integrity in our operations. Firstly, there is a governance framework that includes a robust code of ethics, which establishes clear guidelines for all our employees and executives regarding decision-making. Additionally, we maintain a clear separation between our banking functions and government decisions, allowing us to operate independently.

We contribute meaningfully to the social and cultural development of the Dominican Republic

We also conduct regular internal audits and external reviews to ensure compliance with established regulations and standards. This not only reinforces our transparency but builds trust among our customers and partners. Finally, we promote a culture of reporting situations that may represent a conflict of interest, ensuring the right measures are taken to address them promptly and effectively. Through these efforts, we aim to operate with the utmost responsibility and ethics in our actions.

What banking innovations can you reveal for 2025 and beyond?
In 2024, Banreservas made substantial strides in innovation. Our 2025 goal is to solidify our market leadership in the Dominican Republic and our international offices. Our digital transformation journey will persist, ensuring we remain reliable, efficient, agile and digitally driven without compromising our human touch. So we will be a more international, efficient, customer-centric service institution preparing ourselves for a dynamic, accessible future that’s genuinely inclusive for every Dominican wherever they are. We think that is very exciting.

Uruguay is experiencing an economic boom

Posted on by itsupport

Between the Uruguayan countryside and the South Atlantic Ocean lies Punta del Este, a vibrant coastal city unlike any other. Cosmopolitan culture, gorgeous beaches, vast nature preserves, a progressive and safe community and a robust economy close to the capital, Montevideo. Punta del Este is the perfect place at the heart of Latin America’s most favourable tax haven – and the world is catching on.

No longer just a second-home market for high-net-worth Brazilians and Argentinians, Punta del Este is seeing a swell of Americans and Europeans looking for a place to activate their wealth, for a ‘plan B,’ or a geopolitical hedge in an uncertain world. The Uruguayan government makes it easy and attractive. Expats can claim tax residency with just 60 days in Uruguay if they purchase property worth $480,000, compared to 183 days in Florida. If you make a $2.6m investment then there is no residency requirement at all. The payoffs are immense: no taxes on foreign investment income for 11 years. And there are amazing opportunities to take advantage of the favourable tax climate, from tech to real estate.

Uruguay’s economy is at the beginning of a boom. It is the third-largest software exporter per capita in the world. Thousands of start-ups have recently launched. Major VCs like Andreessen Horowitz are investing billions. Google has invested $850m in a new data centre in Montevideo, where IBM and Microsoft have also set up offices. Netflix is doubling down with film production. Momentum is building in the sustainable agricultural sector as well. This is just the tip of the iceberg.

All of these economic conditions, and more, are simultaneously putting Punta del Este on the map for discerning real estate audiences. And there is but one address on their mind: Fasano Las Piedras.

At the heart of this iconic destination is a hotel designed by Pritzker Prize-winning architect Isay Weinfeld. Fasano Las Piedras also has a private airport, five restaurants, an Arnold Palmer golf course, tennis courts, an exquisite spa, organic gardens, private beach access, a world-famous equestrian centre, a polo field signed by Nacho Figueras, and now an exclusive collection of branded residences – private homes set within verdant hills, rolling along the coastal landscape.

Luxury real estate
For the homes, the brilliant architect Carolina Proto of Estudio Obra Prima has crafted four distinct design concepts, ranging from one- to nine-bedrooms and constructed on three- to 15-acre parcels. Expanding on Weinfeld’s vision for the first phase of Fasano Las Piedras, Proto is now introducing the region’s most exquisite private homes.

The Country Residence is 6,500 square feet, including five suites, a staff room, a home office and a large swimming pool with an outdoor dining area.

Uruguay’s economy is at the beginning of a boom

The Polo House, designed in consultation with Nacho Figueras and positioned alongside the development’s world-renowned polo field and golf course, is available in two configurations: a 4,700-square-foot, three-suite residence and a 6,500-square-foot, five-suite residence, both featuring a staff room and a sweeping wrap-around terrace with a custom parrilla dining and barbecue pit and a large private pool.

The Farm House is inspired by traditional Uruguayan country estates, spanning 17,000 square feet with seven suites, two staff rooms and a swimming pool. Any four of these custom-built, turn-key homes can be constructed on a range of lots sized from one to 15 acres.

These residences were conceived for today’s global citizens who prioritise ease, who require discretion and the highest level of service, who desire more than a tax haven; they want the best quality of life. Buyers can customise the size and design of their home to fit their unique lifestyle.

In a serene location at the epicentre of Uruguay’s economic boom, Fasano Las Piedras is the most compelling branded residential offering in Latin America right now. With prices starting at around $2.6m, it is still a value play compared to other branded destinations in Mexico and Costa Rica, none of which compare in tax favourability.

As Douglas Elliman-Knight Frank’s global expert on branded residences, I am thrilled to represent Fasano Las Piedras. Please see fasanolaspiedras.erinboissonaries.com for further information.