With Japan’s energy market still reeling from the 2011 Fukushima crisis and the ensuing nuclear retreat, policymakers are looking to arrest the country’s reliance on imports by way of an unlikely saviour. Enter hydrogen: once a symbol of the country’s military surrender, the energy source is fast-becoming a vital means by which Japan is to haul its way out of a seemingly inescapable hole.
The country lost a third of its generating capacity when policy makers opted to flick the switch on nuclear, and without an immediate fix to fill the void, Japan is nearing on an energy crisis. Although the national economy sits third in the world rankings, its indigenous energy resources number in the few, and only by pumping billions into fuel imports has the country managed to keep the lights on. The same cannot be said for air conditioning, however, and reports circulated last summer that claimed those working in central government offices were forced to endure 30oC-plus temperatures with little more than electric fans.
The costs associated with building a formidable hydrogen energy infrastructure are huge, and the price of a single hydrogen station numbers somewhere in the region of JPY 400m-500m
Offering an indication of what Japan’s energy future might look like, the ruling powers have been forced to concede that without reverting back to nuclear or seeking help elsewhere, its trade deficit will reap long-term damage on the economy. With imports weighing heavy on the country’s books and the spectre of Fukushima still looming large over the country, it’s clear that the answer must come from within and from a source other than nuclear.
Conserving with hydrogen
Steps taken by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2013 to establish a Council for a Strategy for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells set the wheels in motion for what the same organisation would later call the ‘hydrogen society’. Published in June of last year, this Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells outlined the significance of realising a hydrogen society and the benefits this might bring in terms of conservation, security, environmental protection and regional growth. ‘To realise a hydrogen society, related systems will be formulated on a large scale, which may be accompanied by changes in the current social structure, and long-term, continuous measures for realising such a society will be taken’, reads the report. ‘In addition, the imbalance between supply and demand issues will be resolved, while academia, government and industry will collaborate to proactively engage in measures for utilising hydrogen.’
The report delves into the potential of hydrogen as a core component of Japan’s future energy mix, and although the document is among the most significant actions taken on the subject so far, it is by no means the first or the last on the road to realising this ambition. The government’s changed stance – backing hydrogen as a viable energy alternative – represents a significant departure point for a national energy policy that has for too long held nuclear on high as the country’s go-to energy source.
Japan’s nuclear retreat has also brought with it certain repercussions for the environment, and, in choosing to ship fossil fuels from abroad in place of nuclear, carbon emissions have embarked on a steep upwards curve. Whereas the country’s dependency on oil and gas pre-Fukushima sat somewhere in the region of 60 percent, that same rate is today closer to 90. The importance of hydrogen in supplementing the country’s inadequate energy supply and in mitigating climate change, therefore, mustn’t be understated, and Japan is taking major strides to expand upon its leadership in the sector.
Experts at the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation (NEDO) asserted recently that hydrogen could soon constitute approximately 10 percent of Japan’s generating capacity. By isolating the chemical element, hydrogen can generate electricity through “steam reforming”, though much of the focus so far has fallen on the role of fuel cells.
Assuming that the country continues to build on the progress made so far on this front, the hydrogen market could clock up a total market worth of JPY 1trn ($8.43bn) before 2030 and JPY 8trn ($67.45bn) before 2050. “Hydrogen, which can achieve high energy efficiency, low environmental burden and capability for emergency use, provided appropriate usage, is expected to play a central role as a secondary energy source”, according to a recent government energy policy report.
Whether the introduction of hydrogen is financially viable is an entirely separate question altogether, and one that relies primarily on government-given emissions targets and the population’s willingness to climb aboard yet another energy revolution. “In terms of hydrogen per se, one of the biggest challenges is infrastructure.
“Hydrogen is voluminous and so less efficient to store than natural gas and oil”, says Yoshiaki Shibata, Senior Researcher for the Institute of Energy Economics in Japan. “Major economies have already built a reliable energy infrastructure network and at no small cost. If hydrogen is to be brought into the existing network, this may reduce the need for investment. However, if hydrogen replaces the existing network, we have to be careful in terms of the social cost.”
The costs associated with building a formidable hydrogen energy infrastructure are huge, and the price of a single hydrogen station numbers somewhere in the region of JPY 400-500m (around $3-4m). As a means for comparison, a charging station for electric-powered vehicles comes to the much lesser sum of JPY 10m ($84,303). Still, the government has set out an ambition to build 100 hydrogen stations before March 2016 and have 1,000 in operation by 2025.
Building together
The administration’s support for the resource applies also to the commercialisation of fuel cells, and, according to last year’s strategic road map, recent developments on this front mean that this year could mark the beginning of a new era for hydrogen energy.
This is assuming however, that any hurdles in the coming years will be easily cleared and that domestic enterprises will lend their unblinking support to the building of Japan’s hydrogen society. The ambition has been handed an added ounce of credibility of late, when in January Toyota announced that it would be opening up its hydrogen patents and, in doing so, shift development up a gear or two. “At Toyota, we believe that when good ideas are shared, great things can happen”, said Bob Carter, Senior Vice President of Automotive Operations at Toyota Motor Sales in a company blog post. “By eliminating traditional corporate boundaries, we can speed the development of new technologies and move into the future of mobility more quickly, effectively and economically.”
In making over 5,600 fuel cell-related patents available, Toyota has set the wheels in motion for hydrogen-powered vehicles to make it to market quicker. The participation of the auto industry is of particular importance to Japan, where Toyota, Honda and Nissan are key contributors to the national economy and where the industry together accounts for 10 percent of the national workforce and 20 percent of exports, according to NEDO.
“The first generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, launched between 2015 and 2020, will be critical, requiring a concerted effort and unconventional collaboration between automakers, government regulators, academia and energy providers”, according to Toyota’s Carter. And with the first model scheduled to launch commercially this year, the success or failure of the emissions-free, four-door Toyota Mirai will determine how much mileage there is in the fuel cell vehicle (FCV) market.
The potential of hydrogen energy has fast become a much-talked about phenomenon in recent years, and the steps taken thus far to ensure the technology is both affordable and efficient for consumers have been significant. However, for those living in Japan, there is an uneasy feeling that these promises of an up-and-coming energy revolution have been made before, and with disastrous consequences.
Although the safety concerns associated with hydrogen are distinctly less than those to do with nuclear, there is a lingering air of mistrust among the Japanese public, who are less than convinced by the government’s credibility in launching a hydrogen society. “The technologies are developing very fast and people can use hydrogen safely”, says Shibata. However, the mere fact that hydrogen is explosive when in contact with oxygen is enough to rattle a public for whom safety is paramount when it comes to energy-related matters.
“People usually have an image of hydrogen in their heads that it easily explodes. But people can use hydrogen energy safely as long as they know how to manage it, same as gasoline”, said Mio Matsumoto of NEDO’s new energy technology department. “NEDO is acting to increase how socially acceptable it is for people to use hydrogen energy safely and, of course, to develop the technology for it.”
The coming months and years, therefore, will be decisive in demonstrating to the Japanese population that the transition to hydrogen does not carry with it the same risks as nuclear. Then and only then will the issue of cost competitiveness and efficiency determine how big a part the energy source will play in Japan’s future.
