Iran sanctions – will Israel be the final loser?

As America and Iran come closer to reaching a nuclear deal, World Finance examines who the losers and winners of this may be

November 7, 2014
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Transcript

Iran’s foreign minister will meet the European Union foreign policy chief and US Secretary of State John Kerry in the capital of Oman on the 9th and 10th of November, aiming to reach a nuclear deal. Will their efforts be successful? In part three of our four-part series on Iran, we talk to Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, about what the likely outcome of the meeting will be.

World Finance: Well Trita, what is hoped to come out of these talks, and what’s the likely result?
Trita Parsi: These are preparatory meetings for the final meeting that will take place in Vienna about a week before the deadline of November 24. The meetings in Oman are very key because those are bilateral meetings, just between the United States and Iran. They used to be secret, but they are now in the open. But they’re very critical, because at the end of the day this conflict is primarily an American Iranian conflict. Obviously other countries are a concern, they have stakes in this, but the root of the problem lies between the United States and Iran. The fact that the US and Iran are in a position now to be able to bilaterally talk to each other, that is essentially become normalised that they talk to each other, is a very significant step towards being able to resolve this conflict.

I think both the United States and Iran have shown unprecedented sincerity

World Finance: So how serious is Iran on reaching a nuclear deal?
Trita Parsi: I think both the United States and Iran have shown unprecedented sincerity. Both sides clearly want to find a way to reach a deal. It doesn’t mean that they will accept any deal, it doesn’t mean that they’re not bargaining hard. In fact, both sides are bargaining very very hard right now, but it’s clear that this is very different from previous round and previous attempts at diplomacy, because the political will is at a level we’ve never seen before.

World Finance: And who will be the winners, and who will be the losers if a deal’s reached?
Trita Parsi: I think essentially everyone will be a winner if there’s a deal. Some of the countries that will perceive this at least tactically as a loss may be the Netanyahu government in Israel, as well as the kingdom in Saudi Arabia, and this is for various reasons. The Israelis are concerned that the deal will leave Iran with a latent nuclear capability that will then unleash Iran from these sanctions and as a result Iran will be able to change the balance of power in the region, because it is a huge country with a tremendous amount of potential. It’s already ascending, and it would further ascend without the US trying to contain it. The Saudis are concerned, regardless of the details of the deal, that this will indicate a shift in the American tilt in the region, and that this will potentially jeopardise the commitment of the United States to the security of Saudi Arabia, and that by resolving tensions between the United States and Iran, the US will shift its position, it will no longer be in need of Israel and Saudi Arabia to the same extent that it is today.

World Finance: Trita, thank you.